If the NFL used a promotion/relegation system...

[AmishBengalFan]

Background: In nearly all non-North American sports leagues, a promotion/relegation system is employed that keeps the best teams in the top tiers and forces teams that do poorly into lower tiers. In England, the top 20 soccer clubs in the nation play in the Premiership. At the end of the season, the three teams that finish at the bottom of the standings are kicked down to the next-lower level (the "Football Championship" it's called) while three clubs from that level promote up. There are several levels of play (I've lost track, but it's in the low-teens I believe) and even brand-new clubs that meet the Football Associations minimum standards and enter at the very bottom can - after years of good play - work their way all the way to the top.

Background 2: I'm NOT suggesting that the NFL implement any of the following, but I thought it would be curious to consider what the impact would have been if the league were divided into heirarchical divisions instead of geographic ones. I made several assumptions along the way, all of which I explain below, and have numbers to back everything up.

Assumptions:
(1) We begin in 1970 after the NFL-AFL merger. All 26 teams are lumped together into one big pile. The league will divide into two halves (upper and lower) based on the final 1970 standings. We aim to have 13 teams in each half, but there are no tiebreakers other than win-loss percentage... if two teams tie for the 13th spot in the upper half for 1971, both get in.
(2) Each year from 1971 to 1973, an additional tier is added so that when play begins in 1973 there are 4 tiers. Call them what you will, I refer to them simply as Tier 1, Tier 2, etc. With 26 teams, the split would be 8-6-6-6. Once the 4-tier plateau is reached, promotion/relegation consists of 2 teams moving between adjacent tiers each season. Tiebreakers between teams in the same tier with the same record are: (a) playoff teams ranked higher than non-playoff teams, then ( use the previous year's ranking.
(3) As expansion teams are introduced (2 in 1976, 2 in 1995, 1 in 1999, 1 in 2002), the new teams enter at the bottom, and the # of promotions/relegations are temporarily adjusted so that the whole league moves toward an 8-8-8-8 split. For example, in 1976, the expansion Seahawks and Buccaneers enter in Tier 4, but that would have overloaded that tier with 8 teams if the 1975 promotion/relegation scheme were not adjusted. So after the 1975 season, instead of 2 teams moving between tiers in both directions, the scheme is temporarily adjusted so that only 1 team relegates from Tier 2 to Tier 3 while 3 promote from Tier 3 to Tier 2, ditto the Tier 3/Tier 4 movement.

Head spinning yet. Don't worry. It doesn't have to make sense to you as much as it did to me.

