Off Season Thread

[Lewdog]

[quote name='JBandJoeyV' timestamp='1351779019' post='1176172']
No way in hell they move votto out of the three spot. No frickin way.

And Phillips only lead off for a week or two before getting hurt and overall numbers lead off weren't good this year although they were solid in 2011.

Ideal world though BP is 2 and votto 3.
[/quote]

If Votto doesn't get the pop back in his bat, he would better suited for the #2 slot. He has a high on base percentage than Phillips and hits more doubles than Phillips. Phillips followed by Bruce helps break up the lefty-lefty combination putting Phillips in between Votto and Bruce. So basically a perfect scenario would be the Lead off getting on base via a walk,hit, or error. Votto backs that up with a double which potentially scores a run or puts two guys in scoring position, with Phillips and Bruce coming up to bat to knock in some runs. You have to admit that is a sweet situation.

[JBandJoeyV]

[quote name='Lewdog' timestamp='1351803893' post='1176285']


If Votto doesn't get the pop back in his bat, he would better suited for the #2 slot. He has a high on base percentage than Phillips and hits more doubles than Phillips. Phillips followed by Bruce helps break up the lefty-lefty combination putting Phillips in between Votto and Bruce. So basically a perfect scenario would be the Lead off getting on base via a walk,hit, or error. Votto backs that up with a double which potentially scores a run or puts two guys in scoring position, with Phillips and Bruce coming up to bat to knock in some runs. You have to admit that is a sweet situation.
[/quote]

You are acting like he had a leg amputated. Votto will get his power back. I don't think anyone in the world is questioning that.

Ill bet all the money to my name that if votto plays 99.9 percent of his at bats in the 3 hole unless something crazy happens and we trade for pujols. Even then votto would still prob bat 3.

Even if your idea was better, dusty wouldn't do it.

[Lewdog]

[quote name='JBandJoeyV' timestamp='1351805831' post='1176309']
You are acting like he had a leg amputated. Votto will get his power back. I don't think anyone in the world is questioning that.

Ill bet all the money to my name that if votto plays 99.9 percent of his at bats in the 3 hole unless something crazy happens and we trade for pujols. Even then votto would still prob bat 3.

Even if your idea was better, dusty wouldn't do it.
[/quote]

Part of that is, Dusty doesn't really believe in the idea of great hitters being better off hitting a pitcher that throws the opposite of what he hits. So Dusty often has guys that bat either left or right next to each other in the order. In late innings an opposing coach can save an arm in the bull pen if say 2-3 hitters in a row bat Right or Left. Otherwise a reliever might only face one batter and then be taken out of the game.

I just like Phillips in the 3 hole because he seems to hit better when he has more pressure on him. Then again, Vottoe had one of the highest batting averages in the league with RISP. So I am actually torn on how I want it.

[JBandJoeyV]

[quote name='Lewdog' timestamp='1351808049' post='1176325']
Part of that is, Dusty doesn't really believe in the idea of great hitters being better off hitting a pitcher that throws the opposite of what he hits. So Dusty often has guys that bat either left or right next to each other in the order. In late innings an opposing coach can save an arm in the bull pen if say 2-3 hitters in a row bat Right or Left. Otherwise a reliever might only face one batter and then be taken out of the game.

I just like Phillips in the 3 hole because he seems to hit better when he has more pressure on him. Then again, Vottoe had one of the highest batting averages in the league with RISP. So I am actually torn on how I want it.
[/quote]

Well try not to think too hard, because unless hell freezes over Dusty will bat Votto third, whether or not it is the smartest decision (which I think it is).

[JC]

If you have a guy who hits a lot of doubles, don't you want to put as many guys in front of him as you possibly can? No way you bat Votto second. You put your highest OBP guys in front of him and let him drive them in.

[JBandJoeyV]

[quote name='JC' timestamp='1351821606' post='1176409']
If you have a guy who hits a lot of doubles, don't you want to put as many guys in front of him as you possibly can? No way you bat Votto second. You put your highest OBP guys in front of him and let him drive them in.
[/quote]

Yeah, it doesnt make much sense. Dont worry, it aint happening.

[JC]

Just saw the Giants are letting Angel Pagan hit fee agency. He may not be a bad option. Has an OBP over .300.

