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How does Gio's injury effect our RB roster situation?


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21 hours ago, kennethmw said:

 

On 1/25/2017 at 8:06 AM, fredtoast said:

18th in total yards

8th in tds

31st in yards per carry among all RBs with at least 100 carries

He is clearly among the top 32.

Yep.  All facts.  None of which prove he is a good #1 RB.  

How about actually telling us why he is a good RB?  

His stats, other than TDs, are pedestrian.  Most of us have seen his numerous examples of making bad decisions with the ball.  Dancing, cutting the wrong way, etc.  Yes, the OL is an issue, but so is his decision making ability.  Football isn't strat-o-matic.  There is more to it than statistics.

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I actually like Peerman a lot and have defended keeping him on the roster as a special team ace.  But that was when we had good RB depth.  Peerman should only be playing on offense in emergency situations.
Bernard did not tear his ACL until the end of November.  I am expecting him to start the season on PUP, but even if he doesn't I doubt he will be 100% recovered by the start of the season.  In fact some players don't get back to "normal" until the next season.  Bernard is under contract for three more years at only $3.43 million per year.  He is a bargain and is not going anywhere.
Hill is only making $887K next year.  He is nothing special, but he is not garbage like many around here claim.  He is a top 32 RB in a 32 team league, and is a bargain for his price in '17.  He is not going anywhere this year, but if he does not improve dramatically we should let him go after that.
Burkhead.  I think he is getting overvalued by many people around here.  He has shown that he can play in the NFL,  but will any team be willing to pay him a big veteran's salary when they can take a chance on a rookie for a fraction of the price?  I think he will end up being re-signed by the Bengals.  If Bernard was not coming off an injury we would probably roll with another rookie and let BUrkhead walk.
So what happen's too Peerman?  If the Bengals don't re-sign Burkhead then they will probably sign a cheap free agent to a one year deal, but they could still draft a big back to have ready if Hill leaves in '18.  They could possibly draft 2, but i don't think that is very likely at all.
How do you guys think it will shake out?  I think Peerman might lose his roster spot for RB depth because Gio will not be available at the start of the year.  If we can not sign Burkhead then we will probably sign another cheap free agent to a one year deal.  Then I see us drafting a bigger RB to be ready for Hill leaving after this season.
I don't see any way we use the #9 pick on a RB.

They proved they value peerman over depth when they brought him back over wjiii. Peerman will be on the roster he's a badass in the return game and we need that. Bulkhead will not be on the roster. maybe draft a guy like mixon, foreman, or Samuel in the draft.

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16 hours ago, UncleEarl said:

Yep.  All facts.  None of which prove he is a good #1 RB.  

How about actually telling us why he is a good RB?  

His stats, other than TDs, are pedestrian.  Most of us have seen his numerous examples of making bad decisions with the ball.  Dancing, cutting the wrong way, etc.  Yes, the OL is an issue, but so is his decision making ability.  Football isn't strat-o-matic.  There is more to it than statistics.

I am not saying he is a great RB.  I am saying he is one of the top 32 in the league.

Football is not won or lost on "style points" like ice skating.  It is won based on production of points. 

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20 minutes ago, fredtoast said:

I am not saying he is a great RB.  I am saying he is one of the top 32 in the league.

Football is not won or lost on "style points" like ice skating.  It is won based on production of points. 

So, essentially you are arguing over some detail that has little to do with if Hill is an asset or liability.  Good job.  You are right, but so what?

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1 hour ago, UncleEarl said:

So, essentially you are arguing over some detail that has little to do with if Hill is an asset or liability.  Good job.  You are right, but so what?

What does this even mean? I am directly addressing hills value to our team.  It will not be easy to replace his production for the cost.  There simply are not a lot of available rbs who are more

productive than hill.

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On 1/27/2017 at 10:28 AM, fredtoast said:

What does this even mean? I am directly addressing hills value to our team.  It will not be easy to replace his production for the cost.  There simply are not a lot of available rbs who are more

productive than hill.

I'm sure we can draft plenty of RBs who can average 3.7 yards a carry.  And his TDs are more a result of opportunity than skill.

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I believe the average shelf life for a NFL RB is right around 6 seasons.  Gio is entering his 6th, Hill his 5th and neither seems on an upward trajectory.  About time to start grooming a new bellcow (especially if Burkhead walks).  Personally I'd like to see a draft pick, Bernard AND Rex.   I hold out some hope for a bounceback by Gio, but little for Jeremy.

Not big on 1st RB's, but love Dalvin Cook and probably wouldn't b!tch much (same for Williams @ WR) although I really think we need a body on the front seven that can help pressure the QB.

