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Putting cart (free agency) before the horse (draft)


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It is a lot easier for a team to target a specific need in free agency while trying to target a specific position in the draft will cause teams to pass over better players available when they pick.  So It makes more sense to me to have the draft before free agency.  That way teams would know what they are going to get out of the draft before they start targeting specific holes in free agency.

Right now there are a lot of of threads about the draft, but what we do in free agency will have a big impact on what we do in the draft.  For example one of our biggest needs is LB, and 4-3 LBs are one of the cheaper positions to fill in free agency. If we sign a decent LB, then that effects the projections in the draft.  We also need to know if we re-sign Whit, Zeitler, and Dre before we know who we will target in the draft.

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I would argue the opposite, for the same reasons you identify.  If, say, the Bengals realize they need a much better LB to start next year, would they rather a) choose a proven free agent who has experience in the league that they *know* (barring injury) will be able to at least fill the role?  Or do they b) rely on a draft pick that they *know*... was good in college ball.  To me the choice is obvious, because ANY draft pick can end up busting and relying on them to start is a big risk.  The second part of this is, if you fill roles with FA's you can now pick BPA, which again aligns with your statement that teams might reach for players in the draft if they're using the draft to fill starter roles.  We also know that at least Marvin's philosophy is that players chosen below somewhere in the mid first round are likely not going to be counted on to "contribute right away", but anyone above that *has to* contribute right away (and I would argue it's not so much because those players are "guaranteed awesome", but rather they are paid like starters day one).  That's a pretty tiny percentage of drafted players who will be counted on to start.

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Free Agency is as much or more about resigning your own FA's that you want to keep as others from another team.

If you have the draft first then FA's know they can't be replaced by draftees their market value goes up with a possible bidding war.

What do you do if the draft is first and then your FA's walk?

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3 hours ago, HavePityPlease said:

I would argue the opposite, for the same reasons you identify.  If, say, the Bengals realize they need a much better LB to start next year, would they rather a) choose a proven free agent who has experience in the league that they *know* (barring injury) will be able to at least fill the role?  Or do they b) rely on a draft pick that they *know*... was good in college ball.  To me the choice is obvious, because ANY draft pick can end up busting and relying on them to start is a big risk.

This illustrates a problem many Bengal fans have with free agency.

The fact is that lots of free agents are busts.  They are far from a sure thing.  There was a study done on the top free agency signings from '05 through '10.  Of the top 50 available free agents each of those 6 years (300 total) 140 signed with a new team.  Just over half of those players received contracts for at least 5 years.  Only 6 of those 72 players played out their entire contract.  In fact players on 5 year deals lasted an average of less than 3 years (2.9) with their new team.  Players on 6 year deals averaged 3.1 years.  And not nearly all of those busts were due to injury.

The big difference between signing a free agent that busts and drafting a guy that busts is that the free agent will cost 5 to 10 times more than the rookie deals.

To me it goes back to the flexibility.  A team has much more flexibility to fill a specific hole at a position in free agency than they do in the draft.  So they should go into the draft with all their possibilities open instead of signing free agents and then being forced to make a "reach" in the draft and pass over better players to address a specific need.

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2 hours ago, westside bengal said:

Free Agency is as much or more about resigning your own FA's that you want to keep as others from another team.

If you have the draft first then FA's know they can't be replaced by draftees their market value goes up with a possible bidding war.

What do you do if the draft is first and then your FA's walk?

It works both ways.  Some free agents will see their leverage increase after the draft if the team does not select a player at their position while some other players will see their leverage drop because a player is drafted to fill their position.

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Something that I would like to see us do more of is add to our depth by signing veterans with high upsides and low ceilings for cheap 2-3 weeks in. Who I mean are guys like Denard Robinson or Andre Ellington at RB. We might not have a spot at RB. We might. We tend to only go after guys who we know will make the roster. Then when injuries or bad play happen we are not in a good place. I would love to get one of those guys at every position. I have an overall look at free agency coming in a bit and there is a list of guys like that whom I'd love to sign. 

