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2010 Reds gameday thread!


JBandJoeyV

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[quote name='Hooky' timestamp='1285851315' post='924619']
The Reds are locked in at the #3 seed, so they will either play the Phils (If Braves win wild Card) or the West Champs (If West runner-up wins wild Card) and not have home field.

According to MLB.com, The Phils are playing on Wednesday and the other NL series starts on Thursday.
[/quote]

Uh...no we arent...Giants are up 2 on us with 4 to play...would it be hard to get the 2
seed? Yeah, but its possible.
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[quote name='CJandTO' timestamp='1285852828' post='924629']
Uh...no we arent...Giants are up 2 on us with 4 to play...would it be hard to get the 2
seed? Yeah, but its possible.
[/quote]

It will be impossible. The Giants are up 2 games plus the tie breaker. The best the Reds can finish is 91 wins. The least amount of wins that the West champs will have is 91 since the Giants and Padres play each other. And the Reds lose the tie breaker to both teams due to Head to Head record.
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[quote name='Hooky' timestamp='1285853954' post='924637']
It will be impossible. The Giants are up 2 games plus the tie breaker. The best the Reds can finish is 91 wins. The least amount of wins that the West champs will have is 91 since the Giants and Padres play each other. And the Reds lose the tie breaker to both teams due to Head to Head record.
[/quote]

We have 4 games left, we have 88 wins, most wins we can get is 92.

If the Padres lose today, then sweep the Giants, and we win out we can get the two seed.
Or if the giants lose today and then lose 2 of 3 to the pads.


Once again, it will be very hard, but possible.
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[quote name='CJandTO' timestamp='1285854518' post='924642']
We have 4 games left, we have 88 wins, most wins we can get is 92.

If the Padres lose today, then sweep the Giants, and we win out we can get the two seed.
Or if the giants lose today and then lose 2 of 3 to the pads.


Once again, it will be very hard, but possible.
[/quote]

I was thinking the Reds had 3 games left. I got ahead of myself, but that's still a lot of ifs.
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[quote name='Hooky' timestamp='1285855576' post='924649']
I was thinking the Reds had 3 games left. I got ahead of myself, but that's still a lot of ifs.
[/quote]

Yeah our magic number to clinch the two seed is 7 against the giants, and 5 against the Pads.

It would be tough, need them both to lose today and us to win.
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Wednesday's NL results:
ATL 5, FLA 1
HOU 2, CIN 0
SDP 3, CHI 0
SFG 3, ARI 1

Wild Card Race:
ATL 90-69 ---
SDP 88-70 1.5

Reds vs NL West Race:
SFG 90-68 ---
CIN 88-70 2.0
SDP 88-70 2.0

Remaining games:

CIN: HOU-MIL-MIL-MIL
ATL: off-PHI-PHI-PHI (Philly can kill off the Braves if they want)
SFG: ARI-SDP-SDP-SDP
SDP: CHI-@SF-@SF-@SF (The Padres can help us here)

Current Seeds:
1-PHI 95-64 (would play CIN)
2-SFG 90-68 (would play ATL)
3-CIN 88-70
4-ATL 90-69

PHI has locked-up the #1 seed
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Thursday's NL results:
ATL off
CIN 9, HOU 1
SFG 4. ARO 1
CHI 1, SDP 0

Wild Card Race:
ATL 90-69 ---
SDP 88-71 2.0

Reds vs NL West Race:
SFG 91-68 ---
CIN 89-70 2.0
SDP 88-71 3.0

Remaining games:

CIN: MIL-MIL-MIL
ATL: PHI-PHI-PHI (Philly can kill off the Braves if they want)
SFG: SDP-SDP-SDP
SDP: @SF-@SF-@SF (The Padres can help us here)

Current Seeds:
1-PHI 95-64 (would play CIN)
2-SFG 91-68 (would play ATL)
3-CIN 89-70
4-ATL 90-69

PHI has locked-up the #1 seed

SFG:
- Can clinch division and #2 seed with any win over SDP (they have 3 chances)
- With 3 losses, SFG can still clinch wildcard with 3 ATL losses to PHI, but are eliminated with 2 or more ATL wins. Would enter 3-team playoff (with SDP and ATL) if ATL wins exactly one game vs PHI. SFG at SDP (Monday) for West title, loser at ATL (Tuesday) for Wild Card.

CIN:
- Have clinched division. Will clinch #2 seed with sweep over MIL and SDP sweep over SFG. Any loss or SFG win will lock-up #3 seed for CIN.

SDP:
- Can clinch division with sweep over SFG and EITHER (a) PHI sweep over ATL, or (B) ATL wins two or more games vs PHI. Would be #2 seed if CIN does not sweep MIL, would be #3 seed otherwise.
- Can tie for division with sweep over SFG and exactly one ATL win over PHI. Will play one-game playoff at home vs SFG for division title on Monday. If they lose, will play one-game playoff at ATL for Wild Card on Tuesday.
- Can force Wild Card playoff (at ATL on Monday) with two wins over SFG and PHI sweep over ATL.
- Eliminated with two losses vs SFG, or with one loss vs SFG and one ATL win over PHI

ATL:
- Can clinch Wild Card outright with 2 wins, 2 SDP losses, or 1 of each.
- Can tie for Wild Card with 1 win and SDP sweep of SFG. Would host Wild Card playoff game on Tuesday vs loser of Monday's SFG @ SDP playoff game.
- Can tie for Wild Card with 0 wins and 1 SDP loss to SFG. Would host Wild Card playoff game on Monday vs SDP.
- Eliminated otherwise.

Rationale:
- CIN has lost season series to both SDP and SFG, so West Champion will have higher seed than Reds if both finish tied with same record.
- If SDP and SFG finish tied in West (91-71) and ATL is swept (90-72), both SDP and SFG will make playoffs. SDP would be division champ based on better head-to-head record than SFG, SFG would be wild card
- If SDP and SFG finish tied and ATL wins at least 2 (92-70 or better), ATL wins Wild Card outright and SFG at SDP playoff would settle division.
- If all 3 finish tied at 91-71 (SDP sweeps, ATL goes 1-2), SDP/SFG settle division first, loser plays at ATL for wild card second.
- SDP hosts SFG for division playoff game based on better head-to-head record
- ATL hosts wild card playoff game based on better head-to-head record vs both possible opponents

First Round Pairings: PHI will play Wild Card if that team is SDP or SFG, PHI will play #3 seed if ATL wins Wild Card. The #2 seed will play ATL (if they're the Wild Card) or the #3 seed (otherwise).

Assuming a 50-50 outcome for each of the 9 remaining games of interest (MIL at CIN, SDP at SFG, ATL at PHI), as well as any possible playoff tiebreaker games, here are the Reds' playoff scenarios:

92.7% play at Philadelphia (= 474.5/512)
3.4% play at San Francisco (= 17.25/512)
2.4% play at San Diego (= 12.25/512)
1.1% host Atlanta (= 5.5/512)
0.3% host San Diego (= 1.75/512)
0.1% host San Francisco (= 0.75/512)
ZERO host Philadelphia, play at Atlanta

The Reds play at home ONLY with a Sweep and a Padres sweep. Go Padres.

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