[Lewdog]

[quote name='JC' timestamp='1351821606' post='1176409']
If you have a guy who hits a lot of doubles, don't you want to put as many guys in front of him as you possibly can? No way you bat Votto second. You put your highest OBP guys in front of him and let him drive them in.
[/quote]
[quote name='JBandJoeyV' timestamp='1351821792' post='1176412']
Yeah, it doesnt make much sense. Dont worry, it aint happening.
[/quote]

First, Votto hits a lot of doubles, but so does Phillips. Phillips has roughly the same power as Votto. What Phillips doesn't have, is an on base percentage to Votto. Batting Votto second would also give Votto more at bats. So, why shouldn't a guy that gets on base a lot hit higher in the line up? Honestly I have thought hard about this, and the only stat that I can find that keeps him in the 3 spot is his batting percentages with runners in scoring position.

[JBandJoeyV]

[quote name='Lewdog' timestamp='1351825431' post='1176450']
First, Votto hits a lot of doubles, but so does Phillips. Phillips has roughly the same power as Votto. What Phillips doesn't have, is an on base percentage to Votto. Batting Votto second would also give Votto more at bats. So, why shouldn't a guy that gets on base a lot hit higher in the line up? Honestly I have thought hard about this, and the only stat that I can find that keeps him in the 3 spot is his batting percentages with runners in scoring position.
[/quote]

PLEASE look up stats before talking, its really getting obnoxious. Phillips doesnt "roughly" have the same power as Votto.

Votto averages close to 30 homers and 40 doubles a year. Phillips is closer to 20 homers and 30 doubles. Thats 33 percent less homers and 25 percent less doubles.

[Lewdog]

[quote name='JBandJoeyV' timestamp='1351825837' post='1176453']
PLEASE look up stats before talking, its really getting obnoxious. Phillips doesnt "roughly" have the same power as Votto.

Votto averages close to 30 homers and 40 doubles a year. Phillips is closer to 20 homers and 30 doubles. Thats 33 percent less homers and 25 percent less doubles.
[/quote]

Ok, I'm going to be civil about this despite your reaction. Votto has only broke 30 home runs once in his career, when he hit 37 in in 2010. The rest of his career he has mostly been the mid twenties. Phillips hit 30 homers one year and has been around the 20 home run spot all the rest. So you were pretty far out of the line to yell at me for not getting the stats right, when yours are off. Votto hit 44 doubles in 2012 despite missing games to injury, and does normal have 35-40 doubles per year. Phillips had 38 doubles in 2011, which is only 6 doubles behind Votto. Phillips does seem to average around 30 double a year. So given the real stats how much more of a power hitter is Votto to Phillips? How far off was I in the post you went off about? The actual stats don't seem that far off from what I said.

[BigDawgBengal]

Votto averages a HR every 19 AB. Phillips averages a HR every 30 AB so I would say Votto has more power.

If both players stay healthy and play a full season Votto should hit 10 to 12 more HRs a season than Phillps.

To add on, Votto averages a double every 13 AB and Phillps averages one every 19 AB.

Also Votto has a career slugging percentage 120 points higher than Phillips.

[Lewdog]

[quote name='BigDawgBengal' timestamp='1351827284' post='1176464']
Votto averages a HR every 19 AB. Phillips averages a HR every 30 AB so I would say Votto has more power.
[/quote]

I never said he had as much power as Votto, but given the entire argument involved, including post #26 and down, the power difference doesn't make a compelling argument why Votto is cemented as the best guy to hit third in the order. His RISP batting average does. He is near the top of the entire league.

[JBandJoeyV]

[quote name='BigDawgBengal' timestamp='1351827284' post='1176464']
Votto averages a HR every 19 AB. Phillips averages a HR every 30 AB so I would say Votto has more power.

If both players stay healthy and play a full season Votto should hit 10 to 12 more HRs a season than Phillps.

To add on, Votto averages a double every 13 AB and Phillps averages one every 19 AB.

Also Votto has a career slugging percentage 120 points higher than Phillips.
[/quote]

Thanks for helping prove my point. If you average out those numbers, Votto would average about 30 homers and 40 doubles whereas BP would be about 20 and 30. Just like I said in my post.

Not sure why we are even arguing this though, once again there is no way in hell Votto isnt batting 3rd this season.