1970 - Bengals go 8-6 0.571. Tie with Kansas City for 11th-best in the NFL. Move to Tier 1 (of 2) for 1971
1971 - T1 Bengals 4-10 0.286. Tied for dead last in T-1 with Giants. Giants win tiebreak based on better 1970 record (9-5 vs 8-6). Drop to Tier 3 for 1972
1972 - T3 Bengals 8-6 0.571. Tie with Giants for 2nd place, but lose tiebreak to Giants (NY still ranked ahead based on better 1970 record). Remain in T-3, but avoid dropping to new T-4 for 1973.
1973 - T3 Bengals 10-4 0.714. 2nd place, promote to T-2
1974 - T2 Bengals 7-7 0.500. Good enough for 2nd place within underperforming T-2 teams (Rams 10-4, Lions 7-7, Packers 6-8, 49ers 6-8, Chiefs 5-9). Promote to T-1. Woo hoo!
1975 - T1 Bengals 11-3 0.786 but only 5th place (Steelers 12-2, Vikings 12-2, Rams 12-2, Raiders 11-3, Bengals 11-3, Dolphins 10-4, Cowboys 10-4, Redskins 8-6). We remain T-1
1976 - T1 Bengals 10-4 0.714 and 6th place (Raiders 13-1, Vikings 11-2-1, Cowboys 11-3, Rams 10-3-1, Steelers 10-4, Bengals 10-4, Lions 6-8, Bills 2-12). We stay again.
1977 - T1 Bengals 8-6 0.571 and 7th place (Cowboys 12-2, Raiders 11-3, Rams 10-4, Vikings 9-5, Steelers 9-5, Redskins 9-5, Bengals 8-6, Cardinals 7-7). We relegate to T-2
1978 - T2 Bengals 4-12 0.250 and 8th place (Dolphins 11-5, Patriots 11-5, Oilers 10-6, Browns 8-8, Bears 7-9, Lions 7-9, Cardinals 6-10, Bengals 4-12). We relegate to T-3
1979 - T3 Bengals 4-12 0.250 and last place again (Chargers 12-4, Seahawks 9-7, Giants 6-10, Packers 5-11, Cardinals 5-11, Bengals 4-12). The slide continues as we relegate to the bottom tier (T-4), but at least the Cardinals have been keeping us company for a few years!
1980 - T4 Bengals 6-10 0.375 and 3rd place (Bills 11-5, Chiefs 8-8, Bengals 6-10, 49ers 6-10, Cardinals 5-11, Saints 1-15). We hang in T-4
1981 - T4 Bengals 12-4 0.750 and 2nd place (49ers 13-3, Bengals 12-4, Jets 10-5-1, Giants 9-7, Cardinals 7-9, Saints 4-12). Our first Super Bowl trip only gets us a bump-up to T-3, but at least we're not alone (49ers in same fix).
1982 - T3 Bengals 7-2 0.778 and 2nd place (Redskins 8-1, Bengals 7-2, Browns 4-5, 49ers 3-6, Chiefs 3-6, Colts 0-8-1). Two years two promotions, hello T-2!
1983 - T2 Bengals 7-9 0.438 and 7th place (Redskins 14-2, Lions 9-7, Broncos 9-7, Vikings 8-8, Patriots 8-8, Bills 8-8, Bengals 7-9, Oilers 2-14). Two wins away from promotion, and only one away from staying, we relegate to T3 for 1984

I'll not plug EVERY season into this thread. Here's a summary of the highlights:

We spend 1984-1988 in T-3, earning promotion to T-2 with our 12-4 Superbowl season
We spend 1989-1991 in T-2, never really competing for promotion, then fall to 3-13 and drop (with Cleveland) to T-3
In 1992 the wheels fall off and a 5-11 season drops us to T-4
We spend 1993-1997 in T-4 and only a 7-9 season plus a tiebreak over Atlanta sees us crawl up to T-3, but we get slapped back down to T-4 after a 3-13 mark in 1998
We stay in T-4 until after Marvin gets here. Then things start to improve:

2003 - T4 Bengals 8-8 0.500 and 3rd place. (Panthers 11-5, Cowboys 10-6, Bengals 8-8, Bears 7-9, Redskins 5-11, Texans 5-11, Lions 5-11, Cardinals 4-12). Not bad for a team that finished dead last in the lowest tier the year before. We remain in T-4 but things look better.
2004 - T4 Bengals 8-8 0.500 and 2nd place. (Chargers 12-4, Bengals 8-8, Texans 7-9, Redskins 6-10, Lions 6-10, Cardinals 6-10, Bears 5-11, Browns 4-12). Promotion!
2005 - T3 Bengals 11-5 0.688 and 2nd place. (Jaguars 12-4, Bengals 11-5, Chargers 9-7, Vikings 9-7, Bills 5-11, Raiders 4-12, 49ers 4-12, Saints 3-13). Promotion!
2006 - T2 Bengals 8-8 0.500 and 4th place. (Jets 10-6, Chiefs 9-7, Jaguars 8-8, Bengals 8-8, Titans 8-8, Falcons 7-9, Dolphins 6-10, Buccaneers 4-12). We hang around.
2007 - T2 Bengals 7-9 0.438 and 7th place. (Packers 13-3, Chargers 11-5, Jaguars 11-5, Steelers 10-6, Titans 10-6, Bears 7-9, Bengals 7-9, Falcons 4-12). Relegation.
2008 - T3 Bengals 4-11-1 0.281 and 7th place. (Panthers 12-4, Ravens 11-5, Falcons 11-5, Redskins 8-8, Saints 8-8, Bills 7-9, Bengals 4-11-1, Browns 4-12). Relegation.
2009 - T4 Bengals 10-6 0.625 and 2nd place. (Cardinals 10-6, Bengals 10-6, Texans 9-7, 49ers 8-8, Raider 5-11, Browns 5-11, Lions 2-14, Rams 1-15). Promotion

