oldschooler Posted May 4, 2011 Report Share Posted May 4, 2011 [b]The Reds are not simply enduring a slump. [/b] This isn't a bad week. It's not a bad stretch. It's more than that. It's been almost four weeks of pretty bad, pretty uninspiring baseball. They're 9-15 in their last 24. They've lost nine of the last 12 at home. But beyond those gory numbers is how they've looked, and how they've lost. The Reds, all too often, aren't even competitive. They really haven't been in these last four games. They trailed 7-1 Friday, 9-3 on Sunday, and 9-1 last night. Sure, they made the score closer, and even threatened late in two of those games, but most of those contests saw the Reds look completely outclassed by their opponent. Even Saturday night's win, a game that saw the Reds battle back from down 3-0 in the eighth, saw the Reds play rather unremarkable baseball most of the night. This pattern won't work, not the one where the Reds fall behind by a bunch of runs then try to put together last-ditch comebacks, not the one where the Reds play games at home against teams they should beat, and lose, not the one where we dismiss the funk the Reds are in simply because certain guys or missing, and most definitely not the one where we point to last season to calm the concerns coming to the forefront this year. Yes, reinforcements are coming. Johnny Cueto will be back this weekend, and Johnny Cueto might be better than any other option in the rotation right now, but he's Johnny Cueto getting the ball every fifth day does little to ease worries that the other four pitchers can only be expected to give the Reds the unexpected. And forgive me if I'm not treating Homer Bailey as the savior quite yet. When Homer Bailey has one half season of injury-free sustained success in the Major Leagues, I'll pin all my hopes on him. He hasn't, so I won't. And right, Scott Rolen will play for these guys again one day. If a guy who Dusty Baker has to constantly consider not playing is the magic elixir for this team, the Reds are in trouble. Now right about now is where you get set to fire off the email reminding me that last year's Reds team went 14-15 to open up the year, and that this is mostly the same bunch that went 91-71 a year ago. If clinging to last season's magic is all we have, the Reds are in even bigger trouble. Look, I loved last year's team. Always will. But the good vibes from 2010, and even the won/loss and individual statistical totals only go so far. That these guys were mediocre during the first month of 2010 tells me nothing about how the final five months of 2011 will play out. Last year's Reds turned it on when Jonny Gomes got hot in May. Right now, Jonny Gomes is eight for his last 56 (.143) and is hitting a robust .182. Last year's Reds got a magical first half from Scott Rolen. Scott Rolen is not playing right now. And I don't know that the Scott Rolen from April - June of '10 is walking through that door, folks. Last year's Reds waited patiently for Bruce and Stubbs to turn it on late, and maybe they will this season. But the issues those guys had in the first 100 or so games was offset by the production from Rolen and Gomes. We acknowledged that Gomes and Rolen were likely to regress this season, which was gonna be ok because Bruce and Stubbs were supposed to take major steps forward this year. Maybe that happens, but can the Reds afford for it to happen in August again? Maybe as frustrating as anything is that the Reds are so far wasting unreal seasons from Votto and Phillips. What happens when and if either or both go into a funk? The Reds of 2010 got exponentially better starting pitching during their May/June/July push than what the Reds of 2011 are getting right now. The starters' ERA is sitting at 5.56. In 2010 the ERA of Reds' starters was 4.05 Maybe Cueto and Bailey will help bring this year's number down, but those guys can't pitch every day. And if we're hanging our collective hats on both Homer Bailey and what happened last year, I'll point out that among the starters who made at least 12 starts for the Reds in 2010, Homer had the second-worst ERA. And last year's team won the division by playing well at home (49-32) and especially by destroying bad teams. They went 71-39 against teams that finished below .500. This year, they're just 12-11 against teams that right now have losing records. The schedule to this point has been relatively easy and will remain that way until next weekend. Here's what the Reds have in front of them from May13th until the All-Star Break... Six games with the Cardinals, who are 17-13 Six games with the Indians, who are 20-8 Four at Philadelphia, who's 19-9 Three at Atlanta, who's 15-15 but is a playoff team from a year ago Four at San Francisco, just 14-15 but reigning World Champs Three with the Yankees, who are 17-10 Three at Tampa Bay, who is 17-13 Yes, there's series mixed in