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Should Marvin Trade AJ - Discussion


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16 hours ago, Jason said:

Since GoCommando did not allow discussion, I'm starting a new thread to discuss, because I have a comment.

The Vikings would not give us what I would want.  You don't give up a first round pic for a 1 year starter.  TB's injury is not career threatening, and I'm not sure McCarron is a better player than him.

The Carson trade was a little different.  Palmer (supposedly) was an upgrade over Campbell.

:HerpDerp-min:

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9 minutes ago, GoBengals said:

Treadwell and alexander alone were very very very good additions on each side of the ball, no reason to think bridgewater wouldnt still be improving and was already a pro bowler last season.

patterson, treadwell and diggs is a diabolical WR crew...adrian peterson is not too shabby either...

 

There's been a lot of stuff out lately that Treadwell can't even break into the WR corps to get snaps. He's suck behind Diggs, Johnson, Wright and they almost never go 4 WR. The talk was basically he waits until 2017.

And probowl is meaningless, no one wants to play and he got in with 3200 yards, 14 TDs and 9 INTs. Have you watched Teddy much? Other than his cult twitter following that thinks he is Jesus Christ...he's been very unimpressive. Significantly weaker arm than Dalton and team doesn't let him open it up at all. They try to hide him a ton and don't let him throw it much at all.

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12 minutes ago, Rumble In the Jungle said:

You guys know that AJ is under one more season of his rookie contract right? That means if we don't trade him this off season or now, he could walk after his rookie contract is over and we don't get SHIT! So either we trade him, trady Andy or just let him walk and don't get shit. Trading him would make the most sense since Andy isn't going anywhere. I don't see McCaron staying in Cincy to be a backup to Andy. I'm sure he'll want to start and be the teams leader. 

he is under contract through the 2017 season, so we have roughly 12 months to do whatever we plan to do.... his value isnt going to drop for any reason that i can see.. someone in a worse situation will give more than the vikings would, as someone pointed out, bridgewater isnt out forever, he will miss 1 season, so they arent likely to give even a 2nd round pick for a stop gap QB solution, only a team looking for a long term solution gives high draft picks for players. Buffalo, cleveland, KC, washington, NYJ, chicago perhaps, saintshoping for brees successor, teams like that are most likely candidates, but thats probably a draft day type offer... 

aside from NFL cheating that backup won us a playoff game, dont think the front office doesnt know this and know his value.

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Some thoughts:

- AJ is certainly worth 2 first round draft picks.  Think about it this way.  AJ is as good or a better bet to be a top-10 starting QB as the rookies that we see every year being drafted with top-5 picks at QB.  (Goff, Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Bortles, etc.)  And in order to get a top-5 picked QB a team has to give up at least 2 lower first round picks.  So the going rate for a top-5 drafted QB is 2 first round picks at a minimum.  Why is AJ a better bet that your average QB drafted in the top-5?  Those QBs may higher physical upside, but they were all drafted having zero NFL tape.  AJ has a good amount of very good NFL tape.  I think his chances of being a good NFL QB are greater than most top-5 picked rookie QBs.

-AJ's contract is ideal.  If a team trades for him they have a lot of options.  They can either let him play out his last 2 very cheap seasons. Or, they can sign him to a long-term deal when they trade for him that would pay him like a first round QB on his rookie deal and get a few more years on the contract at a price below what good established QBs get paid.  Or, they can wait one year and see what they have and then decide whether to extend him.

-The problem is that a GM trading 2 first round picks for AJ is going out on a limb.  People are used to GMs drafting rookie QBs high and that QB busting.  It may cost a GM his job, but it is almost understandable, because it is such a common occurrence. Trading a bunch of high draft picks for a vet, and having that vet bust is a different animal.  The GM that does that would really look foolish because it is such an unusual move.  This is why I think that a trade for AJ won't happen.  It would take some serious stones for a GM to pull the trigger.    

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15 minutes ago, Jason said:

How good was Carson with Oakland?  They traded him for a 7th round pick.  :) 

:pokerface-min:

i dunno he threw for 4,000 yards and a 3:2 td:int ratio the only year he started.

they wanted to dump his contract because they had to rebuild and he refused to take a pay cut. 

that season alone was better than both of campbells seasons. 

 

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1 hour ago, GoBengals said:

he is under contract through the 2017 season, so we have roughly 12 months to do whatever we plan to do.... his value isnt going to drop for any reason that i can see.. someone in a worse situation will give more than the vikings would, as someone pointed out, bridgewater isnt out forever, he will miss 1 season, so they arent likely to give even a 2nd round pick for a stop gap QB solution, only a team looking for a long term solution gives high draft picks for players. Buffalo, cleveland, KC, washington, NYJ, chicago perhaps, saintshoping for brees successor, teams like that are most likely candidates, but thats probably a draft day type offer... 

aside from NFL cheating that backup won us a playoff game, dont think the front office doesnt know this and know his value.

