Another Andy Dalton Thread

[Jason]

Well?

 

 

[lslmustang]

I think he's on a roll right now but once it gets cold we'll run the ball more which will adjust his yards and TD's but not his rating

[JC]

Gets tough to throw the ball when the weather turns in PBS.  I think we have quite a few home games down the stretch.  I don't think he is going to hit 4500.

 

Which means its very important that we get the run game going here soon.  

[texbengal]

Gets tough to throw the ball when the weather turns in PBS.  I think we have quite a few home games down the stretch.  I don't think he is going to hit 4500.
 
Which means its very important that we get the run game going here soon.

Gruden said as much. And if the passing game continues to pay dividends, that should loosen some things up for the running game.

[Squirrlnutz]

Falls just short of 4500, but still goes beyond 32tds as no one is convinced he can keep it up and teams remain focused on stopping the run and forcing him to make plays through the air as the weather turns.

I'll guess ints tick up a touch and keep his rating below 99.

[cwing]

Don't know but in AD's last 3 games he has shown drastic improvement and is looking very good. Here is hoping he continues on the current path.

[HairOnFire]

What's odder?

 

The fact that someone felt compelled to start another Andy Dalton thread OR that we're still waiting for someone to start this seasons first Carlos Dunlap thread?

[alleycat]

In part because I was curious, in part because I wanted to waste some time, and in part because I wanted to counter-argue a lot of the bad stats I see out there, and lastly because I was curious about his projections because of this thread, I wondered what would happen if I isolated Andy Dalton’s stats, looked at how teams performed when playing everyone BUT us, and then use the comparative differential to see both how Andy performed against those teams relative to other QBs – and how that difference might project against the future teams we play.

 

Procedurally speaking, I got my stats from NFL.com.  I recorded teams’ to-date performance, Andy’s performance, and then I looked at their performance if you wiped our game from the books (and yes, I accounted for the differences in numbers of games played for the given teams (7 vs. 8)).  I then took their averages and compared how Andy performed.  Next, I got a ratio that showed how much better or worse Andy fared against each given opponent than the other QB’s they faced.  I used these to create projections of how we might expect him to perform against the upcoming teams (and yes, I had to remove Andy from consideration when accounting for the games we already played against CLE and PITT.

 

And FINALLY, just for shits and giggles, I took a look at what Andy’s numbers would be like if we projected the last four games’ performances, relative to how those four opponents have played everyone else, over the next 8 games.

 

Phew. I know this all sounds totally confusing but there were some FASCINATING  results from the exercise.  (there are a few figures that are SLIGHTLY off due to rounding/averages).

 

Drum-roll Please…!

 

First, for the games we’ve already played:

 

YARDS

Opposing QB’s averaged 238.45 per game against the teams we played.

Andy Averaged 281.13 yards against those teams.

 

Teams opp QBs  averaged 59.1% completion

Andy Averaged 65.6 against those teams

 

Teams gave up an average of 1.5 TDs per game against everyone but us.

Andy averaged 2 TD’s per game against those teams.

 

Teams averaged .93 INTs per game against everyone but us.

Andy averaged .875 INTs per game against those teams.

 

Teams averaged 2.63 sacks per game against everyone but us.

Andy was sacked 2 times per game against those teams.

 

Teams Opponent QB rating (traditional version) was 83.4 against everyone else.

Andy’s QB rating was 98.9 against those teams.

 

Now, if we take how Andy performed, on average, versus those teams, and apply it toward how our upcoming opponents have performed, some interesting things emerge.  Keep in mind that these opponents are qualitatively different from who we’ve played (except for Pitt and Cle, obviously):

 

Our upcoming opponents have allowed:

 

236.8 yards per game.

62.14% completions

1.633 TDs per game

.86 INTs per game

3.24 Sacks per game

88.89 QB rating

 

So looking forward, considering the average teams we have played versus those we will face, the upcoming teams allow virtually the same Passing yards, more TD’s, get fewer INTs, more sacks, and allow a higher QB rating.

