Path to the Super Bowl: Draft or Free Agency?

[Bengals1181]

Every off-season, teams strive to find those missing pieces that will put them at the top of the NFL the upcoming year. Whether it is through the draft, trade, or free agency acquisitions, each plays an important part in the building of a Super Bowl winner. Conventional wisdom says championship teams are built through the draft, and there is no doubt it is the most critical of the three. The draft is where teams get young, hungry players and it is where the tone for the success or failure of a franchise is set. Although it is difficult to measure with any precise accuracy how much each category contributes to a roster’s prosperity, how important is the draft versus free agency when it comes to building a contender?
Examining the last decade of Super Bowl winners, each team has players they acquired through all three categories. Taking a look at each team’s final Super Bowl roster and breaking down how each of those 53 players were acquired, fans can get a better appreciation on how a team is really assembled. For the purpose of this article, only a team’s final Super Bowl roster was evaluated; there are players who either ended up on injured reserved, suspended, or were traded away that are not considered for this exercise. Role players are important components of a team, but the core of the team is what elevates the team to a championship. For example, over the last decade, the New Orleans Saints are the only team who signed their quarterback, Drew Brees, via free agency and the New York Giants are the only team that technically traded for their quarterback, trading quarterback Philip Rivers and three additional draft picks to the San Diego Chargers for Eli Manning.
NOTES: Undrafted free agents and players signed off other team’s practice squads are tabulated as free agents. Players who were traded for by the team but subsequently signed a long-term contract with the team were counted as trades. Thought process behind that concept is the player would not likely have signed long-term with that particular team without the trade. Special teams players are the punter, kicker, and long snapper.

 

2013 Seattle Seahawks

Right out the gate, it is easy to see the Seahawks took a balanced approach to crafting their 53-man roster, but when it came to their starters, the focus was clearly on drafting smartly and then re-signing those draft picks that fit their system. The Seahawks recent success rate of hitting on players throughout the draft has been well publicized. Whether it was grabbing a franchise quarterback in Russell Wilson in the third round, or grabbing a top cornerback like Richard Sherman in the fifth round, they were able to find starting-caliber players in multiple drafts.  Although nearly 60% of their starting roster came from drafting, the Seahawks did explore free agency to augment the team they had built. Tight end Zach Miller and defensive end Michael Bennett are two players who played key roles in their quest for the Super Bowl. As for trades, the Seahawks deal for running back Marshawn Lynch has proven to be well-worth the two draft picks (fourth and fifth rounders) they gave up for him.

 

2012 Baltimore Ravens

The 2012 Ravens finished the regular season stone cold, going 1-4 down the final weeks of the season, completing the regular season with a 10-6 record and limping into the playoffs. They heated up though, and won four straight to capture the Super Bowl title. The Ravens drafted nearly 55% of their 53-man roster and 59.1% of their starters came through the draft, the latter being identical to the Seattle Seahawks. They grabbed cornerstones in quarterback Joe Flacco, linebackers Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs, and defensive tackle Haloti Ngata in the first round of their respective drafts. Their free agency augmentation included wide receiver/kick return specialist Jacoby Jones, who returned a touchdown for 108 yards in the Super Bowl, and safety Bernard Pollard, who forced a key fumble in the AFC Championship. The lone trade on their Super Bowl roster was wide receiver Anquan Boldin, who led the team in receptions (65) and receiving (921 yards) in 2012, while adding four touchdowns. The Ravens gave up third and fourth round picks for a key component of their Super Bowl team.

 

2011 New York Giants

The Giants are one of two teams to make this list twice (the 2006 and 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers are the other), so their rosters will be interesting to compare. Unlike the 2012 Baltimore Ravens, the Giants had a mid-season slump but finished the homestretch with a 3-1 record. Their approach to assembling their team was fairly balanced with about half of it assembled through the draft and free agency. As stated before, they technically traded for quarterback Eli Manning, but many view that as a draft acquisition simply because the Giants made it known Manning was the quarterback they wanted all along. Key pieces of the Giants offense were added through the draft, including running back Ahmad Bradshaw and wide receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. On the other side of the ball, the Giants grabbed defensive standouts Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. In free agency, they added players like defensive end Chris Canty and guard Kevin Boothe. The Giants traded a conditional draft pick for kicker Lawrence Tynes, who kicked two field goals from 38 and 33 yards; he was the only player they traded for on their 2011 Super Bowl roster.

