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Step Away From the Ledge! Looking at the Numbers $


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11 hours ago, PatternMaster said:

The Bengals aren't spending near the cap, even if you set aside around 10 mil for rookies they still have over 25 million of cap space available. Then if you cut Pacman and Rey Maualuga you can add an extra 10 mil, bring your available cash to 35 million...more than enough to retain Whit & Zeitler. 

They just didn't want to pay those guys because it sets a precedent and eats into their profit margins. The lower the payroll,the higher  the profits...it's quite simple. As others have said the Brown family is more like you and me than most owners, meaning they don't have billlions in the bank and use their NFL as a way to pass the time and look cool to their friends. The net revenue generated from the Bengals is their main source of income and they don't give out millions of dollars without seriously accounting for every dollar. I understand and respect that, however I don't agree with this strategy when they let key players go because of the bottom line. 

Dan Gilbert, owner of the Cavs and billionaire businessman, spent 30 milllion over the cap last season and lost money on the year his franchise won the NBA championship. However the value of his franchise increased by over a billion dollars because they won the championship. This is the type of business acumen that seems to be lost on the Brown family, sometimes you have spend money to make money. 

Keeping Whit and Zeitler would be bad for the Bengals 2017-18 net revenues, but it would dramatically increase their chances of getting back to the playoffs and finally winning in the postseason, which will undoubtedly increase the value of the franchise and energize a long suffering fan base...but what do I know?

 

Putting aside the rest, your numbers are incorrect.

The Bengals have $27.6M in cap space as of today. (Not sure where you're getting the $35M number from.)

Putting aside $10M for rookies is reasonable. That gets them to $17.6M

Putting aside $7M for a Burfict extension this offseason is also reasonable. That gets them to $10.6M.

We'll assume they don't get early extensions done with any of the other 2018 FAs (Eifert, McCarron, Bodine, Hill, Huber, Thompson, Sims, etc.) and don't hold any back for injury settlements either.

Looks more like $10M to work with. I think we'll see at least 3 or 4 mid-priced signings that add up to ~$7-10M. Rex Burkhead, Andre Smith, maybe somebody like Connor Barwin. 

As for cuts, I think Maualuga only gets axed if we take a LB early in the draft. We have no depth at the position right now and there's nothing out there in FA. I'm not sure what to think about Jones since that is mostly a decision about his arrest. Knowing how much the Bengals value CB depth and how injury prone some of our young CBs are, I think they'd keep him if it was purely football decision

 

 

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11 hours ago, happyrid said:

Putting aside the rest, your numbers are incorrect.

The Bengals have $27.6M in cap space as of today. (Not sure where you're getting the $35M number from.)

Putting aside $10M for rookies is reasonable. That gets them to $17.6M

Putting aside $7M for a Burfict extension this offseason is also reasonable. That gets them to $10.6M.

We'll assume they don't get early extensions done with any of the other 2018 FAs (Eifert, McCarron, Bodine, Hill, Huber, Thompson, Sims, etc.) and don't hold any back for injury settlements either.

Looks more like $10M to work with. I think we'll see at least 3 or 4 mid-priced signings that add up to ~$7-10M. Rex Burkhead, Andre Smith, maybe somebody like Connor Barwin. 

As for cuts, I think Maualuga only gets axed if we take a LB early in the draft. We have no depth at the position right now and there's nothing out there in FA. I'm not sure what to think about Jones since that is mostly a decision about his arrest. Knowing how much the Bengals value CB depth and how injury prone some of our young CBs are, I think they'd keep him if it was purely football decision

 

 

He was using Spotrac which shows the Bengals with 31.175 mil in cap space after the LaFell and Kirkpatrick deals. 

The Bengals rookie pool is slightly above 9 mil for 2017 if we stay put in our draft slots. That has nothing to do with how much cap space we have though. Our 11 draft picks don't get added to the 53 man roster, they either don't make the team or take the place of someone else. So the rookie pool is a distraction that can be ignored.

