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2017 Comp picks?


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I've been thinking they might get fairly decent comp picks for Nelson and Sugar Tits, but forgot about losing Marvin Jones and Sunu.  The only in-coming FA I can think of is Dansby and I'm not even sure he enters into the Comp equation.  Does anyone have an educated guess on how many we may be looking at abd where they might fall?  With decent comps & possibly some kind of premium pick(s) (I'd like a 2nd & a 4th or 5th, but not sure of the market) for McCarron, they might have the flexibility to move up in a round or two using our normal picks or any that come in a deal.

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9 hours ago, snarkster said:

I've been thinking they might get fairly decent comp picks for Nelson and Sugar Tits, but forgot about losing Marvin Jones and Sunu.  The only in-coming FA I can think of is Dansby and I'm not even sure he enters into the Comp equation.  Does anyone have an educated guess on how many we may be looking at abd where they might fall?  With decent comps & possibly some kind of premium pick(s) (I'd like a 2nd & a 4th or 5th, but not sure of the market) for McCarron, they might have the flexibility to move up in a round or two using our normal picks or any that come in a deal.

They don't move around, and when they do they draft Russell Bodine.

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On 12/28/2016 at 0:26 PM, Madieu Superstar said:

They don't move around, and when they do they draft Russell Bodine.

They don't do it a lot, but they do move around at times.

The bengals have been pretty lucky with draft picks they got in exchange for players (Bernard, Iloka, Marvin Jones, Kirkpatrick, Jeremi Johnson, Madieu Williams), and we got an All-Pro player (Deltha O'Neal) for a draft pick,  but the results are mixed when they just move around and exchange picks (Bodine, Brandon Thompson, Chris Perry, Robert Geathers, Stacy Andrews)

We won't mention Ki-Jana, but with the pick that we got to trade back and take Klinger we drafted a Pro Bowl safety (Darryl Williams). Unfortunately he was a Pro Bowler for the Seahawks after he left the Bengals.

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4 minutes ago, snarkster said:

A fifth or sixth round comp could be more valuable this year than most.  One could turn into a 10-year PK.

Speaking of, Carlson returned to school.  But the ASU kicker, Zane Gonzalez, is coming out and pretty good.

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OverTheCap is projecting two 4ths (for Jones and Sanu) and two 6ths (for Nelson and Andre Smith): http://overthecap.com/projecting-2017-compensatory-draft-picks/#more-12905 

Sanu is close to the 4th/5th cut-off, so he may end up as a 5th instead of a 4th. Nelson is close to the 5th/6th cut-off, so he may end up as a 5th instead of a 6th.

In short, we're probably looking at a 4th for Jones, a 6th for Andre Smith, and either a 4th or 5th for Sanu, and either a 5th or 6th for Nelson. That's lots of picks to potentially improve an aging defense.

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1 hour ago, SlantNGo said:

OverTheCap is projecting two 4ths (for Jones and Sanu) and two 6ths (for Nelson and Andre Smith). Sanu is close to the 4th/5th cut-off, so he may end up as a 5th instead of a 4th. Nelson is close to the 5th/6th cut-off, so he may end up as a 5th instead of a 6th.

In short, we're probably looking at a 4th for Jones, a 6th for Andre Smith, and either a 4th or 5th for Sanu, and either a 5th or 6th for Nelson. That's lots of picks to potentially improve an aging defense.

Once you get to the comp picks after the 4th round you are down around pick #150.  At that point finding a good player is totally random and all about luck.  But I guess having 4 extra picks increases the chances of finding agood player.  Kind of like buying more lottery tickets.

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OverTheCap is projecting two 4ths (for Jones and Sanu) and two 6ths (for Nelson and Andre Smith). Sanu is close to the 4th/5th cut-off, so he may end up as a 5th instead of a 4th. Nelson is close to the 5th/6th cut-off, so he may end up as a 5th instead of a 6th.

Every reputable projection I've seen has the Bengals getting a pair of 4's and a pair of 6's.

I think OverTheCap has it right. Assuming they do, the Bengals would have six of the first 150 picks...

R1. 9
R2. 41
R3. 73
R4. 109
C1. 138
C2. 145

If McCarron is traded for picks, that would be at least one more.

Frankly, seven Top 150 picks plus William Jackson III and Andrew Billings is a few too many premium "rookies" for this roster. This is a draft SCREAMING for the Bengals to make a significant trade up - at least once.


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17 hours ago, Big Alice said:


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Frankly, seven Top 150 picks plus William Jackson III and Andrew Billings is a few too many premium "rookies" for this roster. This is a draft SCREAMING for the Bengals to make a significant trade up - at least once.
 

I agree that we don't have room for all those picks, but trading up is a total crap shoot.  I think it is probably better to keep a high number of picks because that increases the chances of finding a good player in the 5th round or later.  There arec always some good players found later in the draft, but finding one is more about luck than scouting skills.  The very best teams in the league don't really find more good players in the 5th or later than the bad teams.

 

In 2012 we got both George Iloka and Marvin Jones in the 5th round. Burkehead and Uzomah are both 5th rounders. 6th rounder Derron Smith has not shown a lot yet, but I think he should be competing for a starting spot.  Fanene and Houshmandzadeh were both 7th rounders.  Clinton McDonald, a DT we took in the 7th round in '10, had 5.5 sacks for the '13 Super Bowl Champion Seahawks and has been a starter for the last three years in Tamp Bay.

Those random guys are out there, so having a lot more late round picks increases our chances of getting one.  Plus late round picks have so little trade value you can't really move up much by giving them up.

The only way I would really want to give up a draft pick would be if we had to package one with McCarron in order to get a pick in the top 10 of the second round.  There are still some great players on the board there.

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