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13 minutes ago, snarkster said:

I believe the average shelf life for a NFL RB is right around 6 seasons.  Gio is entering his 6th, Hill his 5th and neither seems on an upward trajectory.  About time to start grooming a new bellcow (especially if Burkhead walks).  Personally I'd like to see a draft pick, Bernard AND Rex.   I hold out some hope for a bounceback by Gio, but little for Jeremy.

Not big on 1st RB's, but love Dalvin Cook and probably wouldn't b!tch much (same for Williams @ WR) although I really think we need a body on the front seven that can help pressure the QB.

I will only add that the shelf life might be around 6 years but I think that would reflect a RB in a one back system. Jeremy Hill has had 667 NFL Carries in 3 seasons. Gio has had 583 in 4 seasons.

DeMarco Murry (a Bellcow) had 542 carries in 3 seasons and 934 after 4 seasons. In Murray 6 season (1st with Titans) he had 293 carries for 1,287 yards for a 4.4  ypc.

Adrian had 915 carries after 3 years and 1,198 after four. Adrian Peterson had his 2k season in his 6 year and 2 more 1,200 season after 6 years. Of course Adrian is a one of a kind talent.

I still think Hill can be great but he has a problem....he needs to decide if he is a power back or a speed back. 

Maybe I just don't see so much of a need for a RB to take with a high pick. Rather spend it on a WR that can keep the defense out of the box.

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1 hour ago, speed3me said:

I will only add that the shelf life might be around 6 years but I think that would reflect a RB in a one back system. Jeremy Hill has had 667 NFL Carries in 3 seasons. Gio has had 583 in 4 seasons.

DeMarco Murry (a Bellcow) had 542 carries in 3 seasons and 934 after 4 seasons. In Murray 6 season (1st with Titans) he had 293 carries for 1,287 yards for a 4.4  ypc.

Adrian had 915 carries after 3 years and 1,198 after four. Adrian Peterson had his 2k season in his 6 year and 2 more 1,200 season after 6 years. Of course Adrian is a one of a kind talent.

I still think Hill can be great but he has a problem....he needs to decide if he is a power back or a speed back. 

Maybe I just don't see so much of a need for a RB to take with a high pick. Rather spend it on a WR that can keep the defense out of the box.

I'm not so worried about the # of carries for Hill and Gio.  I'm more concerned about their durability.  They seem more susceptible to injury and I don't see that really improving at a position that takes as much punishment as any on the field.  Not really pimping Cook, but do really like him and was just saying I wouldn't be that pissed if they took him even though he's not my first or second choice.  Kinda bummed that a long rangy DE doesn't appear to be an option @ 9 - not thrilled with Thomas or Barnett.  Right now, Foster & Williams are 1 & 1A for me.  Really like Hooker & Adams, but again, don't like the thought of using a Top 10 on a safety.

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I will only add that the shelf life might be around 6 years but I think that would reflect a RB in a one back system. Jeremy Hill has had 667 NFL Carries in 3 seasons. Gio has had 583 in 4 seasons.
DeMarco Murry (a Bellcow) had 542 carries in 3 seasons and 934 after 4 seasons. In Murray 6 season (1st with Titans) he had 293 carries for 1,287 yards for a 4.4  ypc.
Adrian had 915 carries after 3 years and 1,198 after four. Adrian Peterson had his 2k season in his 6 year and 2 more 1,200 season after 6 years. Of course Adrian is a one of a kind talent.
I still think Hill can be great but he has a problem....he needs to decide if he is a power back or a speed back. 
Maybe I just don't see so much of a need for a RB to take with a high pick. Rather spend it on a WR that can keep the defense out of the box.

I'm really high on mixon with a comp pick. He's probably a millimeter under cook and we could get him in 5th.

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I'm not so worried about the # of carries for Hill and Gio.  I'm more concerned about their durability.  They seem more susceptible to injury and I don't see that really improving at a position that takes as much punishment as any on the field.  Not really pimping Cook, but do really like him and was just saying I wouldn't be that pissed if they took him even though he's not my first or second choice.  Kinda bummed that a long rangy DE doesn't appear to be an option @ 9 - not thrilled with Thomas or Barnett.  Right now, Foster & Williams are 1 & 1A for me.  Really like Hooker & Adams, but again, don't like the thought of using a Top 10 on a safety.

Which Williams Mike or Tim? And if we hadn't locked up Shawn Williams to a long term I would be all over hooker. He's Eric berry and ed Reed rolled into one.

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16 hours ago, Jason said:

I'm sure we can draft plenty of RBs who can average 3.7 yards a carry.  And his TDs are more a result of opportunity than skill.

Then why doesn't every team in the leaguer have a few guys who average that much.

