2012 NFL Mock Drafts

[bengaled]

[quote name='Orange 'n Black' timestamp='1325629543' post='1083911']
I think if we want a stud corner, we have to draft him in the first round. CB is about the only position I can think of where you really HAVE to pick them high to get a premier player. Who was the last shutdown corner picked after the first or second round?
[/quote]


oh, it happens. ike taylor was a 4th round pick and an excellent one. ladarius webb was a 3rd rounder and is turning into a helluva CB. that's just two guys within our division that we're all very familiar with. i'd take a clone of either of them and be tickled pink!

[JC]

I also don't think DeCastro is getting past Philly at 14 or 15 wherever they are. They have to keep Vick upright as much as they possibly can.

I think there is a great chance that Cordy Glenn is a Bengal unless we trade our pick at 17 up to get Trent and he doesn't fall to our second pick.

[eva4ben-gal]

[quote name='Cricket' timestamp='1325603299' post='1083694']


First: the 3rd round compensation pick would be for Jonathan Joseph...Ocho Cinco was traded.

Second: compensation picks cannot be traded.
[/quote]
Are we sure we will even get a comp pick? We lost 1 starter but we signed 3

[bengaled]

[quote name='JC' timestamp='1325656187' post='1084080']
I also don't think DeCastro is getting past Philly at 14 or 15 wherever they are. They have to keep Vick upright as much as they possibly can.

I think there is a great chance that Cordy Glenn is a Bengal unless we trade our pick at 17 up to get Trent and he doesn't fall to our second pick.
[/quote]


glenn is a bull and might in the long run make the better acquisition for us.... IF, and only if, the boling kid is truely the answer at LG. i see glenn as a true RG at the next level, whereas i think decastro will be a LG. i would love a chance at him (decastro), even if it delegates boling to a full time backup. that really isn't that unusual of a thing for a 4th round draft pick, when you think about it.

[oldschooler]

[b]17. [url="http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/team/cincinnati-bengals/67041"]Cincinnati Bengals[/url] (via Oakland): Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska:[/b] In hindsight, the [url="http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/team/oakland-raiders/67050"]Raiders[/url]’ midseason trade of their 2012 first-round pick for [url="http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/player/carson-palmer/140403"]Carson Palmer[/url] wasn’t exactly the best move in Silver and Black history. Palmer was an interception machine, and when the Raiders needed a win to make the playoffs, he couldn’t lead them to victory over the Chargers at home. Cincinnati, meanwhile, backs into the playoffs and gets the Oakland pick. The loss of [url="http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/player/leon-hall/469541"]Leon Hall[/url] to injury has crippled the Bengals. Look for them to bring on a corner who can play immediately. Dennard, who missed some of the early part of the season because of injury, can do just that.





[b]21. Cincinnati Bengals: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College:[/b] The 2011 winner of the Butkus Award, Kuechly recorded a school and ACC record 532 tackles in just three seasons up at Chestnut Hill. At 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, Kuechly is more than merely a tackle machine who cleaned up the mess from an awful B.C. front four. He has good speed, can rush the passer and can defend the pass. Cincinnati can go a variety of ways with its two first-round picks this year. They can’t go wrong with Kuechly.



http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/nfl-mock-draft-robert-griffin-kendall-wright-cleveland-browns-baylor-bears-010211

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='bengaled' timestamp='1325652929' post='1084065']


just a hunch, but i doubt at his current 310lbs you'd see the same dominating player you see in college, since he'd be going up against the NFL's biggest linemen (generally nose tackles). what i see that decastro does best is pull and his size and athleticism would seem to make him a perfect fit at LG. now i'm not saying he possibly couldn't man the RG position. but i doubt he'll ever be the kind of dominating player there that would equate to a 1st round investment.
[/quote]

his ability to pull and his quick feet is why I think he CAN make an immediate impact.

I know the lockout hurt Boling (around the league it was said the lockout hurt olinemen most) from a standpoint of getting stronger, but I think DeCastro is a tick stronger, and is certainly more talented (and that's no knock on Boling).

