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BlackJesus

Step Away From the Ledge! Looking at the Numbers $

33 posts in this topic

Ok, first, take a deep breath. Everybody needs to chill the fuck out and step away from the ledge. Unlike, most of Bengaldom at the moment, I actually don’t think yesterday was the Apocalypse, and think Free Agency has gone as well as the Bengals could have expected. In fact, you could make the case that the Bengals have made all the right moves thus far. To explain using numbers

Some of the hand wringing, seems to be because fans don’t consider the math and want a high quality prime age player at every position. An NFL roster has 53 players and 167 million Salary Cap. So let’s take off 30 back up players at an avg of 1 mill a piece, just for math’s sake. That leaves 23 starters and 137 million to pay them all. So roughly, your starters can make an avg of 5-6 million a piece per year, 5x23 = 115.  However, every time you pay a player 12 million, that means instead of 2 - 6 mill players, now you have to go with one 12 mill player and 1 - 1 mill player (or basically a backup quality player). When you factor in that a quality starting QB like Andy makes 18 mill per … and AJ makes 15 mill per … you are already ¼ of your way through the remaining cap on those 2 players alone. Then when you factor in a Pro Bowl DT like Geno, and Dunlap who also are over 10 per … you enter a situation where every starter on your team can’t mathematically make 10 mill dollars.

The Bengals problem is actually that they are good at drafting in comparison to other teams, and so are susceptible to having their players poached, since the salary cap ensures you can’t keep all the quality players on your team.

Thus, a team has to either be a mix of 12 mill per and 1 mill per players, or a bunch of guys around 5-6 mill per. When a team like Cleveland enters FA with 100 million extra and are willing to pay Zeitler 12 per year, and make him the highest paid G …. And the Rams are willing to essentially pay an aging Whitworth 36 for 2 years at 18 per (he won’t see that 3rd year) and paying him the same as Andy makes almost … then you have to let both players walk. The sorry ass Rams can afford to pay Whitworth that amount because they don’t have many of the quality starters like the Bengals have who are highly paid at their position.

The Bengals did the right thing and kept the #1 priority which was Kirkpatrick. He is young and an emerging star. Plus, the Stealers were trying to poach him, so it’s a double benefit to keep him and keep them from getting him. That move should be applauded. Plus if only one of those 3 players had to be kept. Kirkpatrick, Kevin, or Whitworth, then Kirkpatrick is the one you would keep, and ironically he was the cheapest at 10 per year, so he’s cap friendly too.

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Uhhhh...you start off bashing people for "not understanding the cap" while, not trying to be rude, you REALLY don't understand the NFL salary cap or how it works for many reasons.

First of all, the top 51 players count against the cap.

Second, you're not using what's counting against the cap with your figures, thus your numbers are all out of whack in your examples.

11 of our top 51 are currently making under $600k this year (against the cap), which is yet another thing throwing your numbers out of whack. 25 players count for under $1M of our cap in 2017.

Not going to waste time further as you don't seem to understand the salary cap at all, sorry.

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I have seen this show before... keeping Bodine at C when he ends pushed behind the QB on a lot of running plays is a terrible idea...

Losing a top rated LG and LT and moving a swinging gate from RT to LT will lead to disaster.... 

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If most fans had their way, the team payroll would look like this (in millions) ... 

QB - 20 (star)

RB - 10 (star)

WR1 - 15 (star)

WR2 - 8 (quality) 

WR3 - 5 (quality) 

TE - 12 (star) 

LT - 12 (star)

LG - 12 (star) 

C - 8 (quality)

RG - 10 (quality)

RT - 12 (star) 

DE1 - 12 (star) 

DE2 - 14 (star) 

DT - 13 (stud)

DT - 10 (star)  

OLB - 8 (quality) 

OLB - 12 (star) 

MLB - 8 (quality) 

CB1 - 10 (star)

CB2 - 10 (star) 

FS - 10 (star) 

SS - 10 (star) 

Total = 241 million on just starters … with no backups or K / P

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5 minutes ago, BlackJesus said:

If most fans had their way, the team payroll would look like this (in millions) ... 