For the 2010 season, your division standings look like this:

^ = Will promote next year
- = Will remain next year
v = Will relegate next year
? = Promotion/Relegation status uncertain
(#) = Ranking last year - used for tiebreak

Tier 1
13-2 - New England (8)
11-4 - Pittsburgh (11)
10-4 - Philadelphia (5)
9-6 - Indianapolis (1)
9-6 - Green Bay (7)
8-6 - San Diego (2)
6-9 v Tennessee (16) - Relegated
5-10 v Dallas (6) - Relegated

Tier 2
11-4 ? New Orleans (3) - NO promotes with win OR BAL loss OR CHI loss
11-4 ? Baltimore (12) - BAL promotes with win OR CHI loss
11-4 ? Chicago (22) - CHI promotes with win AND EITHER NO or BAL loss
10-5 - NY Jets (14)
9-6 - NY Giants (17)
5-9 - Minnesota (4)
4-11 v Denver (19) - Relegated
2-13 v Carolina (18) - Relegated

Tier 3
12-3 ^ Atlanta (13) - Promoted
9-6 ? Tampa Bay (30) - TB promotes with win OR JAX loss
8-7 ? Jacksonville (23) - JAX promotes with win AND TB loss
7-8 - Miami (21)
6-9 - Seattle (26)
5-10 - Arizona (9)
4-11 v Cincinnati (10) - Relegated
4-11 v Buffalo (24) - Relegated

Tier 4
10-5 ^ Kansas City (29) - Promoted
7-8 ? Oakland (25) - OAK promotes with STL loss
7-8 ? St Louis (32) - STL promotes with win
6-9 - Washington (28)
5-10 - Houston (15)
5-10 - San Francisco (20)
5-10 - Cleveland (27)
5-10 - Detroit (31)

The 2011 alignment would look like:

T1: NEP PIT PHI IND GBP SDC *NOS *BAL
T2: TEN DAL *CHI NYJ NYG MIN ATL *TBB
T3: DEN CAR *JAX MIA SEA ARI KCC *OAK
T4: CIN BUF *STL WAS HOU SFF CLE DET
*-Based on current standings, may change

So, if the NFL used a system like this, we would be in the bottom tier heading into 2011. Shocker!

[sois]

This is a kind of a cool post, +1

[Arkansas Bengal]

You can't use the UK model for comparison purposes because the teams in the Premier League don't play games against teams in the Championship League. In your example above, the teams from Tier 1 would only play other teams in Tier 1; teams in Tier 2 would only play Tier 2, etc.

Of course, you have me on ignore, so you will probably never see this...

[MrDingleDangle]

I love it when you make posts like this

[Bgal]

Woah. Interesting...

[AmishBengalFan]

When I did all of the above, all I used was each team's end-of-year standings to determine what tier they would be in and whether they would promote/relegate a level for the following year. The biggest flaw in this is that the reason you'd use a system like this would be to have teams on a given level play ONLY other teams on that same level. When you're on Tier 3, for example, you try to become one of the two best teams on that Tier to crawl up a level. Instead, with the NFL using it's ordinary scheduling formulae, you've got teams playing other Tiers all willy-nilly.

Also, if the NFL *were* to use a system like this, I would think that there'd really only be 3 Tiers. I opted for 4 because there are 32 teams and things divide nicely into 8-8-8-8 chunks. If there were 2 fewer teams, I could easily see a 10-10-10 format with teams playing an 18-game season involving a home-and-home against all other opponents in their tier.

