Assessing the Passing Game – Panthers

[Bengals1181]

So now that I’ve been able to see the replay, here’s what I see. It’s very long, but be sure to read the red text at the bottom if nothing else.



Drive 1:


Pass 1: 9 yard pass to TO, incomplete and nearly picked. Dennis Roland is pushed into Carson as he’s throwing, you can also make a case that Carson threw it a split second too late. Either way, Carson doesn’t have room to step into the throw.

Pass 2: Palmer throws and INT on an 18yd pass play. Obvious mis-communication by Chad and Carson. If they are on the same page, Carson hits him in stride. Carson had the room to step into his throw.


Drive 2:


Pass 1: 3 step drop, good protection, Carson steps into the throw and hits TO on the slant for 13yds.

Pass 2: Carson seems to get a little jittery with a rush coming. Reacts too soon, and doesn’t step into a throw that’s almost picked to Chad on a 2yd crossing route on 3rd and 3. Even if he steps into it, it wasn’t a good decision unless he tries to loft it over the defender to Chad.

Punt.


Drive 3:


Pass 1: Good protection, plenty of room for Carson, he over throws TO who was open despite double coverage. Safety drops the INT.

Pass 2: Designed screen to Gresham goes for 27yds.

Pass 3: Good pass pro, Carson steps into his throw and hits TO for a 7yd completion on 3rd and 6.

Pass 4: Carson just misses Caldwell in the endzone on what would have been a TD. Caldwell’s arm was held though and draws the PI.

Benson punches it in.


Drive 4:


Pass 1: Carson throws a pick trying to hit TO deep. Carson got hit from both sides as he was throwing. TO scores if he catches it.


Drive 5:


Pass 1: Carson rolls to his right (designed), keeps waiting for TO or Gresham to get open but they never do. Kelly was open however for a 2-3yd gain. Carson eventually throws it out of bounds.

Pass 2: Carson throws a dump to Gresham for a 9yd gain and a first down. A designed screen.

Pass 3: Quick out to Chad for 7yds.

Pass 4: Quick pass to Shipley in the middle for 7-8yds and a first down on 3rd and 2.

Pass 5: Gresham falls down on a 3rd and 2 pass. If he stays up, Carson hits him in stride and it goes for 10-15yds.

Leonard out of the wildcat extends the drive on 4th.

Pass 6: Carson throws a quick bullet to Chad 8yds down field that Chad lets bounce off his chest and incomplete.

Pass 7: On 3rd and 9, Carson gets good protection, steps into his throw and throws a dart to Chad for 13yds and a first down.

Pass 8: Designed screen that’s blown up, which they often are when they go to a RB for some reason. Carson rolls out and throws it in the dirt. If he’s a little more patient (he wasn’t being rushed much) Benson eventually comes free and could have gotten a first down.

Pass 9: 3rd and 7, Carson gets decent but not great protection. For some reason he doesn’t step into his throw much and throws one around Leonard’s knees. Leonard wouldn’t have gotten the first anyway. Carson had a chance to clear the pocket and possibly draw Leonard’s man away from him, which could have given Leonard the room to get the first.

Punt


Drive 6:


Pass 1: On a 3rd and 1, Carson gets a decent, not great pocket, and underthrows Chad who slipped and couldn’t come back for it. Blame is on Carson though. Also, Carson misses Leonard standing all alone 2yds past the first down marker . TO was also wide open 14yds down field with only a deep safety to beat or he walks into the endzone.

4th down run by Leonard extends the drive.

Pass 2: 1st and 20, Carson can’t find anything and runs for 9yds.

Pass 3: Shovel pass on 2nd and 11 goes for 2yds.

Pass 4: 3rd and 9, Carson almost picked trying to go to Chad 10yds downfield. Roland got abused and Carson was staring down a DE in his face and couldn’t step into his throw. Chad wasn’t open though. TO had single coverage on the left.

FG


Drive 7:


Pass 1: Carson throws a beautiful 23yd pass to Shipley running down the seam. Not a beautiful pocket, but the 3 seconds Carson needed and room to step into the throw.

Pass 2: Carson throws a 10yd dart to TO at the goal line. Defender makes a nice play to knock it away.

Pass 3: Carson hits Gresham for 5yds. With 15 seconds left and no timeouts, can’t throw that pass unless you know Gresham is walking into the endzone. Shipley was standing by himself in the endzone. Would have been a gimme TD. Carson did get hit on the play by a late blitzer, but he could have waited another half second and found Shipley.

