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Lapham on NFLN discussing the Bengals offseason and outlook for 2017


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1 hour ago, omgdrdoom said:

Do you honestly think Mike Williams would be taken at #9 to be our 4th receiver?

That's....probably not likely.

I think this offseason proved that the Bengals have a certain amount of money budgeted for every position group and they will not deviate from the budget regardless of the situation.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/positional/

This leads me to believe they don't have enough room in the budget a top 10 rookie contract budgeted for the WR group as they are already spending the most on this offensive position group out of any, including QB and OL.

The RB position group doesn't have a huge salary like the WR's do so I could see the Bengals justifying a top 10 contract at that position which leads me to Dalvin Cook. 

Any word on if the Bengals like him? He would significantly upgrade the offense, could start day 1, and should be available #9. I know it might be a reach at #9,  but if you are looking a player that can come and make an instant impact then he fits the bill. He has some off the field issues that give me pause but he's a versatile player that could be a huge asset to this offense. 

 

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2 hours ago, PatternMaster said:

The only thing about Ross is that his biggest strength is his ability to stretch the field, however I'm concerned that the offensive line won't be able to hold up long enough to throw many deep passes. I think a big bodied guy like Williams or Davis would be a better fit for this current offense.

Andy does better with bigger targets because his throws tend to sail on him at times and they high a better catch radius. 

You can also throw him a 5 yard slant and he can take it 80 yards.

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25 minutes ago, Jason said:

You can also throw him a 5 yard slant and he can take it 80 yards.

But how often does that happen? Not saying it can't happen but the likelihood of a 190 lb WR catching a 5 yard slant and taking it 80 yards for a TD is not that high. One of Ross's main weaknesses is his ability to beat press coverage, which is what every CB will do to negate his speed. 

Most WR's with top end speed make the majority of their big plays down the field on long throws, mainly because they don't the ability to break many tackles after the catch. Your average speedster isn't the best YAC guy and vice-versa. Julio Jones is the rare exception but he's also the best WR in the NFL, currently. 

 

 

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18 hours ago, omgdrdoom said:

Do you honestly think Mike Williams would be taken at #9 to be our 4th receiver?

That's....probably not likely.

Was WJ3 taken to be our 5th CB? Was Dennard taken to be our slot guy? Was Ced taken to be a backup?

The best indicator of future results is past performance.

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1 minute ago, LostInDaJungle said:

Was WJ3 taken to be our 5th CB? Was Dennard taken to be our slot guy? Was Ced taken to be a backup?

The best indicator of future results is past performance.

You can't use WJIII as an example here, we have no idea where he would have been on the depth chart and snap% by the end of the season if he played all year without injury. It's disingenuous at best to say we drafted him to be our 5th CB.

Dre and Dennard were both taken to eventually become the #1 and #2 once Jones and Newman got older and would eventually be replaced by the youth movement. Just because the FO took BPA and was trying to ease the young guys in at CB doesn't mean that's what they're going to do with every single position every single year. Not to mention CB is far more often a sit and learn position when compared to WR.

You're comparing rosters that were considered among the "most complete in the NFL" at the time (2014 - 2015) to a team that just won 6 games. I don't think this is the most fair of comparisons.

I personally don't see Mike Williams being taken at 9 overall to sit behind 3 guys, and Tyler Boyd will almost 100% lose snaps and targets if we take any of the WRs at 9. It is what it is, but I highly doubt they're eyeing up whichever WR of choice to ride the pine.

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1 minute ago, omgdrdoom said:

You can't use WJIII as an example here, we have no idea where he would have been on the depth chart and snap% by the end of the season if he played all year without injury. It's disingenuous at best to say we drafted him to be our 5th CB.

How many of our first round draft picks in the last 5 years have started on day one? Also, WJ3 could have been activated during the season but wasn't.

Screw the excuses why, etc... How many? How many 2nd round picks started from day one over that time?

This myopic optimism that every guy we draft is going to start day one is both charmingly naive and ridiculously silly.

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5 minutes ago, omgdrdoom said:

You can't use WJIII as an example here, we have no idea where he would have been on the depth chart and snap% by the end of the season if he played all year without injury. It's disingenuous at best to say we drafted him to be our 5th CB.

Dre and Dennard were both taken to eventually become the #1 and #2 once Jones and Newman got older and would eventually be replaced by the youth movement. Just because the FO took BPA and was trying to ease the young guys in at CB doesn't mean that's what they're going to do with every single position every single year. Not to mention CB is far more often a sit and learn position when compared to WR.

You're comparing rosters that were considered among the "most complete in the NFL" at the time (2014 - 2015) to a team that just won 6 games. I don't think this is the most fair of comparisons.

I personally don't see Mike Williams being taken at 9 overall to sit behind 3 guys, and Tyler Boyd will almost 100% lose snaps and targets if we take any of the WRs at 9. It is what it is, but I highly doubt they're eyeing up whichever WR of choice to ride the pine.

But we have done that with just about every position every year except when AJ and Andy came in together. WJ3, Ced O (and Fisher), Denard, Dre K, even Eiffert was getting snaps but still behind Gresham.

In fact I can't think of a single position that would come in and start right away, some may get more snaps than others, but I think all positions would get snaps.

Also your comment about WR is one that surprises me seeing as everything I've ever heard says for the good majority, that it takes them 3 years before "the light comes on"

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16 minutes ago, LostInDaJungle said:

How many of our first round draft picks in the last 5 years have started on day one? Also, WJ3 could have been activated during the season but wasn't.