 

Of all the RBs with at least 100 carries Hill was ranked 31st.

I am not saying that Hill is great, but the facts prove that he will not eb that easy to replace.

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2 hours ago, fredtoast said:

Then why doesn't every team in the leaguer have a few guys who average that much.

 

Of all the RBs with at least 100 carries Hill was ranked 31st.

I am not saying that Hill is great, but the facts prove that he will not eb that easy to replace.

Because it is a passing league.

31st of how many?

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10 hours ago, Jpoore said:


Which Williams Mike or Tim? And if we hadn't locked up Shawn Williams to a long term I would be all over hooker. He's Eric berry and ed Reed rolled into one.

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Hooker is going to be long gone.  Everyone likes a good looking Hooker.

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12 minutes ago, westside bengal said:

 

Usually, wouldn't 31st out of 43 be considered below average?  That's in the bottom 3rd.  Don't most teams try to replace players that are below average 2 years in a row?

 An "average" starter is not that easy to replace because half of the teams in the league are starting guys that are below average.   If they were that easy to replace then every team would have one.  You can't just go plug in any random draft pick and expect him to be an above average RB.

And if you read back through my posts you will see that i am not clamoring for us to give Hill an extension.  All I am saying is that production wise he is a very good bargain for for what he will get paid this year so there is no way we will cut him.

With the salary cap a team can not go out and pay top price for top players at every single position, and the draft is not full of average NFL starters.  So when you have a guy who is producing like an average starter on his rookie contract you keep him.

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16 minutes ago, fredtoast said:

 An "average" starter is not that easy to replace because half of the teams in the league are starting guys that are below average.   If they were that easy to replace then every team would have one.  You can't just go plug in any random draft pick and expect him to be an above average RB.

And if you read back through my posts you will see that i am not clamoring for us to give Hill an extension.  All I am saying is that production wise he is a very good bargain for for what he will get paid this year so there is no way we will cut him.

With the salary cap a team can not go out and pay top price for top players at every single position, and the draft is not full of average NFL starters.  So when you have a guy who is producing like an average starter on his rookie contract you keep him.

You keep referring to Hill as average but if you have him ranked 31 out of 42, I am inclined to believe he is below average for a NFL RB.

I think the Hill question is this.....Is he the beast RB that he was 1/2 of his rookie season 3 years ago? Or is he the ordinary average/below average RB of the last 2 seasons.

I am not saying we cut him now but I sure wouldn't be hesitating in looking to draft a replacement.

 

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35 minutes ago, westside bengal said:

You keep referring to Hill as average but if you have him ranked 31 out of 42, I am inclined to believe he is below average for a NFL RB.

You think there are only 42 RBs in the NFL?

Here is all I am saying.  He is a top 32 RB and there are only 32 teams in the NFL.  That means he is a starting quality RB.  There are mutiple teams that do not have a single RB with at least 100 carries who averaged as much per carry as Hill.  And that does not even consider him being 18th in yards and 6th intds. 

 

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Having a "top 32 RB" in a 32 team league isn't really something to be excited about, but as Freddy said, Hill's value is why he's going to be here (and should be) in 2017. I've seen more than a few people across many forms of social media claiming we should cut Hill, and it doesn't make sense when you realize his cap hit in 2017 is right at the $1 million mark.

However, rookie rushers have proven to be more than capable at times, especially if you give them a line to run behind. There were 13 rookie RBs in 2016 with 50+ carries, 11 had over 75, 6 had over 100. So with that in mind, there are some small sample sizes in this stat, but, only 3 of these running backs failed to hit 4.0 or higher YPC. At least 2 of the 3 under 4.0 were on teams that struggled with the run game in general, same as the Bengals did last season.

My thoughts on Gio's injury and our run game in general is the following:

Draft OL high - get an immediate starting upgrade to at least 1 position.

Draft a mid round RB - I think Peerman OR Burkhead should be on the team in 2017. Draft a mid round (or later) replacement depending on which is on the roster. Draft whichever style of back is needed, but make sure you're ready to coach them up on ST play regardless.

Draft RB high(er) in 2018 - draft Hill's replacement in the 2nd - 3rd, assuming there's a suitable candidate there. The Bengals frustrate me with their lack of free agent signings, but RB is one position that I have no problem relying on almost solely through the draft. We don't need to be chasing a fantasy Adrian Peterson clone, we have a good starter in Gio when he's healthy and aren't built to run an offense like the Cowboys. We need the change of pace #2 with better vision and overall ability than Hill. Not saying you can just draft any guy in the 3rd round and he's going to be better than Jeremy Hill, but I'd rather trust the Bengals' scouting/coaching of another cheap 2nd/3rd rounder over paying a couple/few million per year in free agency.

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