Cold Hard Football Predictions

[Brew Crew Grrl]

[quote name='oftt4' post='540069' date='Sep 4 2007, 03:09 PM']I dont disagree with what you are saying, but there is no guarantee that he is going to transform your D in any positive way.[/quote]

OK.... let's break it down here.

You posted an article that said we're going 4-12 and falling to last in the division. Tell me how that makes any sense at all when....
1. Substitute a rookie DB for a DB that was slow and got burned a whole helluva lot, the switchero we did moving people around at LB, and no more Sam Adams and the D is pretty much the same.
2. We didn't have Perry or a solid backup at RB last year, Chris Henry missing multiple games, and injuries/shuffling of the O-Line and we've got pretty much the same O.
3. Not to mention the fact that this year our star QB is no longer recovering from major reconstructive knee surgery no thanks to a fucking Steeler.

Explain to me how we go 4-12 after 8-8

[oftt4]

[quote name='Jamie_B' post='540080' date='Sep 4 2007, 03:18 PM']And what guarntee to you have that he will ever be the same because of that? (you see I can play that game too)

I do remember his passing attempts going up last year.[/quote]

No guarantees. That is one of Steelers fans concerns going into this season. I can tell you, though, that he looked much less tentative in his play this preseason as compared to last year. He looked pretty sharp most of the time, we'll see how that translates to the regular season.

Adding to that, Ward will be healthy this year, Holmes (hopefully) will avoid those rookie mistakes and will be a go to receiver (he has looked pretty good in the preseason, but it was just preseason). The offense has been revamped and taylored to the strengths of the CURRENT roster as opposed to the way Cowher used to stick with what he wanted (power running game with Willie Parker? c'mon now).

When you add everything together, I think the Steelers will surprise some people this year. 16-0? No. SuperBowl? Probably not. But they will have a winning season, and they will almost certainly make the playoffs.

[oftt4]

[quote name='Brew Crew Grrl' post='540081' date='Sep 4 2007, 03:21 PM']OK.... let's break it down here.

You posted an article that said we're going 4-12 and falling to last in the division. Tell me how that makes any sense at all when....
1. Substitute a rookie DB for a DB that was slow and got burned a whole helluva lot, the switchero we did moving people around at LB, and no more Sam Adams and the D is pretty much the same.
2. We didn't have Perry or a solid backup at RB last year, Chris Henry missing multiple games, and injuries/shuffling of the O-Line and we've got pretty much the same O.
3. Not to mention the fact that this year our star QB is no longer recovering from major reconstructive knee surgery no thanks to a fucking Steeler.

Explain to me how we go 4-12 after 8-8 [/quote]


I didnt write the article, I posted it....if you want an answer to your question...click the link.

[Jamie_B]

Lets just get to the heart of the matter, Steelers fans dont like us as a competitve team, they want the old bengals that were an easy 2 wins a year for them, they cant swallow that they have to fight to win games against us now. They loved the old days when they didnt have to fight to get in the playoffs because the division was so bad. When they pound their chests to their "number of playoff appearances" they secretly hope you dont realize they were the only decent team in the division, thus making that stat a little hollow.

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='oftt4' post='540084' date='Sep 4 2007, 03:25 PM']No guarantees. That is one of Steelers fans concerns going into this season. I can tell you, though, that he looked much less tentative in his play this preseason as compared to last year. He looked pretty sharp most of the time, we'll see how that translates to the regular season.

Adding to that, Ward will be healthy this year, Holmes (hopefully) will avoid those rookie mistakes and will be a go to receiver (he has looked pretty good in the preseason, but it was just preseason). The offense has been revamped and taylored to the strengths of the CURRENT roster as opposed to the way Cowher used to stick with what he wanted (power running game with Willie Parker? c'mon now).

When you add everything together, I think the Steelers will surprise some people this year. 16-0? No. SuperBowl? Probably not. But they will have a winning season, and they will almost certainly make the playoffs.[/quote]


New offence, means you will take time to get it down even if Ben is "back to old".

Also your oline hasnt looked that great this preseason, yes its preseason, but that was a huge issue for you last year as well and what have you done to fix it? Let your oline coach go to AZ?

