Waaaay too early AFC playoff thoughts

[happyrid]

I love some of the stats/odds stuff that 538 puts out and I especially like their playoff odds that they post. Here are some interesting ones for the AFC:

 

1. Bengals currently have a 75% chance to make playoffs and 58% chance to win the division. 8% shot to win the Super Bowl.

 

2. Bengals chances of making playoffs are 2nd only to Denver (80%) in the AFC. Denver and Seattle have the best shot to win the SB at 12% each.

 

3. It's really looking like the AFC South is a longshot to produce a Wild Card team. Indianapolis is a slight favorite to win the division over Houston despite being 2 games behind in the standings after 2 weeks. Only about a 20% shot of an AFC South WC team. The article mentions that there is a decent chance that 8-8 wins the South.

 

4. The Stealers and Ravens each have less than a 20% chance of winning the North, but both have over a 40% chance of making the playoffs. So they have a better shot at being a Wild Card than winning the division. Add it all up and they predict there's about a 70% chance of an AFC North team getting a Wild Card.

 

5. Buffalo's quick start has them with almost a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Would be just Cleveland's luck that Buffalo is unexpectedly good when the Browns own their 2015 1st rounder. Kind of rooting for the Bills to make the playoffs. 

 

It's obviously super early, but it looks like the most likely playoff scenario for the AFC right now is:

 

1. Denver

2. Cincinnati

3. New England

4. Indianapolis

5. San Diego

6. Buffalo

 

It will be interesting to track this as the season goes on and I'll update every now and then if anyone else finds this worthwhile. Here's the link with the standings and odds at the bottom:

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nfl-week-3-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/

[Arkansas Bengal]

Indy is 0 - 2 while Houston is 2 - 0...