RB-Robinson/Ellington

WR-Jeremy Kerley

TE-Tim Wright/Gavin Escobar

DL-Dion Jordan/Chris Jones

LB-Sean Weatherspoon/Bruce Carter

QB-Austin Davis

 

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Good topic and point, here my 2 cents:

When I look back over the previous season I think inconsistent offensive line play and a lack of a pass rush where the main reasons why the Bengals didn't make the playoffs. I agree that signing a big money FA rarely works for several reasons and one of the biggest ones is it hard to find a veteran that fits the scheme and culture that is specific to your franchise. Just like in corporate America having a cultural fit is just as important as techincal skill set when someone is switching jobs. Too often guys go for the money and realize the culture of an organization is not a fit and it just doesn't work out, i.e. Michael Johnson with the Bucs. Also when you consider that you are bidding against other teams for the services of the player then the market can ditacte a price point for that players services that are over-inflated. 

However, FA is a tool that a franchise like the Bengals can use to improve their roster in a short period of time. The Bengals have talent and until last season where one of the top 6 teams in their conference on a consistent basis, an infusion of talent at key positions can quickly return them to that status. Current HC doesn't really plug and play most 1st and 2nd round picks for various reasons, so relying on the draft to fix this teams worries isn't always the best solution.

Re-signing Kevin Zeitler and Andrew Whitworth should be the offseason priority 1.a and 1.b. Actually I'm not sure why they didn't give Zeitler and Whit extensions before the season ended, but I'm sure their is a good reason why. 

I would also say re-signing Kirkpatrick is a good move, but only if it make sense financially. Dre is a solid pro that with an improved pass rush could be a Pro Bowl caliber player. My main concern with Dre is his maturity level and cutting Adam Jones could go a long way to improving that and giving the Bengals more money to re-sign Dre. I would love to see the Bengals go after a mature vet like Leon Hall, let him finish out his career while providing a positive presence for the younger players or a high character guy like Prince Amukamara. Jones is an embaressment off the field and his play was not a high level last year, the Bengals and the city of Cincinnati deserve better from a guy that is supposed to be a leader in the community and a team captian. 

As a for FA's not on the team maybe a guy like AQ Shipley would be a good pick up to push Bodine at Center, or target an OT like Matt Kalil, Andre Smith, or Menelik Watson.

As for pass rush DE that is going to be tricky to find a guy in FA because their are few good 4-3 DE's that can consistently gets sacks that hit the open market, I think upgrading this position is best done in the early rounds of the draft. However there are a few DE's that could be potential targets, Chris Long, JPP, Datone Jones, and John Simon are some guys I would consider if they aren't looking too much money and fit the scheme.

As for LB's Sio Moore and Manti Te'o could be a good fit for the Bengals, but I would rather see what the young guys like Vigil, Flowers, Roach, and Dawson can do and besides that Rey Maualuga is still under contract so I don't expect him to be cut. He was battling injuries all year and when healthy is a good run defender, and his salary isn't crazy so why cut him when their is no proven commodity on the current roster that is hands down better than he his. 

At the end of the day the draft and FA process is all a risky endevour, but if you don't take risk then there are no rewards.

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1 hour ago, PatternMaster said:

Current HC doesn't really plug and play most 1st and 2nd round picks for various reasons

 

That's not really true, is it? When has he sat a 1st/2nd round pick that was healthy? Carson Palmer?

 

I think we need to stop drafting injured players & "projects" in the early rounds. 

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4 hours ago, PatternMaster said:

I would rather see what the young guys like Vigil, Flowers, Roach, and Dawson can do

Vigil was just a rookie last year, so I have hope that he will develop into a solid starter, but the rest of those guys have been around a year or two.  They are not suddenly going to make big leaps in development.

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On 2/4/2017 at 1:33 PM, fredtoast said:

This illustrates a problem many Bengal fans have with free agency.

The fact is that lots of free agents are busts.  They are far from a sure thing.  There was a study done on the top free agency signings from '05 through '10.  Of the top 50 available free agents each of those 6 years (300 total) 140 signed with a new team.  Just over half of those players received contracts for at least 5 years.  Only 6 of those 72 players played out their entire contract.  In fact players on 5 year deals lasted an average of less than 3 years (2.9) with their new team.  Players on 6 year deals averaged 3.1 years.  And not nearly all of those busts were due to injury.

