Bengals, Dalton have target-rich environment

[Bengals1181]

The first half of the season comes to a close for the Bengals yesterday and if you would have been told the setup before the year started you might not have believed it considering the schedule.

Yet, here are the Bengals, 6-2 overall, 2 1/2-point lead in the division and sitting as the second seed in the AFC if the season ended today (Disclaimer: It does not).

With the Browns doing Browns things and the Steelers in death spiral mode, the Ravens appear to be the only team capable of making a run at the division title. Yet, they are 3-4 with trips coming to Chicago, Detroit, two games with the Bengals and hosting New England. Now we are talking about a game in two weeks in Baltimore that can all but put this division away before the leaves are all off the trees.

At the halfway point we have a great opportunity to look at some individual projections and a look at possible records that could go down if players can replicate their first half. I’d have a hard time believing anybody thinks we’ll see another four-TD game in the second half of the season, but still, with a half-season sample size in the books most of these stats are realistic.

ANDY DALTON

Season Projection: 4,498 yards, 32 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 65.6 percent completions, 8.1 yards/attempt, rating 99.0. 

Record: His passing yards would break Carson Palmer’s franchise mark of 4,131 (2007)

Record: He would tie Palmer’s mark of 32 TD passes (2005).

Record: His 6 300-yard games would break Boomer Esiason’s record for most 300-yard games in a season (5 in 1987)

Second Place: His 99.0 passer rating would be second in franchise history Palmer’s 101.1 in 2005.

A.J. GREEN

Season Projection: 92 receptions, 1,468 yards, 10 TDs, 16.0 yards/catch, eight 100-yard games

Record: Would break Chad Johnson’s record of 1,440 yards (2007).

Record: Would shatter team record of five 100-yard receiving games in a season.

MARVIN JONES

Season Projection: 48 receptions, 738 yards, 14 touchdowns. 

Second: Would land second in franchise history for most receiving touchdowns in a season (17, Carl Pickens, 1995)

DISTRIBUTION

Season Projection: Six players with at least 48 receptions and 480 yards

Near record: New Orleans Saints in 2011 only other team to have six players with at least 500 yards receiving. Gio Bernard only of six under 500, currently at 484 pace.

DEFENSE

Season Projection: 18.0 points per game, 44 sacks, 288 total points

Record: Only once since 1978 (non-strike) have the Bengals allowed this few points (285 in 1989).

— Many of the new records revolve around Dalton and the passing attack. Defensively, they will need a push on their current projection of 44 sacks to catch up with the franchise mark set last season at 51.

As for overall excellence, the Bengals are currently ranked in the top 10 of the league in both offense and defense. That last time that happened in non-strike year? 1975.

Really, should Dalton replicate the first half only Carson Palmer’s 2005 season could compete with this 2013 campaign. Even that will fall short in a number of areas.

Many of the haters have disappeared during his remarkable three-game stretch, but really looking at this as an eight-game stretch reveals the larger sample size efficiency.

 

 

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/bengals/2013/10/28/the-walkthrough-projecting-forward/

[Bengals1181]

any footballguys.com subscribers in the house?

 

 

Cian Fahey ‏@Cianaf1h

The overwhelming weaponry of the Cincinnati Bengals...and their quarterback: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=PushPockWk82013 …

[Bengals1181]

NFL Stats ‏@NFL_Stats7m

Top 5 Teams in Total Yardage: 1. #Broncos - 3,731 2. #Eagles - 3,719 3. #Bengals - 3,422 4. #Packers - 3,384 5. #Lions - 3,328

Josh Kirkendall ‏@CincyJungle4m

Bengals are averaging 380.2 yards/game. At this pace, they'll surpass 6,000 yards on offense -- last time they reached 6,000 yards was '89.

[alleycat]

 

NFL Stats ‏@NFL_Stats7m

Top 5 Teams in Total Yardage: 1. #Broncos - 3,731 2. #Eagles - 3,719 3. #Bengals - 3,422 4. #Packers - 3,384 5. #Lions - 3,328

 

Not a real useful stat when we've all played different numbers of games.  We're actually 9th in YPG.  Here's hoping we can be 3rd overall when the season ends though...

[coup000]

 

Not a real useful stat when we've all played different numbers of games.  We're actually 9th in YPG.  Here's hoping we can be 3rd overall when the season ends though...