 

 

 

2010 Green Bay Packers

That is not a misprint: all 11 offensive starters on the Packers’ 2010 Super Bowl roster were drafted by the team. No trades, no free agency, all home-grown. The Packers also drafted an astounding 77% of their Super Bowl starters, much higher than the average for most championship teams. What kind of talent did they nab to bring the title to Titletown? Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, linebacker Clay Matthews, and wide receivers Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Jordy Nelson. Even with so much success in the draft, the Packers did add key free agents to bolster their roster, focusing on defense. Safety Charles Woodson and cornerback Tramon Williams were both brought in off the open market. The Packers are the most recent Super Bowl team who had no player acquired via trade on their 53-man championship roster.

 

2009 New Orleans Saints

The Saints’ Super Bowl team was assembled more from free agency and trades than through the draft, with a whopping 64.1% of the roster coming from outside the draft. As mentioned before, the Saints are the only Super Bowl-winning team who did not draft their quarterback. They made perhaps the best free agency signing of the last decade when they grabbed quarterback Drew Brees; he has been nothing short of elite during his tenure with the team and well worth every penny they pay him. In addition to Brees, the Saints also signed center Jonathan Goodwin and undrafted running back Pierre Thomas via free agency. Though the draft, they selected highly-touted running back Reggie Bush with the second overall selection in 2006 and also managed to hit on a number of receivers, scoring on Marques Colston and Devery Henderson. They were also highly active in the trade market, parting ways with draft picks to obtain the rights to four players, including tight end Jeremy Shockey and linebacker Jonathan Vilma.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers share the honor with the New York Giants as the only teams to win two Super Bowls over the last decade; the 2003 and 2004 New England Patriots just missed making the decade-cut by one year. This team was one that was able to hit on player after player among their starters in the draft, with 68% of their starters coming from their own picks. The Steelers laid the foundation to their team by drafting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to guide their offense and safety Troy Polamalu to lead the defense. They also added valuable pieces like tight end Heath Miller, wide receivers Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes and linebacker LaMarr Woodley though the draft. In free agency, they found a Defensive Player of the Year in linebacker James Harrison as well as a free safety in Ryan Clark to complement Polamalu. The Steelers did not add a single player to their 2008 roster via trade.

 

2007 New York Giants

The Giants had many faces who appeared on both their 2007 and 2011 Super Bowl rosters: quarterback Eli Manning, defensive end Osi Umenyiora, tackle David Diehl, and guard Chris Snee are a few of the players who they retained for both victories. Overall, their 2007 starting roster was pulled from exactly the same sources as in 2011: half of the players came from the draft and half came via free agency or trade. Some of the key players they added through the draft that were not around in 2011 included defensive end Michael Strahan, wide receiver Amani Toomer, and defensive tackle Barry Cofield. In addition to the “trade” for Manning, the Giants also traded for running back Reuben Droughns, who only rushed for 275 yards for the season but contributed six rushing touchdowns (led the team).

 

2006 Indianapolis Colts

The Colts’ 2006 season was the capstone of both head coach Tony Dungy’s and quarterback Peyton Manning’s career. For Manning, it was a silencing of the naysayers who said he could not win the big game. As is the theme with most teams on this list, the 53-man roster for the Colts was assembled with a balanced approach; however, nearly 70% their starters were hand-selected by the Colts front office. Manning is the most prominent, but they also added defensive ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney as well as wide receivers Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne through the draft. In free agency, they were able to grab key contributors, including kicker Adam Vinatieri, center Jeff Saturday, and defensive end Raheem Brock.  Though they had no players they traded for starting in the Super Bowl, both wide receiver John Standeford and linebacker Ryan LaCasse were acquired via trade.