He probably could play LG. He's such a good puller from the right side already though, I'm not sure I'd want to mess with that.

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='bengaled' timestamp='1325661164' post='1084088']


glenn is a bull and might in the long run make the better acquisition for us.... IF, and only if, the boling kid is truely the answer at LG. i see glenn as a true RG at the next level, whereas i think decastro will be a LG. i would love a chance at him (decastro), even if it delegates boling to a full time backup. that really isn't that unusual of a thing for a 4th round draft pick, when you think about it.
[/quote]


I like DeCastro more, but agree that Glenn is the more likely pick and better fits the Bengals MO. They like versatility. He could play and/or backup possibly every spot on the line except center. He's also a bigger guard which they tend to have, as you alluded to earlier with DeCastro's size.


Also keep in mind that Boling has experience at tackle. So he could conceivably be a versatile backup as you suggest. Sort of a more talented Kooistra.

[Jason]

[quote name='oldschooler' timestamp='1325681269' post='1084103']
[b]17. [url="http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/team/cincinnati-bengals/67041"]Cincinnati Bengals[/url] (via Oakland): Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska:[/b] In hindsight, the [url="http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/team/oakland-raiders/67050"]Raiders[/url]’ midseason trade of their 2012 first-round pick for [url="http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/player/carson-palmer/140403"]Carson Palmer[/url] wasn’t exactly the best move in Silver and Black history. Palmer was an interception machine, and when the Raiders needed a win to make the playoffs, he couldn’t lead them to victory over the Chargers at home. Cincinnati, meanwhile, backs into the playoffs and gets the Oakland pick. The loss of [url="http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/player/leon-hall/469541"]Leon Hall[/url] to injury has crippled the Bengals. Look for them to bring on a corner who can play immediately. Dennard, who missed some of the early part of the season because of injury, can do just that.





[b]21. Cincinnati Bengals: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College:[/b] The 2011 winner of the Butkus Award, Kuechly recorded a school and ACC record 532 tackles in just three seasons up at Chestnut Hill. At 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, Kuechly is more than merely a tackle machine who cleaned up the mess from an awful B.C. front four. He has good speed, can rush the passer and can defend the pass. Cincinnati can go a variety of ways with its two first-round picks this year. They can’t go wrong with Kuechly.



[url="http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/nfl-mock-draft-robert-griffin-kendall-wright-cleveland-browns-baylor-bears-010211"]http://msn.foxsports...or-bears-010211[/url]
[/quote]

I'd be happier with Glenn at 17.

[Cricket]

[quote name='eva4ben-gal' timestamp='1325657924' post='1084082']
Are we sure we will even get a comp pick? We lost 1 starter but we signed 3
[/quote]


Good question. It's not the number of starters lost or signed, it's the number of "qualified" free agents lost and signed.

We did a good job for several years of signing fewer "qualified" guys than we lost, but it's difficult to continue to do that every year. I'm not sure where we stand this year. Sparky or anyone else know?


FWIW, here's an article regarding last year's compensatory picks:
[url="http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d81ef2e1e/article/nfl-distributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-23-clubs"]http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d81ef2e1e/article/nfl-distributes-compensatory-draft-picks-to-23-clubs[/url]

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='eva4ben-gal' timestamp='1325657924' post='1084082']
Are we sure we will even get a comp pick? We lost 1 starter but we signed 3
[/quote]


as I understand it, its more about the contracts they signed and playing time, etc.. The fact that Joseph made the pro bowl also factors in. Also, Clements was cut so he doesn't count.


We'll definitely get a comp pick for Joseph, and I'll be surprised if its not a 3rd rounder.

[Cricket]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1325684199' post='1084120']


as I understand it, its more about the contracts they signed and playing time, etc.. The fact that Joseph made the pro bowl also factors in. Also, Clements was cut so he doesn't count.