Clock runs out because of Roland being a bonehead. Have to throw that in the endzone though.


HALFTIME


Drive 8:


Pass 1: Carson gets good protection, steps into his throw and hits TO for quick 5yd out on 2nd and 6.

Punt


Drive 9:


Pass 1: Carson gets protection, steps into his throw and throws a beauty of a rocket to Shipley for 8yds on 2nd and 6. Almost gets Shipley killed though.

Pass 2: Carson throws high to Chad 10yds downfield on 2nd and 7. Carson gets decked by two defenders on the play and can’t step into his throw, causing the high throw. Thrown off his back foot.

Pass 3: 3rd and 7, Carson throws a duck to Chad as Dennis Roland gets spun around and tries to kiss him. Carson is lucky to even get a throw off and keep them in long FG range. They punt though as it would have been 59yds.

Punt




Drive 10:


Pass 1: Carson throws another 8yd bullet to Caldwell despite good coverage. Good pass pro, nice blitz pickups by Benson and Whit.

Pass 2: Carson gets decent protection, steps into his throw and gets Chad for 4yds on first down.

Pass 3: 3rd and 3, Carson sets his feet and throws a quick slant to TO. Nice play by the defender to knock it down, but Carson also could have led him a little more.

FG


Drive 11:
Pass 1: Carson gets good protection, sets his feet and throws a strike to Chad for 11yds and a 1st down.

Pass 2: Carson gets good protection, steps into his throw and throws just behind a sliding Chad 20yds downfield on a 2nd and 8. Nice pass, but a split second too late.

Pass 3: Carson gets pressure from all sides and gets sacked. Nowhere to run.

Punt


Drive 12:



Pass 1: Carson gets a pass off to TO in the flat for 12 yds despite an unblocked blitzer charging. First down.

Pass 2: Designed rollout pass to Gresham for 17yds. Beautiful all around.

Pass 3: Almost the same play but to Benson for the TD. Everyone, including me was expecting a run there with first and goal from the 7. Great play call.

TD



Drive 13:



Pass 1: 3rd and 7, shovel pass to Leonard for 6yds.

Punt


Drive 14:


Victory formation!





[color="#FF0000"][b]So here’s the breakdown of the 18 incompletions by “blame”:



Carson: 6

Oline: 5 (Interception)

Miscommunication: 1 (Interception)

Good D/Pass interference: 4

WR/TE dropped/slipped: 2


[size="5"]Further, Carson was an astounding 18 for 20 when he got the time to step into his throws and make a play. [/size] [/b][/color]



[color="#FF0000"][b]I encourage everyone, whether you’re a Carson “hater” or Carson “apologist” to not just criticize or defend blindly, and watch the tape and analyze it fully. I had one opinion after watching the game, and I have a much different one now after analyzing the tape. Lots of opinions flying around on both sides that aren’t getting a detailed look at what’s really going on.


Coming out of the Panthers game I was as down on Carson as I’ve ever been. The tape tells a different story however and I feel much better about him. He still has to improve his game, but he absolutely has to get more help from the rest of the offense.

Further, the running game has to get on track. I didn’t break it down in here, but the poor run blocking killed as many drives as the passing game did. 3.5 yards per carry by the running backs is unacceptable, and the majority of the blame is on the oline.


So everyone take a deep breadth and step back. It’s not all on Carson, it’s not all on the oline. Things need to improve, but its far from panic mode.

[/b][/color]

[-GoBengals-]

its been pretty obvious for what.. 3 fucking years now?... how are people not seeing it to the point of just blaming palmer?

why even watch or follow football if none of it makes sense to you to the extent you have no idea whats going on..

[Vol_Bengal]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1285778842' post='924329']

So everyone take a deep breadth and step back. It’s not all on Carson, it’s not all on the oline. Things need to improve, but its far from panic mode.

[/b][/color]
[/quote]

good analysis 1181, thank you.

This line right here says it all... it is a combination of a couple things and playcalling probably exacerbates it too...


[quote name='GoBengals' timestamp='1285779718' post='924336']
its been pretty obvious for what.. 3 fucking years now?... how are people not seeing it to the point of just blaming palmer?

why even watch or follow football if none of it makes sense to you to the extent you have no idea whats going on..
[/quote]

Wait... aren't you the one that lays ALL the blame at the oline's feet? Just carte blanche releasing Palmer of any blame? I don't remember you every just flat out getting on Palmer, at all.