Last, I could EASILY see a system like this only auto-promote one team and use a post-season challenge game for the 2nd promotion spot. For example, between Tiers 2 and 3 this year, Atlanta (12-3) would automatically promote while Carolina (2-13) would be relegated. The 2nd place team from Tier 3 (TB or JAX) would play the 7th place team from Tier 2 (Denver) for the right to promote. In essence, Carolina killed themselves with their 13-loss season, and Denver has to defend their right to stay against a challenger from below them. Would make for a keenly interesting post-season.

PS, I would give all of the top draft picks to the lowest tier teams. That way the best players come in at "the bottom" and have to help their teams work their way up while playing against proportionally weaker competition.

All of this is just a fantasy, but I had a long weekend and time to kill between games anyway.

[AmishBengalFan]

Here are the hypothetical final 2010 standings:

Tier 1
14-2 - New England (1) - Overall Champion
12-4 - Pittsburgh (3)
10-6 - Indianapolis (8)
10-6 - Philadelphia (9)
10-6 - Green Bay (10)
9-7 - San Diego (14)
6-10 v Dallas (21) - Relegated
6-10 v Tennessee (23) - Relegated

Tier 2
12-4 ^ Baltimore (4) - Tier Champion, Promoted
11-5 ^ New Orleans (5) - Promoted
11-5 - NY Jets (6)
11-5 - Chicago (7)
10-6 - NY Giants (11)
6-10 - Minnesota (20)
4-12 v Denver (30) - Relegated
2-14 v Carolina (32) - Relegated

Tier 3
13-3 ^ Atlanta (2) - Tier Champion, Promoted
10-6 ^ Tampa Bay (13) - Promoted
8-8 - Jacksonville (15)
7-9 - Miami (17)
7-9 - Seattle (18)
5-11 - Arizona (27)
4-12 v Cincinnati (29) - Relegated
4-12 v Buffalo (31) - Relegated

Tier 4
10-6 ^ Kansas City (12) - Tier Champion, Promoted
8-8 ^ Oakland (16) - Promoted
7-9 - St Louis (19)
6-10 - Houston (22)
6-10 - San Francisco (24)
6-10 - Washington (25)
6-10 - Detroit (26)
5-11 - Cleveland (28) - Last Place Overall

^ = Will promote next year
- = Will remain next year
v = Will relegate next year
(#) = 2010 final ranking, used for tiebreaker in 2011 (lower is better)

The 2011 alignment would be:
T-1: NEP/01 PIT/03 BAL/04 NOS/05 IND/08 PHI/09 GBP/10 SDC/14
T-2: ATL/02 NYJ/06 CHI/07 NYG/11 TBB/13 MIN/20 DAL/21 TEN/23
T-3: KCC/12 JAX/15 OAK/16 MIA/17 SEA/18 ARI/27 DEN/30 CAR/32
T-4: STL/19 HOU/22 SFF/24 WAS/25 DET/26 CLE/28 CIN/29 BUF/31

[MichaelWeston]

You know where this would be really cool? College football.

[-GoBengals-]

[quote name='Arkansas Bengal' timestamp='1293577141' post='954774']
You can't use the UK model for comparison purposes because the teams in the Premier League don't play games against teams in the Championship League. In your example above, the teams from Tier 1 would only play other teams in Tier 1; teams in Tier 2 would only play Tier 2, etc.

Of course, you have me on ignore, so you will probably never see this...
[/quote]

its ok, youre only the 5th most ignored person on the board...

[MichaelWeston]

[quote name='GoBengals' timestamp='1294195931' post='958245']
its ok, youre only the 5th most ignored person on the board...
[/quote]

Who is 1-4! So excited!

[AmishBengalFan]

Updating for the near-end-of-2011 standings

Tier 1
13-0 - Green Bay (10) - Needs 1 win to clinch Tier Championship
10-3 - New England (1) - safe
10-3 - Pittsburgh (3) - safe
10-3 - Baltimore (4) - safe
10-3 - New Orleans (5) - safe
6-7 ? San Diego (14) - needs to stay ahead of PHI to remain
5-8 ? Philadelphia (9) - wins tiebreak vs SDC, but 1 game back with 3 to play
0-13 v Indianapolis (8) - Relegated