We'll definitely get a comp pick for Joseph, and I'll be surprised if its not a 3rd rounder.
[/quote]

The FIRST thing considered is the number of [b]qualifying[/b] free agents lost minus the number of qualifying free agents signed.

[b]If we signed more than we lost we will not get a comp pick for JJ[/b], regardless of the size of his contract, playing time, pro bowl, or any other awards.

If we signed the [b]same [/b]number as we lost there's a good chance we'll get a 7th rounder for him.

[Jason]

[quote name='Cricket' timestamp='1325685181' post='1084123']

The FIRST thing considered is the number of [b]qualifying[/b] free agents lost minus the number of qualifying free agents signed.

[b]If we signed more than we lost we will not get a comp pick for JJ[/b], regardless of the size of his contract, playing time, pro bowl, or any other awards.

If we signed the [b]same [/b]number as we lost there's a good chance we'll get a 7th rounder for him.
[/quote]

This.

Keep in mind we also lost Evan Mathis. Don't know how big his contract was, but I think he started for Philly.

[oldschooler]

[quote name='Cricket' timestamp='1325685181' post='1084123']

The FIRST thing considered is the number of [b]qualifying[/b] free agents lost minus the number of qualifying free agents signed.

[b]If we signed more than we lost we will not get a comp pick for JJ[/b], regardless of the size of his contract, playing time, pro bowl, or any other awards.

If we signed the [b]same [/b]number as we lost there's a good chance we'll get a 7th rounder for him.
[/quote]



I could be wrong, but I think losing a player like Joseph has to be cancelled out
by signing a player like Joseph. I mean, a team can't lose a Franchise type player
and have it cancelled out because they signed a fringe guy. Or a guy for 1 year.
Like we did with a lot of our signings.


I would be shocked if the Bengals didn't receive the highest comp pick awarded
for this upcoming draft.

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='oldschooler' timestamp='1325689001' post='1084135']



[b]I could be wrong, but I think losing a player like Joseph has to be cancelled out[/b]
[b]by signing a player like Joseph. I mean, a team can't lose a Franchise type player[/b]
[b]and have it cancelled out because they signed a fringe guy. Or a guy for 1 year.[/b]
[b]Like we did with a lot of our signings.[/b]


I would be shocked if the Bengals didn't receive the highest comp pick awarded
for this upcoming draft.
[/quote]


that's how I've understood it as well. We have to sign guys to sizeable contracts comparable to what we lost. Joseph had one of the top 2 or 3 free agent contracts in the league last year.

[SocalBengalEd]

[quote name='Jason' timestamp='1325683454' post='1084117']


I'd be happier with Glenn at 17.
[/quote]


I saw highlights/lowlights of Glenn on YouTube he seems to be wearing concrete boots ill pass on him. Reminds me of Stacy Andrews not good. Decastro is 10x the guard Glenn is.

[Cricket]

[quote name='oldschooler' timestamp='1325689001' post='1084135']



I could be wrong, but I think losing a player like Joseph has to be cancelled out
by signing a player like Joseph. I mean, a team can't lose a Franchise type player
and have it cancelled out because they signed a fringe guy. Or a guy for 1 year.
Like we did with a lot of our signings.


I would be shocked if the Bengals didn't receive the highest comp pick awarded
for this upcoming draft.
[/quote]


Well then, prepare to be shocked.


Besides Joseph and Mathis, who else did we lose?

Checking the transactions, I think the following are the UFA's we picked up: Scaife, Gradkowski, Howard, and Lawson.

[Jean-Gilles (UFA) was signed, but then terminated. Acquired thru trade: Jennings & Mays. Waiver claims: Hawkins, McGlynn, & Tate. Free Agents (unqualifying): Clements & Lee]

Scaife went on IR before the regular season started so probably doesn't qualify.

I'm not sure if Gradkowski's lack of playing time makes him "unqualified" or not.

Hopefully Gradkowski doesn't count, leaving us with an net gain/loss of zero...and likely a 7th round comp pick for JJ.