The big difference between signing a free agent that busts and drafting a guy that busts is that the free agent will cost 5 to 10 times more than the rookie deals.

To me it goes back to the flexibility.  A team has much more flexibility to fill a specific hole at a position in free agency than they do in the draft.  So they should go into the draft with all their possibilities open instead of signing free agents and then being forced to make a "reach" in the draft and pass over better players to address a specific need.

And this illustrates a problem that many lay people have with statistics.  

Not playing out their contract does not equal bust.  Frankly I find it bizarre that you would equate it as such?

Also your "5 to 10 times" value is taken out of the air, yes? 

I will reiterate, the only draft picks who any team even dares *count on* to start are top-level first rounders.  These players are *guaranteed* a certain (large) amount of money and thus the team considers it a bottom-line investment that they expect to get a return on.  Any numbers on how many of those veteran contracts are fully guaranteed?  Remember, the NFL can cut bait with ANY player at ANY time, and once the bonus + guaranteed portion is gone the owner gets off *scott free*, no matter how many "dollars" remain on the contract.  Hence the cutting of vets before the end of their contract, it costs the owner nothing (and in many cases they've gotten themselves into cap trouble and they have no choice but to cut veterans, often several of them).  That's not even mentioning the common practice of back-loading which pre-determines that the vet *will* get cut before the end of the contract.

NFL teams sign vet free agents to start now or act as primary backups.  Often the teams that pay those players a great deal are trying to "win now".  Whether they succeed or fail, at some point the rising cost of the roster requires the cutting of high-cost players, which are usually vets who were overpaid (on paper) and thus the "life expectancy" of their contract is on average less than the length of said contract.

If your argument is that a proven veteran free agent has as much chance of busting as a college player, well that's just laughable.  If you argument is that vet free agents cost dramatically more than drafted players *who are expected to start* - also laughable.

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Good topic and point, here my 2 cents:
When I look back over the previous season I think inconsistent offensive line play and a lack of a pass rush where the main reasons why the Bengals didn't make the playoffs. I agree that signing a big money FA rarely works for several reasons and one of the biggest ones is it hard to find a veteran that fits the scheme and culture that is specific to your franchise. Just like in corporate America having a cultural fit is just as important as techincal skill set when someone is switching jobs. Too often guys go for the money and realize the culture of an organization is not a fit and it just doesn't work out, i.e. Michael Johnson with the Bucs. Also when you consider that you are bidding against other teams for the services of the player then the market can ditacte a price point for that players services that are over-inflated. 
However, FA is a tool that a franchise like the Bengals can use to improve their roster in a short period of time. The Bengals have talent and until last season where one of the top 6 teams in their conference on a consistent basis, an infusion of talent at key positions can quickly return them to that status. Current HC doesn't really plug and play most 1st and 2nd round picks for various reasons, so relying on the draft to fix this teams worries isn't always the best solution.
Re-signing Kevin Zeitler and Andrew Whitworth should be the offseason priority 1.a and 1.b. Actually I'm not sure why they didn't give Zeitler and Whit extensions before the season ended, but I'm sure their is a good reason why. 
I would also say re-signing Kirkpatrick is a good move, but only if it make sense financially. Dre is a solid pro that with an improved pass rush could be a Pro Bowl caliber player. My main concern with Dre is his maturity level and cutting Adam Jones could go a long way to improving that and giving the Bengals more money to re-sign Dre. I would love to see the Bengals go after a mature vet like Leon Hall, let him finish out his career while providing a positive presence for the younger players or a high character guy like Prince Amukamara. Jones is an embaressment off the field and his play was not a high level last year, the Bengals and the city of Cincinnati deserve better from a guy that is supposed to be a leader in the community and a team captian. 
As a for FA's not on the team maybe a guy like AQ Shipley would be a good pick up to push Bodine at Center, or target an OT like Matt Kalil, Andre Smith, or Menelik Watson.
As for pass rush DE that is going to be tricky to find a guy in FA because their are few good 4-3 DE's that can consistently gets sacks that hit the open market, I think upgrading this position is best done in the early rounds of the draft. However there are a few DE's that could be potential targets, Chris Long, JPP, Datone Jones, and John Simon are some guys I would consider if they aren't looking too much money and fit the scheme.
As for LB's Sio Moore and Manti Te'o could be a good fit for the Bengals, but I would rather see what the young guys like Vigil, Flowers, Roach, and Dawson can do and besides that Rey Maualuga is still under contract so I don't expect him to be cut. He was battling injuries all year and when healthy is a good run defender, and his salary isn't crazy so why cut him when their is no proven commodity on the current roster that is hands down better than he his. 
At the end of the day the draft and FA process is all a risky endevour, but if you don't take risk then there are no rewards.