Go this isn't next part isn't pointed at you directly...
If people were honest with themselves and knew what they hell they were talking about they're realize that blame can be handed to several people... primarily both oline and quarterback. The only thing I've contended all week is that when the chips are down and plays need to be made... teams that have a "franchise qb" turn to that guy to get it done. Last year Palmer did several times. To date, there just hasn't been anything for folks to have a warm fuzzy knowing that when it is time, he will again.

[Jamie_B]

Good stuff.

Like I said he can play better sure, but if he isnt given the time to step into his throws your going to get what we had on Sunday.

We all knew this going in, that this season rests solely on the ability of the oline to pass protect. Hell Munoz said as much during the preseason, and I think he knows a little something about olines.

Hopefully getting Andre's ass in at some point will fix alot of it, but I would love to trade for Mankins as I think those two things would fix ALOT of the problems.

[coup000]

Great analysis. I did the same thing for the first half of last week's game so I know how long it takes. The only point I'd like to add is that as you mentioned, Carson was 18 for 20 when he had time to step into his throws, that means he was only able to complete 1 pass when the situation was not ideal. This is the NFL, a QB is going to face pressure in every game, I think Carson has to be better than 1 for 17 when facing some pressure, he either needs to sense it and get out of the pocket or be able to make a somewhat accurate throw with a less than ideal pocket.

For the record, I think both the O Line and Palmer need to play better. Cut down those pressures by 30% or so and Carson raise his completion % on less than ideal plays to closer to 30% and all of a sudden we are looking at 26 for 37 which certainly would have led to more points.

[BengalsRZ]

Great work 1181! I read this as I watched the game and focused on Carson and agree with everything except for one comment:

"Pass 3: Carson hits Gresham for 5yds. With 15 seconds left and no timeouts, can’t throw that pass unless you know Gresham is walking into the endzone. Shipley was standing by himself in the endzone. Would have been a gimme TD. Carson did get hit on the play by a late blitzer, but he could have waited another half second and found Shipley."

Shipley only got open because the nickel moved down (to make the tackle on Gresham) after Carson released the ball in Greshams direction. Shipley was in coverage and would have remained in coverage (though he may have gotten separation) if not for Carson already throwing to Gresham.

Besides that, great work, and interesting stats at the end.

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='coup000' timestamp='1285781214' post='924346']
Great analysis. I did the same thing for the first half of last week's game so I know how long it takes.[b] The only point I'd like to add is that as you mentioned, Carson was 18 for 20 when he had time to step into his throws, that means he was only able to complete 1 pass when the situation was not ideal. [/b]This is the NFL, a QB is going to face pressure in every game, I think Carson has to be better than 1 for 17 when facing some pressure, he either needs to sense it and get out of the pocket or be able to make a somewhat accurate throw with a less than ideal pocket.

For the record, I think both the O Line and Palmer need to play better. Cut down those pressures by 30% or so and Carson raise his completion % on less than ideal plays to closer to 30% and all of a sudden we are looking at 26 for 37 which certainly would have led to more points.
[/quote]


I see your point, but also keep in mind the stats for what they are. Yes he was able to step into the throw and get the completion, but on many of those 20 he was still getting hit and/or pressured. He can definitely improve, but don't take the stats for more than they are.

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='BengalsRZ' timestamp='1285782405' post='924350']
Great work 1181! I read this as I watched the game and focused on Carson and agree with everything except for one comment:

"Pass 3: Carson hits Gresham for 5yds. With 15 seconds left and no timeouts, can’t throw that pass unless you know Gresham is walking into the endzone. Shipley was standing by himself in the endzone. Would have been a gimme TD. Carson did get hit on the play by a late blitzer, but he could have waited another half second and found Shipley."

Shipley only got open because the nickel moved down (to make the tackle on Gresham) after Carson released the ball in Greshams direction. Shipley was in coverage and would have remained in coverage (though he may have gotten separation) if not for Carson already throwing to Gresham.

Besides that, great work, and interesting stats at the end.
[/quote]


Shipley had the nickel beat bad though. With the way Shipley catches, that's definitely a TD. He had separation before the ball was ever thrown.


On that note, I'd like to see them stretch the field with Shipley more. He's not a blazer by any means, but he makes DB's silly with his route running.

[JBandJoeyV]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1285778842' post='924329']
So now that I've been able to see the replay, here's what I see. It's very long, but be sure to read the red text at the bottom if nothing else.

[i]Edited by moderator for brevity's sake...
[/i]

[/quote]

Based on your analysis a couple things besides the obvious (the oline sucks).