[TheChosenOne]

Anyway, this is the point I was trying to make. I admit I didn't exactly pick the best way of illustrating it.

Ben's high YPA is representative of a quarterback who is not asked to carry a major portion of the offensive load. (21 att/g in 2004, 22 att/g in 2005).

When he was asked to do so (469 att in 2006 for 31 att/g), his YPA dropped.

In Ben's case this is partially skewed by the fact that his performance also dropped, due to injuries and so on. But, even if he had put together a season that, in terms of passer rating, was comparable to his first two, he would not have had such a high YPA.

When a QB isn't throwing a lot of passes, though, it follows that the passes the QB does attempt are more likely to be of the intermediate and long variety (short-yardage passes are replaced by more short-yardage runs). Hence Ben's high YPA.

Now this ties into what Bengals fans always say about Ben not being able to carry an offensive load and I should stress here that I'm not saying Ben is a bad quarterback. If he can get the interceptions (something that's not really handled by YPA) down from 23 to about 14 or so, he will be very good. (Obviously from my biased viewpoint I don't think he will do that )

So what I'm saying is the stat has some value but you also have to look at attempts. Ben is really a fringe case because he passed so infrequently in his first two years, and it's hard to find other examples like him. But I think with the more "wide open" offense the Steelers are planning on using this year-- which basically equates to more pass attempts-- you will see Ben's YPA end up somewhere between 7.3 and 7.8. And that's wholly independent of how he ends up doing-- TD-INT ratio and so on.

I'm not arguing for passer rating here, it's a flawed formula that was sort of arbitrarily made up. Just that YPA is not the be-all end-all. Football Outsiders' stats are probably the best thing we have (and if I'm not mistaken they were based on research in the book you were talking about), but you can tell the guys there aren't so confident in them; they don't even quote them in their own predictions. So it will take a while for football's advanced stats to reach the level baseball's are at with sabermetrics, where they are not only superior to the basic stats, but also accepted (by some people) and used in predictions. But then again, football's normal stats aren't as bad as some of baseball's. Except tackles. Tackles are stupid.

Yeah, I really got off on a tangent there.

[Brew Crew Grrl]

[quote name='oftt4' post='540087' date='Sep 4 2007, 03:26 PM']I didnt write the article, I posted it....if you want an answer to your question...click the link.[/quote]
To quote you earlier in the thread...
[quote]Now I dont think Cinci will go 4-12....[b]but I dont think they will win more than 8 games this season.[/b][/quote]
And what I said....
[quote]You posted an article that said we're going 4-12 and falling to last in the division. Tell me how that makes any sense at all when....
1. Substitute a rookie DB for a DB that was slow and got burned a whole helluva lot, the switchero we did moving people around at LB, and no more Sam Adams and the D is pretty much the same.
2. We didn't have Perry or a solid backup at RB last year, Chris Henry missing multiple games, and injuries/shuffling of the O-Line and we've got pretty much the same O.
3. Not to mention the fact that this year our star QB is no longer recovering from major reconstructive knee surgery no thanks to a fucking Steeler.

Explain to me how we go 4-12 after 8-8[/quote]

Once again explain to me how we don't win at least 8 games??

[oftt4]

[quote name='Jamie_B' post='540089' date='Sep 4 2007, 03:30 PM']New offence, means you will take time to get it down even if Ben is "back to old".

Also your oline hasnt looked that great this preseason, yes its preseason, but that was a huge issue for you last year as well and what have you done to fix it? Let your oline coach go to AZ?[/quote]

Sure it will take time. But Ben was involved in creating the new playbook, so I think he will probably pick it up pretty quickly.

The o-line still is a concern. That is part of the reason they changed the playbook...3TE sets, 4 wide, etc to allow for quick passes...which makes a defense cover the underneath routes more tightly, which prevents them from sending too many blitzes, which prevents the Oline from having to stop them. I dont think OL will be as much of a problem this year, but it is still probably going to be a weakness.

