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http://www.si.com/nfl/2017/01/30/nfl-mock-draft-2017-myles-garrett-reuben-foster

2017 NFL Mock Draft 5.0: An abundance of defensive talent in the first round

CHRIS BURKE

Monday January 30th, 2017

One thing has become clear over the first few 2017 mock draft runs: There is going to be an abundance of defensive talent available in Rounds 2 and 3.

No matter how I plot out those opening 32 picks, there are a good five to 10 other defenders it’s tough to exclude because of how talented they are. Those teams in need of edge rushers and cornerbacks, in particular, stand to be quite happy with what they find when the draft reconvenes for Day Two on April 28.

For now, though, we’re focused on who did make the cut for Round 1. The latest mock:

1 Cleveland Browns

MYLES GARRETT

DE, TEXAS A&M

Longtime Cleveland offensive tackle Joe Thomas said last week that the Browns should take a pass rusher at No. 1. Listen to the man. Cleveland can circle back on QB at pick No. 12 or No. 33 (or use those picks to trade back into the top 10). Up top, it should take the best available prospect.

2 San Francisco 49ers

REUBEN FOSTER

LB, ALABAMA

If the 49ers don’t love one of the quarterbacks, a trade down has to be their top option. They can the Bears’ unsettled QB situation as leverage in floating the pick. But hypothetically, should they stay put and pass on a quarterback, what’s the play? Jonathan Allen is a bit of a redundant piece given the young talent they already have on the D-line. Foster is not. Pair him with NaVorro Bowman and San Francisco’s linebacking corps could be as good up the middle as any in the league.

3 Da Bears

DESHAUN WATSON

QB, CLEMSON

A similar conversation at 3 as at 2: what happens if the pick isn’t a QB? Defense is the obvious choice, but the Bears could look WR if Alshon Jeffery leaves. Sooner or later, though, they have to draft a quarterback. Watson has his detractors, but his experience will help him separate from the pack.

4 Jacksonville Jaguars

JONATHAN ALLEN

DL, ALABAMA

The Jaguars already have building blocks in place along their D-line: Yannick Ngakoue, Malik Jackson, Dante Fowler (assuming his development accelerates). That shouldn’t keep them from taking Allen here. The Alabama product can be an immediate starter as a 4–3 or 3–4 end, with the quickness to kick down and push the pocket as a DT.

 

5 Tennessee Titans

JAMAL ADAMS

S, LSU

(Pick via Rams) The last safety selected in the top five was Eric Berry, by Kansas City. It’s safe to say Tennessee would take a Berry-esque impact right here. Maybe it’s setting the bar too high to say that Adams will be a perennial Pro Bowler, but he can be. He plays like a linebacker against the run and like a cover corner when diagnosing pass plays.

6 NY Jets

MITCH TRUBISKY

QB, NORTH CAROLINA

How quickly are the Jets willing to admit they botched the Christian Hackenberg pick last year? Even if the answer is “not yet,” they will be adding a quarterback to compete for the starting job. Rather than pick through the veteran retreads, diving in headfirst with Trubisky would provide hope for the future. Trubisky needs time—or he’ll make a lot of mistakes, if forced to play early—but his upside may be greater than any ’17 QB.

7  Someplace Chargers

MALIK HOOKER

S, OHIO STATE

As a tackler in run defense, Hooker will overpursue and tends to lead with his shoulder, both of which can cause problems. A reminder, though, that he spent just one season as a starter at Ohio State. And as a coverage safety he is unparalleled in this class. Put him in the L.A. secondary, and he’d only make guys like Jason Verrett and Casey Hayward better.

8 Carolina Panthers

LEONARD FOURNETTE

RB, LSU

This is a popular early pairing for a variety of reasons: 1) Fournette might be a value even at No. 8—he has that much talent; 2) Jonathan Stewart’s contract is winding down, he turns 30 this year and he has a dotted injury history; 3) Fournette and Cam Newton together would form a punishing, dynamic rushing threat.

 

9  Cincinnati Marvengals

SOLOMON THOMAS

DL, STANFORD

Thomas’s stock already was on the rise before he demolished North Carolina in Stanford's bowl game. He has the power necessary to drop in as a starting end for the Bengals, but he also might be lethal as an interior pass rusher alongside Geno Atkins.

10 Buffalo Bills

MIKE WILLIAMS

WR, CLEMSON

Another obvious potential landing spot for a QB, since the Bills seem determined to nudge Tyrod Taylor out the door. Saving that, though, Buffalo has to consider a big-play wide receiver. Sammy Watkins is a constant injury risk, Robert Woods is about to be a free agent and no one on the current roster can physically impose his will as Williams can.