1. Carson needs to make better decisions when hes getting pressured and either throw it
away or take the sack (its better to take a sack then int).
2. Carson needs to try to trust his oline a little more and step into more throws if possible
and try to at least make his progressions when he has time cause there is usually someone open.
3. If the line gives carson time I still think hes one of the better qbs in the league, when
he doesnt get time he becomes very average at best and makes poor decisions.

Find a way to give carson time and our offense will be great...can they give him time is teh
question.

[sois]

This is a awesome analysis, but I'm sure most NFL QB's face similar adversity. It's just that other QB's and even Carson in the past would have drive look like this:

Play 1. Drew Brees faces fierce pass rush, rolls right finds Colston in the middle of the field for 27 yard gain.
Play 2. Brees anticipates blitz, makes correct read and hits Henderson in stride despite throwing off back foot.
Play 3. Brees evades pass rush and buys time, hits Bush on 15 yard dig.
Play 4. Brees gets good protection, goes through his progressions and finds Shockey on the corner route for a 18 yd TD.

You can't demand your OL to give you superb time in the pocket every play, you have to make plays yourself sometimes. Carson isn't doing that. It's like everything has to be perfect for him to succeed and make good decisions. He used to be more awesome at that I keep telling myself. He used to be more agile and wouldn't crumble Bledsoe style as often as he does now.

I believe my eyes and what I see is concerning.

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='sois' timestamp='1285784503' post='924369']
This is a awesome analysis, but I'm sure most NFL QB's face similar adversity. It's just that other QB's and even Carson in the past would have drive look like this:

Play 1. Drew Brees faces fierce pass rush, rolls right finds Colston in the middle of the field for 27 yard gain.
Play 2. Brees anticipates blitz, makes correct read and hits Henderson in stride despite throwing off back foot.
Play 3. Brees evades pass rush and buys time, hits Bush on 15 yard dig.
Play 4. Brees gets good protection, goes through his progressions and finds Shockey on the corner route for a 18 yd TD.

You can't demand your OL to give you superb time in the pocket every play, you have to make plays yourself sometimes. Carson isn't doing that. It's like everything has to be perfect for him to succeed and make good decisions. He used to be more awesome at that I keep telling myself. He used to be more agile and wouldn't crumble Bledsoe style as often as he does now.

I believe my eyes and what I see is concerning.
[/quote]




As a QB you can call out all the blitzes you want, but if the line doesn't keep them off you...

[sois]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1285786101' post='924380']
As a QB you can call out all the blitzes you want, but if the line doesn't keep them off you...
[/quote]

A blitz is a risk the defense takes. If you read it correctly, the protection doesn't matter, you get rid of the ball as fast as possible. Air Raid 101.

[coup000]

If you can't see that both the line and Carson (Receivers too) are somewhat to blame for our issues, then you're clearly biased.

[scharm]

Carson is supposed to be a franchise QB not Jon Kitna.

I've rewatched first half and I'd say above is accurate. Although on the second int,Gannon was all over his ass about not throwing that ball in that situation.

IMO, after 3 games watching most again (not all plays but most) if Carson makes the plays he should make this O-line is not a factor of concern and quite frankly an entire different tone about this team.

There to many token/minor pressures that get blamed for bad throws. Timing and familiarity is the biggest issue.

Make the TD before the half, hit an open chad against B-more, get pi flag against b-more there's entirely different tone around this team.

Lesser QBs need perfect pockets everytime to be average, franchise QBs make the couple critical plays no matter what the circumstance.

Oline is a faceless excuse for carson, imo.

[JBandJoeyV]

[quote name='scharm' timestamp='1285791963' post='924400']
Carson is supposed to be a franchise QB not Jon Kitna.

I've rewatched first half and I'd say above is accurate. Although on the second int,Gannon was all over his ass about not throwing that ball in that situation.

IMO, after 3 games watching most again (not all plays but most) if Carson makes the plays he should make this O-line is not a factor of concern and quite frankly an entire different tone about this team.

There to many token/minor pressures that get blamed for bad throws. Timing and familiarity is the biggest issue.

Make the TD before the half, hit an open chad against B-more, get pi flag against b-more there's entirely different tone around this team.

Lesser QBs need perfect pockets everytime to be average, franchise QBs make the couple critical plays no matter what the circumstance.