Burfict's contract extension won't add 7 mil in 2017. He's already under contract so new years will be added on and only the prorated share of his signing bonus will hit in 2017. He's got an injury and suspension history so I doubt he gets more than the 9 mil per year I signed him for in the mock offseason over at Football's Future. Add 4 years, 36 mil with 15 in signing bonus and his 2017 cap number increased by 3 mil. With Eifert it didn't make sense to extend him given how fragile he's been. Much more sensible to make him play a full year then tag him since the tag number for TEs is around what a healthy Eifert will get in free agency. I was able to keep Whit and Zeitler for a combined 25 mil in 2017, lost Dre, kept LaFell, added Hauschka and Andre Smith and some cheap veteran DBs (Kyle Arrington, Shareece Wright, Jeron Johnson), and brought back LB Chris Carter. Drafted Barnett in the first, Jarrad Davis in the second, Elflein and Carl Lawson in the 3rd and am about 12 mil under the cap for 2017 without cutting anyone. I've shopped Maualuga and Pacman but no takers so they're still on the roster. I let Peko and Dansby walk without offers but brought back the other guys (Gilberry, Hunt, Peerman, Burkhead) on cheap deals.

 

The real life Bengals completely screwed the pooch in the opening days of free agency and have plenty of cap space to make the team better if they choose to use it. So far, they've chosen to be a less talented but cheaper team. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

He was using Spotrac which shows the Bengals with 31.175 mil in cap space after the LaFell and Kirkpatrick deals. 

The Bengals rookie pool is slightly above 9 mil for 2017 if we stay put in our draft slots. That has nothing to do with how much cap space we have though. Our 11 draft picks don't get added to the 53 man roster, they either don't make the team or take the place of someone else. So the rookie pool is a distraction that can be ignored.

Burfict's contract extension won't add 7 mil in 2017. He's already under contract so new years will be added on and only the prorated share of his signing bonus will hit in 2017. He's got an injury and suspension history so I doubt he gets more than the 9 mil per year I signed him for in the mock offseason over at Football's Future. Add 4 years, 36 mil with 15 in signing bonus and his 2017 cap number increased by 3 mil. With Eifert it didn't make sense to extend him given how fragile he's been. Much more sensible to make him play a full year then tag him since the tag number for TEs is around what a healthy Eifert will get in free agency. I was able to keep Whit and Zeitler for a combined 25 mil in 2017, lost Dre, kept LaFell, added Hauschka and Andre Smith and some cheap veteran DBs (Kyle Arrington, Shareece Wright, Jeron Johnson), and brought back LB Chris Carter. Drafted Barnett in the first, Jarrad Davis in the second, Elflein and Carl Lawson in the 3rd and am about 12 mil under the cap for 2017 without cutting anyone. I've shopped Maualuga and Pacman but no takers so they're still on the roster. I let Peko and Dansby walk without offers but brought back the other guys (Gilberry, Hunt, Peerman, Burkhead) on cheap deals.

 

The real life Bengals completely screwed the pooch in the opening days of free agency and have plenty of cap space to make the team better if they choose to use it. So far, they've chosen to be a less talented but cheaper team. 

 

 

I'll go point by point here:

1. Sportrac doesn't have the Kirkpatrick deal on their site yet. That's why their numbers are so far off. 

2. I think you're crazy if you think Burfict is going to take $9M a year. He's a better player than Jamie Collins who just got $13M. He also knows the Bengals probably can't tag him next year. So if he is going to sign an extension now, he's going to get paid. If he doesn't sign the extension and plays out the year, he knows he'll get huge money as a FA with a good season. 

3. Rookie pool really isn't a distraction. Only the top 53 count on the roster in the offseason, but everyone and all of the signing bonuses ends up on the cap. If a guy ends up on IR, he's on the cap. If a guy ends up on the practice squad, he's on the cap. People bitch about this same stuff every year and then when it's all said and done, the Bengals end up pretty close up against the cap when all this stuff is paid for. 

4. Agree on Eifert. I think they are going to let him play out 2017 and end up franchising him next year. 

5. The Bengals have been top 10 in the league in spending. A few million dollars (and that's really all we're arguing about since I guarantee they end up within $5M or so of the cap) has no real impact on their bottom line. This has nothing at all to do with being cheap. If you think Mike Brown doesn't want to win at his age and is just trying to save a few bucks, again, you're crazy. 

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11 minutes ago, happyrid said:

I'll go point by point here:

1. Sportrac doesn't have the Kirkpatrick deal on their site yet. That's why their numbers are so far off. 

2. I think you're crazy if you think Burfict is going to take $9M a year. He's a better player than Jamie Collins who just got $13M. He also knows the Bengals probably can't tag him next year. So if he is going to sign an extension now, he's going to get paid. If he doesn't sign the extension and plays out the year, he knows he'll get huge money as a FA with a good season. 

