Is A.J. Green headed for a contract stalemate with the Bengals?

[Arkansas Bengal]

Is A.J. Green headed for a contract stalemate with the Bengals?

Posted by Christopher Hansen on Aug 31, 2015 16:43

 

At the beginning of the offseason, there were four top receivers seeking new contracts. Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas and Julio Jones have all agreed to contract extensions, leaving Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green as the sole remaining member of the quartet.

With three comparable contracts on the books, there is no reason the Bengals and Green shouldn’t be able to come to an agreement before the regular season starts. If they don’t, there’s a good chance they will remain locked in a stalemate.

For starters, Green is arguably worth less than the other three wide receivers. Jones and Thomas have averaged more yards per game and more yards per reception since Green came into the league in 2011. Dez Bryant it comparable to Green, but he also has 50 touchdowns to Green’s 35.

Green also has the lowest catch percentage of the four. That could have something to do with him having the worst quarterback throwing him the ball of the four and the fact or that he’s a bigger piece of the Bengals offense, so passes get forced his way.

According to Pro Football Focus, Green did average the most yards per route run last season in the entire league. Thomas, Bryant and Jones weren’t far behind, but they also missed only one game between them to Green’s three.

When other factors are considered, Green also looked more appealing than his three comrades. Green doesn’t have any concerns off the field like Bryant and he’s been more durable than Jones. Green has also been great since he came into the league despite quarterback Andy Dalton’s deficiencies, whereas Thomas’ value has been intrinsically linked to quarterback Peyton Manning’s arrival in Denver.

These could all end up becoming sticking points if the two sides don’t come to an agreement soon, but there is no doubt Green belongs in same range, which is a five-year deal worth around $70 million with guarantees north of $32 million.

The Bengals could push for a low-end deal while Green pushed to be the highest paid. Both sides would have valid arguments, but usually there is a compromise. So far, having comparable deals to work with hasn’t been enough to make that happen and Jones’ deal could actually complicate the process.

According to Fox Sports, Jones’ deal is worth $71.25 million and has $47.5 million guaranteed. Whereas Bryant’s deal had $32 million guaranteed and Thomas’ had $35 million, per overthecap.com. Perhaps some of Jones’ guarantee is only for injury, which inflated the numbers. If not, Jones received a big bump over Bryant and Thomas and Green could want the same.

Both sides seemed optimistic something would get done, but even Green is starting to turn his attention toward the 2015 regular season.

“We will see,” Green said about if the deal will get done, via Paul Dehner of Cincinnati.com. “If it happens, it happens. If it don’t I’ll go out there and play. We’ll see.”

If a deal doesn’t get done, it’s worth wondering if it ever will. The Bengals could choose to franchise Green next season, when he’s 28, and then let him go thereafter. That would give them time to draft a replacement and allow the Bengals to retain some of their other young talent instead.

One way or another, we should have an answer by the time Green takes the field Week 1 in Oakland.

 

http://network.yardbarker.com/nfl/article_external/is_aj_green_headed_for_a_contract_stalemate_with_the_bengals/19448965

[|High School Harry|]

Is A.J. Green headed for a contract stalemate with the Bengals?

The Magic Eight Ball Says ... 

 

[scharm]

The Bengals could choose to franchise Green next season, when he’s 28, and then let him go thereafter. That would give them time to draft a replacement and allow the Bengals to retain some of their other young talent instead.

 

Stop.   Bengals are 17 under currently.    Green already counts 10 in that number.     The Bengals currently have about 106 mil committed next year, conservative cap estimates have it at 150 mil.      Why is it always the mentality of the financial matters of this club framed as you can do this but not that?   Pending any extensions, carry over and cap growth this team could enter next season with 60-70 mil in cap room.

We know they are going to tag him.   So it's very possible to get Green his money and still save in the Cap this year and next or do the typical Bengal thing and front load it to save room for future years.

 

 

[Randle P McMurphy]

No reason they can't get it done before the season starts.  If A.J. goes out

and has his best season to date, or even just like a 1,400 yard, 12 TD season,

he's going to want more than the other 3 got.  What is the WR franchise tag going

to be in 2016?  Roughly $14 million?  

 

 

[HairOnFire]

Dez and Demarius signed 11th hour deals that already look like the floor, not the ceiling.

Falcons and Julio weren't under the same pressure, yet because the team wanted to avoid its own 11th hour negotiations the player got a crazy amount of guaranteed money.

AJ is going to want even more.

He's proven himself to be more productive, less injury prone, and better overall.

As a result Bengals have to decide now, before Green has done anything in the playoffs, if Green has anything left to prove before they let him redefine the price of a franchise WR.

 

 

 

[Rumble In the Jungle]

imagine if Matt Ryan or Peyton were AJ's QB's instead of Dalton! 

[Le Tigre]

Imagine if AJ ever runs good routes, and catches the ball instead of tipping it to a defender for an INT.   

[scharm]

Imagine if AJ ever runs good routes, and catches the ball instead of tipping it to a defender for an INT.   

lol.

Out of the box pro bowler.   Hands down top 5 talent in a loaded 2011 top 10 draft.    5 star prospect going into college.

