BengalRugby Posted May 28, 2015 Report Share Posted May 28, 2015 Reposting soma analysis I did last year on Dalton and shared on the Bengals.com board. Figured it was a slow time, so this might be interesting to some. I plan on doing part 2 based on the 2014 data when I get some more time, along with additional game by game stuff. No promises on when that will occur though, until then... What goes into making a top QB has been a constant debate on internet message boards. Therefore to somewhat settle the issue, at least for a few hours, I decided to build a database using criteria voiced by my fellow fans. The plan was to use the data to find out what traits are indicative of QB’s who win in the playoffs as well as reveal the stats that are correlated to the top QB’s in the NFL. Then the same could be done of the worst QB’s and again find the correlated statistical performances. The intent was to, in the end, use the data to frame where Dalton truly stands among his NFL peers. For the study, the top 40 QB’s, based on passing yards were used. Mike Flynn was omitted due to playing in multiple systems/teams, with Brian Hoyer was added due to his starting position on the Browns and Michael Vick due to his unique abilities. The data collected was done primarily through ESPN, but other free sites were used as well for other categories, like redzone TD percentage and redzone QB rating. This could be a limitation as the ratings were done by team, not individual QB performance. Another limitation is the team aspect of breaking down the targeting of players. The targeting of the #1 WR, other WR’s, TE’s, and RB’s was done using team stats, instead of breaking down individual games to find the exact data. Thus a team like the Browns who had three different QB’s over the course of the season would result in all three having the same redzone QB rating, redzone TD rating, and receiver targeting percentages. IBM SPSS Statistics 20 was used for data analysis. First for the ANOVA to examine what traits (dependent variables) were correlated with the factor of playoffs last season (indicated by a p-value less than 0.05). Next a binary logistic regression was used with the elite QB status being the dependent variable and the categories the covariates to see what was correlated with being a top QB. Manning, Brees, and Rivers were used as the top QB’s from last season, with correlations being evidenced again by a p-value less than 0.05. Later tonight or tomorrow I will use the reported data to detail where Andy Dalton stacks up against the numbers absent the subjective lean expressed in many threads. The ANOVA contained 39 categories, 38 being dependent variables and 1 being the factor of interest, playoff wins. Playoff wins were strongly correlated with total completions (0.024), total yards (0.011), qb rating (0.025), yards per game (0.030), and td % (0.031). Oddly, it was not correlated to INT’s thrown (0.946), sacks (0.506), TD to INT ratio (0.824), rushign TD’s (0.699), or redzone QB rating (0.246). Winning in the post season was correlated to QB rating against the blitz (0.043), total season winning percentage (0.015), and % RB targets (0.014). The absolute strongest correlations were having a SB ring (0.008), total TD’s (0.001), and regular season wins (p-value less than 0.001). Using the binary logistic regression, the top QB’s (Manning, Brees, and Rivers) were set as the dependent (designated as 1) to compare to the remaining 38 QB’s (designated a s 2) utilizing the other 38 categories as covariates. This was done to find the categories associated with the top QB’s. I am happy to re-run the analysis if anyone is concerned that these 3 should not be used to set the bar, and will post the charted data sans analysis. Getting sacked and throwing INT’s were not factors, nor were rushing TD’s, however yards per rush (0.01) was significant. Redzone QB rating was highly significant (0.002), but redzone TD % just missed the line for significance (0.069). QB rating when trailing (0.004) and when tied (0.011) were significant, as was QB rating when trailing 1 to 8 points (0.007) as well as QB rating against the blitz (0.01). Playoff wins were more significant than SB rings (0.004 vs 0.018). Finally, Percentage of passes to the RB’s was significant as well (0.036). I hope you all enjoy the breakdown, and I will post additional analysis tonight citing Daltons ranking among the 41 QB’s. In addition, I can run any other additional analysis requested using this nifty QB database at my disposal. I believe this gives us fans a better idea of what is needed to improve the Bengals chances of winning in the post season, and what Dalton will need to do to step his game more in that direction. In the ANOVA, 10 of the 38 statistical categories were significantly correlated to post season wins. Below is a listing of the categories, along with their p-values and then where Andy Dalton stands in that category compared to the other 40 QB’s in the study. They will go from the weakest (but still significant) to the strongest, thus descending p-values. TD % (p-value = 0.031) - This makes sense, as John Madden was fond of saying, the team that scores the most points wins. Andy Dalton is #9 in passing TD% (.056) right between McCown at #8 (.058) and Cutler at #10 (.054) Yards per Game (p-value = 0.031) - Again, ranking up the yardage makes sense for winning in the playoffs. Dalton ranks at #8 with 268 yards per game. Between Brady at #7 and Palmer at #9. QB Rating (p-value = 0.025) - I guess the QB rating system is not complete garbage, even if it may need some tweaking.Dalton comes in tied at #15 (88.8) with Cam Newton. Alex Smith is #14 and Brady just below at #17. Completions (p-value = 0.024) - Have to get the ball in someones hands to make something happen. Dalton is #8 with 363 completions. Stafford is # 7 with 371 and Palmer is tied with Flacco at #9 with 362. Total Season win % (p-value = 0.015) - The more a team wins, obviously, the better they do. Dalton comes in at #13 (0.64706) between a 4-way tie of Brees, Luck, Rodgers, and Locker (0.66667) above and Palmer again below (0.625). RB target % (p-value = 0.014) - This is a surprising one, and an area I expect the Bengals to excel, with Giovani looking for more touches and the offense leaning more on the backs. Currently, Dalton is #34 in RB targeting percentage (0.13823). The only QB’s with a lower percentage, in order, are Hoyer, Cassel, Ponder, Locker, Fitzpatrick, Tannehill, and Robert Griffin III. It is a significant area that could be greatly improved with relative ease, and should make a huge impact on the Bengals season. They have a lot of backs with solid hands. Yards (p-value = 0.011) - If you get more yards out of your QB, all things being equal, you’ll do better. Dalton comes in at #7 here (4293), with Brady being above (4343) and Palmer below (4274) in the rankings. SB Ring (p-value = 0.008) - Nothing he can do but win one of these. The good news is that if it happens, it seems those teams tend to keep making a splash in the playoffs. TD’s (p-value = 0.001) - Throw more TD’s and your team has a btter shot of winning in the post season. Dalton is ranked #3 (33) below #2 Drew Brees (39) and #4 Phillip Rivers (32). Regular Season Wins (p-value < 0.001) - Yep, it is as easy as that. The teams that win the most in the regular season have the highest correlation to winning in the post season. Here Dalton is tied at #5 with Brees, Luck, and Alex Smith. Makes sense when you think about it, the most complete team is normally the one that will win the most, and thus has the best odds for post season success. The 13 on the Bengals number 14... In the binary logistic regression, Peytom Manning, Drew Brees, and Phillip Rivers were used as the “elite” category QB’s, and the rest of the field was used as the “non-elite.” The results tell us what traits they possess compared to other QB. The information will be stated along with Dalton’s position in the category, and some additional commentary as to the relevance. The fields will be listed along with the p-values, going from least to most relevant. The lower the p-value, the stronger the relationship between a statistical category and elite QB play. The standard here was made more conservative, going from 0.05 to a mark of 0.01, thus giving a stronger correlation. 13 - Yards per rush (p-value = 0.010) - This is actually the opposite of what one might expect. The top QB’s had the lowest yards per rush last season. QB’s that run for big yards have a lot of flash and possibly fantasy value, but here a higher average was indicative of non-elite status. Dalton was ranked #27 with a 3.0 yards per carry average. 12 - QB Rating Against the Blitz (p-value = 0.010) - This is a no brainer, as if a QB crumples under pressure, the team will not get it done. Top QB’s exploit blitzes and last year Dalton had a lot of quick releases. Last season, Dalton was ranked #10 in QB rating against the blitz (96.4), just below #9 Cassel (100.3) and above Kellen Clemons #11 (95.8), and Tom Brady #12 (95.1). 11 - QB Rating By Point Difference, Losing by 1 to 8 Points (p-value = 0.007) - Top QB’s get it done when trailing, and the p-value speaks to the strength of that association. Dalton was #30 out of the 41 ranked QB in this category with a QB rating of 78.3. Clearly, this is an area where he could vastly improve, and will warrant Hue’s attention. 10 - Completions (p-value = 0.004) - If your players make more catches, it makes sense that the QB will appear better. Dalton was ranked #8 here. 9 - Playoff wins (p-value = 0.004) - Good QB’s help their team win in the post season.Dalton has yet to do that, putting down stinkers in every appearance to date. He was tied at #8 with the majority of the teams missing out on past season wins last season. 