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Assembling the 2012 Reds - Article and Discussion


Jason

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[quote][size="5"][b]The Morning Line, 8/4 [/b][/size]

Link: http://cincinnati.com/blogs/daugherty/2011/08/04/the-morning-line-84/ (Click for the entire article, some stuff has been removed.)

It’s time to play who should stay and who should go. To quote The Clash: “If I stay there will be trouble. If I go, there will be double.” It’s the MLB version of talking about next year’s football draft by Thanksgiving. We’re familiar with that around here. Given The Club can’t win in Houston, it’s safe to assume it’s not about to embark on the mega-game winning streak it needs to become competitive again. No matter what the manager says. So let’s assemble next year’s team.

[b]Pay Brandon Phillips.[/b] Pick up his $12m option. He’s making $11.25 this year, so it’s not a stretch. Philly’s Chase Utley is making $15m this year, for the 3rd year in a row. Phillips is better all around now than Utley.

[b]Shower CoCo with lovely parting gifts.[/b] The 12M they pay Phillips can be the 12M (minus a 1M buyout) they won’t be paying Cordero. He has been a good closer and a positive presence in the clubhouse with the young Latin pitchers. But the Reds can’t afford him.

Say goodbye to R. Hernandez, F. Lewis and E. Renteria. That’s $6 M saved right there.

Keep M. Cairo, who will make $1m next year, can still play and is a very good example to the kiddies on how to grind.

[b]Consider dealing J. Votto.[/b] The Joey to Toronto for Bautista rumor was compelling, and made sense, even if Bautista will be 31. ... Play Y. Alonso now, every day, somewhere. Get some idea of what you’ve got. If he rips it up, moving Votto could make more sense.

[b]Get Mesoraco up here yesterday.[/b] Someone (Walt, The Big Man) needs to make it clear to D. Baker that he will be here next season, so he can start prepping for it now, instead of trying to win every night by running out Renteria, Hernandez etc. Don’t wait until Sept. 1.

[b]Stop screwing around with Chapman in the 8th inning.[/b] You didnt sign him for that. Either decide he’s a starter or a closer. Direct all your energies toward that, beginning today. TML thinks Chapman should be in the rotation next year. The Reds wasted this year with the guy.

[b]There are pitchers who’d look good in a trade for a bat:[/b] The enigmatic David Dewitt Bailey and lefty Travis Wood, mostly. Arroyo makes a fair amount of money, but a lot of it’s deferred through 2021. If the Reds deal him, the deferred cash has to be paid upfront. Otherwise, he’s a relative bargain ($7m in ’12, $6.5 in ’13) assuming he can return to the 14-win, 200-inning rock of the rotation he has been almost every year before this one.

* D. Willis is earning his modest pay. Has kept the Reds in every game he’s started, can hit like a position guy and is a glad presence in the clubhouse. Could be the #5 starter next year, if he’s back.[/quote]

What do you think?

My thoughts:

Yes, got to find a way to keep Brandon.
I used to think Massett could take over for Coco, but I'm not so sure now. If we let Coco go and move Chapman into the rotation, I'm not convinced we have a closer. But if Chapman can be the starter his arm would suggest he is certainly #1 material.
Personally, I'm not sure I want to trade Bailey. He's still young, and when he's on he's pretty damn good. Consistency will come with experience (I hope).
I like what I have seen from Willis, and am on board with re-signing him.
What to do with Volquez? When he's on, he's another ace. Could he become a closer?
Trading Votto for Bautista I might consider. Certainly it would have to be someone of that caliber.
I agree re Mesorocco. Get him up here now. I'd be quite willing to trade Hernandez and Arroyo of a bat prospect.
Is Zach Cozart the SS now, or does Janish get a second chance next year?
What about 3rd base? Rolen 1 more time? Frazier? Francisco?

Who would be your starting 5?
Chapman?
Cueto and Leake, obviously.
Bailey and Willis with Volquez to the pen, or possibly traded? Or do you let Willis go and stick with Volquez?

What do you think?
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Alonso just showed why he should be playing in the AL.