 

 

Total = 241 million on just starters … with no backups or K / P

 

 

This is just a silly "example" to prove a point against an argument that nobody is making.

1 of our players is counting $15M toward the 2017 cap.

2 are $10M to $13.5M.

2 between $7M and $8.166 (Jones who can be cut)

6 between $4M and $5.4M

13 over $1M but under $4M

The rest of the 51 players that count against the 2017 cap are under $1M.

We can absolutely, unequivocally, 100% afford to sign more capable NFL starters than you're willing to admit. Please learn your math and the cap better before bashing others for "not doing the math".

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Plus this whole, “Mike Brown” isn’t spending any money and keeping it all for the paint job on his Lumina … ignores the fact that all NFL teams by rule have to spend up to a certain % of the cap over the course of several years. Mike can’t only spend 50% of the cap and pocket the rest of the money. He has to spend like 90% of the cap regardless, and by the figures from recent years, the Bengals have been in the middle of the pack and meeting their required %.

At one time Carson Palmer was made the highest paid player in the NFL, then Kimo Von Fuckface shattered his kneecap. The Bengals have shown they will keep home grown talent and make them the highest paid player in the entire NFL at their position if they deserve it. Geno was made the highest DT at one point as well, and AJ. Zeitler was good, but he’s not the best G in the NFL, so shouldn’t be paid like it. The Browns can overspend, because their talent base is a step below Alabama and they have tons of cash. The Bengals don’t.

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19 minutes ago, omgdrdoom said:

First of all, the top 51 players count against the cap.

11 of our top 51 are currently making under $600k this year (against the cap), which is yet another thing throwing your numbers out of whack. 25 players count for under $1M of our cap in 2017.

I counted 53 players, instead of 51, wow, what a discrepancy. (eye roll) That doesn't negate anything I said.

Also, I just used a 1 mill avg to help make the math easier, but the general point still stands. Your team has 25-30 guys making very little, and then you have to devy up the starters at an avg of 5-6 mill per year ... the Bengals essentially do this fairly well. 

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9 minutes ago, BlackJesus said:

I counted 53 players, instead of 51, wow, what a discrepancy. (eye roll) That doesn't negate anything I said.

Also, I just used a 1 mill avg to help make the math easier, but the general point still stands. Your team has 25-30 guys making very little, and then you have to devy up the starters at an avg of 5-6 mill per year ... the Bengals essentially do this fairly well. 

But the things I mentioned do negate a lot.

You came in pretty hard on that high horse of yours to prove in just a couple of sentences that you don't really know all that much about the NFL salary cap or how contracts affect the cap numbers for each year.

You can't have stars at every position, everybody understands that. You are going to lose SOME players to free agency, everybody understands that. The Bengals can 100% afford another star player or two and remain well under the NFL salary cap, apparently you don't understand that.

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Rookie contracts are another thing that drastically affect the cap. You have to regularly hit GOOD starting players each "cycle" of drafts. In other words, if you draft poorly for 2-3 years in a row, it can really, really show.

2014 and 2015 being back to back unimpressive drafts should be proof to us all that you have to make a quick audible (maybe dive deeper into FA occasionally?) when things start to go south. Nah, fuck it, let our best 2 linemen walk and pray for the best. We'll have Geoff Hobson and a few fans around the boards talk about how we're geniuses and hey, at least we're not the Browns!

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Pump the brakes...you boys didn't tell me Geoff Hobson had an account here. Listen Geoff, we can go to Bengals.com and read your articles littered with nonsensical points and fairy tale math. You don't need to post them here.

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Also, your numbers being "slightly" off change a LOT.

First of all, you used 53 instead of 51. You don't think that's a big deal, okay, you're wrong, but okay.

Speaking of 2017, because ya know, that's where we currently are...

Your "math" was $2.3M off for Andy, $1.5M off A.J., $2.75M on Dunlap, and you were at LEAST $400K high on 11 players. There's another star player's salary. 15 more guys come in under your "average salary allowed", which would obviously let us add more on the top end, right? That's another star!