[oftt4]

[quote name='Brew Crew Grrl' post='540091' date='Sep 4 2007, 03:35 PM']Once again explain to me how we don't win at least 8 games??[/quote]

Ok, here it goes.

You dont win at least 8 games....because you will lose 9.

For the record, I said you wont win MORE than 8.

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='oftt4' post='540092' date='Sep 4 2007, 03:37 PM']Sure it will take time. But Ben was involved in creating the new playbook, so I think he will probably pick it up pretty quickly.

The o-line still is a concern. That is part of the reason they changed the playbook...3TE sets, 4 wide, etc to allow for quick passes...which makes a defense cover the underneath routes more tightly, which prevents them from sending too many blitzes, which prevents the Oline from having to stop them. I dont think OL will be as much of a problem this year, but it is still probably going to be a weakness.[/quote]


Well see, for a guy rumored to not take studying tape that seriously, untill he can show it, it will be a wait and see.

Just means you can possibly see saftey or corner blitzes, short yardage games do make it tougher to get to the QB if your doing 3 step drops, but its not impossible to not have blitzes at all.

[Brew Crew Grrl]

[quote name='oftt4' post='540093' date='Sep 4 2007, 03:39 PM']Ok, here it goes.

You dont win at least 8 games....because you will lose 9.

For the record, I said you wont win MORE than 8.[/quote]
Seriously..... you need to quit smokin the same shit at that yahoo from CHFF

I'd say let's make a friendly little wager, but I have no use for the trailer you'd put up as a bet

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='oftt4' post='540093' date='Sep 4 2007, 03:39 PM']Ok, here it goes.

You dont win at least 8 games....because you will lose 9.

For the record, I said you wont win MORE than 8.[/quote]


How?

The schedule is ALOT more easy than it was last year, and were healthy at a number of spots that we werent last year or more experienced (we had alot of oline issues due to a 2nd year Center that had only ever started 1 game, he got better over the season and thats why we started getting better on O over the season last year).

Because David Pollack and Odell Thruman arent back? We didnt play with them last year either. David was hurt in the 1st game and played very little in the 2nd before he got injured. Odell didnt take a snap at all last year.

Are you really telling me that because Pollack and Thurman arent back, even after they werent here last year, that were only going to win 8 games max???


Now Ill concede that not having henry in for 8 games will hurt, but I dont think not having henry = 8 losses either.

[Brew Crew Grrl]

[quote name='Jamie_B' post='540097' date='Sep 4 2007, 03:46 PM']How?

The schedule is ALOT more easy than it was last year, and were healthy at a number of spots that we werent last year or more experienced (we had alot of oline issues due to a 2nd year Center that had only ever started 1 game, he got better over the season and thats why we started getting better on O over the season last year).

Because David Pollack and Odell Thruman arent back? We didnt play with them last year either. David was hurt in the 1st game and played very little in the 2nd before he got injured. Odell didnt take a snap at all last year.

Are you really telling me that because Pollack and Thurman arent back, even after they werent here last year, that were only going to win 8 games max???
Now Ill concede that not having henry in for 8 games will hurt, but I dont think not having henry = 8 losses either.[/quote]
^^My point exactly! Cept you forgot to mention no more Tory James too

[TheChosenOne]

oftt, I edited my post a lot of times, just so you know if you were replying. I kind of trailed off into nonsense at the end. I think I'm done with it now though.

[bammorrisgotmehigh]

AFC Championship


Steelers at Bengals






The internet would blow up

[|Bunghole|]

[quote name='bammorrisgotmehigh' post='540200' date='Sep 4 2007, 05:49 PM']AFC Championship
Steelers at Bengals
The internet would blow up [/quote]
I think that would be awesome for an AFC Champ game....

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='bammorrisgotmehigh' post='540200' date='Sep 4 2007, 07:49 PM']AFC Championship
Steelers at Bengals
The internet would blow up [/quote]




You aint kidding

[oftt4]

[quote name='TheChosenOne' post='540090' date='Sep 4 2007, 03:34 PM']Anyway, this is the point I was trying to make. I admit I didn't exactly pick the best way of illustrating it.