[Jason]

From ESPN's 5 Moves that Need to Happen:

Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8579468/los-angeles-dodgers-trading-andre-ethier-national-league-moves-happen-winter-mlb

[b]2. [url="http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-reds"]Cincinnati Reds[/url] sign CF [url="http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28535/michael-bourn"]Michael Bourn[/url] for five years, $70 million.[/b]

Last season, the Reds had the lowest on-base percentage out of the first spot in the batting order, and it wasn't close. Collectively, batters in the first spot of the Reds' order posted a .254 OBP -- the next-worst team, the [url="http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/lad/los-angeles-dodgers"]Los Angeles Dodgers[/url], posted a .281 OBP.
They weren't much better from the second spot either, as they posted a .310 OBP that ranked 22nd in the game. One of the chief culprits for this performance was [url="http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29611/drew-stubbs"]Drew Stubbs[/url], who spent 103 games in either the first or second spot in the batting order. Stubbs heated up in June, but started and ended the season on a sour note, and by the end of the season he was buried at the bottom of the order.
Enter Bourn, who is a much better version of Stubbs. Stubbs is a good defender and baserunner, but Bourn is better, and he also posted an [url="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/woba/"]wOBA[/url] 55 points better Stubbs' last season. After 2010, it seemed like Stubbs might be a prodigious center field slugger, but his isolated power metric has fallen the past two years to the point where he is equal to Bourn. Bourn does all of the good things that Stubbs does, but does them better and is a superior hitter. Signing Bourn would make Cincy the clear favorite in the NL Central.

[Jason]

I don't know that I would go 5 years. Billy Hamilton isn't too far away. I believe he will be up no later than September 2013.

Although Hamilton and Bourn at the top of a lineup could scare the hell out of pitchers.

1. Hamilton CF
2. Bourn LF
3. Votto 1B
4. Frazier 3B
5. Bruce RF
6. Phillips 2B
7. Cozart SS
8. Hanigan/Mesorocco C
9. Pitcher

could be a very effective lineup in 2014.

[gatorclaws]

I've read Bourn is aiming for $100 million which should take us out of that race.

I would do 5/70 though, and then worry about Hamilton when he makes the bigs.

[Bengals1181]

wouldn't expect much from the Reds in free agency. Saw this from Lance earlier in the week.


[quote][b]The math doesn't work....does it?[/b]
[color=#000000][font=Arial,]The reality of the Reds 2013 payroll situation begins to set in if you look at the dollars committed to contracts, buyouts and arbitration. Guys like Votto, Cueto and Bruce are due big jumps in pay. Guys like Latos and Bailey are set to cash in with arbitration. Let's say the Reds bump their payroll from $87.8M in 2012 to around $95M in 2013. The Reds don't have much wiggle room for free agents/taking on salary in trades.[/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=Arial,][b]2013 [/b]
Committed salaries/buyouts: Around $72M+
Arbitration: Around 20M
Total: $92M+
That figure does not include Ryan Ludwick, Jonathan Broxton, or any free agents.
I could see the Reds non-tendering Bray and Valdez. That would free up around $2.5M.[/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=Arial,]
[b][url="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/arbitration-eligibles-cincinnati-reds.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter"]Arbitration eligibles for Reds[/url][/b][/font][/color][color=#000000][font=Arial,]
[b]MLBTradeRumors[/b]
If Latos, Bailey, Leake, Stubbs, Bray, Heisey, Ondrusek, and Simon are retained, the Reds are looking at $20MM for eight arbitration eligible players. As I've mentioned, however, some of those eight are borderline non-tender candidates.[/font][/color][color=#000000][font=Arial,]
[b]First time:[/b]
Mat Latos ($4.6MM)
Mike Leake ($2.9MM)
Drew Stubbs ($2.9MM)
Chris Heisey ($1.3MM)
Logan Ondrusek ($900K)
Alfredo Simon ($800K)
[b]Second time:[/b]
Homer Bailey ($5.1MM)
Wilson Valdez ($1MM)
[b]Third time:[/b]
Bill Bray ($1.5MM)[/font][/color]
[color=#000000][font=Arial,]
***[/font][/color][color=#000000][font=Arial,]

[b]Contracts for 2013 (Based on what I can figure out)[/b]
Commitments: Around $72M+, including buyouts[/font][/color][color=#000000][font=Arial,]
Votto: $19M[/font][/color][color=#000000][font=Arial,]
Arroyo: $11.5M
Phillips: $10M
Bruce: $7.5M
Cueto: $7.4M
Marshall: $4.5M
Masset: $3.1M
Hanigan: $2.05M[/font][/color][color=#000000][font=Arial,]
Chapman: $2M
Arredondo $1.2M
[b]Options[/b]