11 New Orleans Saints

DEREK BARNETT

DE, TENNESSEE

Barnett may not possess the elite explosiveness of Garrett, but let’s not just ignore those 33 career sacks. His scouting reports may sound a lot like those of current Saint Cam Jordan, a 2011 pick, who was viewed as a heady, high-effort, three-down player with question marks about his ability to be dominant off the edge. He has 46.5 sacks as a pro. A Jordan-Barnett edge duo, with Sheldon Rankins inside? Pretty good.

12  Cleveland Browns

DESHONE KIZER

QB, NOTRE DAME

(Pick via Eagles) The 49ers, Bears, Jets and Bills are the teams between picks 2 and 11 with pressing QB needs. (The Chargers, Bengals and Saints all could look for a quarterback at some point, but likely not in Round 1.) So, there’s a chance that three or four QBs are off the board by this pick, even if Cleveland opts for Garrett up top. But there’s also a strong likelihood a realistic QB option remains. In this case, it’s Kizer, who has the look of a big, durable AFC North-type quarterback and who could be ready to start by Week 1.

 

13 Arizona Cardinals

MARSHON LATTIMORE

CB, OHIO STATE

Thus endeth the Cardinals’ search for a No. 2 cornerback opposite Patrick Peterson. Lattimore is a physical, ballhawking defender. As is the case with Peterson, he has the speed to stay right on receivers, plus the physical nature to press effectively at the line.

14 Indianapolis Colts

TIM WILLIAMS

OLB, ALABAMA

Williams is a top-10 talent in this class, with off-field red flags that will require some digging. Assuming he checks out from a character standpoint, the Colts would have to be thrilled to find him here. He is a freakish pass rusher who can beat OTs in a variety of ways.

15  Philadelphia Eagles

DALVIN COOK

RB, FLORIDA STATE

(Pick via Vikings) The Eagles’ offense was better in 2016 when Darren Sproles was RB1 ahead of Ryan Mathews, in part because of how dangerous Sproles is as a big-play threat. The problem: Sproles isn’t built to handle a 20-plus-carry workload. Cook is, and he’s just as capable of taking one the distance.

16  Baltimore Ravens

QUINCY WILSON

CB, FLORIDA

Another big, physical cornerback with a nose for the football (three INTs, 14 pass breakups in 2016). The Ravens struggled through much of the season to find the right mix at CB, especially when Jimmy Smith was out. Wilson and Smith outside, with rising star Tavon Young at nickel, would put Baltimore in much better shape for 2017 and beyond.

 

17  Washington Native Americans

MALIK MCDOWELL

DL, MICHIGAN STATE

Washington simply was not competitive enough up front on defense this season, coughing up 4.5 yards per carry. Aside from 2016 fifth-rounder Matt Ioannidis, there are not a whole lot of pieces in place for the future, either. McDowell can line up at multiple spots, but he’s tailor-made to be a 3–4 DE.

18  Tennessee Titans

COREY DAVIS

WR, WESTERN MICHIGAN

Rishard Matthews broke through in his first Titans season, putting up 945 yards receiving and nine TDs. That could be close to his max, though, and there’s nothing in the way of a true No. 1 receiver elsewhere on the roster. Davis may not be as physically dominant as Mike Williams, but his game is more polished headed into the NFL.

19  Tampex Bay Buccaneers

JOHN ROSS

WR, WASHINGTON

The growing consensus appears to be that TE O.J. Howard is destined for the top 15. So, if he’s still around at 19, the Buccaneers would have to take a good, hard look. Pairing him with Cameron Brate would give their offense a boatload of matchup advantages. But in Ross, they can land the No. 2 receiver they need to help Mike Evans. He is an absolute blur in the open field.

20 Denver Broncos

O.J. HOWARD

TE, ALABAMA

Five Denver tight ends combined for 591 yards receiving this season. That’s not nearly enough, especially as QBs Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch attempt to develop. The exciting 2017 TE class offers the Broncos hope of improving their situation. Any of Howard, Evan Engram or David Njoku would upgrade that position for them. (Jake Butt, too, though his bowl-game knee injury complicates things.) Howard’s athleticism is an element sorely missing on the Denver depth chart.

 

21 Detroit Lions

CAM ROBINSON

OT, ALABAMA

The obvious: The Lions need help on defense, at linebacker, end, cornerback and possibly tackle. But with starting right tackle (and former first-rounder) Riley Reiff about to become a free agent, there’s a hole at a key O-line spot, too. GM Bob Quinn might have his pick of OTs at this spot. Robinson was a left tackle for Alabama, but his powerful presence would translate well to the right side; Taylor Decker could maintain his LT spot.

22 Miami Dolphins

SIDNEY JONES

CB, WASHINGTON

The Dolphins may want to stand pat at corner (at least early in the draft)—Byron Maxwell’s contract doesn’t become fully expendable until 2018, and youngsters Xavien Howard, Tony Lippett and Bobby McCain have shown promise. On the flip side, Jones is an impressive, physical cover man, essentially a more complete version of Howard.