Hopefully there's another UFA that we lost (and I'm just not recalling who that is) and we end up with a net loss of qualifying free agents...and we end up getting a 3rd round comp pick for JJ...but I'm not holding my breath and I won't be shocked if we don't.

[Guys we lost that don't qualify: Odom (released), Palmer (traded), Ochocinco (traded), Shirley (waived), Cosby (waived), T.O. (unsigned).]

[SocalBengalEd]

#17. Decastro from Stanford.

#32. Kuechly from Boston College.

I doubt either will be there but u never know.

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='SocalBengalEd' timestamp='1325690974' post='1084156']
I saw highlights/lowlights of Glenn on YouTube he seems to be wearing concrete boots ill pass on him. Reminds me of Stacy Andrews not good. Decastro is 10x the guard Glenn is.
[/quote]


I agree Decastro is a better guard, but keep in mind Glenn is basically a guard (and at guard weight) playing at left tackle because he's their best lineman.

He's going to look slow as a LT, but you have to think of him as a guard.

[oldschooler]

[quote name='Cricket' timestamp='1325691085' post='1084157']


Well then, prepare to be shocked.


Besides Joseph and Mathis, who else did we lose?

Checking the transactions, I think the following are the UFA's we picked up: Scaife, Gradkowski, Howard, and Lawson.

[Jean-Gilles (UFA) was signed, but then terminated. Acquired thru trade: Jennings & Mays. Waiver claims: Hawkins, McGlynn, & Tate. Free Agents (unqualifying): Clements & Lee]

Scaife went on IR before the regular season started so probably doesn't qualify.

I'm not sure if Gradkowski's lack of playing time makes him "unqualified" or not.

Hopefully Gradkowski doesn't count, leaving us with an net gain/loss of zero...and likely a 7th round comp pick for JJ.

Hopefully there's another UFA that we lost (and I'm just not recalling who that is) and we end up with a net loss of qualifying free agents...and we end up getting a 3rd round comp pick for JJ...but I'm not holding my breath and I won't be shocked if we don't.

[Guys we lost that don't qualify: Odom (released), Palmer (traded), Ochocinco (traded), Shirley (waived), Cosby (waived), T.O. (unsigned).]
[/quote]


Well like I said, I don't think all of the signings we had combined cancels out losing Joseph.
It's not so much about how many you lose, but the quality of what you lost.

Joseph was one of the top FAs and made the Pro Bowl. I think that trumps signing
a bunch of guys to one year contracts.

But we shall see.

[Bengals1181]

[quote name='Cricket' timestamp='1325691085' post='1084157']


Well then, prepare to be shocked.


Besides Joseph and Mathis, who else did we lose?

Checking the transactions, I think the following are the UFA's we picked up: Scaife, Gradkowski, Howard, and Lawson.

[Jean-Gilles (UFA) was signed, but then terminated. Acquired thru trade: Jennings & Mays. Waiver claims: Hawkins, McGlynn, & Tate. Free Agents (unqualifying): Clements & Lee]

Scaife went on IR before the regular season started so probably doesn't qualify.

I'm not sure if Gradkowski's lack of playing time makes him "unqualified" or not.

Hopefully Gradkowski doesn't count, leaving us with an net gain/loss of zero...and likely a 7th round comp pick for JJ.

Hopefully there's another UFA that we lost (and I'm just not recalling who that is) and we end up with a net loss of qualifying free agents...and we end up getting a 3rd round comp pick for JJ...but I'm not holding my breath and I won't be shocked if we don't.

[Guys we lost that don't qualify: Odom (released), Palmer (traded), Ochocinco (traded), Shirley (waived), Cosby (waived), T.O. (unsigned).]
[/quote]


I doubt Scaife and Gradkowski will effect it much.

Reggie Kelly is one you're forgetting. There's Ndukwe too, but he'd cancel out scaife or grad likely. He signed after the season started, so he may not technically count, dunno.

TO signing somewhere would have really helped.