against teams like the Cubs, Pirates, and Orioles, but you get the point....the schedule is about to get tougher. If we're using last year to make us feel good about this one, isn't it fair to worry about how the Reds will do against better teams since the 2010 squad fared poorly against them? And since we keep referring to last year, can I point out that the Reds are 27-31 in their last 58 games, not including playoffs? Am I trying to convince you that these guys are screwed? Of course not. They're in a division where four other teams continue to play poorly and no one seems worried that the Cardinals will run away and hide. There's options in the rotation and you can't help but think that the pitching will at some point improve. They have one of the best two hitters in baseball, good defensive players all over the field, a second baseman who looks determined to be the best in the game, and players at least capable of putting together some sustained hot streaks. There's a ton of baseball to be played, and while there are some very legit concerns, it wouldn't be stunning if these guys went out an won something like 14 of 20 and leapfrogged St. Louis. 2010 is over. It was great, we'll always have it, and maybe year's from now we'll look back on last season as the beginning of something big. I hope so, but it's over. Remember the 2006 Bengals? This year's Reds, so far, remind me of them. They entered the year with big hopes coming off and 11-5 2005 and there was almost this sense of inevitability with that team, that since they were so good yet so young the year before a championship in the very future could almost be counted on. Like this year's Reds, the '06 Bengals started big, winning their first three and looking like that season was pretty much a continuation of what took place the year before. And I think that fed into the sense that they pretty much had to just show up on Sundays and watch the other teams wilt. But it didn't happen. They got hammered by New England, gave away a game against the Bucs, got Michael Vicked by the Falcons, saw Carson Palmer lose a game by himself against Baltimore, and of course collapsed at the end of the season, losing the final three games when one win would've sent them to the postseason.... And as all that happened, we kept waiting for the 2005 Bengals to show up. We kept waiting for the magic of the previous season to return and by the time we realized that it wasn't, Santonio Holmes was streaking down the sideline and emphatically ending the season for the Bengals. 2005 never morphed into a more successful 2006. Now I know I'm getting a little ahead of myself. We aren't yet a fourth of the way through the baseball season, and this Reds team seems to have a resiliency that Bengals team never had. They have experiences of last season to draw on, namely how they did bounce back time and again after seemingly soul-crushing losses. But to simply use the success of last year's Reds as a reason to not be concerned about the issues facing this year's Reds means ignoring some major issues. I'm not able to do that. Hopefully the Reds aren't either. Read more: [url="http://www.espn1530.com/pages/mo.html#ixzz1LOCsqkoq"]http://www.espn1530.com/pages/mo.html#ixzz1LOCsqkoq[/url] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bengals1181 Posted May 4, 2011 Report Share Posted May 4, 2011 nice to see it only took 29 games for Lance to jump ship. Not that I'm surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldschooler Posted May 4, 2011 Author Report Share Posted May 4, 2011 [quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1304516491' post='990776'] nice to see it only took 29 games for Lance to jump ship. Not that I'm surprised. [/quote] It was Mo Egger. But your point still stands. But he has a point. They have been playing some pretty bad baseball. And aren't living up to the expectations that last year gave us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|Bunghole| Posted May 4, 2011 Report Share Posted May 4, 2011 I totally agree with him. The Reds are worrying me and I (along with most Reds fans) expected them to be in a better position than they are in right now. Hopefully they will turn it around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDawgBengal Posted May 6, 2011 Report Share Posted May 6, 2011 No need to jump ship. The Reds were right around .500 this time last year. When you factor in Bailey, Cueto, and Lewis all missed the first month, this team is in a good place. Once everyone gets back and healthy, things should get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBandJoeyV Posted May 8, 2011 Report Share Posted May 8, 2011 they haven't played well and are 2 games over .500. Wait till they catch fire and blow the division out of the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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