 

1.18x more yards = 279.2 per game = 2234 yards

1.11x better comp % = 69%

1.34x more TDs = 2.18 per game = 17.46 TDs.

.94x INTs = .81 per game =  6.46 INTs to go. 

.76x Sacks = 2.55 per game = 20.4 remaining (because they have much higher sack #s)

1.18x QB rating = 105.38 for the rest of the season.

 

His season totals would equal:

 

4483 yards

67.8 %

33-34 TDs

13-14 INTs

36-37 Sacks

102.1 QB rating

 

Now, for fun, let’s look and see what happens if we make the same comparative analysis, but just base it on his last four games.  Over the next 8 games he would achieve:

 

310.1 yards per game = 2481

2.51 TDs per game for 20 more TDS

.57 INTs per game for 4.5 more

2.55 Sacks for 20 more

125.31 QB rating

 

For the season that would total:

4730 Yards

36 TDs

11-12 INTs

36 Sacks

112.2 QB rating

 

Something very interesting emerges here.  These last numbers are so high because, even though Andy played lights out the last four games, those performances came against teams against whom other QB’s played significantly worse than against other teams. That is, he put the beat down on teams that were really hampering QB’s, so if you project that kind of relative difference forward he just crushes it.

 

Of course, that’s a very rosy scenario, and not one I think he will reasonably achieve.  But it does give some interesting insight.  I actually did the spreadsheets and so have numbers for each of our historical opponents as well as projections for our upcoming ones. 

 

So how is he projected to do tomorrow against Miami?

 

Last 8 game projection:

67.3%

289 yards

2TDs

1.25 INT’s

2.5 Sacks

95.9 rating

 

Last 4 game projection:

72.6%

321 yards

2.5 TDs

.88 INTs

2.6 Sacks

114 .1 rating

 

Obviously, this is just all statistical and football isn’t a game that abides by such predictions, but this was a fun exercise that showed me a number of things.

 

1. On the balance, Andy has performed FAR better than other QB’s against the same competition this year.
2. Our upcoming games face teams who are relatively weaker against the pass than those we’ve faced, though they do bring more pressure.
3. Andy’s recent 4 game stint has not only not been a fluke, it’s been against opponents who have been relatively MUCH more difficult for the QBs they face.
4. Andy has already unquestionably taken the leap many of us were hoping for, and, if the Cleveland game truly marks a turning point, he could be in for a spectacular season.
5. I should go lay down some player prop bets!

[bengals4ever]

 

In part because I was curious, in part because I wanted to waste some time, and in part because I wanted to counter-argue a lot of the bad stats I see out there, and lastly because I was curious about his projections because of this thread, I wondered what would happen if I isolated Andy Dalton’s stats, looked at how teams performed when playing everyone BUT us, and then use the comparative differential to see both how Andy performed against those teams relative to other QBs – and how that difference might project against the future teams we play.

 

Procedurally speaking, I got my stats from NFL.com.  I recorded teams’ to-date performance, Andy’s performance, and then I looked at their performance if you wiped our game from the books (and yes, I accounted for the differences in numbers of games played for the given teams (7 vs. 8)).  I then took their averages and compared how Andy performed.  Next, I got a ratio that showed how much better or worse Andy fared against each given opponent than the other QB’s they faced.  I used these to create projections of how we might expect him to perform against the upcoming teams (and yes, I had to remove Andy from consideration when accounting for the games we already played against CLE and PITT.

 

And FINALLY, just for shits and giggles, I took a look at what Andy’s numbers would be like if we projected the last four games’ performances, relative to how those four opponents have played everyone else, over the next 8 games.

 

Phew. I know this all sounds totally confusing but there were some FASCINATING  results from the exercise.  (there are a few figures that are SLIGHTLY off due to rounding/averages).

 

Drum-roll Please…!

 

First, for the games we’ve already played:

 

YARDS

Opposing QB’s averaged 238.45 per game against the teams we played.

Andy Averaged 281.13 yards against those teams.

 

Teams opp QBs  averaged 59.1% completion

Andy Averaged 65.6 against those teams

 

Teams gave up an average of 1.5 TDs per game against everyone but us.