Basically, if you do real math instead of Hobson/Black Jesus/Mike Brown math, you can easily add 2 more star players without even looking at our open cap space. Our open cap space plus potential cuts gives us like, I don't know, 1-2 more stars, 3 rotational pieces, and a solid starter or 2? Pretty neat, huh?

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I'll just copy this from the other thread...

We manage the Salary Cap as an accounting exercise. If we can stay firmly on the path of mediocrity, we'll get lucky one year. Because that's all it is... luck. You just have to manage the team within these statistical parameters and this budget and cheap draft picks complimenting the higher paid "skill" players that we just need to find... But when we do we'll have the budget for them. Because smart cap management is just a fucking Excel macro. And eventually you just get lucky.

There's a certain logic to it. You can understand why an Ivy League lawyer might develop this philosophy. He's the son of the great Paul Brown so his reluctance to hear outside criticism is understandable. One day he'll have all of those players in all of those little salary cap holes and he'll have a perfectly balanced football team.

I can buy into the Guards aren't worth Tackle money argument. Say what you want about Whitworth but the guy played at a high enough level on Sundays last year to get paid by someone as a top LT in this league. We weren't willing to offer a cornerstone of our team a long term deal... Something that is worth it even just to have him retire in stripes. The deal he signed with the Rams makes him fairly easy to cut next year if he falls off a cliff this season... But your assumption that that he will isn't borne out by past performance. It's not like the Bengals didn't want him back. Your presumptions don't match reality.

You can defend the Brown family Excel macros all you like, but letting Whitworth go is simply an exclamation point on the ineptitude of this franchise. It's comical, and no less so because they told everyone they were sure he was going to be back. 

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10 hours ago, BengalFanInTO said:

Pump the brakes...you boys didn't tell me Geoff Hobson had an account here. Listen Geoff, we can go to Bengals.com and read your articles littered with nonsensical points and fairy tale math. 

"Math is FAKE NEWS"

... got it. :rolleyes:

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There's no way you're going to convince me that DreSwagYolo is more important to this team than Whit.  If this were Madden or simply an Excel spreadsheet then yes, it all makes sense.

Unfortunately this is a rudderless organization where the likes of Spitwad Jones are considered leaders and the head coach is about as inspiring as leftover oatmeal.  They took a giant step backwards because they didn't want to offer a dude who is not only one of their better players, but the only one even hinting at real leadership on the entire damned roster, what amounts to an option year.  Zeitler I could accept, only their reasoning is "we don't pay guards", like "we have one of the statistically worst running games in the NFL" or "we let our QB get sacked too often despite relying on a short passing game that requires the bare minimum of pass protection" are not all somehow related.

Then to add insult to injury we get Hobson poor-mouthing about saving cap room for some indefinite point in the future and crowing about a theoretical comp draft pick in the bottom of the 5th round.

This isn't about "stepping away from the ledge" or people in a panic.  The team was not very good last year and just got worse in one of their biggest problem areas.  They have done nothing to deserve the benefit of the doubt in this case. It's a clear step backwards for a team already trending in the wrong direction.

 

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On 3/11/2017 at 1:30 AM, BlackJesus said:

"Math is FAKE NEWS"

... got it. :rolleyes:

Using inaccurate numbers to prove a point is fake news. You are essentially trying to cook the books to produce a report that's good for the shareholders.

try using spotrac.com instead of making up hypothetical contracts, the wheel has already been invented my friend.  Http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/cap/

 

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I like how he keeps calling what he's doing "math" and then telling everyone else they're wrong lol

Black Jesus, if your math is incorrect, then nobody cares. There is merit to the Bengals making good financial moves most years and we could discuss that all day. However, you aren't spinning the bullshit trying to claim we can't afford more stars on the team though, ain't happening when there are those of us around here that fully comprehend how the NFL salary cap works. 

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The Bengals top 24 starters and their salaries ... 

Top%2024_zpspzk4di9p.jpg

^^^^^ These figures actually MAKE MY POINT FOR ME … Thanks :Troll-min:

As you will see … for every 15 & 13 you need a 1, for every 10 or so you need a 3 … so you avg out around 5-6 mill for starters, with any fluctuation needing to be made up from the top or bottom. 

