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Dre Kirk tweet implies that he's elite


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Dre should be a priority with Adam Jones being a ticking time bomb that's going to turn 34 in September, Dennard not looking great, and WJIII being a question mark.

With that said, I can't see this organization paying him $14 million per year, nor should they. Is the $14+ mil/year the ballpark figure Dre is looking for? That's what the elite are getting paid now, and he believes he's an elite player.

Does Dre get overpaid by the Bengals this year? Does Dre get overpaid by a team not named the Bengals? Does he test the waters only to come back to reality in Cincinnati (or elsewhere) when nobody offers him what he wants?

I'd hate to see a good but not great CB get overpaid here in Cincinnati, BUT we could be looking at one of the worst pass defenses in the league in 2017 if we roll out Iloka, Williams, Dennard, WJIII, and Shaw as our starting secondary.

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when good players hit free agency they sometimes get paid like great players.  Especially at a position like CB.

I'd have to look and see what other CBs are available in free agency, but I assume Dre will get paid very well.  He was much better than many Bengals fans claimed in '15.  I have not seen his stats for '16 but he looked pretty solid again.

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We have quality depth at this position and if he hasn't signed a contract extension by now then I fully expect him to leave via free agency. Dre is a solid player, but I think this defense could handle his loss. Shaw, Dennard, WJ3, Harris-Lewis, Brown, etc..Besides there are some other quality CB's that could be had in FA to replace him for lesser value. 

I wouldn't pay him top 10 CB money, that is for sure. 

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6 minutes ago, fredtoast said:

when good players hit free agency they sometimes get paid like great players.  Especially at a position like CB.

I'd have to look and see what other CBs are available in free agency, but I assume Dre will get paid very well.  He was much better than many Bengals fans claimed in '15.  I have not seen his stats for '16 but he looked pretty solid again.

I think he played better in 2016 than 2015, but admittedly I wasn't the biggest fan of his play 2 years ago. His mechanics and general field awareness (in coverage) seemed leaps and bounds better from 1 season to the next. I don't have the in depth stats available anymore, but I wouldn't mind seeing some of them compared to other UFAs this year if you happen to have them and the time to post them.

As far as FA goes, the current list of UFA CBs may actually help the Bengals retain him instead of the other way around this year. A lot of it will come down to which players actually hit the open market, and also if there happen to be any teams specifically looking at Dre for their scheme.

Here are some notable FAs, but I haven't done much research to see if any of these guys are likely to re-sign with their current team or anything like that yet...

Trumaine Johnson

Morris Claiborne

A.J. Bouye (top 10 in PD last year)

Prince Amukamara

Captain Munnerlyn

Brandon Carr

D.J. Hayden

Stephon Gilmore

Corey White

Marcus Cooper (4 INT last season)

Darius Butler

Nolan Carroll

Josh Robinson

Greg Toler

Logan Ryan

Trevin Wade

Not trying to say all of these guys are going to get big contracts, but there are a few on the list that will be getting paid big (Johnson, Claiborne, Bouye), and also some mid-tier guys that could bring Dre's price down if a team would rather sign one of the $5-6 million per year guys instead of paying Dre $10+.

I'm hoping that if/when he tests the FA waters that he'll come back to Cincinnati at a reasonable price, but he definitely deserves a nice pay increase for his increase of performance and ability on the field.

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10 minutes ago, PatternMaster said:

We have quality depth at this position and if he hasn't signed a contract extension by now then I fully expect him to leave via free agency. Dre is a solid player, but I think this defense could handle his loss. Shaw, Dennard, WJ3, Harris-Lewis, Brown, etc..Besides there are some other quality CB's that could be had in FA to replace him for lesser value. 

I wouldn't pay him top 10 CB money, that is for sure. 

I don't know. Dre, Shaw, WJIII, Dennard sounds infinitely better to me than Shaw, WJIII, Dennard, Brown.

BTW, you know Clark Lewis-Harris plays in Baltimore now, right?

I could see other teams that already have great #1 CBs buying into those cheaper, "quality" free agent CBs because they're looking for a #2/3 kind of guy. We're looking for our #1 here, and you know for a fact that we aren't going to be paying Trumaine Johnson or Mo Claiborne. I'd rather sign Dre for $10 million per than try to bargain hunt while hoping WJIII can start.

