First Quarter 2016 Draft Outlook

[Jason]

Here is my first 2016 draft outlook that is now becoming an annual event.  I will go position by position looking at performance and free agents, and try to assess what the team could be looking for come Draft Weekend.  Note, given their penchant for drafting Best Player Available, I won't rule out anything except QB in 1.

QB - Dalton has been locked up, and is playing well.  McCaron is under contract and they seem happy with him for now.  No draft need, no pick projected. No Need.

FB - They like Hewitt and he is doing ok, and has the versatility Hue likes.  It certainly won't be for need if they draft one at all. No Need.

RB - Bernard and Hill are under contract, and I believe Bulkhead is as well.  Plus they have Wilder and Watson on the practice squad.  I really don't see them drafting a RB. No Need.

WR - Here is where it gets interesting. Jones, Sanu and Little are all free agents at the end of the year.  I hope they are able to keep both Jones and Sanu but I will be surprised if they do.  Even if they do, I could easily see them drafting a WR at some point because they have nothing proven behind the Big 3.  Anticipating the loss of either Sanu or Jones I see WR as the #2 need for this team, and think they could easily take one early.  Maybe not in 1, but 2 or 3 would not surprise me at all.  Neither would 1 if he is BPA.  Early need.

TE - Eifert is good for at least 1 more year, and Kroft and Uzomah are both rookies. Plus they have Lengel on the practice squad.  Unless Kroft or Uzomah does not develop at all I have a hard time seeing them drafting a TE.  No Need.

OT - Whit has been extended for 1 year.  Fisher and Cedric are locked up for a few years.  Not sure about Winston, or that it matters.  Plus they have France on the PS.  I really don't see OT in the plans.  No Need.

OG - Boling has been locked up and Heitler extended for the 1 year option.  Plus they have Trey Hopkins on the PS.  But that is it for true guards.  Depending on what happens with Andre, either Fisher or Ced could backup at guard next year, but drafting one late would not surprise me.  Possible late need.

C - Bodine's play has improved.  I guess TJ Johnson is an adequate backup. No Need.

K - Nugent has become unreliable.  If he misses anymore FGs under 45 this year they need to seriously consider replacing him. Possible late need.

 P - Good to go. No Need.

Returner - I think between Tate and Alford they have guys they are comfortable with.  But if the WR they draft has some return skills it is a bonus. No Need.

DE - Johnson and Dunlap are locked up, but Gilberry will be a free agent, and Hunt has a hard time getting n the field.  If they are not able to re-sign Gillberry I could see a mid-round pick.  If they do, BPA only. Possible mid-round pick.

DT - Geno is locked up as apparently is Peko.  I think Sims got a couple of years as well.  They have DeShawn Williams on the PS.  But Brandon Thompson is a free agent.  a big DT could be a mid round pick if they are not able to retain him, otherwise, BPA only. Possible mid-round pick.

LB - Burfict is locked up and Dawson is a rookie.  I think those 2 will start next year. Maualuga is signed. Vinnie Rey and Chris Carter are free agents.  But I honestly see LB as the #1 need.  I want an athletic 3 down backer to put with Burfict and Dawson.  Someone like Darron Lee would be great.  Do I expect it?  No. I see this as an Early Need but the Bengals probably do not. I think they could wind up drafting one late anyway though.  But I am hoping the consider one of the LBs to be BPA in 1 or 2.

CB - Not only are Hall and Jones free agents, but both are on the other side of 30.  Yes, they have Dennard for a few more years, and Dre will be on his 5th year extension.  But they also love first round CBs and while I don't see it as that early a need, the pick would not surprise me at all, but I think 2 may be more likely.  Even i they do re-sign Jones or Hall.  They won't play forever. Possible Early Need

S - Iloka and Nelson are both free agents.  And Nelson is on the wrong side of 30.  I really hope they are able to retain Iloka and I think they will.  They also have a couple of guys that can play in Williams and Derron Smith.  I think drafting here will depend entirely on if they re-sign Iloka.  If so, no need, if not, mid round pick for depth. Possible mid-round need.

In summary:

1 - LB, CB, WR, or BPA

2 - See 1

3 - DT, DE, what was not addressed in 1 and 2

4 - S or what was not addressed above 

5 - Guard, DT or unaddressed from above

6 - K or see 5

7 - See 6 

[happyrid]

My take on Day 1/Day 2 draft needs at the 1/3 point of the season (and prior to free agency):

1. I think they need to make locking up Marvin Jones at WR2 a priority this offseason. Even if they keep him and/or Sanu, they need to add depth with a mid-early round receiver. The only real need on offense, so I think it'll get addressed in the first 3 rounds. 

2. The D Line is a strength but adding a top notch option at DT next to Geno should be the top defensive priority. Peko's getting older. Hardison's probably just a rotational type. And the rest of the guys are free agents. I think you keep drafting to your strengths in this case. Plus, adding a 4th big-time D Lineman would go a long way towards covering up any potential weaknesses in the back seven. Would love to see a 1st or 2nd round DT added to the mix. 

3. Defensive back is the biggest unknown. I tend to think they will be able to afford to keep most of their free agents that they want. Hall and Jones are still playing pretty well and there shouldn't be a crazy market for them due to their age. Same with Reggie Nelson. Iloka could be more expensive, but they can keep him if they really want to. They've also done a nice job of planning ahead and have Josh Shaw, Derron Smith, Shawn Williams, and Darqueze Dennard possibly ready to step into bigger roles if needed. 