Andy averaged 2 TD’s per game against those teams.

 

Teams averaged .93 INTs per game against everyone but us.

Andy averaged .875 INTs per game against those teams.

 

Teams averaged 2.63 sacks per game against everyone but us.

Andy was sacked 2 times per game against those teams.

 

Teams Opponent QB rating (traditional version) was 83.4 against everyone else.

Andy’s QB rating was 98.9 against those teams.

 

Now, if we take how Andy performed, on average, versus those teams, and apply it toward how our upcoming opponents have performed, some interesting things emerge.  Keep in mind that these opponents are qualitatively different from who we’ve played (except for Pitt and Cle, obviously):

 

Our upcoming opponents have allowed:

 

236.8 yards per game.

62.14% completions

1.633 TDs per game

.86 INTs per game

3.24 Sacks per game

88.89 QB rating

 

So looking forward, considering the average teams we have played versus those we will face, the upcoming teams allow virtually the same Passing yards, more TD’s, get fewer INTs, more sacks, and allow a higher QB rating.

 

1.18x more yards = 279.2 per game = 2234 yards

1.11x better comp % = 69%

1.34x more TDs = 2.18 per game = 17.46 TDs.

.94x INTs = .81 per game =  6.46 INTs to go. 

.76x Sacks = 2.55 per game = 20.4 remaining (because they have much higher sack #s)

1.18x QB rating = 105.38 for the rest of the season.

 

His season totals would equal:

 

4483 yards

67.8 %

33-34 TDs

13-14 INTs

36-37 Sacks

102.1 QB rating

 

Now, for fun, let’s look and see what happens if we make the same comparative analysis, but just base it on his last four games.  Over the next 8 games he would achieve:

 

310.1 yards per game = 2481

2.51 TDs per game for 20 more TDS

.57 INTs per game for 4.5 more

2.55 Sacks for 20 more

125.31 QB rating

 

For the season that would total:

4730 Yards

36 TDs

11-12 INTs

36 Sacks

112.2 QB rating

 

Something very interesting emerges here.  These last numbers are so high because, even though Andy played lights out the last four games, those performances came against teams against whom other QB’s played significantly worse than against other teams. That is, he put the beat down on teams that were really hampering QB’s, so if you project that kind of relative difference forward he just crushes it.

 

Of course, that’s a very rosy scenario, and not one I think he will reasonably achieve.  But it does give some interesting insight.  I actually did the spreadsheets and so have numbers for each of our historical opponents as well as projections for our upcoming ones. 

 

So how is he projected to do tomorrow against Miami?

 

Last 8 game projection:

67.3%

289 yards

2TDs

1.25 INT’s

2.5 Sacks

95.9 rating

 

Last 4 game projection:

72.6%

321 yards

2.5 TDs

.88 INTs

2.6 Sacks

114 .1 rating

 

Obviously, this is just all statistical and football isn’t a game that abides by such predictions, but this was a fun exercise that showed me a number of things.

 

1. On the balance, Andy has performed FAR better than other QB’s against the same competition this year.
2. Our upcoming games face teams who are relatively weaker against the pass than those we’ve faced, though they do bring more pressure.
3. Andy’s recent 4 game stint has not only not been a fluke, it’s been against opponents who have been relatively MUCH more difficult for the QBs they face.
4. Andy has already unquestionably taken the leap many of us were hoping for, and, if the Cleveland game truly marks a turning point, he could be in for a spectacular season.
5. I should go lay down some player prop bets!

 

 

 

Can we pin this post to the top of the forum as the 'end to the Dalton debate' ???

[|kennethmw|]

In part because I was curious, in part because I wanted to waste some time, and in part because I wanted to counter-argue a lot of the bad stats I see out there, and lastly because I was curious about his projections because of this thread, I wondered what would happen if I isolated Andy Dalton’s stats, looked at how teams performed when playing everyone BUT us, and then use the comparative differential to see both how Andy performed against those teams relative to other QBs – and how that difference might project against the future teams we play.
 