3. Rookie pool really isn't a distraction. Only the top 53 count on the roster in the offseason, but everyone and all of the signing bonuses ends up on the cap. If a guy ends up on IR, he's on the cap. If a guy ends up on the practice squad, he's on the cap. People bitch about this same stuff every year and then when it's all said and done, the Bengals end up pretty close up against the cap when all this stuff is paid for. 

4. Agree on Eifert. I think they are going to let him play out 2017 and end up franchising him next year. 

5. The Bengals have been top 10 in the league in spending. A few million dollars (and that's really all we're arguing about since I guarantee they end up within $5M or so of the cap) has no real impact on their bottom line. This has nothing at all to do with being cheap. If you think Mike Brown doesn't want to win at his age and is just trying to save a few bucks, again, you're crazy. 

1 Ok, you're right that Spotrac doesn't include Dre's deal. Not sure what the difference between the figures is then apart from Dre's 9.384 cap hit.

 

2 Burfict is a good player but he's not going to get paid as a top linebacker because of all his issues, both with injury and suspension. The highest paid linebackers are pass rushers. VB isn't one. Collins got a lot because the Browns had over 100 mil in cap space. They're the team that paid 16 mil for a draft pick, 12 mil for KZ, and 10 mil for Bitonio this week. Nine mil is a fair price for Burfict. He's certainly not going to get a signing bonus from the Bengals that adds 7 mil to his 2017 cap number.

 

3 Yes, everyone counts during the season including IR and practice squad. Teams shouldn't spend so much that they can't afford 10 PS guys and some injury replacements. But even if we found ourselves in that situation, it's easy enough to get out of by restructuring someone to generate a few mil extra. That money can be carried forward if need be or used. Putting all this aside, the rookie pool is irrelevant to the team's overall cap situation. It's simply a limit on how much money can be spent on first year players above their base salary. It has 0 impact on how much cap space the team has. 

4

5 Note the structure of Kirkpatrick's contract, how it includes a large roster bonus in addition to the signing bonus. That's to raise his 2017 cap number. That's bad management. Cap hits should be deferred as much as possible. Team did similar things with Maualuga and Peko's last deals. That's why the Bengals have less talent for the same amount of money spent (along with some poor drafting and inability to bring in desirable free agents). 

 

NFL teams more or less have to spend the money the NFL gives them per the CBA. But cap space is a resource which the Bengals don't do a good job of maximizing. It's a self-imposed handicap which may have cost the team some playoff wins when the window was open. Do you think Hall was worth his 7.8 mil salary and workout bonus in 2015? Is Maualuga worth it in 2017?

 

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4 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

1 Ok, you're right that Spotrac doesn't include Dre's deal. Not sure what the difference between the figures is then apart from Dre's 9.384 cap hit.

 

2 Burfict is a good player but he's not going to get paid as a top linebacker because of all his issues, both with injury and suspension. The highest paid linebackers are pass rushers. VB isn't one. Collins got a lot because the Browns had over 100 mil in cap space. They're the team that paid 16 mil for a draft pick, 12 mil for KZ, and 10 mil for Bitonio this week. Nine mil is a fair price for Burfict. He's certainly not going to get a signing bonus from the Bengals that adds 7 mil to his 2017 cap number.

 

3 Yes, everyone counts during the season including IR and practice squad. Teams shouldn't spend so much that they can't afford 10 PS guys and some injury replacements. But even if we found ourselves in that situation, it's easy enough to get out of by restructuring someone to generate a few mil extra. That money can be carried forward if need be or used. Putting all this aside, the rookie pool is irrelevant to the team's overall cap situation. It's simply a limit on how much money can be spent on first year players above their base salary. It has 0 impact on how much cap space the team has. 

4

5 Note the structure of Kirkpatrick's contract, how it includes a large roster bonus in addition to the signing bonus. That's to raise his 2017 cap number. That's bad management. Cap hits should be deferred as much as possible. Team did similar things with Maualuga and Peko's last deals. That's why the Bengals have less talent for the same amount of money spent (along with some poor drafting and inability to bring in desirable free agents). 

 

NFL teams more or less have to spend the money the NFL gives them per the CBA. But cap space is a resource which the Bengals don't do a good job of maximizing. It's a self-imposed handicap which may have cost the team some playoff wins when the window was open. Do you think Hall was worth his 7.8 mil salary and workout bonus in 2015? Is Maualuga worth it in 2017?

 

Let me ask you a couple questions and I hope you'll answer with 100% honesty?