I wouldn't give Dre top 5 money, that's where you're getting into the $14 million range of the new elite CBs. I don't think I'd fault the organization for paying him around $10 though. The cap keeps rising, so play salaries will rise as well. $10 million per year for say, 3-5 years would be a reasonable rate for a guy that's a capable starting CB...especially when we don't have anyone else on the team that's a guaranteed capable starter.

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1 hour ago, omgdrdoom said:

I don't know. Dre, Shaw, WJIII, Dennard sounds infinitely better to me than Shaw, WJIII, Dennard, Brown.

BTW, you know Clark Lewis-Harris plays in Baltimore now, right?

I could see other teams that already have great #1 CBs buying into those cheaper, "quality" free agent CBs because they're looking for a #2/3 kind of guy. We're looking for our #1 here, and you know for a fact that we aren't going to be paying Trumaine Johnson or Mo Claiborne. I'd rather sign Dre for $10 million per than try to bargain hunt while hoping WJIII can start.

I wouldn't give Dre top 5 money, that's where you're getting into the $14 million range of the new elite CBs. I don't think I'd fault the organization for paying him around $10 though. The cap keeps rising, so play salaries will rise as well. $10 million per year for say, 3-5 years would be a reasonable rate for a guy that's a capable starting CB...especially when we don't have anyone else on the team that's a guaranteed capable starter.

A legend in his own mind.  Still though, I'd like to see them re-up him at something "reasonable" if possible.  With the extra picks we have, I wouldn't mind a mid-to-late round CB & Safety - Shaw & Smith clones would be fine.  Maybe a Slot CB/S combo guy as the Safety.

CB

Kirkpatrick

Jackson

Denard

Shaw

(Pick)

Safety

Iloka

Williams

Smith

Fejedelem

(Pick)

 

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In 2015 a lot of fans were crucifying Dre.  It seemed like all they saw all year was a couple of plays from the first drive of the Stealers game and the PFF ranking that had him at 100 something in the league among CBs.  But Dre actually played very well in '15.  He played 97% of the snaps on a pass defense that was top 5 in the league.  ProFootballOutsiders had him ranked 8th (among the 75 CBs who qualified) in average yards allowed per target, 19th in completion percentage allowed, and 32nd in success rate.  He was also 3rd in total tackles by a CB and in the top 20 in passes defended.

 

I know he did not have as many tackles in '16 as '15, but I have not seen any of the FO coverage numbers for 2016.

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11 hours ago, BengalFanInTO said:

Dre Kirkpatrick is not a #1 CB...pay him like one and you'll regret it. Guy is a legend in his own mind. Please don't do the typical Bengal thing and say we could do worse so we should keep him. Think about how much better we could do and if the price ain't right...let him walk.

 

Never was a fan of that DreSwagYoloTrill crap & Pacman's mentorship hasn't done him any favors.

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11 hours ago, BengalFanInTO said:

Dre Kirkpatrick is not a #1 CB...pay him like one and you'll regret it. Guy is a legend in his own mind. Please don't do the typical Bengal thing and say we could do worse so we should keep him. Think about how much better we could do and if the price ain't right...let him walk.

Please don't do the typical message board poster thing and say to let him walk without having a legitimate replacement on the roster and knowing we aren't going to sign any top free agents. How on earth is that making the team better? CB is the last position we can just draft and assume he's going to be able to be a #1 or #2 corner on the team.

Listen, I'm no Bengals homer and I think a lot of the issues start at the top around this organization, but letting a proven, young player walk just because of some internet message board narrative is absurd. I've never agreed with Fred and others that have said Dre is anything better than mediocre prior to this past year, but in 2016 Dre has proven that he's earned another contract, and CBs get paid in this league. He showed some good things in 2015, and then made the next step in progress in 2016. He's a capable starting CB whether anyone on here wants to admit that or not.

Is Dre Kirkpatrick elite? Nope. He's turned into a pretty damn good football player as of late though, and this team is much better with him than without him. Have you seen anyone else on the team chasing guys down 30 years up the field after Iloka, Jones, Dennard, Williams, or Shaw got burned? How many times did we see Dre run across the field and save a big TD for us? It looked like he was the only guy showing any kind of hustle out there. I was pleasantly surprised with the guy this past season. I surely didn't expect him to play so well in coverage either, but he did. I watched every other defensive back on this team get burned on a regular basis more often than Dre did.

