Week 10 "Expert Picks"

[Rumble In the Jungle]

[quote name='oldschooler' timestamp='1321047900' post='1060566']
From Joe Reedy ....


[u][b]PREDICTION[/b][/u]
The much-anticipated division run begins this week with one of the top games of the week. With as banged up as Pittsburgh’s defense is and the fact that the Steelers have not had a bye week yet, if there is a week to catch them, it might be now. With the momentum that the Bengals have and that it is at home, we’re going to say the winning streak extends to six. [b]Bengals 20-17[/b]



[b][url="http://cincinnati.com/blogs/bengals/2011/11/11/bengals-steelers-scouting-report-and-pick/"]http://cincinnati.co...eport-and-pick/[/url][/b]
[/quote]

We're fucked!

[img]http://www.lpstuff.com/shop/images/uploads/productimage-picture-yep-were-fucked-984.gif[/img]

[oldschooler]

[quote name='Rumble In the Jungle' timestamp='1321048029' post='1060568']

We're fucked!

[img]http://www.lpstuff.com/shop/images/uploads/productimage-picture-yep-were-fucked-984.gif[/img]


[/quote]



M'eh. They're 3-2 so far when he picked them.

3-0 when he picked against them.


By the way, he picked them to beat the Titans last week 23-17. (they won 24-17)

[oldschooler]

This dude picked the Titans to win last week by the exact same score ... [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39230/179/matchups-fresh-legs?pg=3"]http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39230/179/matchups-fresh-legs?pg=3[/url]




[b]Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati[/b]

Camp darling [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/2286/Antonio-Brown"]Antonio Brown[/url] failed to score or clear 70 yards in each of the first six games, but he's maximizing his opportunity at a larger role. Whereas Brown played 46.7% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps in the first month and a half, his snap rate has jumped to 59.8% in the last three games with [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/701/Hines-Ward"]Hines Ward[/url] (ankle/concussion) and [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/5885/Emmanuel-Sanders"]Emmanuel Sanders[/url] (personal/knee) in and out of the lineup. Brown leads the team in targets during that span with 35 -- the next closest Steeler is [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/5329/Mike-Wallace"]Mike Wallace[/url] with 27 -- and only Wallace, [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/3202/Vincent-Jackson"]Vincent Jackson[/url], and [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/4153/Calvin-Johnson"]Calvin Johnson[/url] have scored more fantasy points among wideouts over the last three weeks. Brown is the real deal, and his role will only expand with Sanders rehabbing from in-season knee surgery. ... While Brown has added a new dimension to Pittsburgh's offense, Wallace has a more favorable Week 10 matchup. Brown plays split end in most personnel groupings, lining up to the offense's left side. He'll square off with Bengals top cornerback [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/4204/Leon-Hall"]Leon Hall[/url] for the majority of this game, leaving 32-year-old [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/2298/Nate-Clements"]Nate Clements[/url] on Wallace. "60 Minutes" will have a clear upperhand when the two go mano-a-mano.

Ward is catch-less since Week 7 with five targets in the last three games. Injuries have plenty to do with it, but he's not a fantasy option. ... Since Week 3, the Bengals have held opposing tight ends to an average of four catches for 40 yards per game, with [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/1509/Dallas-Clark"]Dallas Clark[/url] scoring the lone touchdown in Week 6 garbage time. [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/3145/Heath-Miller"]Heath Miller[/url] is running more pass routes, but this is a tough matchup. ... With no teams on a bye, [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/1181/Ben-Roethlisberger"]Ben Roethlisberger[/url] is more of a high-end QB2 facing Cincinnati's top-ten pass defense. Bengals DC Mike Zimmer has had Roethlisberger's number recently, holding him to a combined 3:3 TD-to-INT ratio in their last five meetings on 97-of-161 passing (60.2%) for 1,112 yards (6.91 YPA). It's a pedestrian 222.4-yard average. ... With the Steelers leaning on a pass-heavy, spread-type offense that has been much discussed previously in this space, [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/4652/Rashard-Mendenhall"]Rashard Mendenhall[/url] has three straight games of 16 touches or fewer. While Mendenhall has continued to play well on decreased opportunities, he is an RB2 only at the moment. He's not getting the rock enough, and the Bengals rank first in the AFC in run defense.