23  NY Giants

DAVID NJOKU

TE, MIAMI

Aside from a competent offensive line, an obvious missing piece on the Giants’ offense is a game-changing tight end. Njoku is raw, but he has the potential to be just that at the next level. The Giants’ WR corps frees up a lot of space in the middle of the field. Njoku has the downfield athleticism to take advantage.

24 Oakland Raiders

JABRILL PEPPERS

S, MICHIGAN

On the one hand, Peppers’s main NFL landing spot may be at strong safety, which is occupied in Oakland by 2016 first-rounder Karl Joseph. On the other hand, Peppers’s biggest positive remains his versatility—pairing he and Joseph together would allow the Raiders to get creative in ways few teams could dream. Peppers also could help solve the issues Oakland had in pass coverage from its linebacker and slot corner spots.

 

25  Houston Texans

RYAN RAMCZYK

OT, WISCONSIN

Derek Newton’s football future is in doubt after he tore both patellar tendons; Duane Brown, 32 in August, has no guaranteed money left on his contract. It’s time for the Texans to address their future at tackle. Ramczyk’s post-bowl hip surgery is a concern, but his quick-footed blocking on the move would make him a brilliant fit in Houston’s scheme.

26 Seattle Seahawks

DESMOND KING

CB, IOWA

There are concerns about King’s deep speed, but he excels when he can keep a play in front of him. He has the instincts to read routes and get to the football and has long been a willing run defender. King would make a great fit in the Seahawks’ preferred Cover-3 ... and the chatter about a potential move to safety might build in a safety net for Seattle behind Kam Chancellor/Earl Thomas.

27  Kansas City Chiefs

ZACH CUNNINGHAM

LB, VANDERBILT

Derrick Johnson may not call it a career after his latest Achilles tear, but the Chiefs hardly can depend on him long-term—he’ll turn 35 next season. Nabbing a run-stuffing linebacker like Cunningham would put in place a plan for post-Johnson life. He and Ramik Wilson would have high upside as an ILB duo.

28  Dallas Cowboinkers

TEEZ TABOR

CB, FLORIDA

Lots of defensive options for the Cowboys at 28, given how this mock fell. Do they go with a cornerback like Tabor, Marlon Humphrey or Jourdan Lewis, or nab one of several worthy edge rushers? For now, pencil in Tabor, who displays a solid understanding of receivers’ routes coupled with the quick feet to mirror those breaks.

 

29  Green Bay Packers

TAKKARIST MCKINLEY

EDGE, UCLA

Julius Peppers is an impending free agent (and 37 years old). Nick Perry is an impending free agent, ditto Datone Jones. Clay Matthews is still around, but he’ll be 31 this May and is coming off his least productive NFL season. The Packers have to find help off the edge. McKinley is a high-motor athlete who could be dominant once he’s coached up.

30 Pigsturd Sqeekers

MARLON HUMPHREY

CB, ALABAMA

Humphrey’s size (6' 1") and speed (he ran for Alabama’s track team in 2014-15) can help him cover up for the occasional warts in his game. This would be another team doubling down at a position—the Stealers took Artie Burns in Round 1 last year—but there’s no question Pittsburgh requires at least one more playmaker at cornerback.

31  Atlanta Falcons

CALEB BRANTLEY

DT, FLORIDA

Brantley is a 300-pounder with a quick get-off. He’s also a player who could benefit from building his way into a heavy workload—in other words, he’d be a nice piece as a rookie in a rotation, where he could help wear down interior O-lines. A Grady Jarrett–Ra’Shede Hageman–Brantley trifecta would be a non-stop challenge. Eventually, Brantley can become a star.

32 New England

TACO CHARLTON

EDGE, MICHIGAN

Trey Flowers has been a versatile revelation for the Patriots this season, but they have very few pass-rushing answers beyond him for the future. Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard are both about to hit free agency, while Rob Ninkovich turns 33 this week. Charlton’s a plug-and-play option on passing downs. He’s a freaky athlete who’s only beginning to scratch the surface of his potential.

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it's interesting that they have Foster going ahead of Allen...I doubt the Niners pass on a QB but he'd actually make a lot of sense for them if they did. 
 

Probably due to the shoulder Injuries.... Surprised they aren't more of a big deal to people... At least 3 that I know of and Saban has said they are an issue that flares up every now and again leading me to believe that will continue.

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San Fran could be in a tough spot if they don't like any of the QBs enough to take the leap at #2. Their last two first rounders, Amstead and Buckner play the exact same position/role as Allen, so he'd be tough top pick. Kind of hard to see them going with a non-premium position like Safety or inside LB at #2 overall. Mike Williams would probably be a reach.  