You know we aren't going to go out and sign one of the other top FA, especially when we have our own homegrown player at the position ready to become a UFA. We're either paying Dre or taking ANOTHER first round CB. What's the point in drafting all of these guys with high picks if we're going to let them walk once they finally develop into good players? The notion that we shouldn't pay a good starting CB the money that good starting CBs command is kind of silly. I made this thread because I think it's funny that Dre thinks he's elite, and I really hope we wouldn't pay the guy Josh Norman money, but you other people are really undervaluing the player Dre Kirk has become.

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Dre Kirkpatrick gave up an average of 4.9 yards per pass in the 2016 regular season. For comparison, teammates Adam Jones (6.1), Josh Shaw (7.1), and Darqueze Dennard (13.0) have all given up more yards per pass than Dre.

There were 84 "qualified" CBs in the league last year. To become qualified for the chart, a CB must have hit 1 of the 3 following attributes in the past season - 3.5 targets per team game, 50 targets for the season, or 8 games started for the season.

In the yards per pass category compared to the NFL, not just his teammates, Dre ranked 6th with his 4.9 yards/pass.

He ranked T-22 giving up 1.4 YAC on average. This is a good number.

Dre gave up 7.1 yards per pass and 3.7 YAC in 2015. Obviously he has improved significantly in those stats in 2016. During the 2015 season, Dre was targeted 93 times while Adam Jones across from him was only targeted 55 times. During the 2016 season, Dre was targeted 68 times while Adam Jones had 60 passes thrown his way. Now, #1 and #2 CBs are going to see more targets than other players just for the simple fact that they're covering the better receivers who get more looks from the QB, even when they're covered. BUT, it shows a lot when Dre went from being near the top of the target list in the NFL to barely being the most targeted on his team, especially when playing almost the same number of snaps as the previous year. It shows that we had some other defensive backs being picked on, and they weren't Dre or even Adam Jones (except we all saw Jones get beat pretty badly on a handful of plays last year).

An interesting note, stat wise, Dre had a year that was eerily similar to First Team All-Pro Aqib Talib.

Dre - 4.9 yards per pass, 1.4 YAC, 68 targets, 10 passes defended, 3 INT, 35 tackles, 11 tackle assists, 46 total tackles

Talib - 4.3 yards per pass, 1.4 YAC, 58 targets, 12 passes defended, 3 INT, 32 tackles, 11 tackle assists, 43 total tackles

Not saying Dre = Talib, but the stats are quite similar and it's interesting how one got All Pro honors and the other is considered a scrub among many Bengals' fans.

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13 minutes ago, Le Tigre said:

You have convinced me.

One other thing: why do people get so worked up over what some guy gets paid, in an entertainment business where EVERYONE gets paid obscene money?

 

I hear you because I correct people talking about pro athletes being "overpaid" in general.  They are paid what the market allows, just like everyone else. Blame our priorities, not the guy cashing in. Yay capitalism.

As far as a specific player, however? It's because of the salary cap.  Paying DreK based on his ego vs his performance could mean the difference in an extension for another player or bringing in a solid FA at another spot.

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13 minutes ago, Le Tigre said:

You have convinced me.

One other thing: why do people get so worked up over what some guy gets paid, in an entertainment business where EVERYONE gets paid obscene money? 

And lol@ Superstar Josh Shaw's YPC against--7.1

I wish I had more information on Shaw, because I find him to be a very interesting player. He's one of the few message board fan favorites that I believe actually has SOME merit to the love. Let's look into the stats.

He played about 57% of the defensive snaps, which is slightly more than I thought he played to be honest.

An interesting statistic. I posted the 4 CB's yards per pass against, and they all ranged anywhere from Dre's 4.9 to Dennard's very, very concerning 13.0. With that said, all of their yards per pass through the air are within 1.5 yards of each other. The lowest being 10 and the highest at 11.5, this isn't the case for almost every other team's set of DBs. Kind of crazy. It's much more varied for every other team, especially when their general YPC against vary so much. Just as an example, here's Baltimore's CBs...

YPC against - 4.7, 5.8. 6.7, 8.2

Through air - 13.2, 9.7, 6.8, 12.7

Was there just a sweet spot for opposing QBs where they'd complete 10-ish yard passes against our defense more often than the average team? Or was it a mix between short and long passes that just happened to average out to around 10 - 11 YPC through the air against ALL of our top 4 CBs?