8 - QB Rating By Point Difference, When Trailing (p-value = 0.004) - If the team is losing, a top QB can step up and help bring the team to victory. Hard to have a good QB rating here when the your team is behind the eight-ball and the defense can tee off. Dalton came in at #26 (81.0), just behind RG3 (81.1) and ahead of #27 EJ Manuel (80.5). Again, hopefully Hue will use the TE’s or screen passes to Gio/Hill to improve these numbers in the upcoming season to bolster Dalton’s performance. 7 - TD % (p-value = 0.003) - The higher the TD percentage of your QB, the mor highly he is regarded in the NFL. Dalton comes in at #9 (0.056), between Romo at #8 (0.058) and Cutler at #10 (0.054). 6 - Passing Yards (p-value = 0.002) - It’s a passing league and the gunslingers are getting all the attention. Dalton is #7, below Brady #6, and above Palmer #8. 5 - Redzone QB Rating (p-value = 0.002) - If the QB plays it smart, making good decisions in the redzone, then the team will come away with more points. Dalton was on the lower end at #22 (91.6), just below Russell Wilson (92.2) and above Mike Glennon at #23 (90.7), and the three-way tie for # 24 of Wheedon, Hoyer, and Bengals own Jason Campbell (90.2). Using the TE’s and throwing to the backs more would go a long way towards improving these numbers for Andy. 4 - QB Rating (p-value = 0.001) - Makes sense again. All things being equal, the higher the QB rating, the more likily your QB is to be considered among the elite. Dalton was tied at #15 (88.8) with Cam Newton. 3 - Passing TD’s (p-value = less than 0.001) - Pass for more TD’s and a QB’s value goes up. Not really rocket science here. Dalton was #3 (33) last season, with Breees at #2 (39) and Rivers at #4 (32). Hard to say if this number will go up or down with Hue, but I would think it would drop a little. More use of the backs, and a decrease in INT’s would be a great benefit to the team, though it may not result in improved passing TD numbers. 2 - Passing Yards per Game (p-value = less than 0.001) - Similar to before, the QB who flings the ball around for more yardage is perceived in a greater light. Dalton is #7, below #6 Brady and above #7 Palmer. 1 - Completion % (p-value = less than 0.001) - Elite QB’s are accurate passers. Dalton was #15 (0.619%), below #14 Fitzpatrick (0.620) and above #16 Cam Newton (0.617). One has to wonder if it has to do with Andy trying to shoehorn passes in to Green (Dalton was #3 in % targets to the #1 WR, behind Kaepernick #1, and Glennon #2), his lower effectiveness in using 2-TE sets, or #34 ranking in % targets to RB’s. Here are the rankings based on the 2013 elite QB criteria, 1 - Peyton Manning QB 2 - Drew Brees, QB 3 - Philip Rivers, QB 4 - Tony Romo, QB 5 - Ben Roethlisberger, QB 6 - Aaron Rodgers, QB 7 - Nick Foles, QB 8 - Matthew Stafford, QB 9 - Matt Ryan, QB 10 - Andy Dalton, QB 11 - Tom Brady, QB 12 - Josh McCown, QB 13 - Carson Palmer, QB 14 - Russell Wilson, QB 15 - Sam Bradford, QB 16 - Jay Cutler, QB 17 - Ryan Tannehill, QB 18 - Alex Smith, QB 19 - Colin Kaepernick, QB 20 - Andrew Luck, QB 21 - Mike Glennon, QB 22 - Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB 23 - Cam Newton, QB 24 - Brian Hoyer QB 25 - Jake Locker, QB 26 - Robert Griffin, QB 27 - EJ Manuel, QB 28 - Joe Flacco, QB 29 - Matt Cassel, QB 30 - Matt McGloin, QB 31 - Chad Henne, QB 32 - Eli Manning, QB 33 - Matt Schaub, QB 34 - Christian Ponder, QB 35 - Kellen Clemens, QB 36 - Jason Campbell, QB 37 - Michael Vick, QB 38 - Brandon Weeden, QB 39 - Case Keenum, QB 40 - Geno Smith, QB 41 - Terrelle Pryor, QB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|SF2| Posted May 28, 2015 Report Share Posted May 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khatmandude Posted May 28, 2015 Report Share Posted May 28, 2015 Hey Tom Brady....who gives a shit about your SuperBowl ring(s), nevermind some consider Brady to be the best QB of all time....Dalton threw for more TDs in 2013! Take that!! Throwing 37 times a game on avg, Dalton was able to accomplish this feat that his supporters will still be referencing in 2019...."Well, he shit his pants yet again, is 0-9 in the playoffs with 1 TD and 37 INTs, 14 fumbles....one of which was caused by buffoonery....but remember back in 2013 when he threw 33TDs? Take THAT Tom Brady (who is by now inducted in HoF)". :265: :suicide: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Alice Posted May 28, 2015 Report Share Posted May 28, 2015 That's an amazing amount of detail. Nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HairOnFire Posted May 28, 2015 Report Share Posted May 28, 2015 That's an amazing amount of detail. Nice work. I can't wait to Khat respond to it point by point in equally rich detail.. Edit: Oh, I see he just wrote something stupid about Dalton shitting his pants in 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COB Posted May 28, 2015 Report Share Posted May 28, 2015 Yep, we'll always have 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|SF2| Posted May 28, 2015 Report Share Posted May 28, 2015 Yep, we'll always have 2013. Here's looking at you kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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