Malaluga needs cut. It just is. He barely played any snaps all year, some games he played less than 15 percent.we draft a guy like McMillan in the second who is better than malaluga at stopping the run but also has great but not elite coverage skills. The other option is down below. As far as signing a guy like jpp he reportedly wants a contract similar to vernon(5 year, 85 million) so we won't be getting him. As far as lb goes,vigil seems like our future star he came on late in the year really well. But here's an option. Kiko Alonso. He's a rfa. What about aj mccarron to the dolphins for Alonso?(assuming we could sign him for a 4 year 32 million or somewhere in that ballpark)? I would be ecstatic to roll out a front 7 of Dunlap, Billings, Atkins, TBD, burfict, vigil, Alonso. As far as corner goes we should sign aj bouye or someone like that for a 4 year 40 million dollar deal along with Dre K get that secondary locked up till 2020/2021.

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On 2/6/2017 at 1:56 AM, Jpoore said:


Malaluga needs cut. It just is. He barely played any snaps all year, some games he played less than 15 percent.we draft a guy like McMillan in the second who is better than malaluga at stopping the run but also has great but not elite coverage skills. The other option is down below. As far as signing a guy like jpp he reportedly wants a contract similar to vernon(5 year, 85 million) so we won't be getting him. As far as lb goes,vigil seems like our future star he came on late in the year really well. But here's an option. Kiko Alonso. He's a rfa. What about aj mccarron to the dolphins for Alonso?(assuming we could sign him for a 4 year 32 million or somewhere in that ballpark)? I would be ecstatic to roll out a front 7 of Dunlap, Billings, Atkins, TBD, burfict, vigil, Alonso. As far as corner goes we should sign aj bouye or someone like that for a 4 year 40 million dollar deal along with Dre K get that secondary locked up till 2020/2021.

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You start off strong, Maualuga needs replaced. You understand we won't be going after a guy like JPP because of the contract. After that we go downhill in a hurry though...

1. What about Vigil made him look like a "future star"? That's a bit of high praise for a guy we didn't get to see a whole lot of. I hope he turns into at least a capable starter, our linebacker sucked last year.

2. McCarron for Alonso? Lol...what? You do realize that Tannehill is the Dolphins' guy, right? We aren't trading Andy Dalton, the Colts aren't trading Andrew Luck, the Dolphins aren't getting rid of Ryan Tannehill. He's signed to a big contract and still has over $10 million in dead money tied up. There is a 0% chance he isn't their QB in 2017. If you think they're going to trade for McCarron as a backup and lose one of their starting linebackers for a backup QB, well....no. This ain't Madden and player for player trades aren't very common. If we trade McCarron it will be for draft picks. If we get a linebacker it's going to be through FA or the draft.

3. The Bouye thing is just funny. Do you know this kid is going to be viewed as one of, if not THE hottest free agent on the market this year? He's 25 years old and developed into a shut down corner. The only thing that's going to keep Bouye from getting paid an absolutely absurd amount of money is that the CB market is surprisingly deep this year. There's still a chance he could get a mega contract though. If the Bengals sign a FA CB it's going to be keeping Dre Kirk, we aren't buying 2 #1 CBs in free agency. It's not how the Bengals operate.