Procedurally speaking, I got my stats from NFL.com.  I recorded teams’ to-date performance, Andy’s performance, and then I looked at their performance if you wiped our game from the books (and yes, I accounted for the differences in numbers of games played for the given teams (7 vs. 8)).  I then took their averages and compared how Andy performed.  Next, I got a ratio that showed how much better or worse Andy fared against each given opponent than the other QB’s they faced.  I used these to create projections of how we might expect him to perform against the upcoming teams (and yes, I had to remove Andy from consideration when accounting for the games we already played against CLE and PITT.
 
And FINALLY, just for shits and giggles, I took a look at what Andy’s numbers would be like if we projected the last four games’ performances, relative to how those four opponents have played everyone else, over the next 8 games.
 
Phew. I know this all sounds totally confusing but there were some FASCINATING  results from the exercise.  (there are a few figures that are SLIGHTLY off due to rounding/averages).
 
Drum-roll Please…!
 
First, for the games we’ve already played:
 
YARDS
Opposing QB’s averaged 238.45 per game against the teams we played.
Andy Averaged 281.13 yards against those teams.
 
Teams opp QBs  averaged 59.1% completion
Andy Averaged 65.6 against those teams
 
Teams gave up an average of 1.5 TDs per game against everyone but us.
Andy averaged 2 TD’s per game against those teams.
 
Teams averaged .93 INTs per game against everyone but us.
Andy averaged .875 INTs per game against those teams.
 
Teams averaged 2.63 sacks per game against everyone but us.
Andy was sacked 2 times per game against those teams.
 
Teams Opponent QB rating (traditional version) was 83.4 against everyone else.
Andy’s QB rating was 98.9 against those teams.
 
Now, if we take how Andy performed, on average, versus those teams, and apply it toward how our upcoming opponents have performed, some interesting things emerge.  Keep in mind that these opponents are qualitatively different from who we’ve played (except for Pitt and Cle, obviously):
 
Our upcoming opponents have allowed:
 
236.8 yards per game.
62.14% completions
1.633 TDs per game
.86 INTs per game
3.24 Sacks per game
88.89 QB rating
 
So looking forward, considering the average teams we have played versus those we will face, the upcoming teams allow virtually the same Passing yards, more TD’s, get fewer INTs, more sacks, and allow a higher QB rating.
 
1.18x more yards = 279.2 per game = 2234 yards
1.11x better comp % = 69%
1.34x more TDs = 2.18 per game = 17.46 TDs.
.94x INTs = .81 per game =  6.46 INTs to go. 
.76x Sacks = 2.55 per game = 20.4 remaining (because they have much higher sack #s)
1.18x QB rating = 105.38 for the rest of the season.
 
His season totals would equal:
 
4483 yards
67.8 %
33-34 TDs
13-14 INTs
36-37 Sacks
102.1 QB rating
 
Now, for fun, let’s look and see what happens if we make the same comparative analysis, but just base it on his last four games.  Over the next 8 games he would achieve:
 
310.1 yards per game = 2481
2.51 TDs per game for 20 more TDS
.57 INTs per game for 4.5 more
2.55 Sacks for 20 more
125.31 QB rating
 
For the season that would total:
4730 Yards
36 TDs
11-12 INTs
36 Sacks
112.2 QB rating
 
Something very interesting emerges here.  These last numbers are so high because, even though Andy played lights out the last four games, those performances came against teams against whom other QB’s played significantly worse than against other teams. That is, he put the beat down on teams that were really hampering QB’s, so if you project that kind of relative difference forward he just crushes it.
 
Of course, that’s a very rosy scenario, and not one I think he will reasonably achieve.  But it does give some interesting insight.  I actually did the spreadsheets and so have numbers for each of our historical opponents as well as projections for our upcoming ones. 
 
So how is he projected to do tomorrow against Miami?
 
Last 8 game projection:
67.3%
289 yards
2TDs
1.25 INT’s
2.5 Sacks
95.9 rating
 
Last 4 game projection:
72.6%
321 yards
2.5 TDs
.88 INTs
2.6 Sacks
114 .1 rating
 
Obviously, this is just all statistical and football isn’t a game that abides by such predictions, but this was a fun exercise that showed me a number of things.
 

