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AmishBengalFan

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Posts posted by AmishBengalFan

  6. International Series 2024

    in THE BENGALS FORUM - For Bengals Fans *Only*

    Posted

    Okay, let's take this from the top:

     

    My assumptions are:
    1 - Except for JAX, no team will play TWO international games.
    2 - If JAX plays two, they will be back-to-back and BOTH must be in London (like 2023)
    3 - Divisional games are not desired (though they have happened)
    4 - Cross-conference games are desired as they don't impact tiebreakers as much.
    5 - Games against a team's previously-unscheduled "Game 17" opponent are highly desired as the visitor still plays 8 domestic road games, including every team already on their schedule due to rotation.
    6 - NFC hosts against PIT and AFC hosts against GBP or DAL are unlikely (those home teams likely want the extra revenue that the visiting bandwagon will bring, and they only get one shot at that money every 8 seasons).

     

    Here are the 'home' games each of the locked-in International Series teams will play:

    JAX: HOU IND TEN NEP NYJ CFT GBP MIN
    CHI: DET GBP MIN LAR SEA CAR JAX TEN NEP
    MIN: CHI DET GBP ARI SFF ATL HOU IND NYJ
    CAR: ATL NOS TBB DAL NYG ARI KCC LAC CIN
    PHI: DAL NYG WAS ATL CAR GBP CFT PIT JAX

     

    The first three are division opponents
    The next three are conference opponents
    The next two are cross-conference opponents (desired under assumption 4)  These are ITALIC
    The ninth one (if there is one) is the "Game 17" opponent (highly desired under assmuption 5)  These are UNDERLINED

     

    If we throw out CHI/MIN/CAR/PHI as a visiting international team (assumption 1), non-London JAX-as-a-visitor (assumption 2), division opponents (assumption 3), and NFC/PIT AFC/GBP/DAL (assumption 6), we're left with:

     

    JAX: --- --- --- NEP NYJ CFT --- ---
    CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX TEN NEP
    MIN: --- --- --- ARI SFF ATL HOU IND NYJ
    CAR: --- --- --- DAL NYG ARI KCC LAC CIN
    PHI: --- --- --- ATL --- GBP CFT --- ---

     

    The following teams played Internationally last year - I see no way they'll go again this year:
    NEP KCC BAL ATL MIA TEN IND BUF (I've taken JAX off this list, for obvious reasons)

     

    We now have:

    JAX: --- --- --- --- NYJ CFT --- ---
    CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX --- ---
    MIN: --- --- --- ARI SFF --- HOU --- NYJ
    CAR: --- --- --- DAL NYG ARI --- LAC CIN
    PHI: --- --- --- --- --- GBP CFT --- ---

     

    With GBP-PHI confirmed for Brazil, we have:

     

    JAX: --- --- --- --- NYJ CFT --- ---
    CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX --- ---
    MIN: --- --- --- ARI SFF --- HOU --- NYJ
    CAR: --- --- --- DAL NYG ARI --- LAC CIN
    PHI: --- --- --- --- --- GBP --- --- ---

     

    JAX has only two opponents on the board, NYJ and CFT.  NYJ is also a highly-preferred opponent for MIN's game.  Frankly, with CFT (2017) not having played overseas for 4 years longer than the last NYJ trip (2021), I view CFT-JAX as a more likely paring than NYJ-JAX, which still leaves NYJ available for MIN.

     

    JAX: --- --- --- --- --- CFT --- ---
    CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX --- ---
    MIN: --- --- --- ARI SFF --- HOU --- NYJ
    CAR: --- --- --- DAL NYG ARI --- LAC CIN
    PHI: --- --- --- --- --- GBP --- --- ---

     

    This leaves CAR's situaton unchanged from before.  Their only AFC opponents are LAC/CIN, LAC is flying from the West Cost while CIN is a desired "Game 17" opponent, so again it looks like CIN-CAR makes the most sense,  MIN can host either HOU or NYJ...  HOU hasn't been since 2019, NYJ in 2021, so HOU now seems re-confirmed as MIN's most likely opponent.