 

I like the Solomon Thomas pick. Just turned 21 last month. Productive. Expected to test extremely well at the combine. And zero character concerns. Premium position. Need position for Bengals. 

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3 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

 

Damn, that's brutal.  What constitutes a bust, though? Out of the league in 5 years? Never starting? Lack of Pro Bowls? (ha!)

The study I read defined a bust as a player who has a value score less than 5 on pro-football-reference.com. That means they maybe saw some special teams action.

Another study looked at guys who started less than 50 games with no Pro-Bowls - DT's were still the second highest bust rate. RB starts to creep in to the #1 spot. 1st round QB's generally get to start a lot of games even if they suck. (See RGIII)


Criteria 1: Odell Thurman was not a bust (7) - Darqueeze Dennard is a bust (4)

Criteria 2: Odell Thurman was a bust - Darqueeze Dennard was a bust

Interior Linemen, Safeties, and LB's are the safest first round picks.

Interestingly, only once have 2 QB's gone #1 and #2 and both ended up being starters. (Plunkett/Manning) The 9ers might be wise to skip that QB pick at #2.

Another interesting stat - after pick #6, you have a 30% chance of landing an eventual starter.

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On 2/3/2017 at 9:19 AM, LostInDaJungle said:

The study I read defined a bust as a player who has a value score less than 5 on pro-football-reference.com. That means they maybe saw some special teams action.

Another study looked at guys who started less than 50 games with no Pro-Bowls - DT's were still the second highest bust rate. RB starts to creep in to the #1 spot. 1st round QB's generally get to start a lot of games even if they suck. (See RGIII)


Criteria 1: Odell Thurman was not a bust (7) - Darqueeze Dennard is a bust (4)

Criteria 2: Odell Thurman was a bust - Darqueeze Dennard was a bust

Interior Linemen, Safeties, and LB's are the safest first round picks.

Interestingly, only once have 2 QB's gone #1 and #2 and both ended up being starters. (Plunkett/Manning) The 9ers might be wise to skip that QB pick at #2.

Another interesting stat - after pick #6, you have a 30% chance of landing an eventual starter.

Regardless of position you can't use the Pro Bowl as a measuring stick for greatness. Exhibit A: Andrew Whitworth...should be a perennial PBer but rarely even gets a sniff.

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On 2/4/2017 at 0:39 PM, 75North said:

Regardless of position you can't use the Pro Bowl as a measuring stick for greatness. Exhibit A: Andrew Whitworth...should be a perennial PBer but rarely even gets a sniff.

In that  case, I think they were trying to weed out players who might have gotten injured, etc... They're saying you started less than 50 games and never made the pro-bowl. If Thurman had ever made a pro-bowl, he would not have been a bust by their metric even though he only played 16 NFL games.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/3/2017 at 8:46 AM, LostInDaJungle said:

DT's have the highest 1st round bust rate of any position that isn't QB. I don't think Thomas works beside Geno taking Peko's spot. (Especially in the run heavy north) So, he'd have a Wallace Gilberry type role with us? At #9?

Foster, Wallace, Tabor

You realize Thomas is a DE not a DT right?  :huh:

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14 hours ago, Randle P McMurphy said:

You realize Thomas is a DE not a DT right?  :huh:

From NFL.com: " He’s damn good. I don’t think he gets drafted as early as you do because he’s not big enough for inside and he’s not as long as you like on the outside. You have to figure out where you will play him, but he won’t stop. "

IMHO - his best fit is as a 3-4 DE or OLB. And even then he has to gain 20 pounds or learn to play in space. Longer/Stronger OT's in the NFL are going to give him headaches.

I don't hate the guy, but at this point, he's a much better Wallace Gilberry. Tell me he's there in the 2nd or third and I'm in love with the pick.

I think Taco Truck Charlton would be a good fit on every corner for us if we were going to go DE early. Plus, the dude's name is Taco.

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8 hours ago, Jpoore said:


He's not really though. Almost all of his production came from his dt spot. Barely did anything as a DE.

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He played all over the line for Stanford and dominated. He did spend most of his time inside but at 280 lbs he's too small to play there in the NFL. There's plenty of tape of him at end dominating.

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Thomas will move all around the line in the NFL just like he did at Stanford....and there ain't a damn thing wrong with that. 

let him play DE on the early downs and then move him inside on passing downs...he'll be one of the most dominant players that comes out of this draft class, guaranteed. (which is why we'll never get a shot at him)

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41 minutes ago, happyrid said:

If he's right, no way he makes it to 9.

he's also supposedly been timed UNDER 4.0 in the 20 yard shuttle....that would be straight up insanity for a guy that size.

honestly something like that could get him in the discussion for #1 overall pick if it turns out to be even close to true....as a comparison, Von Miller got clocked at a 4.06 when he was at the combine.

 

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