9th in YPG is still not too shabby. I doubt most here expected a top 10 offense, whether they doubted Andy, the line, Gruden etc. And at this point there is still quite a bit of room for improvement.

[Bengals1181]

Giovani Bernard had nine carries for 79 yards and four receptions for 25 yards in last week’s loss to Miami. Enquirer photo by Gary Landers

After his second two touchdown game of the season, including a 35-yard touchdown run that is still making the rounds on highlight reels, many have wondered if Giovani Bernard will get more touches starting Sunday at Baltimore.

Offensive coordinator Jay Gruden said on Thursday that he was fine with the production from Bernard so far, but did acknowledge that he has shown he should get more. But Gruden also said that any final decisions on if and when Bernard would become the feature back are up to Marvin Lewis.

Said Gruden: “I try to go with the flow of the game and try not to vary calls, but obviously when Gio’s in there I know when he’s in there. I try to get him some touches whether it’s out of the backfield as a receiver in runs. But he’s proven that the more he touches it the more dangerous he is. He’s still a rookie, and Coach Lewis has done a good job of building up the pace that he wants. Eventually, he might get more. So we’ll see how it goes, but I’m fine with it.”

Bernard was limited in practice a second straight day due to bruised ribs, but all indications are he will play against the Ravens. The one thing Gruden did say is that giving the ball to Bernard 25 times a game is unrealistic. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is still expected to get 12-15 carries a game and Gruden added that he would like to see Cedric Peerman get a couple more.

“He’s banged up a little bit now and Benny’s only averaging what he’s averaging as a running back. He has different carries that Gio has. He has a lot of the first-down carries and a lot of short-yardage carries so maybe his numbers are skewed a little bit, but he’s still a tough runner inside and does a good job with pass protection,” Gruden said. “People see the flash runs that Gio gets us but the meat-and-potatoes runs that Benny’s has, he’s had good runs also. You don’t want to discount Benny for what he’s done just because Gio had a couple of really special runs. But you’re right, Gio’s probably proven that he should get more touches.

“I think 85 or 90 percent of the teams in the league have two or three running backs that they use. So it’s important to have two or three. Gio needs some spelling and he needs a bigger back like BenJarvus to take 10, 12, 15 carries a game, and even Cedric should probably get a couple more. He should probably get some carries, too.”

Bernard is averaging 12.3 touches per game. In six of the nine games, he has had 12 or more.

 

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/bengals/2013/11/07/gruden-happy-with-bernards-touches-so-far-but-leaves-room-for-more/

[Bengals1181]

Bernard is averaging 12.3 touches per game. Since he is compared with Baltimore's Ray Rice, it is worth noting that Rice is averaging 15.5 per game. 

 

http://sulia.com/channel/cincinnati/f/70aa9f8e-5c60-4091-a1ae-6da3a267520e/?source=twitter

[sparky151]

any footballguys.com subscribers in the house?

 

 

Cian Fahey ‏@Cianaf1h

The overwhelming weaponry of the Cincinnati Bengals...and their quarterback: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=PushPockWk82013 …

 

 

Just saw this.

 

PUSHING THE POCKET - THE OVERWHELMING WEAPONRY OF THE CINCINNATI BENGALS...AND THEIR QUARTERBACK

 

Fahey breaks down how the Cincinnati Bengals' offense demolished the New York Jets in Week 8.

 

by Cian Fahey, October 28
Photo: Brett Davis, US Presswire

After two seasons of failure in the first round of the playoffs, the Cincinnati Bengals clearly felt compelled to upgrade their offense during the offseason. Quarterback Andy Dalton didn't elevate himself onto the elite levels during his first two seasons, but he did enough to be the unquestioned starter for Jay Gruden's offense. Instead of looking to replace Dalton, the Bengals instead made concentrated efforts to build the offense around him.

By drafting Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard with their top two picks in the 2013 draft, the Bengals gave themselves arguably the most talented offense in the league outside of the quarterback position. Eifert was considered one of the best tight end prospects coming out of college in many years, while Bernard was going to be the dynamic option coming out of the backfield that could complement or take over for BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

Eifert and Bernard joined an already stocked shelf for the offense: A.J. Green is one of the truly elite wide receivers in today's game. Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu were both very impressive as rookies with enough talent to develop into real difference makers at the receiver position. Andrew Hawkins, a veteran, was also expected to contribute, while Jermaine Gresham was already an above average, veteran tight end on the roster. Combine all those weapons with an outstanding offensive line and it's easy to see why so many were so high on the Bengals leading up to this year despite any question marks over the quarterback position.