Anyway, back to Shaw...

His yards per pass against isn't horrible. 7.1 is more middle of the road than an awful number. His "success rate" is actually pretty good compared to others around the league and even his teammates. The Success Rate statistic is if the offense didn't meet the criteria of an "offensive success" and to FBO, that means 45% of yardage on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd down. Shaw was actually 7th out of the 84 CBs qualified in having a "successful" snap. Looking at targets it doesn't seem like Shaw was picked on any more or less than other CBs on the Bengals, I'd LOVE to have access to more in depth stats though, such as the 3rd downs you mentioned earlier. His "success rate" is fairly high, but I do recall being pissed at Shaw more than once this season because of a big letdown on 3rd and medium. Shaw only had 1 INT and 3 PD though, so he made plays on a total of 4 passes thrown his way, which is a bit lower than you want to see, but he has room for improvement.

The good news is that I don't think we ever have to worry about relying on Josh Shaw being our #1 or even #2 CB. The bad news is that I do think we have to hope he can be good enough that we don't have to play Darqueze Dennard unless he drastically improves, man did Dennard just look slow and mechanically unfit to play CB last year or what. Dre/WJIII/Shaw could be the corners of the future. Let's lock Dre up for 5 years, get WJ on the field, and see Shaw make a leap in 2017!

OH, and to the whole caring about player salary, I just don't want to see the team pay $15 million for a player that isn't a rare, shut down elite kind of guy when there's a salary cap and we need to have money for other positions too. I don't mind seeing Dre get paid at all though, especially after his very good 2016 campaign. Give the man $10 million or so per year, he's our #1 now.

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The Bengals are on the hook for $14 million for Pacman Jones over the next two years. Cutting him saves about $12 million. Take that and put it towards a contract for Kirkpatrick. Pay him an average of $8-9 million over four years and I can swallow it. I'm still not going to like the taste but, I can get it down.

It's times like this when we need a Mike Zimmer reclamation project ala Jones or Newman. I am not a fan of tying our can to Kirkpatrick. I didn't like selecting him in the first place and he's done very little to change my opinion. Chuck up all the stats you like, I've watched him play and I'm underwhelmed.

At the end of the day the reality is that the Bengals have seen precious little from their three first round CBs over the past five years. That leaves them in what I feel is a predicament. They are all but forced to re-sign a guy that they may have let walk under different circumstances. WJIII gets a pass but Dennard has been a MAJOR disappointment.

The Bengals need to focus on their offensive and defensive lines. Re-signing Zeitler and Whitworth are the top two priorities. They cannot allow that offensive line to get even worse. There's no way you can let re-signing Kirkpatrick interfere with having those guys return and adding more talent to both lines. If they can accomplish it all...great but, if not...see ya Swag.

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I don't think the Bengals have much choice but to pay Dre.  He's a good CB.  Replace him with one that is not good and you will notice the difference.  The Bengals have some gaping holes to fill (OL, LB, DL) and they don't need to add another at CB.  Jones may be out of here or suspended for several games.  Pay the guy what he is worth.  If someone offers  him stupid money, well, I guess he'll go.  I can see $12M for him as that's what good CBs make.

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4 minutes ago, BengalFanInTO said:


I am not a fan of tying our can to Kirkpatrick. I didn't like selecting him in the first place and he's done very little to change my opinion. Chuck up all the stats you like, I've watched him play and I'm underwhelmed.
 

This is classic "confirmation bias".  Since you didn't like him before you even saw him play as a Bengal your judgement is impaired.

You see what you want to see when you watch him play.  

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The reality is that Kirkpatrick is not overpaid if someone else is willing to offer him the same deal. Nothing about the Bengal's operation makes me think they're going to go in and offer him $2M per yer over market because Kirk says he's elite. If anything, they'll lowball him and have him choose the same deal elsewhere out of spite.

If you look at the list of guys hitting FA this year, Dre's not at the top of that list. There's not a dozen $15M a year contracts being handed out every year at his position. He can ask for $15M all day, but it's not going to be there. If you google any talk about him signing elsewhere, it's usually with the caveat that he comes at a discount. He's "cheaper" that Clairborne and Gilmore. (Some sites have him available for ~$5M a year)

I see a bunch of posts saying that we have WJIII and Dennard on the team so we don't need to resign him. This is classic "grass is greener" mentality. If you're going to say Kirk sucks, what have Dennard and Jackson shown? "Hey, that guy the coaches put #4 on the depth chart - he's the answer!" "Hey, that guy who didn't take a snap all year - He's going to start 16 games for us and be elite next year!"