[Bengals1181]

[quote]In addition to the 32 picks in each round, there are a total of 32 picks awarded at the ends of Rounds 3 through 7. These picks, known as "compensatory picks," are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency. Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. [b]Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player's salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor.[/b] So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.
If fewer than 32 such picks are awarded, the remaining picks are awarded in the order in which teams would pick in a hypothetical eighth round of the draft (These are known as "supplemental compensatory selections").
Compensatory picks are awarded each year at the NFL annual meeting which is held at the end of March; typically, about three or four weeks before the draft.[/quote]

[url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_Draft#Compensatory_picks"]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_Draft#Compensatory_picks[/url]

[Cricket]

[quote name='oldschooler' timestamp='1325691456' post='1084161']


Well like I said, I don't think all of the signings we had combined cancels out losing Joseph.
It's not so much about how many you lose, but the quality of what you lost.

Joseph was one of the top FAs and made the Pro Bowl. I think that trumps signing
a bunch of guys to one year contracts.

But we shall see.
[/quote]

Based upon everything I've seen, first and foremost is the NET LOSS of qualifying free agents.

Below is a link to a post from the guy that has always done a great job of predicting compensation picks...and this link gives a pretty good explanation.

Please note the following quote from that link:

"No team has been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than it lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value."

[url="http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=208336"]http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=208336[/url]

[Cricket]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1325691842' post='1084164']

[url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_Draft#Compensatory_picks"]http://en.wikipedia....pensatory_picks[/url]
[/quote]

You should have highlighted the part that says:

..."compensatory picks," are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency .......

[Bengals1181]

guys lost that I think are eligible: Joseph, Kelly, Ndukwe, Mathis.

Clint Stitser may be another, but was cut by Washington before the season started.

Guys added: Scaife, Lee, Howard, Lawson and Gradkowski.


If they are eligible, ndukwe and lee cancel each other out. As cricket mentioned, Scaife may not even be eligible. If he is, he'd cancel out Stitser who would also have to be eligble I believe.

Kelly would cancel out Lawson probably, with Howard and Mathis probably cancelling each other out.

That leaves Joseph and Gradkowski.


I've got to think, knowing they were starting a rookie QB and possibly rebuilding, I can't imagine the front office brought in more guys than they lost. Say what you will about the way they run the team, they've always been very shrewd about picking up 3rd round comp picks. I think the Bengals lead the league in gaining them since they were instituted.

[quote name='Cricket' timestamp='1325692157' post='1084167']

You should have highlighted the part that says:

..."compensatory picks," are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency .......
[/quote]


we had already established that, I didn't see the point.

[oldschooler]

[quote name='Cricket' timestamp='1325692054' post='1084166']

Based upon everything I've seen, first and foremost is the NET LOSS of qualifying free agents.

Below is a link to a post from the guy that has always done a great job of predicting compensation picks...and this link gives a pretty good explanation.

Please note the following quote from that link:

"No team has been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than it lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value."

[url="http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=208336"]http://www.footballs...ic.php?t=208336[/url]
[/quote]


The keyword is "qualifying"

From your own link ...

[size=4][color=#000000][font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, [b]I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded seems to be the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors[/b]. It should be noted that the contract values used in the equation seemingly do not include things such as workout bonuses and incentives. (Also, keep in mind that the contract figures reported in the media often are incorrect.) And the playing time used in the equation seemingly is the percentage of offensive or defensive snaps played. [/font][/color][/size]

[b][size=4][color=#000000][font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is this – for every player signed, [size=5]cancel out a lost player of similar value[/size]. For example, consider a team that loses one qualifying player whose value would bring a third-round comp pick and another qualifying player whose value would bring a sixth-round comp pick but signs a qualifying player whose value would be in the range for a third-round pick. That team would receive a sixth-round comp pick because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the higher-valued player. If the signed player’s value was equal to a fourth-round pick or lower, however, the team would receive a third-round comp pick, because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the lower-valued player. [/font][/color][/size][/b]