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Choo for Stubbs and Gregorious!!!


Jason

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[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1355284416' post='1191882']
Just not a fan of one year rentals.
[/quote]

Yeah but when you have your top prospect waiting in the wings, probably 1 year away, you can either chose to just stay the status quo or you can do something to improve your team for that 1 year until the top prospect is ready.

If you are a rebuilding team or a team multiple players away, you probably just stay the status quo. When you are a championship caliber team and you have 1 glaring weakness and have an opportunity to fix that weakness without giving much up, you do it.

All day, everyday. You have to look at the big picture and not just the fact he is a 1 year rental. Choo puts this lineup over the top IMO. Its very rare a team wins 97 games with the worst leadoff spot in baseball.

If we stay healthy and dont have too many players that drastically underperform, this team probably be the favorites to win it all.
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Some stats to help support my beliefs...

Lets say the leadoff spot comes up about 700 times in a season (703 last year). Our leadoff hitters last year had an OBP of .254. That means our guys got on base about 180 times.

Choo had an OBP of .389 batting leadoff (not just a one year thing either, had 3 of his 4 previous seasons with an OBP over .390). If he maintains that, he will get on base 272 times. Lets say that number drops to 250 which would put the OBP at .357 or a 30 point drop. Fair enough right?

That means the leadoff guy would still be a guy on base 70 more times then in 2012. That means Votto will be hitting with a guy on base about 55-60 times more this season (adjusted the 70 more times for DPs and Caught Stealing).

Votto over the last 3 years hits .357 with runners on. He gets an RBI about .35 times for every at bat he comes up with a guy on base. Giving him 55 more at bats times .35= 20 more RBIs for Votto this year, SOLEY due to the change in the leadoff position.

Now lets take into consideration the fact that Phillips will be batting in the 2 hole instead of Cozart/stubbs/whoever. Last year in the two spot we had an OBP of .310. Our two spot came up 670 times. That means the 2 guy got on base about 215 times last year. Over the last 3 years, BP in the 2 hole has an OBP of about .350. That means he would get on base in 2013 approximately 235 times. 20 more times then in 2012.

Add the 20 to the 55 and you have 75 more ABs with guys on for votto. times .35= 27 more RBIs for Votto.

So this doesnt even take into consideration how much this will help guys like Ludwick and Bruce. But for Votto alone it should add about 25 RBIs for him with all other things being equal.

How many moves could enhance a lineup like that?
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[quote name='JBandJoeyV' timestamp='1355285202' post='1191883']
Yeah but when you have your top prospect waiting in the wings, probably 1 year away, you can either chose to just stay the status quo or you can do something to improve your team for that 1 year until the top prospect is ready.

If you are a rebuilding team or a team multiple players away, you probably just stay the status quo. When you are a championship caliber team and you have 1 glaring weakness and have an opportunity to fix that weakness without giving much up, you do it.

All day, everyday. You have to look at the big picture and not just the fact he is a 1 year rental. Choo puts this lineup over the top IMO. Its very rare a team wins 97 games with the worst leadoff spot in baseball.

If we stay healthy and dont have too many players that drastically underperform, this team probably be the favorites to win it all.
[/quote]

IF Hamilton will be ready in a year. The whole deal hinges on that.


Just look at it from the other perspective.


Stubbs vs Choo: Certainly a significant upgrade in offense, but also a significant downgrade in defense from everything I've read. So basically a wash, or slight advantage Choo is you choose.

Then you toss in Gregorious, one of the Reds top prospects. Even if he wouldn't have had a spot on the big league club, he could have been good trade bait at another point.


A year from now, all three will be gone. It's two players for a one year deal, and then you let the guy walk. That's the type of deal you see in July during a pennant race, not one made at the winter meetings.