[happyrid]

Here is my first 2016 draft outlook that is now becoming an annual event.  I will go position by position looking at performance and free agents, and try to assess what the team could be looking for come Draft Weekend.  Note, given their penchant for drafting Best Player Available, I won't rule out anything except QB in 1.

QB - Dalton has been locked up, and is playing well.  McCaron is under contract and they seem happy with him for now.  No draft need, no pick projected. No Need.

FB - They like Hewitt and he is doing ok, and has the versatility Hue likes.  It certainly won't be for need if they draft one at all. No Need.

RB - Bernard and Hill are under contract, and I believe Bulkhead is as well.  Plus they have Wilder and Watson on the practice squad.  I really don't see them drafting a RB. No Need.

WR - Here is where it gets interesting. Jones, Sanu and Little are all free agents at the end of the year.  I hope they are able to keep both Jones and Sanu but I will be surprised if they do.  Even if they do, I could easily see them drafting a WR at some point because they have nothing proven behind the Big 3.  Anticipating the loss of either Sanu or Jones I see WR as the #2 need for this team, and think they could easily take one early.  Maybe not in 1, but 2 or 3 would not surprise me at all.  Neither would 1 if he is BPA.  Early need.

TE - Eifert is good for at least 1 more year, and Kroft and Uzomah are both rookies. Plus they have Lengel on the practice squad.  Unless Kroft or Uzomah does not develop at all I have a hard time seeing them drafting a TE.  No Need.

OT - Whit has been extended for 1 year.  Fisher and Cedric are locked up for a few years.  Not sure about Winston, or that it matters.  Plus they have France on the PS.  I really don't see OT in the plans.  No Need.

OG - Boling has been locked up and Heitler extended for the 1 year option.  Plus they have Trey Hopkins on the PS.  But that is it for true guards.  Depending on what happens with Andre, either Fisher or Ced could backup at guard next year, but drafting one late would not surprise me.  Possible late need.

C - Bodine's play has improved.  I guess TJ Johnson is an adequate backup. No Need.

K - Nugent has become unreliable.  If he misses anymore FGs under 45 this year they need to seriously consider replacing him. Possible late need.

 P - Good to go. No Need.

Returner - I think between Tate and Alford they have guys they are comfortable with.  But if the WR they draft has some return skills it is a bonus. No Need.

DE - Johnson and Dunlap are locked up, but Gilberry will be a free agent, and Hunt has a hard time getting n the field.  If they are not able to re-sign Gillberry I could see a mid-round pick.  If they do, BPA only. Possible mid-round pick.

DT - Geno is locked up as apparently is Peko.  I think Sims got a couple of years as well.  They have DeShawn Williams on the PS.  But Brandon Thompson is a free agent.  a big DT could be a mid round pick if they are not able to retain him, otherwise, BPA only. Possible mid-round pick.

LB - Burfict is locked up and Dawson is a rookie.  I think those 2 will start next year. Maualuga is signed. Vinnie Rey and Chris Carter are free agents.  But I honestly see LB as the #1 need.  I want an athletic 3 down backer to put with Burfict and Dawson.  Someone like Darron Lee would be great.  Do I expect it?  No. I see this as an Early Need but the Bengals probably do not. I think they could wind up drafting one late anyway though.  But I am hoping the consider one of the LBs to be BPA in 1 or 2.

CB - Not only are Hall and Jones free agents, but both are on the other side of 30.  Yes, they have Dennard for a few more years, and Dre will be on his 5th year extension.  But they also love first round CBs and while I don't see it as that early a need, the pick would not surprise me at all, but I think 2 may be more likely.  Even i they do re-sign Jones or Hall.  They won't play forever. Possible Early Need

S - Iloka and Nelson are both free agents.  And Nelson is on the wrong side of 30.  I really hope they are able to retain Iloka and I think they will.  They also have a couple of guys that can play in Williams and Derron Smith.  I think drafting here will depend entirely on if they re-sign Iloka.  If so, no need, if not, mid round pick for depth. Possible mid-round need.

In summary:

1 - LB, CB, WR, or BPA

2 - See 1

3 - DT, DE, what was not addressed in 1 and 2

4 - S or what was not addressed above 

5 - Guard, DT or unaddressed from above

6 - K or see 5

7 - See 6 

Agree with a lot of this, but I think you're overestimating the need at LB.

I think the NFL average (last I saw) is 2 LBs or less 76% of the time and that number continues to creep higher every year. 

So if Burfict comes back and looks good, I think the Bengals probably cross LB off the list of first round needs. They'd have Burfict, Maualuga and Dawson. Hawk's still under contract for 2016. Guys like Rey, Lamur, Carter, etc. will cost very little if they want to keep one or two of those guys. Darren Lee is really good and would make the defense better, but wouldn't make as big an impact (nor see the field as much) as adding a big time DT or another stud DB to the mix.

There's only so many snaps to go around at LB with only two being out there most of the time (especially on 3rd down, which is the money down in the NFL). So it doesn't make sense to over-invest in the position in 2016. We already have two guys making pretty big money there and a highly thought of 3rd rounder too.