Before Week 8, this most recent NFL weekend, the Bengals had scored more than 30 points just once. The impact of Eifert and Bernard was limited as they adjusted to the professional ranks, while Dalton wasn't getting the most out of the weapons around him. In recent weeks, everything began to click into place however. Against the Buffalo Bills in Week 6, the Bengals scored 27 points in a close victory over the Buffalo Bills. In Week 7, they mirrored that performance with another three point win while scoring 27 points.

That all led up to this week's 49-9 explosion against the New York Jets.

While the Jets defense doesn't have the talent spread through it like it has in recent seasons, Rex Ryan had continued to get the most out of his players even without Bob Sutton and Mike Pettine on his coaching staff. Most notably, Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson had been dominant forces upfront rushing the passer. In Cincinnati on Sunday, Wilkerson and Richardson were shut down by the Bengals' offensive line. They Jets as a team sacked Dalton just once and that play came when Wilkerson tracked down Dalton when he was scrambling in the flat.

With the pass rush neutralized, Dalton could comfortably look for his mismatch weapons on the outside. Weapons that the Jets simply couldn't contain.

Very early on the very first drive of the game, the Jets would make their intentions with A.J. Green known. In the past, Rex Ryan had used Darrelle Revis in single coverage against the opposition's best receiver. When Revis was injured last season,Antonio Cromartie stepped in and did a fine job in that role. However, this year Cromartie is struggling.

On this play, Green and Cromartie are lined up across from each other to the top of the screen. There is a safety to that side of the field, but he is moving towards the line of scrimmage as the Bengals have a tight end and fullback to that side of the field.

The Jets send a blitz after Dalton at the snap, but the offensive line easily picks it up. Dalton immediately looks to Green at the snap, who is running down the sideline. Green has already got in behind Cromartie and he begins to create greater separation as he moves down the sideline.

Even though Green is open for a big play and potentially a touchdown on a well-thrown pass, Cromartie is able to tip the ball away when it arrives. That is not really a credit to Cromartie, because he is only able to tip the ball because Dalton severely under-throws the pass. Instead of running underneath the ball or catching it in front of his face, Green is reaching back and stopping to try and get the ball. Even then, he has no chance because of Cromartie's length.

While Green couldn't make a play on that poor pass, Dalton followed it up with two passes his receivers could have made plays on.

Tyler Eifert successfully brought down an overthrown pass on an out route underneath, but Mohamed Sanu couldn't make a tough reception down the field on a pass that Dalton slightly overthrew. The placement of Dalton's pass asked Sanu to make a tough extended catch with his hands, but the bigger issue was the velocity and trajectory of the ball.

Because Dalton doesn't have an overly strong arm, he has to force those passes down the field. Instead of Sanu running underneath a falling pass, he has to try to snatch a rocket out of the air. Could he have caught the pass? Yes, but it was made more difficult by his quarterback. Furthermore, Dalton had loads of time and space in the pocket when he let the ball go.

In the past, Dalton wouldn't have rebounded from those missed throws. However, even though he wasn't throwing the ball as well as other quarterbacks in the league do, the difference with Dalton in this game opposed to others was how confident and aggressive he was when throwing to his targets.

It appeared that Dalton understood how overmatched the Jets' secondary was against his weapons. After he couldn't connect with Sanu down the seam, he threw a deep pass down the left sideline that appeared to be slightly overthrown again. However, Sanu beat Cromartie and drew a pass interference flag that moved the ball into the red zone regardless.

After Sanu brought them down the field, Dalton threw a very accurate and aggressive intermediate pass to Marvin Jones for the first touchdown of the day.

Dalton threw four touchdown passes to Jones on the day. Two were back-shoulder throws when Dalton let the ball go very early and placed it perfectly for Jones to catch away from the defensive back.

Both of those throws were exceptional, but the other touchdown passes were all down to Jones' ability.