I'm not trying to be rude, but are you a relatively new fan of the Bengals? I'm asking because many years ago I used to view some things quite similar as you do. I'd always dream of these lineups with high priced free agents, I'd dream of trades involving players that people have actually heard of, and I'd look at a lot of the youth on the team and view them as "future stars". After spending over a decade on message boards and other forms of social media, it tends to bring you around to the reality of the situation. This is the Cincinnati Bengals. We aren't signing the top outside FA, just get that out of your head right now. It's not happening with Mike Brown in charge, it's just not. We aren't signing the top outside FA at a position, not happening. We will re-sign our own, even the top guys, but that's about it. You better pray for a diamond in the rough type of FA, because that's as good as it gets here. It has worked out in the past, so I'm not going to say it's a 100% recipe for failure, but it would be nice to see them go out and try to get one of the top guys from another team at some point.

Dreaming big and wanting the Bengals to change their model is fine if that's what you want to do, but it really has almost no basis in reality if you watch how the team operates year after year after year.

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You start off strong, Maualuga needs replaced. You understand we won't be going after a guy like JPP because of the contract. After that we go downhill in a hurry though...
1. What about Vigil made him look like a "future star"? That's a bit of high praise for a guy we didn't get to see a whole lot of. I hope he turns into at least a capable starter, our linebacker sucked last year.
2. McCarron for Alonso? Lol...what? You do realize that Tannehill is the Dolphins' guy, right? We aren't trading Andy Dalton, the Colts aren't trading Andrew Luck, the Dolphins aren't getting rid of Ryan Tannehill. He's signed to a big contract and still has over $10 million in dead money tied up. There is a 0% chance he isn't their QB in 2017. If you think they're going to trade for McCarron as a backup and lose one of their starting linebackers for a backup QB, well....no. This ain't Madden and player for player trades aren't very common. If we trade McCarron it will be for draft picks. If we get a linebacker it's going to be through FA or the draft.
3. The Bouye thing is just funny. Do you know this kid is going to be viewed as one of, if not THE hottest free agent on the market this year? He's 25 years old and developed into a shut down corner. The only thing that's going to keep Bouye from getting paid an absolutely absurd amount of money is that the CB market is surprisingly deep this year. There's still a chance he could get a mega contract though. If the Bengals sign a FA CB it's going to be keeping Dre Kirk, we aren't buying 2 #1 CBs in free agency. It's not how the Bengals operate.
I'm not trying to be rude, but are you a relatively new fan of the Bengals? I'm asking because many years ago I used to view some things quite similar as you do. I'd always dream of these lineups with high priced free agents, I'd dream of trades involving players that people have actually heard of, and I'd look at a lot of the youth on the team and view them as "future stars". After spending over a decade on message boards and other forms of social media, it tends to bring you around to the reality of the situation. This is the Cincinnati Bengals. We aren't signing the top outside FA, just get that out of your head right now. It's not happening with Mike Brown in charge, it's just not. We aren't signing the top outside FA at a position, not happening. We will re-sign our own, even the top guys, but that's about it. You better pray for a diamond in the rough type of FA, because that's as good as it gets here. It has worked out in the past, so I'm not going to say it's a 100% recipe for failure, but it would be nice to see them go out and try to get one of the top guys from another team at some point.
Dreaming big and wanting the Bengals to change their model is fine if that's what you want to do, but it really has almost no basis in reality if you watch how the team operates year after year after year.

I'm the first to admit, I'm only 22 years old but I've been watching the Bengals since I was 5. Obviously I don't have as Mush experience as most of the people on this board. And as far as vigil maybe I went a little too far with future star.... But we never play rookies and for him to get playing time as a rookie mKes me think that as worst he's an above average lb. And as far as tabbehill goes he had less than 3,000 yards he has been given more than enough time. And as far as aj bouye, he wouldnt have even been a starter this year had it not been for injury. He finds himself in the same boat as Dre k. One good year. Unrealized ur not trying to be rude as well ur just stating ur opinion. But IF weo could lock up our secondary and lb for the next 4+5 years or would go a long way. Also the only reason I'm.mentioning bouye and Alonso is due to Lewis comments along with green and Dalton of a completely different team.


