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Who Will Make the Playoffs?


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The [color=#ffa500][b]Bengals[/b][/color], [color=#008000][b]Jets[/b][/color], [color=#add8e6][b]Titans[/b][/color], [b][color=#000080]Tebows[/color][/b], and [color=#a9a9a9][b]Raiders[/b][/color] are all 7-5 with four games to play. It appears that the Stealers, Patriots, Ravens, and Texans will all be in the playoffs, and all the other AFC teams are 5-7 or worse. That leaves two spots for those five teams to fight over, with either the [color=#000080][b]Tebows[/b][/color] or [color=#a9a9a9][b]Raiders[/b][/color] winning the West and the other joining the other three ([color=#ffa500][b]Bengals[/b][/color], [color=#008000][b]Jets[/b][/color], [color=#add8e6][b]Titans[/b][/color]) in the fight for the last wildcard spot.

Here are the remaining opponents for the five 7-5 teams. (Teams with asterisk play Monday night.) In Week 17, the [color=#008000][b]Jets[/b][/color], [color=#000080][b]Tebows[/b][/color], and [color=#a9a9a9][b]Raiders[/b][/color] all play teams with losing records, while the [color=#ffa500][b]Bengals[/b][/color] and [b][color=#add8e6]Titans[/color][/b] will be facing probable playoff teams. But the [color=#ffa500][b]Bengals'[/b][/color] and [color=#add8e6][b]Titans'[/b][/color] opponents may have little to play for in the final weekend IF their playoff seed is set.

[size=5][color=#ffa500][b]Bengals[/b][/color][/size]

HOUSTON 9-3
@ St Louis 2-10
ARIZONA 5-7
BALTIMORE 9-3


[size=5][color=#008000][b]Jets[/b][/color][/size]

KANSAS CITY 5-7
@ Philadelphia 4-8
NY GIANTS 6-6
@ Miami 4-8


[size=5][color=#add8e6][b]Titans[/b][/color][/size]

NEW ORLEANS 9-3
@ Indianapolis 0-12
JACKSONVILLE 3-8 *
@ Houston 9-3


[size=5][color=#000080][b]Tebows[/b][/color][/size]

CHICAGO 7-5
NEW ENGLAND 9-3
@ Buffalo 5-7
KANSAS CITY 5-7


[color=#a9a9a9][size=5][b]Raiders[/b][/size][/color]

@ Green Bay 12-0
DETROIT 7-5
@ Kansas City 5-7
SAN DIEGO 4-7 *
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Don't feel good about this. I'm glad we have a tiebreaker of Tenn. One loss basically takes them out of it, if we go 3-1. Just have to hope the Jets don't turn into a super team and drop a couple. Raiders have at least two losses on that schedule.
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[quote name='kennethmw' timestamp='1323040235' post='1071275']
Looks like everybody could lose at least one more.
[/quote]

True, and wouldn't it be a mess if all five finished with the same record?

One interesting thing I just noticed is that there are no remaining head-to-head games between any of these five teams.
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We pretty much have to win the next 3. Then depending on what the jets/titans do we might have to beat baltimore as well.

My prediction though

Bengals win the next 3 10-5 heading into week 17.
Jets go 2-1 in the next 3 with a loss to an NFC team and will be 9-6 heading into week 17.
Titans will go 2-1, losing to NO. They will be 9-6 heading into week 17.
Raiders will go 1-2 and will be 8-7 heading into week 17.
Broncos will go 1-2 and will be 8-7 heading into week 17. Even if they go 2-1 I dont think it will matter cause they will win the AFCW and if they dont they wont be a wildcard team anyways.

So IMO it will come down to us, jets and Titans. If all 3 finish 10-6, with us losing to an AFC team, Titans losing to an NFC team, and Jets losing to an NFC team who would win the 3 way tiebreaker?
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[quote name='JBandJoeyV' timestamp='1323040856' post='1071283']
We pretty much have to win the next 3. Then depending on what the jets/titans do we might have to beat baltimore as well.

My prediction though

Bengals win the next 3 10-5 heading into week 17.
Jets go 2-1 in the next 3 with a loss to an NFC team and will be 9-6 heading into week 17.
Titans will go 2-1, losing to NO. They will be 9-6 heading into week 17.
Raiders will go 1-2 and will be 8-7 heading into week 17.
Broncos will go 1-2 and will be 8-7 heading into week 17. Even if they go 2-1 I dont think it will matter cause they will win the AFCW and if they dont they wont be a wildcard team anyways.