     

    JAX: --- --- --- --- --- CFT --- ---
    CHI: --- --- --- LAR SEA --- JAX --- ---
    MIN: --- --- --- --- --- --- HOU --- ---
    CAR: --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- CIN
    PHI: --- --- --- --- --- GBP --- --- ---

     

    And as before, I know JAX *could* play CHI and get the back-to-back London games like in 2023. But LAR haven't played Internationally since 2019 (SEA was 2022), so even though it might make more sense for CHI to draw JAX (AFC), my guts tell me the NFL would prefer the higher-profile Rams in London.

     

    This makes the games:

     

    Wembley: Current Browns at Jaguars
    Spurs:  Rams at Bears / Texans at Vikings
    Allianz (Munich): Bengals at Panthers
    Sau Paulo Brazil: Packers at Eagles

     

    Of course, Jags at Bears (Spurs) or Jets at Vikings (Wembley) would all make sense too.

    • Upvote 1

  10. 2024 NFL Mock Draft

    in THE BENGALS FORUM - For Bengals Fans *Only*

    Posted

    On 3/14/2024 at 7:22 PM, spicoli said:


    Punter

     

    Agreed.   Robbins underwhelmed, don't know where Cristman ended up.  Why not draft a punter in Rd 7 and also bring a vet like Marquette King in to make it a decent competition?

     

    PS - King is a bazillion years old but is still kicking the hell out of the ball. This season he's in the UFL in Arlington and went 2-111 today including a 62-yarder. His presence alone would make Robbins and draft kid work their butts off.

  14. International Series 2024

    in THE BENGALS FORUM - For Bengals Fans *Only*

    Posted

    Hold the presses!  I just stumbled across this!

     

    Linky: https://sports.yahoo.com/either-packers-browns-play-eagles-175114816.html

     

    "Either Packers or Browns will play Eagles in Brazil for Week 1 of 2024 season


    Zach Kruse
    Tue, Mar 26, 2024"

     

    So, PHI is opening their season in Brazil, and based on the earlier tweet they're playing CFT.  And since it's Week One, no "loss of rest" issues since neither have a game before and both will have 2 extra days after.

     

    So CFT-PHI looks close to a lock if the leak is accurate.

     

     

    • Upvote 1

  15. International Series 2024

    in THE BENGALS FORUM - For Bengals Fans *Only*

    Posted

    Of course the term "Season Opener" here could mean the first Friday Night game of the season, not necessarily the first game of the entire season.  But even if that were the case and this game were mid-season, I doubt the league would make teams fly to Brazil for a Friday game, taking two days' rest off the table in a game the NFL wants to use to showcase their product and expand into a new market.  The only way I see CFT-PHI as still being Brazil is if both got a bye the week prior.... long but not impossible odds.

     

    In spite of all of that, I view this announcement as taking CFT-PHI out of Brazil and will find new International pairings as a result.

    • Upvote 1

  16. International Series 2024

    in THE BENGALS FORUM - For Bengals Fans *Only*

    Posted

    CFT-PHI will not be in Brazil.

    Screenshot_20240327_082009_X.jpg

     

    This makes GBP-PHI the leading candidate for Brazil, assuming no intra-divisional game and no team traveling in consecutive seasons.

     

    I'll redo the full analysis today, and I expect there will be some impact to the other International pairings, but I don't think this affects the likelihood of CIN-CAR significantly.

    • Upvote 1

  17. International Series 2024

    in THE BENGALS FORUM - For Bengals Fans *Only*

    Posted

    Current "acknowledged" processing time from the State Department for issuance of new Passports is 6-8 weeks.  Experience has shown that they under-estimate fairly regularly to avoid looking like total schmucks, and to generate extra revenue when people freak out and pay for last-minute "expedited" service.

     

    Realisitically, once your application is completed, your photo taken, and everything is double-checked and paid-for at your local full-service Post Office, you should get your Passport within 9-12 weeks.  Possibly sooner, but generally not.

     

    Nerdwallet recommends applying no less than 6 months before you need it, as they're reporting that State is "warning of massive delays".  State is recommending submitting the paperwork three months before you need the Passport, which by the +50% rule, means 4-1/2 months, minimum.

     

    If the game is in late October and you believe State, with the +50%, then you should apply by early June.  If you don't believe State, you should apply by mid April..... or, to put it another way.... immediately.

  20. Random 2024 Bengals related stuff

    in THE BENGALS FORUM - For Bengals Fans *Only*

    Posted

    On 3/20/2024 at 12:57 PM, Griever said:

     

     

     

    Thanks for posting this. 