• On the balance, Andy has performed FAR better than other QB’s against the same competition this year.
• Our upcoming games face teams who are relatively weaker against the pass than those we’ve faced, though they do bring more pressure.
• Andy’s recent 4 game stint has not only not been a fluke, it’s been against opponents who have been relatively MUCH more difficult for the QBs they face.
• Andy has already unquestionably taken the leap many of us were hoping for, and, if the Cleveland game truly marks a turning point, he could be in for a spectacular season.
• I should go lay down some player prop bets!

Pretty good work there, bro.

[BengalsRZ]

very interesting, great work alleycat!

[alleycat]

Pretty good work there, bro.

 

 

very interesting, great work alleycat!

 

Thanks. It was actually fun (and scratched my OCD itch).

[Khatmandude]

 

 

Can we pin this post to the top of the forum as the 'end to the Dalton debate' ???

 

Yes, but first we have to get every other QB to play with Dalton's cast and then re-do the numbers.   Yes, it should be pinned....if your mentally simple. 

 

Again, while these numbers are fun to look at and I'm sure alleycat had a blast putting them together, they're so meaningless it's not funny.   In order for them to be meaningful all the other QB's would have had to play with the same personnel that the Bengals have.....which by most accounts is one of the, if not the most, talented rosters in football.   In addition, coaching, schemes etc... would all have to have been exactly the same. 

 

But sure, if you want to grasp at anything and everything to solidify your position on Dalton, go ahead and pin the post.   Not an attack on alleycat, he put in effort for his personal amusement.  

[alleycat]

 

Yes, but first we have to get every other QB to play with Dalton's cast and then re-do the numbers.   Yes, it should be pinned....if your mentally simple. 

 

Again, while these numbers are fun to look at and I'm sure alleycat had a blast putting them together, they're so meaningless it's not funny.   In order for them to be meaningful all the other QB's would have had to play with the same personnel that the Bengals have.....which by most accounts is one of the, if not the most, talented rosters in football.   In addition, coaching, schemes etc... would all have to have been exactly the same. 

 

But sure, if you want to grasp at anything and everything to solidify your position on Dalton, go ahead and pin the post.   Not an attack on alleycat, he put in effort for his personal amusement.  

 

Yes, but by your logic Dalton can simply never win.  Which seems to be squarely where you want him.

 

If you can step away from your bias for a minute, you'd see that throughout history the great QB's also had great surrounding casts.  Which came first, the chicken or the egg?  Neither. Or both.  Point is, one is part and parcel of the other.

 

Marino had Duper and Clayton and Morris.

Montana had Rice and Taylor and Clark and Craig.

Aikman had Smith and Irvin and Novacek

Kurt Warner, Payton Manning, and on and on and on...

Not only did these guys have good skill players, but they also had great O-Lines and decent Defenses.

 

And yet, when it comes to Andy Dalton, you want to deny him the very same supporting cast that he has, because that's the only way you can continue to undermine his plainly impressive results.

 

You are a hater, and there's no other objective way to paint it.

 

No go look in the mirror and ask yourself:  did you grow up wanting to be that guy?

[HairOnFire]

 

Yes, but first we have to get every other QB to play with Dalton's cast and then re-do the numbers. 

 

But how much did Dalton's cast help him down the stretch last season?

 

The fact remains that Dalton's cast, while obviously talented, are all as young and inexperienced as he is, and each has had growing pains that have impacted Dalton's play.

 

And that goes for the OC calling the shots as well.

 

Myself, I'm not a stat guy because they only tell you where you've been, at best. And statistical projections only hint at where you're going if everything stays the same, which of course they never do.

 

That said, your eyes should be enough to tell you Dalton is a damn fine QB whose limitations can be overcome by good coaching and a supporting cast that does their job well. And without those things the Bengals aren't going to win many games no matter how well he plays.

[Khatmandude]

I just looked in the mirror......I need a haircut but aside from that  I like the guy I see....kinda handsome fella.  In shape.  Yeah, I like what I see. 