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21 minutes ago, Jpoore said:


I'm the first to admit, I'm only 22 years old but I've been watching the Bengals since I was 5. Obviously I don't have as Mush experience as most of the people on this board. And as far as vigil maybe I went a little too far with future star.... But we never play rookies and for him to get playing time as a rookie mKes me think that as worst he's an above average lb. And as far as tabbehill goes he had less than 3,000 yards he has been given more than enough time. And as far as aj bouye, he wouldnt have even been a starter this year had it not been for injury. He finds himself in the same boat as Dre k. One good year. Unrealized ur not trying to be rude as well ur just stating ur opinion. But IF weo could lock up our secondary and lb for the next 4+5 years or would go a long way. Also the only reason I'm.mentioning bouye and Alonso is due to Lewis comments along with green and Dalton of a completely different team.


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I don't think the Bengals play rookies any more or less than most other teams unless they absolutely have to or draft players that are NFL ready. It's obvious when players are projects (Hunt) and when guys are taken to fill a void (Bodine).

Vigil got playing time because Vontaze was injured. He looked okay out there I suppose, hopefully he turns into a starting quality player. You may not be remembering how the season ended correctly if you don't recall the only reason he started getting more snaps was due to injury.

You can point to any stats about Tannehill that you'd like, it doesn't change the fact that he's "the man" in Miami for the foreseeable future. They aren't trading for McCarron.

A.J. Bouye and Dre Kirk are both good free agent options for teams this year, but Bouye is seen around the league as THE young shut down corner on the UFA market. He's had more than just 1 good year, but yes he hasn't had the reputation he does right now until his breakout performance in 2016. The Jaguars have the space to bring Amukamara back, Johnson took a slight step back last year, and Bouye is almost 2 years younger than Dre Kirk and seems to be viewed as the most coveted UFA CB this offseason if he hits the market.

I'd love to lock up our secondary and have #1A and #1B in Kirkpatrick/Bouye, but it won't be happening, not in Cincinnati. I believe they'll be working to bring back Dre, but they aren't going to bring in another high priced UFA CB as well. It's not what the Bengals do and I'd say the chances are close to 0% of it happening. They retain their own, or at least try to, but you might as well pencil in someone quite a bit cheaper (and worse) than Bouye if Dre walks. Or get ready for another 1st round CB if Kirkpatrick is signed by a different team.

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If they waste decent FA dollars on a LB I'd be pretty disappointed. Teams start 2 LBs as they are almost always in the nickel package. They have 1 stud in Burfict, a guy they drafted to be his counterpart in Vigil who looked good at the end of the year when they increased his snaps. Then they have a reliable backup in Vinny Rey. At the most grab a cheap vet or draft a mid round guy. Other than that I'd like the team to focus on their actual weaknesses such as WR, DE, DT, OL (depending on who we retain). They aren't going to hit FA as they just don't do it but I'd like to see them spend a little money on a reliable WR that provides a deep threat i.e. Desean Jackson and maybe grab a guy who can be a rotational DE to fill some snaps. Then obviously hit both of those positions with early draft picks to secure the future at those spots with Davis at 9 and Carl Lawson in the 2nd would be ideal

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If they waste decent FA dollars on a LB I'd be pretty disappointed. Teams start 2 LBs as they are almost always in the nickel package. They have 1 stud in Burfict, a guy they drafted to be his counterpart in Vigil who looked good at the end of the year when they increased his snaps. Then they have a reliable backup in Vinny Rey. At the most grab a cheap vet or draft a mid round guy. Other than that I'd like the team to focus on their actual weaknesses such as WR, DE, DT, OL (depending on who we retain). They aren't going to hit FA as they just don't do it but I'd like to see them spend a little money on a reliable WR that provides a deep threat i.e. Desean Jackson and maybe grab a guy who can be a rotational DE to fill some snaps. Then obviously hit both of those positions with early draft picks to secure the future at those spots with Davis at 9 and Carl Lawson in the 2nd would be ideal

Im more of a Mike Williams demarcus Walker kind of guy, but I think it will be more of a Mike Williams pat elflien tanoj kpassagnon first 3 rounds which I can't argue with. I just don't want it to be a Ruben Foster at 9.

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