Tier 2
8-5 ? Atlanta (2) - safe, need 2 wins to promote
8-5 ? NY Jets (6) - safe, need 2 wins to promote
7-6 ? Chicago (7) - safe
7-6 ? NY Giants (11) - safe
7-6 ? Dallas (21) - needs 1 win or 1 TBB loss to remain
7-6 ? Tennessee (23) - needs 1 win or 1 TBB loss to remain
4-9 ? Tampa Bay (13) - cannot promote
2-11 v Minnesota (20) - Relegated

Tier 3
8-5 - Denver (30) - safe, need 2 wins to promote
7-6 - Oakland (16) - safe, need 2 wins to promote
6-7 ? Seattle (18)
6-7 ? Arizona (27)
5-8 ? Kansas City (12)
4-9 ? Jacksonville (15) - cannot promote
4-9 ? Miami (17) - cannot promote
4-9 ? Carolina (32) - cannot promote

Tier 4
10-3 ? Houston (22) - safe, need 1 win or DET loss to promote
10-3 ? San Francisco (24) - safe, need 1 win or DET loss to promote
8-5 ? Detroit (26)
7-6 - Cincinnati (29) - cannot promote
5-8 - Buffalo (31) - cannot promote, need 1 win or STL loss to ensure not finishing dead last
4-9 - Washington (25) - cannot promote, need 2 wins or STL losses to ensure not finishing dead last
4-9 - Cleveland (28) - cannot promote, need 2 wins or STL losses to ensure not finishing dead last
2-11 - St Louis (19) - cannot promote, wins tiebreak vs BUF WAS or CLE if they can catch them


^ = Will promote next year
- = Will remain next year
v = Will relegate next year
(#) = 2010 final ranking, used for tiebreaker in 2011 (lower is better)

[Rumble In the Jungle]

[quote name='MichaelWeston' timestamp='1294196492' post='958261']


Who is 1-4! So excited!
[/quote]

I think I'm the only one that doesn't have you on ignore, that's why no one has answered you

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='Rumble In the Jungle' timestamp='1323839731' post='1074899']
I think I'm the only one that doesn't have you on ignore, that's why no one has answered you
[/quote]


I would have given you a +1 if you hadn't put the ninja.

[Vol_Bengal]

[quote name='MichaelWeston' timestamp='1294192436' post='958204']
You know where this would be really cool? College football.
[/quote]

This.

[MichaelWeston]

[quote name='Rumble In the Jungle' timestamp='1323839731' post='1074899']
I think I'm the only one that doesn't have you on ignore, that's why no one has answered you
[/quote]

did you just reply to a 11 month old post?

[cwing]

Cool thread and a ton of homework done on this one but is not likely to be popular on this site as it shows long term results.

[sois]

[quote name='Vol_Bengal' timestamp='1323868877' post='1074932']

This.
[/quote]

I have this going in my NCAA Dynasty, it's a blast!

[Arkansas Bengal]

[quote name='GoBengals' timestamp='1294195931' post='958245']
its ok, youre only the 5th most ignored person on the board...
[/quote]

I'm the 5th most ignored on the board? Well then I guess there's no use posting here anymore...I'll become a lurker like 90% of the other members or go somewhere else.

[MichaelWeston]

[quote name='sois' timestamp='1323875189' post='1074968']

I have this going in my NCAA Dynasty, it's a blast!
[/quote]

Sweet, tell me more about how you are doing it.

[sois]

I used all 11 conferences, left the Independents alone, put all the elite teams in the ACC and went down alphabetically to the WAC
Big 12, CUSA and Pac 12 have 12 teams. Everyone else has 10.
I promote champs to the higher leagues and demote losers. It's awesome watching the parity. The top conference is a blast to see. Everyone fumbling around at 5-5 and stuff.

[AmishBengalFan]

I'll work on it, but I'll post it in a different forum.