According to the enquirer in 2018 he would be a restricted free agent fwiw. 

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1 hour ago, BlackBengal said:

Some thoughts:

- AJ is certainly worth 2 first round draft picks.  Think about it this way.  AJ is as good or a better bet to be a top-10 starting QB as the rookies that we see every year being drafted with top-5 picks at QB.  (Goff, Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Bortles, etc.)  And in order to get a top-5 picked QB a team has to give up at least 2 lower first round picks.  So the going rate for a top-5 drafted QB is 2 first round picks at a minimum.  Why is AJ a better bet that your average QB drafted in the top-5?  Those QBs may higher physical upside, but they were all drafted having zero NFL tape.  AJ has a good amount of very good NFL tape.  I think his chances of being a good NFL QB are greater than most top-5 picked rookie QBs.

-AJ's contract is ideal.  If a team trades for him they have a lot of options.  They can either let him play out his last 2 very cheap seasons. Or, they can sign him to a long-term deal when they trade for him that would pay him like a first round QB on his rookie deal and get a few more years on the contract at a price below what good established QBs get paid.  Or, they can wait one year and see what they have and then decide whether to extend him.

-The problem is that a GM trading 2 first round picks for AJ is going out on a limb.  People are used to GMs drafting rookie QBs high and that QB busting.  It may cost a GM his job, but it is almost understandable, because it is such a common occurrence. Trading a bunch of high draft picks for a vet, and having that vet bust is a different animal.  The GM that does that would really look foolish because it is such an unusual move.  This is why I think that a trade for AJ won't happen.  It would take some serious stones for a GM to pull the trigger.    

He's a game manager. There isn't much upside. He doesn't have any of the physical skills of a top 5 pick. He's undersized and has a weak arm. He's proven he can stick in the NFL but the upside isn't there. Plus rookies get to be groomed from day 1 for that offense. AJ is older, has to learn a new offense and is somewhat groomed already. They claim your 2nd and 3rd years are where you grow the most. NFL teams have missed out on that now as this was his 3rd training camp/preseason as he enters his 3rd regular season.

I thought AJ would be a complete joke and he surprised me that he deserves to be in the NFL. I think his ceiling a Ryan Fitzpatrick type of season. He sure as hell doesn't have probowl, mvp or top 5 pick written on him anywhere.

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1 minute ago, GoBengals said:

could be wrong myself, but i think that is false, i feel like he is a UFA after that season.. ill try to find out.

from what i found, players with 3 completed years would be RFA and those with 4 completed league years would be UFA. unless there is some other circumstance, i am assuming he is UFA

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4 minutes ago, GoBengals said:

could be wrong myself, but i think that is false, i feel like he is a UFA after that season.. ill try to find out.

I "THINK" RFA is right because his first year that he spent the entire season on IR doesn't count as an accrued season because he didn't spend 6 games active.

 

from what i found, players with 3 completed years would be RFA and those with 4 completed league years would be UFA. unless there is some other circumstance, i am assuming he is UFA

See above. His first year isn't an accrued season after I googled around a bit.

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Quote

Around here this re-ignited the debate about trading AJ McCarron that stirred over the offseason. He has three more years of cheap labor since his rookie deal runs through the 2017 season and then he'd be a restricted free agent in 2018 where even the highest, first-round tender offer was $3.63 million last year.

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2016/08/31/bengals-walkthru-weighing-mccarron-trade-risk/89643344/

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Just now, TimKrumrieFan said:

I "THINK" RFA is right because his first year that he spent the entire season on IR doesn't count as an accrued season because he didn't spend 6 games active.

AHHHHH. i forgot about that

was it the whole year? how many games does it take to count the season? 6?

 

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54 minutes ago, TimKrumrieFan said:

He's a game manager. There isn't much upside. He doesn't have any of the physical skills of a top 5 pick. He's undersized and has a weak arm. He's proven he can stick in the NFL but the upside isn't there. Plus rookies get to be groomed from day 1 for that offense. AJ is older, has to learn a new offense and is somewhat groomed already. They claim your 2nd and 3rd years are where you grow the most. NFL teams have missed out on that now as this was his 3rd training camp/preseason as he enters his 3rd regular season.

I thought AJ would be a complete joke and he surprised me that he deserves to be in the NFL. I think his ceiling a Ryan Fitzpatrick type of season. He sure as hell doesn't have probowl, mvp or top 5 pick written on him anywhere.