     

    The NFL has made this VERY WORDY AND CONFUSING but it is very similar - I'd say nearly identical - to the kickoff rule used in the XFL.  Here's a video explaining the XFL kickoff rule - if you understand this, you'll pretty much understand the NFL version.  (This video explains ALL of the major XFL/NFL rule changes, kickoff was explained first so you only need to watch the first 40-50 seconds to get it.)

     

     

    It dramatically cut down on injuries, and turned the return basically into something similar to the old schoolyard game "Red Rover" that we used to play when I was a kid.  If the returner can find a hole and bust thru, he'll have only the kicker to beat to get to paydirt.

     

    The first KO TD was scored - of course - by the St Louis BattleHawks.  Ka-Kaw!!

     

    In 2023, the XFL modified the rules, adding stuff like "landing zones" and such, and it ended up making the kickoffs LESS exciting, as it resulted in the returner getting posession signficantly further behind the faceoff line, allowing the defense time to collapse and penetrate the returning team's line, limiting the opportunities for the returner to find the "Red Rover" hole and punch through.  I always thought that if the teams lined up five or ten yards closer to the returning team's end zone, the returner would have a better chance of busting through the line even though the defenders are all closer to him at the start.

     

    We'll see if the NFL's tweaks will improve this back to the "cool" level that the 2020 XFL set of return rules had.

     

    • Upvote 2

  21. Keeping our enemies close: 2024

    in THE BENGALS FORUM - For Bengals Fans *Only*

    Posted

    Let's bow our heads and thank the Jets for taking Zach Wilson in 2021

     

    1 - JAX - Trevor Lawrence (Pro Bowler)

    2 - NYJ - Zach Wilson (Jets can't even give him away)

    3 - SFF - Trey Lance (2nd or 3rd string in DAL)

    4 - ATL - Kyle Pitts (Pro Bowler)

    5 - CIN - Ja'Marr Chase (Pro Bowler)

    6 - MIA - Jaylen Waddle (was really good on my fantasy team when Hill was down this year)

    7 - DET - Penei Sewell (Pro Bowler)

    8 - CAR - Jaycee Horn (played all of 4 games last year and 20 in the three seasons since drafted)

    9 - DEN - Patrick Surtain II (Pro Bowler)

    10 - PHI - DeVonta Smith (kicked my butt in the Fantasy Bowl this year - lost by a TD because of that fucker)

     

    If NYJ had passed on Wilson and taken another QB, Lance, FIelds, and Mac Jones were the next three taken.  One washed up, one now a backup in PIT, and the last is a headcase.  And, as mentioned above, if Chase had gone before our pick, Sewell was our man.  He dosen't catch as well as Ja'Marr, but we might have been okay with him otherwise.

    • Upvote 2

  22. 2024 NFL Mock Draft

    in THE BENGALS FORUM - For Bengals Fans *Only*

    Posted

    In case anyone cares, here's the # of picks on Days 1 & 2 for each team - including compensatory selections and trades -as of all of the announced trades by midnight Saturday 3/16 (Ties broken in favor of more earlier round picks - AFC-N teams in bold)

     

    6 (1-1-2-3-3-3) ARI

    6 (1-2-2-3-3-3) WAS

    5 (1-2-2-3-3) GBP

    4 (1-2-3-3) ATL CIN LAR PIT TBB

    3 (1-1-3) CHI

    3 (1-2-2) PHI

    3 (1-2-3) BAL DAL DET IND JAX KCC LAC LVR NEP NYG SFF

    3 (2-2-3) CAR HOU

    2 (1-1) MIN

    2 (1-2) BUF DEN MIA NOS TEN

    2 (1-3) NYJ SEA

    2 (2-3) CFT

     

  23. Keeping our enemies close: 2024

    in THE BENGALS FORUM - For Bengals Fans *Only*

    Posted

    On 3/16/2024 at 11:33 PM, Le Tigre said:

     

     

    Denver spent way too much cash and capital and we're in a bind. They were stuck paying his ridonkulous salary whether he played for them on not, so PIT swooped in to exploit their mistake and got Wilson for nothing.

     

    In other words, DEN got drunk and was backed into a corner bathroom stall where PIT took advantage of them.

     

    The rape analogy still fits.

    • Upvote 2
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