Ben's high YPA is representative of a quarterback who is not asked to carry a major portion of the offensive load. (21 att/g in 2004, 22 att/g in 2005).

When he was asked to do so (469 att in 2006 for 31 att/g), his YPA dropped.

In Ben's case this is partially skewed by the fact that his performance also dropped, due to injuries and so on. But, even if he had put together a season that, in terms of passer rating, was comparable to his first two, he would not have had such a high YPA.

When a QB isn't throwing a lot of passes, though, it follows that the passes the QB does attempt are more likely to be of the intermediate and long variety (short-yardage passes are replaced by more short-yardage runs). Hence Ben's high YPA.

Now this ties into what Bengals fans always say about Ben not being able to carry an offensive load and I should stress here that I'm not saying Ben is a bad quarterback. If he can get the interceptions (something that's not really handled by YPA) down from 23 to about 14 or so, he will be very good. (Obviously from my biased viewpoint I don't think he will do that )

So what I'm saying is the stat has some value but you also have to look at attempts. Ben is really a fringe case because he passed so infrequently in his first two years, and it's hard to find other examples like him. But I think with the more "wide open" offense the Steelers are planning on using this year-- which basically equates to more pass attempts-- you will see Ben's YPA end up somewhere between 7.3 and 7.8. And that's wholly independent of how he ends up doing-- TD-INT ratio and so on.

I'm not arguing for passer rating here, it's a flawed formula that was sort of arbitrarily made up. Just that YPA is not the be-all end-all. Football Outsiders' stats are probably the best thing we have (and if I'm not mistaken they were based on research in the book you were talking about), but you can tell the guys there aren't so confident in them; they don't even quote them in their own predictions. So it will take a while for football's advanced stats to reach the level baseball's are at with sabermetrics, where they are not only superior to the basic stats, but also accepted (by some people) and used in predictions. But then again, football's normal stats aren't as bad as some of baseball's. Except tackles. Tackles are stupid.

Yeah, I really got off on a tangent there.[/quote]



In 2005 Ben was first in YPA, Peyton Manning was 2nd.
In 2004 Ben was second in YPA, Peyton Manning was 1st.

So, by your definition...Peyton Manning has a high YPA because he was not asked to carry a major portion of the offensive load. Your argument doesnt make sense. The fact that Ben's yard per attempt was high means that he DOESNT NEED TO throw the ball 35 times a game. He is efficient. If you average 9 yards per attempt, then 21-22 attempts gets you all the yardage you need, especially when you also have a capable running game.

Another point I would like to make, and something you Bengal fans refuse to admit, is that the Steelers in 04 and 05 did throw a lot, and did rely on Ben.

In 2004, Ben averaged 21 or 22 attempts per game, just like you said. What you fail to realize (or refuse to admit) is that Ben threw about 79% of his passes and 79% of his yards in the first 3 quarters.

In 2005, Ben averaged 21 or 22 attempts per game, just like you said. Again, Ben threw about 82% of his passes and 87% of his yards in the first 3 quarters.

The Bill Cowher way to play with the lead (which the Steelers usually had, considering they were 15-1, then 11-5) is to run, run, run, punt. So they just didnt throw the ball much in the 4th quarter, if you are winning in the 4th quarter...there isnt a need to throw the ball 10-12 more times, just a few times here or there to mix it up.

The reason Ben didnt throw the ball 30-40 times a game in 04 and 05 isnt because he couldnt handle it, it is because he was good enough with the 21-22 attempts that he didnt need to.


As far as FO, I agree they are pretty accurate stats, though not perfect. So can I assume that you agree with DVOA and DPAR being accurate? If so, and Ben couldnt "carry his offense" then explain to me how:

in 2004 Ben was 3rd in DVOA 40.3%
in 2005 Ben was 3rd in DVOA 33.5%
in 2006 Ben was 15th in DVOA 6.6% (even in his poorest performance, during an injury plagued year, he was above average according to FO).

For those who dont know, DVOA is Defense Adjusted Value Over Average (or the value, per play, over an average QB in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance).

I agree with you about football stats being nearly useless. That is what the book "The Hidden Game of Football" is about. I really suggest you read it if you havent.