 

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers

The 2005 Steelers were another team whose draft success was evident in the high percentage of the Super Bowl starters they were able to correctly hit on, posting an eye-popping 77% (same as the 2010 Green Bay Packers). Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, wide receiver Hines Ward, safety Troy Polamalu and tight Hines Ward are key players who were drafted by the team and made appearances on both championship teams. In free agency, they added vital cogs like linebacker James Farrior and running back Willie Parker, but outside of those two, the major contributors definitely came through the draft. They only made one trade, but it was a fairly significant one: the Steelers acquired running back Jerome Bettis from the St Louis Rams, who retired after winning the Super Bowl in his home city of Detroit.

2004 New England Patriots

The cornerstones of the Patriots Super Bowl runs have been quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick; the team was extremely fortunate in hitting on one of the biggest steals in NFL history in Brady. He was not their only great draft pick though; the Patriots also hit big on stalwarts like linebacker Teddy Bruschi, defensive linemen Vince Wilfork and Willie McGinest, and cornerback Asante Samuel. In free agency, they added stalwarts like linebacker Mike Vrabel and safety Rodney Harrison. Their lone trade was also a significant one; they traded the Cincinnati Bengals for running back Corey Dillon. He was a major contributor to Super Bowl push, rushing for over 1,600 yards and twelve touchdowns.

Summary

So, are Super Bowl-winning teams built through the draft? Yes, but not unequivocally. It is clear the foundation of a champion are built through the draft; nearly 63% of 220 Super Bowl starters were drafted by their respective teams. However, the totality of rosters show a careful balance of augmenting the core with key role players, and in some case, some very important contributors. The only team that that equally balanced the draft with free agency and trades were the New York Giants, and they did it in both of their championship seasons. Front offices cannot afford to miss in the draft and expect to be able to recover by signing players in free agency; the draft is where youth replenishes a team’s roster and free agents tend to lower the overall age of a roster. When someone says, “Super Bowl teams are built through the draft,” they are right; a team cannot lay the cornerstones for a team by trying to buy a championship. Only by drafting the right players can a team expect to reach the Promised Land.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://sports-kings.com/downanddistance/path-super-bowl-draft-free-agency/2/

[Tigris]

I'm too lazy to figure out our numbers... anyone?

[JBandJoeyV]

I'm too lazy to figure out our numbers... anyone?

Well assuming boling and Z at G and pollack at C and Gio as starting running back, 10 of 11 offensive starters we drafted. On D I guess it depends on if bilberry or hunt is starting. But let's assume Wallace and assume lamur or rey at Harrison's spot and Hall and Newman at cb, you are looking at 8 of 11 on D. So 18 of 22 is 82 percent. And if hunt and dre beat out Gilbery and Newman it would be even higher. Or if geathers beats out Gilbery.

[coup000]

Our offensive starters will most likely be 10 drafted and 1 FA (assuming Pollack starts at C and Gio is the "starter"). Defensive will be 7 draft 1 trade (Nelson) and 3 FA (Assume Gilberry, Newman, Iloka and a DB or LB that we drafted as the last back 7 player all start) Manning starting would shift the numbers as would Hunt or Dre. It's somewhat conceivable that Pollack and Nelson could be the only starters acquired outside the draft/UDFA process if they go with the Dre/Hunt youth movement on D.

 

The avg superbowl team had about 37% FA and trades we have about 22%.

 

I still contend we aren't doing enough to supplement our excellent drafting with selected free agents to fill needs.  

[JBandJoeyV]

Our offensive starters will most likely be 10 drafted and 1 FA (assuming Pollack starts at C and Gio is the "starter"). Defensive will be 7 draft 1 trade (Nelson) and 3 FA (Assume Gilberry, Newman, Iloka and a DB or LB that we drafted as the last back 7 player all start) Manning starting would shift the numbers as would Hunt or Dre. It's somewhat conceivable that Pollack and Nelson could be the only starters acquired outside the draft/UDFA process if they go with the Dre/Hunt youth movement on D.
 
The avg superbowl team had about 37% FA and trades we have about 22%.
 
I still contend we aren't doing enough to supplement our excellent drafting with selected free agents to fill needs.  