The Steelers' 2011 run defense hasn't been the shutdown unit of seasons past, but it's creeping back up the NFL rankings since five-time Pro Bowl NT [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/645/Casey-Hampton"]Casey Hampton[/url] returned from a shoulder injury. Whereas Pittsburgh's defense allowed 272 yards and two touchdowns on 67 carries (4.06 YPC) without Hampton in Weeks 5-7, opposing rushers' stats have plummeted to 110 yards and one score on 39 carries (2.81 average) with Hampton in the lineup for Weeks 8-9. The Steelers now rank sixth in the league against the run. [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/3139/Cedric-Benson"]Cedric Benson[/url] resumed his normal workload coming off suspension last week, seeing 20 carries to change-of-pace back [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/5420/Bernard-Scott"]Bernard Scott[/url]'s six, but this will be a difficult matchup for Cincinnati's feature runner. Benson has averaged 3.13 yards a carry in his last three games, and his downhill, straight-ahead style has never given the Steelers much trouble. Benson has faced Pittsburgh six times in his career, all as a Bengal over the last three seasons. In those games, Benson has never topped 76 rushing yards, managing 258 combined on 79 carries (3.26 YPC). In other words, this is a good week to sit [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/3139/Cedric-Benson"]Cedric Benson[/url]. ... [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/5549/Jermaine-Gresham"]Jermaine Gresham[/url] will apparently return from his hamstring injury in Week 10, but he could easily get stuck as an in-line blocker against [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/665/James-Harrison"]James Harrison[/url]. Gresham is on pace for under 500 receiving yards.

With Pittsburgh's run defense stiffening and the pass defense playing at an elite level, the Bengals may struggle for ball movement on Sunday. [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/6493/Andy-Dalton"]Andy Dalton[/url] has proven a pro-ready game manager and Cincinnati is 6-2, but the stats should be kept in perspective. The Bengals' wins have come against teams with a combined 16-33 record (.326), and Dalton has faced just two top-14 pass defenses. The Steelers' defense is easily the best he'll see all season. ... I'll be interested to see whether [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/6438/A.J.-Green"]A.J. Green[/url] gets the [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/651/Ike-Taylor"]Ike Taylor[/url] treatment this week, and I wouldn't consider it a given because Green is a rookie and [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/4859/Jerome-Simpson"]Jerome Simpson[/url] isn't a slouch. Green's position in the base offense is flanker (RWR); Taylor is an RCB in the base defense. If the Steelers play sides, Green will avoid Taylor's coverage on the heavy majority of snaps. Green is the No. 7 fantasy receiver, so I'd want him in my fantasy lineup every week. ... If anything, the threat of Taylor staying at right corner makes Simpson more risky. I'd look elsewhere for my Week 10 WR3. ... [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/4319/William-Gay"]William Gay[/url] is the Steelers' weakest defensive back in coverage and plays in the slot when opponents go three-wide. Bengals slot man [url="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/NFL/4730/Andre-Caldwell"]Andre Caldwell[/url] is a worthwhile deep sleeper. Caldwell played 51-of-77 snaps in Week 9 (66.2%) and ranked second on the team with nine targets. With Gresham likely to block more often than not, Caldwell should be open and Dalton's go-to guy over the middle.

[b]Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Bengals 16[/b]




[url="http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39278/179/matchups-dezs-destiny?pg=3"]http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39278/179/matchups-dezs-destiny?pg=3[/url]

[oldschooler]

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Steelers 30, Bengals 17




[url="http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/Andy-Dalton-Cincinnati-Bengals-Cheat-Sheet-110811"]http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/Andy-Dalton-Cincinnati-Bengals-Cheat-Sheet-110811[/url]

[Rumble In the Jungle]

[quote name='oldschooler' timestamp='1321048503' post='1060571']



M'eh. They're 3-2 so far when he picked them.

3-0 when he picked against them.


By the way, he picked them to beat the Titans last week 23-17. (they won 24-17)
[/quote]

Damn, Reedy was real close on that score.

[JBandJoeyV]

Just for fun since I did this in the week 9 expert picks thread and it worked fairly well...


here are the afc games this week and who I think we should root to win (based on how it would effect us in the playoff race)

Oakland vs SD-SD (in this case its just for the draft pick sake, doesnt really change anything as far as our playoff odds)-Oakland obviously has already won
Tenn vs Carolina-Carolina
Houston at Tampa Bay- TB, but doesnt really matter as Houston will be a division winner (although it could effect seeding if we win the division)
Jacksonville vs Indy-who cares
Denver vs KC-Denver
Buffalo vs Dallas- Dallas
STL vs Cleveland-STL
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati-Duh
Baltimore vs Seattle-Seattle (and I think they might have a shot too if their QB can play decent)
New England vs NYJ-this is a tough one...NYJ, NE, and Buffalo are all 5-3. At this point, i just want one of those teams to start beating all the other teams in the division and knock them down a peg in the wildcard hunt. I think NE is a better team, so hopefully NE wins then takes care of the Bills later in the year

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='JBandJoeyV' timestamp='1321061795' post='1060674']
Just for fun since I did this in the week 9 expert picks thread and it worked fairly well...


here are the afc games this week and who I think we should root to win (based on how it would effect us in the playoff race)