One was a quick bubble screen where he and Tyler Eifert lined up tight together out wide. Eifert is a matchup problem for the defense there, because the Bengals were able to use his size to put Jones in a one-on-one situation. Jones spun out of one tackle before evading an incoming defender to dive into the end-zone

The other touchdown pass was an okay throw from Dalton, because he gave his receiver a chance, but again it was slightly too high. Jones sprung into the air with great athleticism, but showed off even better body control to somehow fit his first foot into the end zone before dragging his back-foot down before landing out of bounds.

Jones and Dalton were on the same page all day, but outside of those two perfect strikes to Jones in the end zone for a touchdown, more often than not it was the receiver making the quarterback look better than he actually was. Dalton should be given credit for being aggressive and giving his receivers opportunities but he was dropping passes behind the ears of defensive backs like Aaron Rodgers.

The relatively young quarterback threw one excellent pass to Jones on a curl route. Dalton pushed the ball outside of Jones towards the sideline when the cornerback was lined up directly over him. Jones adjusted naturally as he strafed towards the ball and the cornerback was caught downfield. The wide receiver then sprinted down the sideline for a huge gain as he broke multiple tackles. Dalton made a good throw, but it was Jones' ability at the catch point and with the ball after the catch that turned an eight yard gain into a 45-yard-gain.

Jones made another outstanding play here as he runs down the seam. However, first it should be noted who is covering him.

When you have a team with as many weapons as the Bengals, it's impossible for the defense to match up to every option adequately. Jones, an explosive receiver, is matched up with linebacker David Harris on this play. Harris is playing with safety help over the top so he runs underneath the receiver as he runs down the seam, but Harris is never tight to Jones so there is a window for Dalton to throw into.

Dalton puts the ball in a spot where Harris can't see the pass and Jones can make the catch, but it's a very difficult pass for Jones to catch and it ultimately takes away any YAC potential. When Jones catches the ball, he is facing his own goal line and neither of his feet are on the ground. Now, Dalton likely threw the ball there because he didn't want to risk an interception to Harris, but a quarterback with better arm strength/anticipation would have pushed the ball further down the field to give Jones a chance to potentially score a touchdown with the ball in his hands. The safety may have been incoming, but Jones had proven he could break multiple tackles during the game. 

Dalton's relationship with Sanu and Jones appears to be growing into a very strong and prosperous one. Sanu had just one reception for 24 yards, on a play when Dalton threw an accurate pass down the sideline as he let the ball go early and was aggressive. The young receiver missed a few plays that he should have made, but he also proved to be a nightmare matchup for the Jets' defense.

Although Sanu and Jones caused some major problems, Dalton's other touchdown pass went to Jermaine Gresham and was a result of Tyler Eifert's threat.

Gresham's touchdown came in the first quarter on the second drive of the game. It was an excellent play call at the goal line by offensive coordinator Jay Gruden as he used his two tight ends to attack one specific area of the Jets' secondary. Both players are lined up tight to the line of scrimmage at the bottom of the screen.

Gruden is attacking the safety to the left side of the offense. Eifert runs a curl route underneath, while Gresham attacks the back of the end zone from a similar starting point. Before this point, Eifert had two receptions for 23 yards. That may not seem like much, but there were only 10 minutes or so gone in the game. Eifert's threat underneath drew the safety forward, so Dalton knew immediately that Gresham would be open. 

Dalton deserves credit for making the quick read, but this isn't a difficult read on the NFL level. In fact, it may be one of the easiest. 

Maybe the scariest takeaway from this game is the fact that the Bengals left many big plays on the field. A.J. Green dropped a big pass, Sanu couldn't come up with that early connection in the game, while Dalton missed opportunities in the end zone more than once and under-threw receivers on a few occasions. If the Bengals can correct just a few of those issues, then scoring 49 points in three quarters of work may not be so rare.

While Geno Smith being a rookie who has been inconsistent will suggest that the defense was flattered with its big turnovers for touchdowns, the defense under Mike Zimmer has always been opportunistic.

Even though everything went right for the Bengals in this game, Dalton remains the key. He missed throws, but also had some drops on good throws. His primary issues remain clear however. His deep passing isn't up to NFL standard. He missed Green on the first drive, made Sanu's catch more difficult on the first drive and under-threw Green on his big play late in the game that would have gone for a touchdown. Where Dalton has improved is his confidence in trusting his receivers to make plays, Green was able to do that one another deep ball when Dalton threw it to him even though Cromartie had him well covered.

Green went up and got the ball. Too often last year Green could't because Dalton wouldn't have given him that chance.