So IMO it will come down to us, jets and Titans. If all 3 finish 10-6, with us losing to an AFC team, Titans losing to an NFC team, and Jets losing to an NFC team who would win the 3 way tiebreaker?
[/quote]


[b] Three or More Clubs[/b]

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)[list]
[*]Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants. [b]skip[/b]
[*]Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.) [b]skip[/b]
[*]Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. [b]We would be 7-5, Titans would be 8-4, and Jets would be 7-5. Titans would make the playoffs.[/b]
[*]Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
[*]Strength of victory.
[*]Strength of schedule.
[*]Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
[*]Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
[*]Best net points in conference games.
[*]Best net points in all games.
[*]Best net touchdowns in all games.
[*]Coin toss
[/list]
When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.
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[quote name='Jamie_B' timestamp='1323059346' post='1071381']
It would suck if it came down to the tiebreaker between us and the fighting tebows.
[/quote]

I think they'll get the division and oakland is fighting for the wildcard. Hopefully this team is in the mindset that they need to go 4-0. Going 3-1 leaves too many chances for others to own a tiebreaker
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[quote name='gatorclaws' timestamp='1323059888' post='1071384']

I think they'll get the division and oakland is fighting for the wildcard. Hopefully this team is in the mindset that they need to go 4-0. Going 3-1 leaves too many chances for others to own a tiebreaker
[/quote]
Naw,we already screwed up our chances
Maybe next year though
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[quote name='gatorclaws' timestamp='1323061021' post='1071388']
edit: Tony Dungy just said we still make it.... maybe you should let him know we won't
[/quote]


Lol, just watched that too.

At the halfway point I thought we would go 4-4 in the second half of the season and finish 10-6. The games I thought they would win were the clowns, Texans, Rams & Cardinals. I think it's going to take some more upgrades to take down the squealers and ratbirds. I still think they can win these next 3. There is a good chance that things will fall in place and we maintain the #6 seed. Really I think that is the best case scenario for this year and would give us the 3rd place finishers in the AFC East and South on next year's schedule.
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[quote name='Elflocko' timestamp='1323060965' post='1071387']

Isn't it past your bedtime?
[/quote]
NAWW

[quote name='gatorclaws' timestamp='1323061021' post='1071388']

i'm so glad you know the future

edit: Tony Dungy just said we still make it.... maybe you should let him know we won't
[/quote]
i will be sure to let him know
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This is basically how i figured it would go, so i am not worried, still think we will end up with 10 wins. Next week is huge though, we need to win that. There is always a chance that the ravens last game doesnt mean anything to them as well.

What I worry about is unless we start get really going soon, while it will be nice that we make the playoffs, it wont matter because we have yet to beat a team thats going to be in the playoffs, so I dont think we will go very far, although maybe if we beat the texans and they lose a couple more we will get to face them in the playoffs too!
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[size=6][b]Playoff gridlock[/b][/size]

By GEOFF HOBSON

Posted 10 hours ago


PITTSBURGH — The Bengals began their stretch run Sunday careening out of the first turn here at Heinz Field in a 35-7 loss to the Steelers that sticks out of this season like Ben Roethlisberger’s sore thumb.

With the AFC Wild Card picture now officially tighter than firewall security, the Bengals desperately need a win over a contender and here come the AFC South-leading Texans for next Sunday’s 1 p.m. game at Paul Brown Stadium.

The Bengals need to take breather from the AFC North leaders, where Cincinnati has come up short three times in the past three weeks by combined scores of 90-48 with a turnover differential of minus-five in two losses to the Steelers and one to the Ravens.

For the first time all season the Bengals didn’t go play-to-play and instead let the bad plays pile up into an avalanche; it was the first time in 24 years they allowed 28 points in a quarter as they fell behind 28-7 at the half.

It was sloppy with a season-high 10 penalties, it was ugly with the first three-sack game since the opener, and it was shocking after playing the Steelers close in a 24-17 loss just three weeks ago.

“We didn’t go into this game thinking that this would be the outcome,” said defensive lineman Frostee Rucker. “We put a lot of work into our craft, and we didn’t get the job done. There are no fingers to point at anyone but ourselves. We have to be better.”

The Bengals circled the wagons and found themselves tied for the final AFC Wild Card spot and the naysayers are back questioning their playoff worthiness.
“That’s the first game we were out of it,” rookie wide receiver A.J. Green said after participating in his first NFL rout. “If you look back at the season, we’ve been in every game. I feel like we were a 7-4 team and one game isn’t going to define our season.”
But it is going to impact it dramatically now that the Bengals are in a 7-5 gridlock with the Jets, Titans and Broncos. if the season ended Sunday, the Bengals would have the sixth seed.

“If we would have won this ballgame today, we would have controlled things better. We don’t control things as much now, but next week’s another week,” said head coach Marvin Lewis.

With four games left, defensive tackle Domata Peko says the magic number is 10 wins or plus to get that final Wild Card spot and outside linebacker Thomas Howard concurred.