I prob agree with the last part but it's probably not going to change. Fortunately I don't think it hurts the team that much, but it also puts more pressure on guys on the roster to step up.

If I could make one move to make this offseason better I would have signed a solid starting OG. I don't like the idea of boling starting coming off injury and I don't like being forced to draft one in the early rounds.

[Marvin]

Great information. Thanks!

[sparky151]

Our offensive starters will most likely be 10 drafted and 1 FA (assuming Pollack starts at C and Gio is the "starter"). Defensive will be 7 draft 1 trade (Nelson) and 3 FA (Assume Gilberry, Newman, Iloka and a DB or LB that we drafted as the last back 7 player all start) Manning starting would shift the numbers as would Hunt or Dre. It's somewhat conceivable that Pollack and Nelson could be the only starters acquired outside the draft/UDFA process if they go with the Dre/Hunt youth movement on D.

 

The avg superbowl team had about 37% FA and trades we have about 22%.

 

I still contend we aren't doing enough to supplement our excellent drafting with selected free agents to fill needs.  

 

For what it's worth Iloka was drafted in 2012. Burfict, Rey, and Lamur were undrafted free agents of course. So the defense will probably have 5 draftees (assuming Iloka starts over Manning), 1 traded player in Nelson (who entered free agency and was re-signed), and 5 free agents (assuming Lamur and Rey both start. If Maualuga keeps his job, then 1 less free agent, 1 more draftee).

[Oldcat]

 

For what it's worth Iloka was drafted in 2012. Burfict, Rey, and Lamur were undrafted free agents of course. So the defense will probably have 5 draftees (assuming Iloka starts over Manning), 1 traded player in Nelson (who entered free agency and was re-signed), and 5 free agents (assuming Lamur and Rey both start. If Maualuga keeps his job, then 1 less free agent, 1 more draftee).

 

I'm not sure how this article divides those up, but philosophically CFAs are more like extra draft picks than Free Agents in the argument between "Build from Within" and "Buy your team on the FA market" opposites.

 

I'm also not sure that even separating the team into starter/not starter is good enough to identify FA heavy/Draft teams.  Sometimes "starter" doesn't mean much (like on our DL).  And even a FA heavy team that goes and buys its core players on the market might have a lot of drafted players in non-skill positions which would skew the results toward 'drafted starters'.  And teams like us with a draft first philosophy usually pick up a few players on the value FA lists that contribute.

[Bengals1181]

 

I'm not sure how this article divides those up, but philosophically CFAs are more like extra draft picks than Free Agents in the argument between "Build from Within" and "Buy your team on the FA market" opposites.

 

I'm also not sure that even separating the team into starter/not starter is good enough to identify FA heavy/Draft teams.  Sometimes "starter" doesn't mean much (like on our DL).  And even a FA heavy team that goes and buys its core players on the market might have a lot of drafted players in non-skill positions which would skew the results toward 'drafted starters'.  And teams like us with a draft first philosophy usually pick up a few players on the value FA lists that contribute.

 

 

NOTES: Undrafted free agents and players signed off other team’s practice squads are tabulated as free agents. Players who were traded for by the team but subsequently signed a long-term contract with the team were counted as trades. Thought process behind that concept is the player would not likely have signed long-term with that particular team without the trade. Special teams players are the punter, kicker, and long snapper.

[Oldcat]

 

 

NOTES: Undrafted free agents and players signed off other team’s practice squads are tabulated as free agents. Players who were traded for by the team but subsequently signed a long-term contract with the team were counted as trades. Thought process behind that concept is the player would not likely have signed long-term with that particular team without the trade. Special teams players are the punter, kicker, and long snapper.

 

Thanks for the info.  I think that blurs the line between the two 'theories' as a team like Pitt or us that have success with UDFA are going to look more like FA squads than we really are.

[JC]

I think you have to win through the draft, but getting over the top takes that one key trade/signing.  Seattle and Denver are both really good examples of that.  The Ravens getting Boldin one them a championship.  You build a good core, not overpaying for good players, and then knock it out of the park and pay peanuts to good players.  Make a move for a really good piece when you are close.