His numbers have still been limited to the inability of the offense to reach elite levels despite the change at OC after 2010.   Like it or not his Qb bears the largest responsibility.

 

 

[B.A.B.]

Imagine if AJ ever runs good routes, and catches the ball instead of tipping it to a defender for an INT.   

Yeah. He never catches the balls or runs good routes. Lmao ever get tired of being a joke?

[T-Dub]

   Like it or not his Qb bears the largest responsibility.

 

 

No, AJ bears the largest responsibility.  Dalton didn't make him drop that pass.  WTF? 

What isn't Dalton's fault around here..    

 

I guess until we have a HoF QB nobody else can be held accountable.  

[Le Tigre]

Yeah. He never catches the balls or runs good routes. Lmao ever get tired of being a joke?

Troll much?

[happyrid]

Bengals might be a little gunshy about doing the extension a year before they really have to (both Dez and Demaryius got their deals just before their 6th seasons). Last couple times we've done that (Geno, Vontaze) the guys went down with major injuries in the next season. We'd have ended up saving a lot of money by waiting. After struggling through injuries last year, I can see them playing a little bit of hardball with Green and sticking to their guns about the numbers/guarantees for now. If he has to play out the year and take the injury risk upon himself, it's not that bad a thing from the Bengals' perspective.

In terms of whether or not the Bengals will let him walk in 2017 after a franchise tag in 2016, I would be shocked. All of their recent moves point towards them knowing they have to spend big to keep him. They've spent draft picks at big money positions like OT and CB in recent years and it looks like a major part of that was looking to save a few bucks at those positions to be able to afford big money for AJ. Wouldn't make sense to draft those guys and then let AJ walk to save money and sign Andre Smith or Leon Hall. That's not the way they've drafted (lack of early WRs) and it just doesn't seem like it's their plan. 

Whether it happens now or next summer, AJ's going to get his big long-term deal. 

[|SF2|]

Meh, AJ and his agent know a reasonable deal now with typical guaranteed money is generational type money.   Risking a Bo Jackson type injury over a couple of million dollars is risky business.  I expect a deal sooner than later.

[T-Dub]

For the sake of argument, it's worth noting that aside from franchise tagging him every year, AJ is allowed to sign with any NFL team of his choosing.

We seem to be treating it as a given that the Bengals simply need to offer X amount of dollars and then AJ re-ups his contract.  Little mention is made of the fact that other teams can also offer him x, y, and z dollars and have other advantages, like media exposure, that we can't match.

I'm not saying he's gone, I'm saying he has a decision to make as well and I wouldn't assume one way or the other.

 

 

[TimKrumrieFan]

Meh, AJ and his agent know a reasonable deal now with typical guaranteed money is generational type money.   Risking a Bo Jackson type injury over a couple of million dollars is risky business.  I expect a deal sooner than later.

Exactly.

[sparky151]

For the sake of argument, it's worth noting that aside from franchise tagging him every year, AJ is allowed to sign with any NFL team of his choosing.

We seem to be treating it as a given that the Bengals simply need to offer X amount of dollars and then AJ re-ups his contract.  Little mention is made of the fact that other teams can also offer him x, y, and z dollars and have other advantages, like media exposure, that we can't match.

I'm not saying he's gone, I'm saying he has a decision to make as well and I wouldn't assume one way or the other.

 

 

AJ may well sign his tender right away, which would keep another team from signing him. If he does decline to sign the tender so he can shop himself, he may be disappointed. The history of trading 2 first round picks for a receiver isn't very favorable for the teams giving up the picks. Atlanta did it for Julio. The Browns blew the picks but Atlanta has had some problems the last couple of years. Sammy Watkins went for a couple of picks and the jury is still out. Watkins is good but the Bills could have had Beckham at their original spot. Joey Galloway and Keyshawn Johnson were traded for a pair of first rounders and those trades both backfired.

If another team signed AJ for 80 mil over 5 years with 45 guaranteed, the Bengals may well opt for the draft picks instead of matching. They'd save a lot of money (even if they sign next year's version of Randall Cobb or Jeremy Maclin) and gain a couple of high picks.

 

[scharm]

I think 1 team traded for Peerless Price while tagged.  Smart move.

[T-Dub]

I don't see tagging him for more than one season as a viable option.

[|Elflocko|]

I don't see tagging him for more than one season as a viable option.

When has a player been tagged multiple years in a row? It can't be many...

[mhfinks]

AJ may well sign his tender right away, which would keep another team from signing him. If he does decline to sign the tender so he can shop himself, he may be disappointed. The history of trading 2 first round picks for a receiver isn't very favorable for the teams giving up the picks. Atlanta did it for Julio. The Browns blew the picks but Atlanta has had some problems the last couple of years. Sammy Watkins went for a couple of picks and the jury is still out. Watkins is good but the Bills could have had Beckham at their original spot. Joey Galloway and Keyshawn Johnson were traded for a pair of first rounders and those trades both backfired.

If another team signed AJ for 80 mil over 5 years with 45 guaranteed, the Bengals may well opt for the draft picks instead of matching. They'd save a lot of money (even if they sign next year's version of Randall Cobb or Jeremy Maclin) and gain a couple of high picks.