“No doubt. If we want to get to where we want to go, we’re going to have to beat this team here,” Howard said. “It’s a tough division we play in. We love it. We love it. We just have to play better.”

The question is how will the AFC’s youngest team come out of this week after such a beating. Howard, one of the veterans, didn’t minimize what happened Sunday.

“It’s a tough loss, but there are more games to play,” Howard said. “But it’s a tough loss. I don’t want to take that away. It’s a tough loss. We didn’t put our best foot forward. They won the turnover battle and that’s always crucial. We’ll clean it up and get better.”

Quarterback Andy Dalton knows he can’t let not playing well against the Steelers and Ravens weigh on his mind even if someone named T.J. Yates is the next opponent, a much less heralded rookie QB taken in the fifth round.

“I think the biggest thing is that this game only counts as one,” said Dalton, pulled early in the fourth quarter to prevent more abuse from the marauding James Harrison after the last of his three sacks sent him limping.

“Yeah, they are a division opponent and all that kind of stuff, but in the big scheme of things it only counts as one. We can’t let this hurt us. We can’t let this affect the next four. That’s the big thing; we’ve got to go in and get ready. We’re going to play a really good team in Houston next week, and we’ve got to get ready to go.”

Dalton, so good most of his rookie season, has found the going tough against the Steelers and Ravens After his least productive effort of the year Sunday (11-for-24, 135 yards for one touchdown) he’s now 0-3 against Pittsburgh and Baltimore on 50-of-99 passing for 678 yards, four touchdowns, five interceptions and a passer rating of 65.1.

In the other nine games, he’s 179-of-288 for 1,966 yards with 13 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a rating of 87.2.

The only good thing about Sunday is Dalton came out of it upright with Lewis saying he’s fine.

But as Rucker said, there’s no pointing of fingers. There can’t be on a day the offense scored its fewest points, the defense gave up touchdown drives of 87 and 93 yards and special teams fumbled a kickoff, allowed a punt return for a touchdown, had a field goal blocked, and lost another on a delay of game penalty.

“It was bad. What can you say?” asked safety Chris Crocker. “We’ve got to tighten it up. You know we’re going to practice hard.”

Peko wasn’t happy with all the second-effort yards the Steelers running backs manufactured out of spinning away from tackles.

But…

“It wasn’t just the defense, it was the offense and special teams, too. We all have to play better,” Peko said. “We’re going to have to get healthy and we’ve got to get better because we’re running out of time. We’ve only got four games left and we have to win them all I think.

“No excuses. They played better than us."

Peko assured that the run would get fixed and Howard said the Bengals wouldn’t waste any time.

“We’ll be watching this game on the plane cleaning it up,” Howard said. “The players will be and then we’ll meet with the coaches on Monday to get ready for the Texans.”

They know roster longshot wide receiver Andrew Hawkins is going to be resilient now that he’s a special-teamer and he's down with how special teams played.

“It’s disappointing in a big game like this, but we’ll bounce back,” Hawkins said. “We have four games left in the season, and I think this team is good for it. Obviously we’re disappointed but we’re not hanging our heads. We’re going to go back tomorrow, look at the film and come out next week against Houston trying to fire on all cylinders.”

There was some grousing about penalties, but with the qualifier someone could have made a play to negate them. A huge 45-yard pass interference call on Crocker working on wide receiver Mike Wallace set up the second TD just five minutes after the first one on a ball that was well overthrown. Both Lewis and Crocker said it was an uncatchable ball.

“But if you make contact with the receiver,” Crocker said, “you’re putting it in the hands of the officials and you can’t do it.”

It was also clear that Hawkins was blocked in the back on wide receiver Antonio Brown’s punt return for a touchdown that made it 28-7 late in the first half. But linebacker Vincent Rey said he should have made the play as the wall formed down the right side.

The Bengals have made a season out of coming from behind to win after bad first halves. Now they have to come back from a bad first game in December.

“I think even though the score was what it was, I think we’re still up there and trying hard,“ Dalton said. “Things just didn’t work in our favor today, but the good thing is it is only one game.”





[url="http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Playoff-gridlock/e1060e3c-9bfe-462a-99e3-b4588aa9652f"]http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Playoff-gridlock/e1060e3c-9bfe-462a-99e3-b4588aa9652f[/url]
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I feel winning out can be achieved the more I think about it..

Houston - time to end that streak and make them realize they have yates starting for them at QB. Shut down their run game, they're toast.

St Louis & Arizona - Not looking past both these teams (Dallas did) but Marvin & Co will have the team focused and on their game during this last stretch.