There. I have countered your tangent with my own.

[oftt4]

[quote name='Brew Crew Grrl' post='540096' date='Sep 4 2007, 03:43 PM']Seriously..... you need to quit smokin the same shit at that yahoo from CHFF

I'd say let's make a friendly little wager, but I have no use for the trailer you'd put up as a bet [/quote]

I was going to send an insult back at you, but I chose not to. I will just say this...dont make assumptions...you usually just end up looking stupid.

Anyway, I already have a standing wager for the head to head games here with Jaime. That is if he is still interested.

I also suggested one about Ben's passer rating this season being 15 points higher than last season, but I didnt get any takers on that one.

As for the 8-8 thing. I can make that statement because that has been the Bengals record for 3 of the last 4 years, and the team has a piss poor defense, Henry is gone for 8 games, you dont have a back up RB, you play in a tough division, you are playing some tough games outside the division... It's not like I am just pulling it out of nowhere.

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='oftt4' post='540400' date='Sep 5 2007, 09:16 AM']I was going to send an insult back at you, but I chose not to. I will just say this...dont make assumptions...you usually just end up looking stupid.

Anyway, I already have a standing wager for the head to head games here with Jaime. That is if he is still interested.

I also suggested one about Ben's passer rating this season being 15 points higher than last season, but I didnt get any takers on that one.

As for the 8-8 thing. I can make that statement because that has been the Bengals record for 3 of the last 4 years, and the team has a piss poor defense, Henry is gone for 8 games, you dont have a back up RB, you play in a tough division, you are playing some tough games outside the division... It's not like I am just pulling it out of nowhere.[/quote]


Both games again im assuming?

[Brew Crew Grrl]

[quote name='oftt4' post='540400' date='Sep 5 2007, 09:16 AM']I was going to send an insult back at you, but I chose not to. I will just say this...dont make assumptions...you usually just end up looking stupid.

Anyway, I already have a standing wager for the head to head games here with Jaime. That is if he is still interested.

I also suggested one about Ben's passer rating this season being 15 points higher than last season, but I didnt get any takers on that one.

As for the 8-8 thing. I can make that statement because that has been the Bengals record for 3 of the last 4 years, and the team has a piss poor defense, Henry is gone for 8 games, you dont have a back up RB, you play in a tough division, you are playing some tough games outside the division... It's not like [b]I am just pulling it out of nowhere.[/b][/quote]

I'd like to refer to this final paragraph as wishful thinking. Scared.... aren't ya

[oftt4]

[quote name='Jamie_B' post='540468' date='Sep 5 2007, 11:50 AM']Both games again im assuming?[/quote]

Sure.


[quote name='Brew Crew Grrl' post='540475' date='Sep 5 2007, 12:11 PM']I'd like to refer to this final paragraph as wishful thinking. Scared.... aren't ya [/quote]

This comment makes no sense what-so-ever. Based on my post, you are asking if I am scared of the Bengals long (and recent) history of ineptitude and current lack of a respectable defense. Uh...no?

I dont look at the Bengals games as two automatic wins on the schedule, I never have. I dont look at the Browns as two automatic wins this year. Division opponents are always tough games.

You act as if the Bengals have swept us the last 3 years. You do realize that the Bengals havent won two games against pissburgh in one season since 1998. Meanwhile, we have done it against you in 00, 02, 04, and 05 (including PO's). Sure you might do it this year, or we might sweep you. Am I "scared". No, not really.

[Vol_Bengal]

[quote name='oftt4' post='540398' date='Sep 5 2007, 08:59 AM']In 2005 Ben was first in YPA, Peyton Manning was 2nd.
In 2004 Ben was second in YPA, Peyton Manning was 1st.

So, by your definition...Peyton Manning has a high YPA because he was not asked to carry a major portion of the offensive load. Your argument doesnt make sense. The fact that Ben's yard per attempt was high means that he DOESNT NEED TO throw the ball 35 times a game. He is efficient. If you average 9 yards per attempt, then 21-22 attempts gets you all the yardage you need, especially when you also have a capable running game.