 

Question : has AJ been as productive as he can? NO

Question : has he stayed healthy every year - played 16 games? NO

Question : is AJ worth 70 mil and 45 gaur... ? NO

Answer; Tag him next year - like you said - let him shop and set the market - then decide... If the answer to all three questions abover were yes... he would have signed a deal already.. his value is most likely in the 60 million range... IMO

[scharm]

Do not be swayed by the "guaranteed" it's more agent marketing vs. the team accepting huge amounts of additional risk.

Julio's guaranteed amount of 47 mil is composed of Signing and roster bonus.   Then the team also guarantees this year and next year salary.     Very few extensions of a team's top players have seen them cut in the months after signing it and/or the year after signing it.   

Like most recent contracts the Atlanta Falcon could get out of the contract with cap savings starting in year 3 if they choose.   

Don't be scared about the total dollar amount either.

Julio Jones will count 12.4 against the Falcons cap this season after the extension.  He was counting 10 prior.    Julio Jones will count 15.9 against the cap next year.

 

TY Hilton guarantees is a lesser amount of the same strategy as Julio Jones.   The Colts did include a deadline each year in order to determine the guarantee.  They basically have to make a decision by the 5th day of the new year league.     The Colts could get out of the contract with cap savings starting next year.    

 

Tag vs. Extension at this point each has it's advantages and downfalls.   Right now the Bengals could buy the out years of AJ for a little extra risk for about the same amount of cap cost as they could by tagging him next year. 

 

There's no way in hell AJ Green is worth 60 mil,  when TY Hilton just signed for 65 and 28 in guaranteed.      Julio Jones played 5 games in 2013 and just 13 last season and just signed for 71 and 47.   

If the Bengals aren't willing to play the game then sell the fucking team. 

 

 

 

[USN Bengal]

Do not be swayed by the "guaranteed" it's more agent marketing vs. the team accepting huge amounts of additional risk.

Julio's guaranteed amount of 47 mil is composed of Signing and roster bonus.   Then the team also guarantees this year and next year salary.     Very few extensions of a team's top players have seen them cut in the months after signing it and/or the year after signing it.   

Like most recent contracts the Atlanta Falcon could get out of the contract with cap savings starting in year 3 if they choose.   

Don't be scared about the total dollar amount either.

Julio Jones will count 12.4 against the Falcons cap this season after the extension.  He was counting 10 prior.    Julio Jones will count 15.9 against the cap next year.

 

TY Hilton guarantees is a lesser amount of the same strategy as Julio Jones.   The Colts did include a deadline each year in order to determine the guarantee.  They basically have to make a decision by the 5th day of the new year league.     The Colts could get out of the contract with cap savings starting next year.    

 

Tag vs. Extension at this point each has it's advantages and downfalls.   Right now the Bengals could buy the out years of AJ for a little extra risk for about the same amount of cap cost as they could by tagging him next year. 

 

There's no way in hell AJ Green is worth 60 mil,  when TY Hilton just signed for 65 and 28 in guaranteed.      Julio Jones played 5 games in 2013 and just 13 last season and just signed for 71 and 47.   

If the Bengals aren't willing to play the game then sell the fucking team. 

 

 

 

Spot on scharm.

[|SF2|]

Do not be swayed by the "guaranteed" it's more agent marketing vs. the team accepting huge amounts of additional risk.

Julio's guaranteed amount of 47 mil is composed of Signing and roster bonus.   Then the team also guarantees this year and next year salary.     Very few extensions of a team's top players have seen them cut in the months after signing it and/or the year after signing it.   

Like most recent contracts the Atlanta Falcon could get out of the contract with cap savings starting in year 3 if they choose.   

Don't be scared about the total dollar amount either.

Julio Jones will count 12.4 against the Falcons cap this season after the extension.  He was counting 10 prior.    Julio Jones will count 15.9 against the cap next year.

 

TY Hilton guarantees is a lesser amount of the same strategy as Julio Jones.   The Colts did include a deadline each year in order to determine the guarantee.  They basically have to make a decision by the 5th day of the new year league.     The Colts could get out of the contract with cap savings starting next year.    

 

Tag vs. Extension at this point each has it's advantages and downfalls.   Right now the Bengals could buy the out years of AJ for a little extra risk for about the same amount of cap cost as they could by tagging him next year. 

 

There's no way in hell AJ Green is worth 60 mil,  when TY Hilton just signed for 65 and 28 in guaranteed.      Julio Jones played 5 games in 2013 and just 13 last season and just signed for 71 and 47.   

If the Bengals aren't willing to play the game then sell the fucking team. 

 

 

 

Good stuff here.   The question for the Bengals is do we pay AJ what the market demands now or do we tag him for a year, reassess, then either sign him next year or spend the money somewhere else.    It boils down to how best to spend that large block of cap space and money.  Will AJ Green provide the most value for that block of money?

[Jason]

  

Is A.J. Green headed for a contract stalemate with the Bengals?

No.  He will be extended by 9/12/15.

 

[scharm]

No.  He will be extended by 9/12/15.

 

Today is the DAY!