Math … it’s almost like magic. :D

And again … you cannot pay all of your players 10 mill a year … you can only pay a couple in that range. And probably not wise to do that for a 36 year old T or make a G your 3rd highest paid player on the team. 

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I'm done here. 

Dude had his mind made up and from the get go he bashed people for not understanding math while not understanding math himself. 

Good luck arguing with Hobson guys. 

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16 minutes ago, omgdrdoom said:

Black Jesus, if your math is incorrect, then nobody cares.

Well yeah, it's clear that some people don't care about the "alternative facts" called numbers.

But I could care less about those people, like you. :cool:

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The only point being made seems to be that even after spending up to near the cap we have an average at best team and losing our two best lineman won't make it better most likely. 

As far as Mike Brown being cheap, it has to do with the entire operation, not just salary.  This  is understandable since Mike Brown didn't become wealthy being the Co founder of Microsoft or Home Depot and doesn't have spare billions lying around.

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2 hours ago, SF2 said:

The only point being made seems to be that even after spending up to near the cap we have an average at best team and losing our two best lineman won't make it better most likely. 

As far as Mike Brown being cheap, it has to do with the entire operation, not just salary.  This  is understandable since Mike Brown didn't become wealthy being the Co founder of Microsoft or Home Depot and doesn't have spare billions lying around.

The Bengals aren't spending near the cap, even if you set aside around 10 mil for rookies they still have over 25 million of cap space available. Then if you cut Pacman and Rey Maualuga you can add an extra 10 mil, bring your available cash to 35 million...more than enough to retain Whit & Zeitler. 

They just didn't want to pay those guys because it sets a precedent and eats into their profit margins. The lower the payroll,the higher  the profits...it's quite simple. As others have said the Brown family is more like you and me than most owners, meaning they don't have billlions in the bank and use their NFL as a way to pass the time and look cool to their friends. The net revenue generated from the Bengals is their main source of income and they don't give out millions of dollars without seriously accounting for every dollar. I understand and respect that, however I don't agree with this strategy when they let key players go because of the bottom line. 

Dan Gilbert, owner of the Cavs and billionaire businessman, spent 30 milllion over the cap last season and lost money on the year his franchise won the NBA championship. However the value of his franchise increased by over a billion dollars because they won the championship. This is the type of business acumen that seems to be lost on the Brown family, sometimes you have spend money to make money. 

Keeping Whit and Zeitler would be bad for the Bengals 2017-18 net revenues, but it would dramatically increase their chances of getting back to the playoffs and finally winning in the postseason, which will undoubtedly increase the value of the franchise and energize a long suffering fan base...but what do I know?

 

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The true battle for Whitworth was fought back in 2015.  If you remember in early 2015 before the draft and thru the summer Whit fought for a multiyear extension and it never happened.  The Bengals drafted 2 OL that spring....Ooogie and Fisher.  Everyone knew they were supposed to be Whit's and Smith's eventual replacement. 

After haggling all year and only after it was clear that Ooogie was might not be ready in 2015 and maybe 2016, Whit got a 1 year extension.  My feeling is Whit decided right then and there that any future negotiations would be multiyear or else.  They let Smith walk and I am sure Whit felt as soon as they were content with his replacement he was gone.  He didn't waste anytime with the new offer and he was gone.

Besides Whit knows how the Bengals operate....in a year or two when they still kind find his replacement they will overpay him to come back.

 

 

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As long as Cincy sweeps Balt I can live with the seasons outcome. :)

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All I can say is that when Pacman, Maualuga and Huber account for $14505016 against your cap expense (8.36%), something stinks.

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I wouldn't even say I need to step back from the ledge. After last offseason and the subsequent shitting of the bed last season, I'm only gonna be more indifferent to their success. Probably the smart thing to do when being a fan of any team. I would get too tore up and pissed off if the Bengals won/lost. IDGAF now tbh. I just wanna see young players get put on, get some success, and get paid either here or there. Kinda done rooting for the team. Wanna see individual progress and men improving as players.

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