Another point I would like to make, and something you Bengal fans refuse to admit, is that the Steelers in 04 and 05 did throw a lot, and did rely on Ben.

In 2004, Ben averaged 21 or 22 attempts per game, just like you said. What you fail to realize (or refuse to admit) is that Ben threw about 79% of his passes and 79% of his yards in the first 3 quarters.

In 2005, Ben averaged 21 or 22 attempts per game, just like you said. Again, Ben threw about 82% of his passes and 87% of his yards in the first 3 quarters.

The Bill Cowher way to play with the lead (which the Steelers usually had, considering they were 15-1, then 11-5) is to run, run, run, punt. So they just didnt throw the ball much in the 4th quarter, if you are winning in the 4th quarter...there isnt a need to throw the ball 10-12 more times, just a few times here or there to mix it up.

The reason Ben didnt throw the ball 30-40 times a game in 04 and 05 isnt because he couldnt handle it, it is because he was good enough with the 21-22 attempts that he didnt need to.
As far as FO, I agree they are pretty accurate stats, though not perfect. So can I assume that you agree with DVOA and DPAR being accurate? If so, and Ben couldnt "carry his offense" then explain to me how:

in 2004 Ben was 3rd in DVOA 40.3%
in 2005 Ben was 3rd in DVOA 33.5%
in 2006 Ben was 15th in DVOA 6.6% (even in his poorest performance, during an injury plagued year, he was above average according to FO).

For those who dont know, DVOA is Defense Adjusted Value Over Average (or the value, per play, over an average QB in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance).

I agree with you about football stats being nearly useless. That is what the book "The Hidden Game of Football" is about. I really suggest you read it if you havent.

There. I have countered your tangent with my own.[/quote]
Aside from your BS, using all your statistics, etc. and bullshit that you're throwing up hoping something will stick, what do you have to explain your starting qb offering a 22.6 rating in the Super Bowl? 9 of 21, 2 INT's... Ray Charles and Stevie Wonder could have generated that stat line.

Is that the kind of guy that is "special"? Didn't think so.

[Vol_Bengal]

[quote name='oftt4' post='540527' date='Sep 5 2007, 01:20 PM']Sure.
This comment makes no sense what-so-ever. Based on my post, you are asking if I am scared of the Bengals long (and recent) history of ineptitude and current lack of a respectable defense. Uh...no?

I dont look at the Bengals games as two automatic wins on the schedule, I never have. I dont look at the Browns as two automatic wins this year. Division opponents are always tough games.

You act as if the Bengals have swept us the last 3 years. You do realize that the Bengals havent won two games against pissburgh in one season since 1998. Meanwhile, we have done it against you in 00, 02, 04, and 05 (including PO's). Sure you might do it this year, or we might sweep you. Am I "scared". No, not really.[/quote]
Actually, not in 05. We beat you at your place in December. That was when TJ used the towel to wipe the shit off his cleats...

[Brew Crew Grrl]

[quote name='oftt4' post='540527' date='Sep 5 2007, 01:20 PM']Sure.
This comment makes no sense what-so-ever. Based on my post, you are asking if I am scared of the Bengals long (and recent) history of ineptitude and current lack of a respectable defense. Uh...no?

I dont look at the Bengals games as two automatic wins on the schedule, I never have. I dont look at the Browns as two automatic wins this year. Division opponents are always tough games.

You act as if the Bengals have swept us the last 3 years. You do realize that the Bengals havent won two games against pissburgh in one season since 1998. Meanwhile, we have done it against you in 00, 02, 04, and 05 (including PO's). Sure you might do it this year, or we might sweep you. Am I "scared". No, not really.[/quote]
Ya didn't sweep us in 05. We took the second game 38-31. I still think waay to many people (yourself included) still think of us as the pre-Marvin Bengals. Its a different team , different attitude, a a QB who has the capablility of taking them to the top. Take the black and piss yellow blinders off why don't ya

BTW.... say we've got a piss poor D all you want, but the voters of ESPN thought differently putting roughly 8 or 9 AFC teams below us. We get that D fully functional and the Steeler's jerseys won't be the only thing that looks as though its been urinated on