I don't hate the deal, and I know Choo can be great offensively, I just don't like that in the longterm you're left with none of the pieces from the trade a year from now.
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[b]What they are saying
[url="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/win-now-edicts-spurring-flurry-of-movement-across-mlb-061318501.html"]Yahoo Sports:[/url][/b][color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3] Look at the Reds. They had a boot on the San Francisco Giants' throat, saw the NLCS and let up, and the Giants swept them in Cincinnati and won the World Series. So of course they're in, and getting Choo to play center field is a move that's alternately brilliant and head-scratching. [/size][/font][/color]
[b][url="http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121211&content_id=40619926&vkey=news_cle&c_id=cle"]Indians.com:[/url][/b][color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3] "He's (Stubbs) a great defender in center field," Antonetti said. "He brings an element of speed and power to our team. ... He's one of the best defenders in center field and provides a great deal of athleticism out there." [/size][/font][/color][b][url="http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2012/12/cleveland_indians_close_to_sen.html"]Cleveland Plain Dealer:[/url][/b][color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3] "It was very tough to trade Choo because of what he's meant on and off the field to this organization," said Antonetti. [/size][/font][/color]
[b][url="http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121211&content_id=40620772&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin"]Reds.com:[/url][/b][color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3] "We think he's a great athlete, and he still runs well from side to side, and we think that in our ballpark, he'll do fine in center field," Jocketty said. [/size][/font][/color]
[b][url="http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121211&content_id=40619900&vkey=news_ari&c_id=ari&partnerId=aw-4920763077329441943-1028"]Diamondbacks.com:[/url][/b][color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3] "When I saw him (Gregorious), he reminded me of a young Derek Jeter," Towers said. "I was fortunate enough to see Jeter when he was in high school in Michigan. He's got that type of range, he's got speed, more of a line-drive-type hitter, and I think he's got the type of approach at the plate and separation to where I think there's going to be power there as well." [/size][/font][/color]
[b][url="http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/12/12/money-was-key-in-the-trade/"]John Fay:[/url][/b][color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3] One key element of the big trade last night that cannot be overlooked is the fact that the Reds got $3.5 million from the Indians in the deal.[/size][/font][/color]
[b][url="http://ht.ly/g1Hvr"]BaseballAmerica:[/url][/b][color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3] Choo would probably be one of the worst defensive center fielders in the big leagues, but the offense he'll provide would be a major upgrade over Stubbs.[/size][/font][/color]
[b]Tweet all about it[/b]
[color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3]Reds have C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, RF, 5 SP and closer under team control through '14 All but 1 SP (Bailey) of group under control through '15[/size][/font][/color]
[b]JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36)/Baseball America[/b]
[color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3]Tonight, Chris Antonetti turned one year of Shin-Soo Choo and some spare parts into six years of Trevor Bauer. That's called a good night.[/size][/font][/color]
[b]Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan)/Yahoo baseball[/b]
[color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3]#RealTalk: @DidiG18 u are one of the #BEST SS I played next to & I played next to many! Sad to see u go but happy 4 your opportunity #DoWork[/size][/font][/color][b]
Brandon Phillips (@DatDudeBP)[/b]
[color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3]It'll be interesting to see how the CIN outfield alignment will wind up. Some evaluators convinced Choo can't play CF regularly.[/size][/font][/color]
[b]Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN)[/b]
[color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3]#Dbacks Towers on Gregorious "He's athletic. He reminded me of a young Derek Jeter."[/size][/font][/color][b]
Steve Gilbert (@SteveGilbertMLB)[/b]
[color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3]choo is a great get to lead off for #reds. tremendous RF, but big question is how he will do in CF.[/size][/font][/color][b]
Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS)[/b]
[color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3]Talked to two scouts who scouted Choo last year and both opined that Bruce would end up in CF and Choo in RF after Dusty evaluates them[/size][/font][/color]

[color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3]Read more: [url="http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog.html#ixzz2EqLZ5rQY"]http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog.html#ixzz2EqLZ5rQY[/url][/size][/font][/color]
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[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1355318946' post='1191916']
[b]What they are saying
[url="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/win-now-edicts-spurring-flurry-of-movement-across-mlb-061318501.html"]Yahoo Sports:[/url][/b][color=#000000][font=Arial, sans-serif][size=3] Look at the Reds. They had a boot on the San Francisco Giants' throat, saw the NLCS and let up, and the Giants swept them in Cincinnati and won the World Series. So of course they're in, and getting Choo to play center field is a move that's[b] alternately brilliant and head-scratching.[/b] [/size][/font][/color]

[/quote]

As long as Choo isn't absolutely horrible in CF I don't see much head-scratching about it at all.
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[quote name='Bengals1181' timestamp='1355314653' post='1191900']
IF Hamilton will be ready in a year. The whole deal hinges on that.


Just look at it from the other perspective.


Stubbs vs Choo: Certainly a significant upgrade in offense, but also a significant downgrade in defense from everything I've read. So basically a wash, or slight advantage Choo is you choose.

Then you toss in Gregorious, one of the Reds top prospects. Even if he wouldn't have had a spot on the big league club, he could have been good trade bait at another point.


A year from now, all three will be gone. It's two players for a one year deal, and then you let the guy walk. That's the type of deal you see in July during a pennant race, not one made at the winter meetings.

I don't hate the deal, and I know Choo can be great offensively, I just don't like that in the longterm you're left with none of the pieces from the trade a year from now.
[/quote]

Where you are way off base, IMO, is calling Choo for Stubbs a wash, or slight advantage to Choo.

I think Choo is a HUGE upgrade over Stubbs. Choo might not be great in CF (or bruce if he ends up in CF), but that might cost you a couple runs over the course of the season. Offensively he can add a tremendous amount more then stubbs, IE see the post I made above.

We are now going to potentially have 3 .300 hitters (or close to) batting 1-2-3...not only will RBI opportunities go up for Joey, but should go up tremendously for Ludwick and Bruce.

I wouldnt be surprised if Votto-Ludwick-Bruce all had over 100 RBIs next year if everyone stays healthy.
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[quote name='Jason' timestamp='1355319557' post='1191919']
As long as Choo isn't absolutely horrible in CF I don't see much head-scratching about it at all.
[/quote]

A lot of people think Choo might be better in CF. He has decent speed and has a cannon, his problem was his route to the ball. Some people have said that its easier to judge the route to the ball from CF then it is from RF. I guess we'll see. But at the end of the day the CF gets maybe 1-2 balls a week that a top notch CF would get that a bottom notch wouldnt. His bat will more than make up for it.

A lot of people think Stubbs was overrated defensively too.
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