1. At this time last year did you think Domata Peko was worth keeping at around $3M?

2. If the Bengals signed Domata Peko on the first day of FA last week to a 2-year, $7.5M deal...how would you have reacted? Would you have said that was market price and a solid use of funds?

 

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2 hours ago, happyrid said:

Let me ask you a couple questions and I hope you'll answer with 100% honesty?

1. At this time last year did you think Domata Peko was worth keeping at around $3M?

2. If the Bengals signed Domata Peko on the first day of FA last week to a 2-year, $7.5M deal...how would you have reacted? Would you have said that was market price and a solid use of funds?

No, my view is that Peko is overrated by Marvin and not worth his salary. Bad move by Elway. Same thing for Maualuga. 

 

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On 3/12/2017 at 11:23 AM, happyrid said:

I'll go point by point here:

1. Sportrac doesn't have the Kirkpatrick deal on their site yet. That's why their numbers are so far off. 

2. I think you're crazy if you think Burfict is going to take $9M a year. He's a better player than Jamie Collins who just got $13M. He also knows the Bengals probably can't tag him next year. So if he is going to sign an extension now, he's going to get paid. If he doesn't sign the extension and plays out the year, he knows he'll get huge money as a FA with a good season. 

3. Rookie pool really isn't a distraction. Only the top 53 count on the roster in the offseason, but everyone and all of the signing bonuses ends up on the cap. If a guy ends up on IR, he's on the cap. If a guy ends up on the practice squad, he's on the cap. People bitch about this same stuff every year and then when it's all said and done, the Bengals end up pretty close up against the cap when all this stuff is paid for. 

4. Agree on Eifert. I think they are going to let him play out 2017 and end up franchising him next year. 

5. The Bengals have been top 10 in the league in spending. A few million dollars (and that's really all we're arguing about since I guarantee they end up within $5M or so of the cap) has no real impact on their bottom line. This has nothing at all to do with being cheap. If you think Mike Brown doesn't want to win at his age and is just trying to save a few bucks, again, you're crazy. 

  1. Spotrac has accounted for the signing bonus portion of Dre's new contract, just not the base salary information. I assume you are getting your figures from OTC, which seems to be more accurate. However, the fact still remains they could have cut Pacman and Maualuga and save over $10mm, then use that money to sign either Whit or Zeitler. I would have like to see them retain both and not re-sign Dre as improving the offensive line would have been my main priority this offseason based on how they played last year. This idea that Ced is just going to be an adequate LT is ridiculous based on his play, he hasn't earned the starting spot and it seems rather foolish to let a guy who can stop a bull rush, swim move, speed rush, spin move, etc...protect the highest paid player on the teams blind side. I maintain that if Ced was an UDFA or 6th or 7th round pick he would have been cut and definitely wouldn't be penciled in as the opening day starter at LT. His potential is going to get Andy Dalton killed. 
  2. Extending Burfict is an option but given his suspension and injury history I would hope the Bengals would wait and see how this season plays out before they offer him another contract. He could easily suffer another concussion or get suspended, again, which would significantly decrease his market value. Also, I wouldn't use the Jamie Collins deal as a comp; Collins has more pass rush abilities and was paid more to stay in Cleveland.
  3. I think Mike Brown wants to win but I don't think he knows how to do in the modern NFL. By keeping Marvin Lewis, not resigning key FA because they play a non-priority position, not valuing the service of former players, having one of the worst game day experiences in the NFL, etc..it's clear he's clueless on how to run a modern NFL franchise. I'm sure he would like to win a Super Bowl before he dies but does he have competencies to achieve that goal is the question and so far the answer is a resounding no. 

 

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On 3/10/2017 at 1:51 PM, BlackJesus said:

Ok, first, take a deep breath. Everybody needs to chill the fuck out and step away from the ledge. Unlike, most of Bengaldom at the moment, I actually don’t think yesterday was the Apocalypse, and think Free Agency has gone as well as the Bengals could have expected. In fact, you could make the case that the Bengals have made all the right moves thus far. To explain using numbers

Some of the hand wringing, seems to be because fans don’t consider the math and want a high quality prime age player at every position. An NFL roster has 53 players and 167 million Salary Cap. So let’s take off 30 back up players at an avg of 1 mill a piece, just for math’s sake. That leaves 23 starters and 137 million to pay them all. So roughly, your starters can make an avg of 5-6 million a piece per year, 5x23 = 115.  However, every time you pay a player 12 million, that means instead of 2 - 6 mill players, now you have to go with one 12 mill player and 1 - 1 mill player (or basically a backup quality player). When you factor in that a quality starting QB like Andy makes 18 mill per … and AJ makes 15 mill per … you are already ¼ of your way through the remaining cap on those 2 players alone. Then when you factor in a Pro Bowl DT like Geno, and Dunlap who also are over 10 per … you enter a situation where every starter on your team can’t mathematically make 10 mill dollars.