Screw the excuses why, etc... How many? How many 2nd round picks started from day one over that time?

This myopic optimism that every guy we draft is going to start day one is both charmingly naive and ridiculously silly.

"screw the excuses" because there are legitimate REASONS, not excuses, of why most of our early round picks haven't played much. Of course you want a black and white answer because it fits your narrative. However, this isn't a black and white situation, there's more to it from an objective standpoint.

When talking about 1st and 2nd rounders, some have been bad draft picks (Hunt is a glaring example), a lot have had injury problems early (too many to name here), 3 of our 1st rounders are at a position where you almost never start immediately (CB), and some were taken to be groomed to start years down the road whether that's 1 or 3 years depending on the position.

It's really just not a black and white answer even if you really want it to be.

12 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

But we have done that with just about every position every year except when AJ and Andy came in together. WJ3, Ced O (and Fisher), Denard, Dre K, even Eiffert was getting snaps but still behind Gresham.

In fact I can't think of a single position that would come in and start right away, some may get more snaps than others, but I think all positions would get snaps.

Also your comment about WR is one that surprises me seeing as everything I've ever heard says for the good majority, that it takes them 3 years before "the light comes on"

In 2014 we had OBJ, Mike Evans, and Kelvin Benjamin eclipse 1,000 yards as rookies in the same season. 2014 also had Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, Devante Adams, Jordan Matthews, and Brandin Cooks play significant roles on their respective offensive gameplans. 66 targets is the least amount of the guys I just named. Those are all 1st-2nd round guys, not even getting into the later round guys that made an impact too.

In 2015 we had Amari Cooper, Devin Funchess and Devante Parker (to a lesser extent), Kevin White was injured, Perriman was injured, a lot of the 2nd rounders did nothing, and less WRs were taken in thise draft early overall.

In 2016 Corey Coleman didn't do a ton, Will Fuller was the only of the 3 that were taken directly ahead of our pick to do anything, but the 2nd round guys that year were great with Michael Thomas, Sterling Shepard, and Tyler Boyd all doing work for their teams.

I wouldn't say that WRs come into the league and constantly do what A.J. Green did, that wouldn't be true at all. However, teams usually don't take WRs early to let them rot on the bench. Barring injury, Williams would see his share of play time.

To both of you guys, I'm not saying Mike Williams is doing to come in here and dominate and challenge A.J. Green for his bajillion targets, BUT we aren't drafting Williams @9 to be our WR4 when our WR4 in the Bengals scheme sees very few looks behind even Eifert and Gio. At WORST, he's going to compete with Boyd for our WR3 worth of snaps, and at best he's our WR2 by week 17. That's my thoughts on it.

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We need defense (LB/edge rusher) and OL ahead of pretty much everything else unless you're putting all your eggs into the Fisher and Cedric basket. Even if we can just upgrade our oline, our WR/TE group we have RIGHT NOW will be FINE given time to get open. Pick up some talent at RB somewhere in rounds 3-4 (unless Mixon falls into your lap in the second) and fill in everything else from there. a WR early is a luxury pick the Bengals simply don't need. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Boyd is going to be better, Lafell is solid, Green is elite, and watch out for the emergence of Cody Core. I honestly believe they get Core more involved this upcoming season. He's starting to show more and more flashes and shedding a lot of the rawness he used to have.

 

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I have zero interest in OJ Howard. Most overrated player in the draft IMO. I know people will make excuses that Bama doesn't throw to the TE that much and/or had other talented players, but I don't buy that as the entire reason for his huge lack of production. 

In 4 seasons, the guy scored 7 freaking touchdowns total. Less than 2 per season. Touchdowns in college have been a huge predictor of NFL success at TE and WR. It's also worth noting that of his 7 career touchdowns, only a couple came in the red zone and a few of them were just flat out blown coverages where he was completely uncovered.

He's a size-speed guy and you're just hoping it translates to production at the next level with no real proof. 

You look at a guy like John Ross and some will say he's a "one-trick pony," as a deep threat. But 12 of his 17 receiving touchdowns last year came inside the red zone. And many will tell you Ross is just an "underwear Olympics" guy, not the guy with 7 TDs in almost 40 starts...

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1 minute ago, happyrid said:

I have zero interest in OJ Howard. Most overrated player in the draft IMO. I know people will make excuses that Bama doesn't throw to the TE that much and/or had other talented players, but I don't buy that as the entire reason for his huge lack of production. 

In 4 seasons, the guy scored 7 freaking touchdowns total. Less than 2 per season. Touchdowns in college have been a huge predictor of NFL success at TE and WR. It's also worth noting that of his 7 career touchdowns, only a couple came in the red zone and a few of them were just flat out blown coverages where he was completely uncovered.

He's a size-speed guy and you're just hoping it translates to production at the next level with no real proof. 

You look at a guy like John Ross and some will say he's a "one-trick pony," as a deep threat. But 12 of his 17 receiving touchdowns last year came inside the red zone. And many will tell you Ross is just an "underwear Olympics" guy, not the guy with 7 TDs in almost 40 starts...

 

Not sold on Ross either but I get a sort of Vernon Davis vibe from Howard.  World-class talent and inconsistent production.  For as little as he was targeted I think he's going to take some time to adjust to the pro game and that's not worth a top-10 pick IMO.

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