Oakland vs SD-SD (in this case its just for the draft pick sake, doesnt really change anything as far as our playoff odds)-Oakland obviously has already won
Tenn vs Carolina-Carolina
Houston at Tampa Bay- TB, but doesnt really matter as Houston will be a division winner (although it could effect seeding if we win the division)
Jacksonville vs Indy-who cares
Denver vs KC-Denver
Buffalo vs Dallas- Dallas
STL vs Cleveland-STL
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati-Duh
Baltimore vs Seattle-Seattle (and I think they might have a shot too if their QB can play decent)
[b]New England vs NYJ-[/b]this is a tough one...NYJ, NE, and Buffalo are all 5-3. At this point, i just want one of those teams to start beating all the other teams in the division and knock them down a peg in the wildcard hunt. I think NE is a better team, so hopefully NE wins then takes care of the Bills later in the year
[/quote]

I'm rooting for New England in that game. If we should happen to face one of them in the playoffs, I'd rather take my chances with our defense against the Pats offense than our offense against the Jets defense.

[JBandJoeyV]

If we could win this week, and seattle beat baltimore we would be in great position.

[oldschooler]

From Paul Daugherty ...




[b]THE MAN SAYS THE MEN WON’T WIN [/b]which should please every Men fan in the universe. [b]My picks are often wr–, wr–, wr–, not entirely correct. [/b]Seeing a D. LeBeau defense for the first time is like navigating the LA freeways (or, you know, the streets of our own West Side) with only a learner’s permit. Though [b]it all changes if the X-Man T. Polamalu is out or noticeably limited [/b]with those bad ribs. He hasnt practiced this week.

I think the Red and Ced Show starring Adriel Jeremiah Green will do some damage, just not enough. The Stillers still have more and better veteran players, who understand they can’t really afford to lose another division game, at least not right now. [b]A few weeks back, I doubted their mettle. [/b]They were 2-2 and had just lost at Houston. B. Roethlisberger was getting pounded, the O-line was in tatters. I picked Tennessee to come to Heinz Field and win. The Stillers won, 38-17, the first of four straight.

[b]They just know what they’re doing, yeah?[/b]

I see M. Wallace and/or A. Brown getting behind the Bengals secondary once or twice. I see LeBeau blitzing early, just to see how Dalton reacts. Another close game, only this time, The Men arent playing Boys.

This, from ESPN’s J. Clayton:

[i]According to ESPN Stats & Information, rookie quarterbacks over the past four seasons are completing only 48.4 percent of their passes for 4.6 yards an attempt when the Steelers rush four or fewer defenders. During that span, the Steelers have intercepted eight passes from rookies and sacked quarterbacks on 10.9 percent of their drop backs.[/i]

All of which means Cincinnati will win.

[b][i]Steelers, 27-17.[/i][/b]





[i]http://cincinnati.com/blogs/daugherty/2011/11/11/the-morning-line-1111/?odyssey=mod|mostview[/i]

[Oldcat]

[quote name='oldschooler' timestamp='1321103892' post='1060743']
From Paul Daugherty ...




[b]THE MAN SAYS THE MEN WON’T WIN [/b]which should please every Men fan in the universe. [b]My picks are often wr–, wr–, wr–, not entirely correct. [/b]Seeing a D. LeBeau defense for the first time is like navigating the LA freeways (or, you know, the streets of our own West Side) with only a learner’s permit. Though [b]it all changes if the X-Man T. Polamalu is out or noticeably limited [/b]with those bad ribs. He hasnt practiced this week.

I think the Red and Ced Show starring Adriel Jeremiah Green will do some damage, just not enough. The Stillers still have more and better veteran players, who understand they can’t really afford to lose another division game, at least not right now. [b]A few weeks back, I doubted their mettle. [/b]They were 2-2 and had just lost at Houston. B. Roethlisberger was getting pounded, the O-line was in tatters. I picked Tennessee to come to Heinz Field and win. The Stillers won, 38-17, the first of four straight.

[b]They just know what they’re doing, yeah?[/b]

I see M. Wallace and/or A. Brown getting behind the Bengals secondary once or twice. I see LeBeau blitzing early, just to see how Dalton reacts. Another close game, only this time, The Men arent playing Boys.

This, from ESPN’s J. Clayton:

[i]According to ESPN Stats & Information, rookie quarterbacks over the past four seasons are completing only 48.4 percent of their passes for 4.6 yards an attempt when the Steelers rush four or fewer defenders. During that span, the Steelers have intercepted eight passes from rookies and sacked quarterbacks on 10.9 percent of their drop backs.[/i]

All of which means Cincinnati will win.

[b][i]Steelers, 27-17.[/i][/b]





[i][url="http://cincinnati.com/blogs/daugherty/2011/11/11/the-morning-line-1111/?odyssey=mod|mostview"]http://cincinnati.co...ey=mod|mostview[/url][/i]
[/quote]

If Cincy is going to win, why do the Steelers have a higher score?