Madson $11M, (Buyout $2.5M)
Ludwick $5M mutual (Buyout $500K)[b]Free agents[/b][/font][/color][color=#000000][font=Arial,]
Scott Rolen, Miguel Cairo, Jonathan Broxton, Dioner Navarro
Xavier Paul
[b]Team control at league minimum[/b]
Todd Frazier, Zack Cozart, Devin Mesoraco, JJ Hoover, Sam LeCure[/font][/color]




[color=#000000][font=Arial,]Read more: [/font][/color][url="http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog.html#ixzz2B5XZ40Re"]http://www.espn1530....l#ixzz2B5XZ40Re[/url][/quote]

[BengalRep85-9]

Let Bray, Ondrusek, and Stubbs walk. Simon I don't care either way, decent mop up guy.

$3M for Stubbs would be a joke, Bray is never healthy (just look at his motion), Ondrusek doesn't impress me at all.

[BigDawgBengal]

I would not mind adding Kevin Youkilis if he could be had for cheap. Maybe 2 years 8 to 10 mill. He can play first and third and be a good guy to bring off the bench. He also can replace Rolen's leadership and he has playoff experience. I am just not sure he will be willing to take that cheap of a contract and be just a role player.

[JBandJoeyV]

I highly doubt we make a big splash in FA. Trade is possible but doubt its a free agent. If they truly think Hamilton could start cf by 2014 I'd try just to get a 1 year stop gap leadoff cf that wouldn't be that expensive. Ie denard span.

[BigDawgBengal]

Another change I would like to see is a new hitting coach hired. This team was horrible at bunting and they were below average in the NL in team average and near the top in strikeouts.

[Lewdog]

[quote name='BengalRep85-9' timestamp='1351885253' post='1176575']
Let Bray, Ondrusek, and Stubbs walk. Simon I don't care either way, decent mop up guy.

$3M for Stubbs would be a joke, Bray is never healthy (just look at his motion), Ondrusek doesn't impress me at all.
[/quote]

Ondrusek was far and away one of the Reds best relievers this year. He had just a few horrible games that blew up his ERA. If I remember correctly he had one of the best, inherited runners percentage. That's the kind of guy starters love.

[Bengals1181]

holy crab.

[color=#333333][font=Arial, sans-serif][background=rgb(245, 245, 245)]
[url="https://twitter.com/LanceMcAlister"][b]Lance McAlister[/b] ‏[size=3][s]@[/s][b]LanceMcAlister[/b][/size][/url][/background][/font][/color][color=#333333][font=Arial, sans-serif][background=rgb(245, 245, 245)]
Billy Hamilton in Rising Stars game next on MLB Network [url="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Reds&src=hash"][s]#[/s][b]Reds[/b][/url][url="https://twitter.com/LanceMcAlister"][b]Lance McAlister[/b] ‏[/url][/background][/font][/color]


[url="https://twitter.com/LanceMcAlister"][b]Lance McAlister[/b] ‏[size=3][s]@[/s][b]LanceMcAlister[/b][/size][/url]
He stole 3B on the throw from the catcher back to the pitcher. Amazing. [url="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Reds&src=hash"][s]#[/s][b]Reds[/b][/url]

[Jamie_B]

[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1351989967' post='1176827']
holy crab.


[color=#333333][font=Arial, sans-serif][background=rgb(245, 245, 245)][url="https://twitter.com/LanceMcAlister"][b]Lance McAlister[/b] ‏[size=3][s]@[/s][b]LanceMcAlister[/b][/size][/url][/background][/font][/color]
[color=#333333][font=Arial, sans-serif][background=rgb(245, 245, 245)]Billy Hamilton in Rising Stars game next on MLB Network [url="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Reds&src=hash"][s]#[/s][b]Reds[/b][/url][url="https://twitter.com/LanceMcAlister"][b]Lance McAlister[/b] ‏[/url][/background][/font][/color]


[url="https://twitter.com/LanceMcAlister"][b]Lance McAlister[/b] ‏[size=3][s]@[/s][b]LanceMcAlister[/b][/size][/url]
He stole 3B on the throw from the catcher back to the pitcher. Amazing. [url="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Reds&src=hash"][s]#[/s][b]Reds[/b][/url]
[/quote]


I cant wait till he's ready.

[BigDawgBengal]

Announcers talking up Hamilton. Said he is making mistakes in CF but his speed allows him to make up for it. Also said he has good enough arm strength and should not take him long to be ready to play CF in majors.