This is complete bullshit.    First, having superior physical skills bears almost no correlation to being a great NFL QB.  Of the great QBs of the last decade, there are a bunch of guys that don't have great physical skills.  Manning (arm strength/speed), Brady (arm strength/speed), Brees (size), Wilson (arm strength/size)  And a ton of QBs that were drafted because of their great physical tools that have done jack shit with those tools (Cutler, Vince Young, RG3, Blaine Gabbert, Kyle Boller, etc.)

Second, McCarron isn't undersized.  He has ideal size.  He measured at the combine between 6'3"-6'4" tall and had the second largest hands in his draft class.  He was 220 lbs at the combine and is probably heavier than that now.   He is the exact same size as Mathew Stafford, who everyone says has ideal size.  He is roughly the same size as Mariota, Tannehill, Locker, Bradford, (all top-10 picks). He is bigger than RG3, Christian Ponder, Sanchez (all top-12 picks).  And his arm strength is fine.   He doesnt have Kyle Boller or JaMarcus Russell elite arm strength, but elite arm strength isn't remotely necessary in the NFL.  He can make every NFL throw.  It is never going to be an issue for him.

Here is a better way to make my point.  Knowing what you know right now, would you rather have McCarron, Jared Goff  or Carson Wentz?   Your choice between two guys that were worth top-3 picks 4 months ago or McCarron?  We have seen McCarron put up a 97.1 QB rating in 7 games, late in the season, against some of the best defenses in the NFL.  He has looked even better in preseason games. We have seen Carson Wentz dominate a bunch of division 2 college kids that would need a $80 ticket to get into an NFL stadium.  But Wentz is worth a top-5 pick and McCarron isn't because Wentz has marginally better physical tools?  

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20 minutes ago, BlackBengal said:

This is complete bullshit.    First, having superior physical skills bears almost no correlation to being a great NFL QB.  Of the great QBs of the last decade, there are a bunch of guys that don't have great physical skills.  Manning (arm strength/speed), Brady (arm strength/speed), Brees (size), Wilson (arm strength/size)  And a ton of QBs that were drafted because of their great physical tools that have done jack shit with those tools (Cutler, Vince Young, RG3, Blaine Gabbert, Kyle Boller, etc.)

Second, McCarron isn't undersized.  He has ideal size.  He measured at the combine between 6'3"-6'4" tall and had the second largest hands in his draft class.  He was 220 lbs at the combine and is probably heavier than that now.   He is the exact same size as Mathew Stafford, who everyone says has ideal size.  He is roughly the same size as Mariota, Tannehill, Locker, Bradford, (all top-10 picks). He is bigger than RG3, Christian Ponder, Sanchez (all top-12 picks).  And his arm strength is fine.   He doesnt have Kyle Boller or JaMarcus Russell elite arm strength, but elite arm strength isn't remotely necessary in the NFL.  He can make every NFL throw.  It is never going to be an issue for him.

Here is a better way to make my point.  Knowing what you know right now, would you rather have McCarron, Jared Goff  or Carson Wentz?   Your choice between two guys that were worth top-3 picks 4 months ago or McCarron?  We have seen McCarron put up a 97.1 QB rating in 7 games, late in the season, against some of the best defenses in the NFL.  He has looked even better in preseason games. We have seen Carson Wentz dominate a bunch of division 2 college kids that would need a $80 ticket to get into an NFL stadium.  But Wentz is worth a top-5 pick and McCarron isn't because Wentz has marginally better physical tools?  

Plus-1 to everything this guy said.

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I do think some of you are way overvaluing McCarron at this stage given such a small sample size of seeing what he can do on the field in real games that count. We all like him because he's on our team and he's looked pretty good so far but I for one am not ready to crown him as a top-tier NFL starting QB worthy of TWO first round picks just yet.

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19 minutes ago, Bunghole said:

I do think some of you are way overvaluing McCarron at this stage given such a small sample size of seeing what he can do on the field in real games that count. We all like him because he's on our team and he's looked pretty good so far but I for one am not ready to crown him as a top-tier NFL starting QB worthy of TWO first round picks just yet.

A top-tier starting QB is worth way more than 2 first round picks.  Peyton Manning in his prime was worth 7 or 8 first round picks.  

A top-tier unproven QB prospect, that has as much chance of being a complete bust as he dies being a good QB is worth 2 first round picks.  

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2 minutes ago, BlackBengal said:

A top-tier starting QB is worth way more than 2 first round picks.  Peyton Manning in his prime was worth 7 or 8 first round picks.  

A top-tier unproven QB prospect, that has as much chance of being a complete bust as he dies being a good QB is worth 2 first round picks.  

Yes, a top-tier QB is worth more than that. McCarron is not that nor is he likely to ever be. And no QB not named Manning or Brady in their primes are worth as many first rounders as that. There's a reason McCarron was drafted in the fifth round.

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