Baltimore - If they keep rolling, they might end up just resting most of their starters. Depending on how the top of the AFC plays out with New England and Pittsburgh. It might come down to getting HFA before.
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[quote name='MrDingleDangle' timestamp='1323068468' post='1071396']
This is basically how i figured it would go, so i am not worried, still think we will end up with 10 wins. [/quote]

Same here, although I was secretly holding out hope that they'd win one against the Stealers. I'm not devastated that they didn't, though. The Stealers and Ravens losses were what I call "excusable" losses. My fear is that they drop one of the next three, which I would consider an "inexcusable" loss. Fortunately, the St Louis game is the one that's on the road, and not the Houston or Arizona game.

[quote name='MrDingleDangle' timestamp='1323068468' post='1071396']...although maybe if we beat the texans and they lose a couple more we will get to face them in the playoffs too!
[/quote]

It's starting to look like the Patriots and the AFC North winner will be the top two seeds, the AFC North second-place team will be the #5, and the AFC West winner the #4. That leaves the Texans as the #3 and, if the Bengals make it, they would be the #6. So a Bengals-Texans rematch in Houston would be a distinct possibility.
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Stating the obvious:

If the Bengals are to make the playoffs, it will only be as a Wild Card, and then only as the #6 seed. We are 2 games behind both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and both teams have clinched tiebreakers over us. (Pittsburgh's 2-0 sweep, plus Baltimore clinching a 4-win division record while we sit at 2-3, are the reasons why). Unless we make up THREE games in the next 4 weeks against BOTH of them, one of them will be the division champion. And unless we make up THREE games in the next 4 weeks against ONE of them, the other will be the #5 Wild Card seed. We seem destined to finish in 3rd place, and thus can get no better than the #6 seed.

So it's time to start watching the other wild card contenders:

Tennessee - We beat them head-to-head and currently have a better conference record (6-4 v 5-4)
NY Jets - We did not play them head-to-head, but have a 6-4 v 5-5 conference record lead
Oakland - Same as NY Jets
Denver - We lost to them head-to-head and trail 6-3 v 6-4 in conference record.

If Denver continues to ride the hot hand and takes the West, then it's us vs TEN, NYJ and OAK for the final wildcard spot. We control our own destiny, since by winning out we guarantee finishing with a better conference record (NYJ and OAK have 5 conference losses already, we only have 4), and if TEN keeps pace our h2h head victory pushes us over the top.

If Oakland gets past Denver and takes the West, pushing DEN into the mix, we could be in trouble. But to do so, DEN would have to lose a game along the way. If DEN goes 4-0, OAK cannot take the division from them. Both would finish 11-5 overall, 1-1 head-to-head, and 4-2 vs the AFC West. Common opponents would be DEN 10-4 v 9-5. If OAK takes the West, DEN would have to lose a game, thus giving us a better overall record (11-5 v 10-4) if we run the table.

So, as of right now, in spite of being in a 5-way tie at 7-5 in the AFC and seemingly locked-in to no better than the worst Wild Card spot, we absolutely control our own destiny.
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BTW - For those interested in such things, here's how the playoff seedings appear right now with 4 games to play:

AFC
#1 - New England (9-3)
#2 - Baltimore (9-3)
#3 - Houston (9-3)
#4 - Denver (7-5)
#5 - Pittsburgh (9-3)
#6 - Cincinnati (7-5)
XX - Tennessee, NY Jets, and Oakland (7-5)

Tiebreakers:
AFC North: Baltimore 1st over Pittsburgh based on 2-0 h2h sweep
AFC 1 Seed: New England and Houston over Baltimore based on superior conference record (7-2 v 6-2). New England over Houston based on superior Strength of Victory (.421 v .387)
AFC 2 Seed: Baltimore over Houston based on 1-0 h2h record
AFC 6 Seed: Cincinnati (6-4) over Tennessee (5-4), NY Jets (5-5), and Oakland (5-5) based on superior conference record

NFC
#1 - *Green Bay (12-0)
#2 - *San Francisco (10-2)
#3 - New Orleans (9-3)
#4 - Dallas (7-5)
#5 - Chicago (7-5)
#6 - Atlanta (7-5)
XX - Detroit (7-5)

*=Clinched division title

Tiebreakers:
NFC North - Chicago 2nd over Detroit based on superior conference record (6-3 v 5-5)
NFC 5 Seed - Chicago over Atlanta based on 1-0 h2h record
NFC 6 Seed - Atlanta over Detroit based on 1-0 h2h record

Wild Card Round:
Cincinnati at Houston
Pittsburgh at Denver
Atlanta at New Orleans
Chicago at Dallas

Divisional Round
CIN or PIT-DEN at New England
HOU or PIT-DEN at Baltimore
ATL or CHI-DAL at Green Bay
NOS or CHI-DAL at San Francisco
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