[|Lucid|]

[quote name='Oldcat' timestamp='1321114088' post='1060773']

If Cincy is going to win, why do the Steelers have a higher score?
[/quote]

Because he is picking them to lose.. It's the ultimate in "hedging". He picks them to lose, but says because he thinks they will lose, that means they will actually win.

[Cricket]

[quote name='Lucid' timestamp='1321114275' post='1060776']

Because he is picking them to lose.. It's the ultimate in "hedging". He picks them to lose, but says because he thinks they will lose, that means they will actually win.
[/quote]


Yeah. Similarly (kinda):

If I say Doc is NOT a dipshit...he's a dipshit.

If I say Doc IS a dipshit...he's a dipshit.



:no_ninja:

[|Lucid|]

[quote name='Cricket' timestamp='1321114560' post='1060777']


[b]Yeah. Similarly (kinda):[/b]

If I say Doc is NOT a dipshit...he's a dipshit.

If I say Doc IS a dipshit...he's a dipshit.



:no_ninja:
[/quote]

Except yours actually follows strong logical progression.

[mongo]

Pat Kirwan picks the Steelers. Says Ben doesn't lose two in a row. Says he's thrown 11tds and 2ints in games after a loss (over the last season and a half). What he doesn't mention is that all but one of these follow up games has been played at Pittsburgh, and against seriously shitty teams. This years Titans team is probably the best team they've face after a loss in the last couple years, and I don't think much of them. They've followed up losses with home games against Seattle and the Titans this year. Last year, they had home follow up games against Cleveland, Oakland, and Carolina... Their one road game after a loss was against us in 2010, and we sucked that year.... Last time the Steelers lost back to back games was against Chicago, then us in 2009.

I like Pat, but I think we're better than the crap they get to play at home after a loss.

[Bleeds Orange]

[quote name='mongo' timestamp='1321153113' post='1060854']
Last time the Steelers lost back to back games was against Chicago, then us in 2009.
[/quote]

Actually, they lost five straight in '09 after starting 6-2, to put them at 6-7.


[quote]Pat Kirwan picks the Steelers. Says Ben doesn't lose two in a row. [/quote]

Kirwan is right, he doesn't lose two in a row, unless you count the five straight losses late in the 2009 season, the four losses in the last five games of the 2007 season, or the 2-6 start to the 2006 season, which included 1-6 after a 1-0 start. So yes, I'd say it's pretty-much impossible for Jen to lose two in a row. It never has happened and it never will.

Stealers have gone 8-8 and 9-7 following their two most recent Super Bowl appearances, by the way.

[iwamas]

No Respect... I think it's ridiculous.... this is one the homepage of NFL.com


[b] [url="http://www.nfl.com/more/gamedaypickem?module=HP11_hot_topics"]ARE THEY FOR REAL?[/url][/b]
[color=#333333][size=3]
The 6-2 Bengals face their first real test Sunday vs. the Steelers. Can they keep pace? The 'NFL GameDay Morning' crew says no. What do you think?[/size][/color]
[color=#333333][size=3]
[/size][/color]
[color=#333333][size=3]
[/size][/color]
[color=#333333][size=3]
I think they are gonna surprise a lot of people, that's what i think[/size][/color]

[oldschooler]

[url="http://twitter.com/#!/LanceMcAlister"]LanceMcAlister[/url]Lance McAlister




Steelers living off name and reputation. Bengals will make their name and reputation today. 24-20.
[url="http://twitter.com/#!/LanceMcAlister/status/135721118320427008"]9 minutes ago[/url]

[Jeb]

[quote name='turningpoint' timestamp='1320958887' post='1060044']
I'm calling it now.

Seattle with an upset win out west, they match up well vs the ravens and are at home. Big physical corners vs slow WR's and a solid run D.

But it will be a fluke loss, and they'll drop 1 place in the power rankings.
[/quote]

Good call!

Now, ...how will they do against us?

I say we match up well too. Shut down the run and force them to throw it which should allow our Dline to get to Flacco.

[Cricket]

[quote name='Jeb' timestamp='1321370087' post='1062662']

Good call!

Now, ...how will they do against us?

I say we match up well too. Shut down the run and force them to throw it which should allow our Dline to get to Flacco.[/quote]

...and it would also allow for them to get to our defensive secondary, who have not proven to be all that good.

[Jeb]

[quote name='Cricket' timestamp='1321375907' post='1062689']
...and it would also allow for them to get to our defensive secondary, who have not proven to be all that good.
[/quote]

The formula for the Ratbirds is stuff the run and rattle Flacco with pressure and maybe sacks. We have a defense that is capable of delivering that formula.