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MichaelWeston

Who would you draft?

31 posts in this topic

I like Adams and Hooker a lot but I would be very surprised if we took a safety #9 with Iloka and Williams locked up long term

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6 minutes ago, akiliMVP said:

I like Adams and Hooker a lot but I would be very surprised if we took a safety #9 with Iloka and Williams locked up long term

Shawn Williams would only have dead money of $1.6M this year or $1.2M next year on his contract. Or keep him for a couple years as a nickel DB/backup S/whatever since he isn't being paid tooooo much.

You pretty much can't pass up one of those safeties when Williams wasn't very good as a full time starter. At least i'd hope they wouldn't pass on them.

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1 hour ago, omgdrdoom said:

I see this a lot on this message board specifically, so I'm going to address it as it seems to be something people heard and run with. Yes, 2 LBs "start" the game, but shouldn't snap counts be a bigger factor than "starting" or not? Here is a stretch of games later in the season with our LBs healthy with the exception of Rey Maualuga being unavailable in the first game. These counts are percentages BTW, defensive snap count % not including their special teams counts:

Dansby 76.9, Burfict 87.7, V Rey 70.8, Maualuga 0, Vigil 16.9

Dansby 61.8, Burfict 98.5, V Rey 36.8, Maualuga 27.9, Vigil 2.9

Dansby 73.8, Burfict 90, V Rey 28.8, Maualuga 11.3, Vigil 7.5

Dansby 75.9, Burfict 100, V Rey 20.4, Maualuga 37, Vigil 9.3

Dansby 92, Burfict 81.3, V Rey 9.3 Maualuga 41.3, Vigil 24

Looking at those percentages, it looks like we have 3 LBs on the field a lot more often than some people around here claim. I see the whole "we only use 2 LB!" thing a lot, and I understand it is definitely the case for the most part in certain games, but we use 3 LBs quite a bit too. Just look at the last week where Dansby played 92%, Burfict 81%, and Maualuga, Vigil, and V Rey still managed to count for a total of 75%. If you take 8% of Rey, Rey, and Vigils snap counts and add them to Dansby to give him 100% and 19 to Burfict to give him 100%, you still end up with a 3rd LB on the field for about 50% of the game. The first game in my examples you have a 3rd LB on the field for an average of over 50% of the defensive snaps. A couple of the examples do show a lower percentage for average amount of time you'd likely find 3 LB on the field together, but it's more often than some people tend to believe.

Dansby is gone, Maualuga is expendable, so I don't see any reason to avoid drafting a LB highly even if we end up with Keenan Robinson. We absolutely "need" more than 2 capable LBs on this team. An average of about 1.3 - 1.5 downs per 3 we have a 3rd LB on the field, and Burfict is really our only 3 down LB anyway, we tend to rotate the others.

It was my belief and is still my belief that we have 3 CBs on the field more often than we have 3 LBs on the field. It doesnt make a ton of sense to draft someone in Rd 1 to play 50% of defensive snaps. 

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Looks like I was correct. 4 corners played way more snaps than 5 LBs

Jones 97.30% 1058
Kirkpatrick 89.60% 974
Shaw 56.90% 618
Dennard 30.70% 199
    2849
Dansby 71.80% 845
Rey 54.50% 592
Burfict 62.00% 674
Maualuga 29% 325
Vigil 10.20% 111
    2547
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1 hour ago, MichaelWeston said:

It was my belief and is still my belief that we have 3 CBs on the field more often than we have 3 LBs on the field. It doesnt make a ton of sense to draft someone in Rd 1 to play 50% of defensive snaps. 

Where was anyone talking about taking someone @ 9 to play 50% of the snaps or less? I was just pointing out that we have 3 LB on the field more often than you and others seem to suggest.

I want us to take a LB at 9 to play 70%+ of the snaps and Vigil to be the <50% guy. Looking at overall snap% when our LB corp had injuries and suspensions throws things off a bit, but to be fair we've had to deal with those things in the position group the past 3 seasons.

2013 had Burfict at 95.90%, Maualuga at 56%, James Harrison around 35%, Vincent Rey around 32%, and then a few other backups combining for about 10%.

What I'd like to see in 2017 is Burfict playing >90%, a guy like Foster around 75%, and then Vigil being the 30-ish% guy with V Rey and some other backups filling in the rest in case of injury or a starter needing some rest.

1 hour ago, MichaelWeston said:

Looks like I was correct. 4 corners played way more snaps than 5 LBs

Jones 97.30% 1058
Kirkpatrick 89.60% 974
Shaw 56.90% 618
Dennard 30.70% 199
    2849
Dansby 71.80% 845
Rey 54.50% 592
Burfict 62.00% 674
Maualuga 29% 325
Vigil 10.20% 111
    2547

 

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