The Bengals problem is actually that they are good at drafting in comparison to other teams, and so are susceptible to having their players poached, since the salary cap ensures you can’t keep all the quality players on your team.

Thus, a team has to either be a mix of 12 mill per and 1 mill per players, or a bunch of guys around 5-6 mill per. When a team like Cleveland enters FA with 100 million extra and are willing to pay Zeitler 12 per year, and make him the highest paid G …. And the Rams are willing to essentially pay an aging Whitworth 36 for 2 years at 18 per (he won’t see that 3rd year) and paying him the same as Andy makes almost … then you have to let both players walk. The sorry ass Rams can afford to pay Whitworth that amount because they don’t have many of the quality starters like the Bengals have who are highly paid at their position.

The Bengals did the right thing and kept the #1 priority which was Kirkpatrick. He is young and an emerging star. Plus, the Stealers were trying to poach him, so it’s a double benefit to keep him and keep them from getting him. That move should be applauded. Plus if only one of those 3 players had to be kept. Kirkpatrick, Kevin, or Whitworth, then Kirkpatrick is the one you would keep, and ironically he was the cheapest at 10 per year, so he’s cap friendly too.

 

https://overthecap.com/texture/

Overthecap.com has a page called texture that details what you are saying, using "math". 

Team By Team Texture

 
 
Veterans:   Elite ($24,700,000-$15,500,000; top 32)   High ($15,137,500-$7,862,500; #33-#160)   Middle ($7,850,000-$4,410,000; #161-#320)   Low ($4,375,000 and lower)
 
Other:   Rookie Contracts (three or fewer accrued seasons)   Dead Money   Cap Space
Bengals.gif

Cincinnati Bengals


Players on IR: 0

Rankings – Cap Texture
Individual Classes
Class % Rank $ Rank
Elite 22nd 23rd
High 15th 15th
Middle 10th 10th
Low 13th 13th
Rookie 25th 25th
Dead Money 30th 30th
Cap Space 11th 11th
Aggregate Classes
Class % Rank $ Rank
Elite/High/Middle 15th 15th
Elite/High 19th 20th
Rankings – Roster Texture
Individual Classes
Class % Rank # Rank
Elite T-8th T-8th
High T-12th T-12th
Middle T-6th T-6th
Low T-18th T-18th
Rookie T-21st T-20th
Aggregate Classes
Class % Rank # Rank
Elite/High/Middle T-4th T-4th
Elite/High T-12th T-12th
 
2017 Cap Texture
9%23.8%15.8%15.4%14.6%21.3%
Class Amount
Elite $15,700,000
High $41,651,041
Middle $37,207,000
Low $25,525,125
Rookie $26,981,206
Dead Money $357,530
Cap Space $27,631,164
 
2017 Roster Texture
471130
Class Amount
Elite 1
High 4
Middle 7
Low 11
Rookie 30
 
All Elite/High/Middle Figures
Name Cap #
Andy Dalton $15,700,000
AJ Green $13,500,000
Geno Atkins $10,600,000
Dre Kirkpatrick $9,384,375
Adam Jones $8,166,666
Carlos Dunlap $7,250,000
George Iloka $5,400,000
Michael Johnson $5,125,000
Brandon LaFell $5,000,000
Clint Boling $4,925,000
Tyler Eifert $4,782,000
Vontaze Burfict $4,725,000
Top Ten Low Figures
Name Cap #
Shawn Williams $4,034,375
Giovani Bernard $3,675,000
Rey Maualuga $3,668,750
Vincent Rey $3,250,000
Kevin Huber $3,170,000
Ryan Hewitt $2,275,000
T.J. Johnson $1,797,000
Pat Sims $1,075,000
Clark Harris $1,000,000
Brandon Thompson $805,000
Top Ten Rookie Figures
Name Cap #
Cedric Ogbuehi $2,543,367
Darqueze Dennard $2,538,741
William Jackson III $2,205,828
Russell Bodine $1,911,114
Jeremy Hill $1,194,328
Jake Fisher $1,161,687
Tyler Boyd $967,948
Will Clarke $851,345
Tyler Kroft $799,944
Nick Vigil $738,907
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