Kirkpatrick already was making $7.5M last year. Alongside one Adam Jones we need to cut. We have $45M in cap space this year. Are you saying we can't afford him? Would you rather keep Jones?

Dump him and pick up another FA? You only get 22 guys on the field. So... Another Karlos Dansby? What position would you like to make stronger at the cost of losing your #1 CB? Especially at a time when we need to be cutting ties with our #2 CB.

If Dennard was worth starting over Kirk, I assume he would have. Instead he got buried behind Shaw. If he was better than Jones, he would have been the #2 guy. I'm not going to go cheap with the guy currently manning the #1 spot based on the notion we might need to sign our #4 CB next year. Bumping Dre's salary $3.5M and cutting Jones leaves us with more cap room than we had last year. And IMHO, an $11M average is a worst case scenario. I'd even extend the franchise tag at $14.4 Million if we had to, because it's just a one year deal.

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23 hours ago, LostInDaJungle said:

The reality is that Kirkpatrick is not overpaid if someone else is willing to offer him the same deal. Nothing about the Bengal's operation makes me think they're going to go in and offer him $2M per yer over market because Kirk says he's elite. If anything, they'll lowball him and have him choose the same deal elsewhere out of spite.

If you look at the list of guys hitting FA this year, Dre's not at the top of that list. There's not a dozen $15M a year contracts being handed out every year at his position. He can ask for $15M all day, but it's not going to be there. If you google any talk about him signing elsewhere, it's usually with the caveat that he comes at a discount. He's "cheaper" that Clairborne and Gilmore. (Some sites have him available for ~$5M a year)

I see a bunch of posts saying that we have WJIII and Dennard on the team so we don't need to resign him. This is classic "grass is greener" mentality. If you're going to say Kirk sucks, what have Dennard and Jackson shown? "Hey, that guy the coaches put #4 on the depth chart - he's the answer!" "Hey, that guy who didn't take a snap all year - He's going to start 16 games for us and be elite next year!"

Kirkpatrick already was making $7.5M last year. Alongside one Adam Jones we need to cut. We have $45M in cap space this year. Are you saying we can't afford him? Would you rather keep Jones?

Dump him and pick up another FA? You only get 22 guys on the field. So... Another Karlos Dansby? What position would you like to make stronger at the cost of losing your #1 CB? Especially at a time when we need to be cutting ties with our #2 CB.

If Dennard was worth starting over Kirk, I assume he would have. Instead he got buried behind Shaw. If he was better than Jones, he would have been the #2 guy. I'm not going to go cheap with the guy currently manning the #1 spot based on the notion we might need to sign our #4 CB next year. Bumping Dre's salary $3.5M and cutting Jones leaves us with more cap room than we had last year. And IMHO, an $11M average is a worst case scenario. I'd even extend the franchise tag at $14.4 Million if we had to, because it's just a one year deal.

Excellent post.:good3:

 

It is funny how free agency works.  A player's value is often determined by who else is a free agent the same year. Dre is a very good CB but this years free agent market is loaded with good young CBs.  I just did a quick un-scientific google poll of 5 different sites that rated free agent CBs.  Here is the general consensus.  A.j. Bouye (26) is the clear #1 target.  After that there is a group that includes Trumain Johnson (27), Malcolm Butler (27), Stephon Gilmore (26), Logan Ryan (26) and Mo Claiborne (27).  Kirkpatrick (27) seems to be in a third tier that also includes Prince Amukamura (28), Deshawn Shead (29), and Captain Munnerlyn (29).

I think when it is all done Dre will be paid more like the guys in the second tier than the third.  But I seriously doubt he comes close to the top 5 contracts for CBs this year.  Teams looking to sign CBs are in good shape this year because there are a lot of good young guys that could hit the market, but it also drives down the contracts for all of the CBs.  I am guessing Dre gets a deal that averages $10+million a year.  And I think the Bengals need to pay him.  But if just 2 or 3 of those other rop guys had re-signed and were not on the market Dre could be looking at close to $15 million a year.  Teams overpay when talent is thin.

We can afford to pay Dre, Whit, and Zeitler all $10 million a year.

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