Dalton only threw one interception, but it was a terrifyingly bad one. He had another wayward pass on the final drive of the second quarter that should have been intercepted, but that can be overlooked because of his other good plays. The problem with his actual interception was that it showed a complete lack of awareness of the play. The type of thing that should only be seen in rookies.

The Bengals spread the field with Giovani Bernard lined up on the outside as a wide receiver. Even though they are in a passing formation and they will pass the ball, the designed play is a screen pass to Bernard underneath.

The Jets react perfectly to the screen pass so Dalton has nowhere to go with the ball. Calvin Pace is occupying the passing lane, so Dalton holds onto the ball. He has already made a major mistake here because the Bengals are running screens on both sides of the field. To the top of the screen, a receiver is already engaged in a block, while the offensive linemen to the right are already running down the field. If Dalton waits like he does and he completes the pass to a teammate, the play will be negated for a penalty.

Dalton doesn't complete the pass to a teammate. He tries to find Bernard by forcing the ball over the middle of the field. His linemen are already way too far downfield, while the pass goes straight to Muhammad Wilkerson for the interception.

To compound this mistake, the Bengals were winning 14-0 at the time and it was still very early in the second quarter. Throwing the ball away or tucking it and running it for a loss isn't a bad play in this situation. It was third and 12, but a punt would have been much more advisable than a turnover at their own 30 yard line. The Jets came away with a field goal because of this mistake.

One play in a game where he throws five touchdown passes isn't enough to overshadow the rest of Dalton's work, but it is a worrying sign that this incisive version of the Bengals offense may not be sustainable because of the quarterback position.

 

[alleycat]

I didn't look at all of that but found it funny that, after analyzing Dalton's 5TD 49-9 led romp of the Jets, the article ends claiming that the offense may not be sustainable because of the Quarterback.

[Bengals1181]

 

 

 

Just saw this.

 

PUSHING THE P

 

 

 

 

thanks.  I had lost interest in it after seeing the author, just days after lighting up the jets, claim Dalton was a bad QB, but thanks for posting it.

[coup000]

That dude is a douche. He has an already formed opinion and explains away all the good plays as WR skill and every bad play is 100% Dalton's fault. All you need to know is that he called the interception "terrifyingly bad" and that he threw it "straight to Wilkerson". Fucking moron. He barely tipped it and then someone else had to tip it for it to become an INT. Oh he is also from England and just happened to pick up the Steelers as his team.

[Bengals1181]

That dude is a douche. He has an already formed opinion and explains away all the good plays as WR skill and every bad play is 100% Dalton's fault. All you need to know is that he called the interception "terrifyingly bad" and that he threw it "straight to Wilkerson". Fucking moron. He barely tipped it and then someone else had to tip it for it to become an INT. Oh he is also from England and just happened to pick up the Steelers as his team.

 

 

that piece was so bad it makes me severely question the glowing piece he wrote about Leon Hall at the end of last year.

[Oldcat]

That dude is a douche. He has an already formed opinion and explains away all the good plays as WR skill and every bad play is 100% Dalton's fault. All you need to know is that he called the interception "terrifyingly bad" and that he threw it "straight to Wilkerson". Fucking moron. He barely tipped it and then someone else had to tip it for it to become an INT. Oh he is also from England and just happened to pick up the Steelers as his team.

 

Well if he's a Steeler fan, you have to admit he sees a lot of terrifyingly bad interceptions from Ben to compare it to.

[HairOnFire]

Feels like the Jet game was a month ago.

[bearcat7777]

One of my problems with Marvin Jones is his tendency to catch the ball with his chest.  This is a negative not a positive.  Yet this author writes:

 

"The other touchdown pass was an okay throw from Dalton, because he gave his receiver a chance, but again it was slightly too high. Jones sprung into the air with great athleticism, but showed off even better body control to somehow fit his first foot into the end zone before dragging his back-foot down before landing out of bounds."

 

Great that Jones jumps 10 feet in the air to catch the ball off his chest, but just jump up eight feet and reach two feet higher with your arms.  Landing in bounds then is a lot easier and you will also be able to run after the catch.  This method only allows Jones to fall down and potentially drop the ball because the ground becomes a factor. The defender can also just catch you in the air and carry you out of bounds.

 

Jones has been doing better the last several games using his hands to make the catches and I hope he continues using his hands.