[AmishBengalFan]

[url="http://forum.go-bengals.com/index.php?showtopic=62997"]http://forum.go-bengals.com/index.php?showtopic=62997[/url]

[MichaelWeston]

[quote name='sois' timestamp='1323888041' post='1075022']
I used all 11 conferences, left the Independents alone, put all the elite teams in the ACC and went down alphabetically to the WAC
Big 12, CUSA and Pac 12 have 12 teams. Everyone else has 10.
I promote champs to the higher leagues and demote losers. It's awesome watching the parity. The top conference is a blast to see. Everyone fumbling around at 5-5 and stuff.
[/quote]

As a fun thing to do (because I am a giant nerd) I realigned all the conferences based on location and parity. That would be an interesting way to do it as well. Makes me want to get a PS3 and then buy the game. I also like to go outside.

[AmishBengalFan]

Just re-found this thread!

Here's how the 2011 final standings would've worked out:

Tier 1
p15-1 - Green Bay (10) - Tier 1 Champion
p13-3 - New England (1)
p13-3 - New Orleans (5)
p12-4 - Pittsburgh (3)
p12-4 - Baltimore (4)
8-8 - Philadelphia (9)
8-8 v San Diego (14) - Relegated
2-14 v Indianapolis (8) - Relegated

Tier 2
p10-6 ^ Atlanta (2) - Tier 2 Champion, promoted
p9-7 ^ NY Giants (11) - promoted
9-7 - Tennessee (23)
8-8 - NY Jets (6)
8-8 - Chicago (7)
8-8 - Dallas (21)
4-12 v Tampa Bay (13) - Relegated
3-13 v Minnesota (20) - Relegated

Tier 3
p8-8 ^ Denver (30) - Tier 3 Champion, promoted
8-8 ^ Oakland (16) - promoted
8-8 - Arizona (27)
7-9 - Seattle (18)
7-9 - Kansas City (12)
6-10 - Miami (17)
6-10 v Carolina (32) - relegated
5-11 v Jacksonville (15) - relegated

Tier 4
p13-3 ^ San Francisco (24) - Tier 4 Champion, promoted
p10-6 ^ Houston (22) - promoted
p10-6 - Detroit (26)
p9-7 - Cincinnati (29)
6-10 - Buffalo (31)
5-11 - Washington (25)
4-12 - Cleveland (28)
2-14 - St Louis (19) - dead last

^ = Will promote next year
- = Will remain next year
v = Will relegate next year
(#) = 2010 final ranking, used for tiebreaker in 2011 (lower is better)
p = was a playoff team (playoff teams win tiebreaks over non-playoff teams, then 2010 rankings)

Notes:
Giants take 2nd place in Tier 2 over Tennessee (and promote) due to them making the playoffs
Denver wins Tier 3 championship over Oakland and Arizona due to them making the playoffs
Houston promotes out of Tier 4 over Detroit due to having a better 2010 finish (both were 10-6 and made the playoffs. Houston was #22, Detroit was #26)

The 2011 overall rankings (used for 2012 tiebreakers) would be:
1 p15-1 Green Bay (10)
2 p13-3 New England (1)
3 p13-3 New Orleans (5)
4 p13-3 San Francisco (24)
5 p12-4 Pittsburgh (3)
6 p12-4 Baltimore (4)
7 p10-6 Atlanta (2)
8 p10-6 Houston (22)
9 p10-6 Detroit (26)
10 p9-7 NY Giants (11)
11 p9-7 Cincinnati (29)
12 9-7 Tennessee (23)
13 p8-8 Denver (30)
14 8-8 NY Jets (6)
15 8-8 Chicago (7)
16 8-8 Philadelphia (9)
17 8-8 San Diego (14)
18 8-8 Oakland (16)
19 8-8 Dallas (21)
20 8-8 Arizona (27)
21 7-9 Seattle (18)
22 7-9 Kansas City (12)
23 6-10 Miami (17)
24 6-10 Buffalo (31)
25 6-10 Carolina (32)
26 5-11 Jacksonville (15)
27 5-11 Washington (25)
28 4-12 Tampa Bay (13)
29 4-12 Cleveland (28)
30 3-13 Minnesota (20)
31 2-14 Indianapolis (8)
32 2-14 St Louis (19)

[sois]

Boo still Tier 4.