Also while Phillips is a better defender his offense isn't as good as Utley.
Ultey has a career batting average around 20 points higher, OBP around 60-70 points higher and OPS around 150 points higher.
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[quote name='CTA513' timestamp='1312570407' post='1011736']
Alonso just showed why he should be playing in the AL.

Also while Phillips is a better defender his offense isn't as good as Utley.
Ultey has a career batting average around 20 points higher, OBP around 60-70 points higher and OPS around 150 points higher.
[/quote]

I think a lot of that is because they keep moving Brandon. Put him in the 2 spot and leave him there and I think his offense is as good as almost any 2B in MLB.
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Let Bronson sit the rest of the year and bring up Volquez to see if he is got it back
Resign D-Train and extend Phillips (ill be pissed if they lose Phillips, he's my favorite player)
let Rollin go then bring up Francisco
once Cozart is healthy let him continue to play get the experience
Heisey and Bruce stay, Stubbs can stay but I wont be heart broken if they deal him
Bring up Mesorocco now
Yes decide what your going to do with Chapman and stick to it, he's too talented to be middle relief (i prefer him to close he has a 105 fastball that would be sweet for a closer but cant keep that kind of speed over 9 innings)


If we can afford to eat his contract I'd trade Bronson

A starting rotation of (in no order)
Cuto
Bailey
Volquez
D-Train
Leake

with Chapman as the closer, then go find someone to replace Masset

Infield
1B - Votto
2B - Phillips
SS - Cozart
3B - Fransciso
C - Mesorocco

OF
LF - Heisey
C - Stubbs (or other, Sappelt?)
RF - Bruce
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2012 Reds

1st-Alonso
2nd-Phillips
3rd-Votto
SS-Cozart
C-Mesorocco

LF-Free Agent or Trade
CF-Stubbs
RF-Bruce

Starting staff
1-Cueto
2-Volquez
3-Willis
4-Bailey
5-Leake

Bullpen
Closer-Chapmann
8th-Massett or free agent
7th-Ondrusek
Left handed specialist-Bray
Long man-Lecure

Bench
Heisey
Cairo
Hanagen
Lewis
Free Agent/ Trade

Let Rolen and Arroyo go. Sign or trade for either a middle of the order bat or lead off hitter to play LF.
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[quote name='BigDawgBengal' timestamp='1312572200' post='1011750']
2012 Reds

1st-Alonso
2nd-Phillips
[b]3rd-Votto[/b]
SS-Cozart
C-Mesorocco

LF-Free Agent or Trade
CF-Stubbs
RF-Bruce

Starting staff
1-Cueto
2-Volquez
3-Willis
4-Bailey
5-Leake

Bullpen
Closer-Chapmann
8th-Massett or free agent
7th-Ondrusek
Left handed specialist-Bray
Long man-Lecure

Bench
Heisey
Cairo
Hanagen
Lewis
Free Agent/ Trade

Let Rolen and Arroyo go. Sign or trade for either a middle of the order bat or lead off hitter to play LF.
[/quote]

I don't see it.
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[quote name='Jason' timestamp='1312575060' post='1011772']
I don't see it.
[/quote]
He played some 3rd in the minors. Give him an offseason to work on it and he can do it. Worked well for the Red Sox and Youk. They have to find a way to get their best bats in the lineup and this is one way to do it.
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[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1312605075' post='1011977']
didn't they start him at 3rd when he was first drafted? He also played some third at Miami.
[/quote]
[url="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=alonso001yon"]This[/url]doesn't ever show him playing third in the minors. I'm not sure about college. They have to find a way to keep he and Joey in the line-up together. I think Yonder will eventually be on par with Joey as far as skills with the bat.

We need to be careful not to piss Joey off either. If he really covets first base, don't mess with him at third. We need to do everything possible to keep him in Cincy.
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[quote name='JC' timestamp='1312606528' post='1011989']
[url="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=alonso001yon"]This[/url]doesn't ever show him playing third in the minors. [b]I'm not sure about college.[/b] They have to find a way to keep he and Joey in the line-up together. I think Yonder will eventually be on par with Joey as far as skills with the bat.

We need to be careful not to piss Joey off either. If he really covets first base, don't mess with him at third. We need to do everything possible to keep him in Cincy.
[/quote]

it wasn't his primary position, but I do remember reading it.
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