Oline is a faceless excuse for carson, imo.
[/quote]

I agree with you a lot scharm, but youve been saying since the beginning of the year that you dont think the oline is an issue and it seems like you just dont wanna be proven wrong so you keep making up excuses for the oline. Is carson playing great? NO. But the oline is bad, and there is no getting around that.

[Tigris]

Awesome. Keep up the good work. I am going to use this to win my battle with my buddy about Carson.

[scharm]

[quote name='CJandTO' timestamp='1285792245' post='924404']
I agree with you a lot scharm, but youve been saying since the beginning of the year that you dont think the oline is an issue and it seems like you just dont wanna be proven wrong so you keep making up excuses for the oline. Is carson playing great? NO. But the oline is bad, and there is no getting around that.
[/quote]

I just don't agree. No offense to anyone on this, I don't pay attention to the masses pointing the finger at the line. I've heard and read it all before.

Brahm was a piece of dog shit and couldn't start for any other team at one point according to bengal fans. Mike Goff was Mike Goof and couldn't start for any other team. Willie Anderson was fat and lazy in the opinion of many at a time he was in fact the best RT in the game and no worse top 3 tackle. Levi Jones was just another draft bust, I heard this and broke down game in a debate during the first half of the 2005 season. IMO, Levi was the best LT that season.

I'm sorry the O-line is not the problem everyone wants it to be. I don't agree and I don't see. What I do see is a lack of confidence,timing or whatever that is stalling the passing game and robbing us of points.

Beat Ravens 23-10 and Panthers 27-7 it's an entirely different tone, IMO. Our franchise QB isn't franchise so far this season.

[oldschooler]

[quote name='scharm' timestamp='1285793597' post='924414']
[b]I'm sorry the O-line is not the problem everyone wants it to be. I don't agree and I don't see.[/b]
[/quote]



You lose all credibility with statements like that.

[scharm]

[quote name='oldschooler' timestamp='1285793751' post='924417']
You lose all credibility with statements like that.
[/quote]

We are all in the same boat. I'd rather stand up for a line that is performing at a level expected vs Qb that clearly isn't or an OC that isn't getting it done either.

So really what does it matter. Evaluation of line play depends on skill guys performing.

[|Lucid|]

[quote name='scharm' timestamp='1285794644' post='924425']
We are all in the same boat. I'd rather stand up for a line that is performing at a level expected vs Qb that clearly isn't or an OC that isn't getting it done either.

So really what does it matter. [b]Evaluation of line play depends on skill guys performing.[/b]
[/quote]

I think you got it backwards....

[oldschooler]

[quote name='scharm' timestamp='1285794644' post='924425']
We are all in the same boat. I'd rather stand up for a line that is performing at a level expected vs Qb that clearly isn't or an OC that isn't getting it done either.

So really what does it matter. Evaluation of line play depends on skill guys performing.
[/quote]


Skill guys can't perform when the O-line isn't doing their jobs.

The O-line isn't even run blocking as good as they did last season.
And passing blocking was their weakness last season. So now they
aren't doing either very good. So I don't know what the hell you are
thinking saying they are performing at a level expected.

Every freaking coach that matters has said otherwise.

Yes Carson needs to play better. But the O-line needs to play much better.

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='scharm' timestamp='1285793597' post='924414']

[b]Brahm was a piece of dog shit and couldn't start for any other team at one point according to bengal fans.[/b] Mike Goff was Mike Goof and couldn't start for any other team. [b]Willie Anderson was fat and lazy in the opinion of many at a time he was in fact the best RT in the game and no worse top 3 tackle. Levi Jones was just another draft bust, I heard this and broke down game in a debate during the first half of the 2005 season. IMO, Levi was the best LT that season.[/b]

[/quote]



who the hell do you hang around with?



And are you seriously going to try and compare anyone on the current line to the three of those guys in their prime?

[JBandJoeyV]

I seriously cant understand how anyone can watch the games and say the line isnt a problem...I could understand some saying that Carson hasnt been playing great and that others havent as well...but to say the line isnt a problem at all?? Thats just crazy to me.

[|Tigers Johnson|]

I re-watched the game... Roland and Livings got abused most of the game... in fact it seemed like Livings was on the ground more than he was on his feet...... He looked like a turtle on his back most of the game.

[Jamie_B]

I dont even remotely agree with Sharm that the Oline isnt a problem.

However I will say this

He's right about Brat.

If the Oline isnt preforming Brat should be designing plays around that fact. More 3 step drops, more passes in the flat to B. Scott and Gresham/Shipley.

This timing stuff when your Oline cant block long enough to let the timing happen is flat out stupid.