 

Instead of frothing at the mouth in a moment to appease the circlejerk crew here, you should have read my post and absorbed it before replying.   I'm not going to call you names and all that, my post simply stated that in order for those numbers to have meaning, the situations would have to be the same for all the QB's you compared.   There's nothing untruthful about it or am I being a "hater".   Objectively paint it how you want brosef.....it effects me none. 

 

I'm not trying to undermine his plainly impressive results either.   Hell, I called him baby Manning.  He's playing probably top 5 QB in the NFL this year overall......But if it makes you feel better and popular with the crowd here, go on ahead and think what you want.  Call me what you want.   It will get you lots of green numbers!  

[WRAPradio]

 

 

 

Thanks. It was actually fun (and scratched my OCD itch).

 

 

Good, interesting stuff.

[Gary]

One word.... Weather... His stats will fall off a bit from the pace they are on now.

 

I can imagine about 85% of what his pace is now is what he ends up with.

[Khatmandude]

 

But how much did Dalton's cast help him down the stretch last season?

 

The fact remains that Dalton's cast, while obviously talented, are all as young and inexperienced as he is, and each has had growing pains that have impacted Dalton's play.

 

And that goes for the OC calling the shots as well.

 

Myself, I'm not a stat guy because they only tell you where you've been, at best. And statistical projections only hint at where you're going if everything stays the same, which of course they never do.

 

That said, your eyes should be enough to tell you Dalton is a damn fine QB whose limitations can be overcome by good coaching and a supporting cast that does their job well. And without those things the Bengals aren't going to win many games no matter how well he plays.

 

I agree with your whole post. 

 

My contention was simply with the poster who said that alleycat's post should be pinned to "prove" to all the Dalton haters once and for all.   You can't create the situation that was created by alleycat and give it meaning.  It's all fantasy land stats and make believe scenarios that can't be realistically analyzed.   That's it.  Then alleycat got all butthurt.   I actually liked his post and made it a point to say that I wasn't attacking what he did.  Just that it can't really be looked at with any meaning whatsoever. 

 

I love stats, but am not a stats guy either.  They rarely if ever tell the story.  

[alleycat]

I just looked in the mirror......I need a haircut but aside from that  I like the guy I see....kinda handsome fella.  In shape.  Yeah, I like what I see. 

 

Instead of frothing at the mouth in a moment to appease the circlejerk crew here, you should have read my post and absorbed it before replying.   I'm not going to call you names and all that, my post simply stated that in order for those numbers to have meaning, the situations would have to be the same for all the QB's you compared.   There's nothing untruthful about it or am I being a "hater".   Objectively paint it how you want brosef.....it effects me none. 

 

I'm not trying to undermine his plainly impressive results either.   Hell, I called him baby Manning.  He's playing probably top 5 QB in the NFL this year overall......But if it makes you feel better and popular with the crowd here, go on ahead and think what you want.  Call me what you want.   It will get you lots of green numbers!  

 

Yeah, that's me: trying to be popular here by playing to the crowd lol.

 

I'm not trying to appease anyone.  I'm trying to show YOU that when Dalton doesn't do well, you blame it on him, and when he does, you negate it by attributing that success to his supporting cast, and then suggesting in the same breath that a better QB would do better - while all-the while simultaneously defending yourself that we'll never really know because all of this is hypothetical.

 

I look at it completely differently.  Up through the Cleveland game I regularly asserted that until Dalton started getting some better protection, we couldn't really judge him.  He was getting harried and hurried and was seeing some very tight pockets.  The Offensive line called themselves out after that, and have since then been giving him some serious space and time.  And low and behold, Andy has himself a Offensive Player of the Month to show for it.  Now that his supporting cast is performing as it should, we're getting to see what he can do.  And I still don't think we've seen the half of it.

[alleycat]

 

I love stats, but am not a stats guy either.  They rarely if ever tell the story.  

 

Yup, and I said the same thing about stats in my breakdown.  In fact, I have a long history on here of talking about seeing with my eyes instead of relying on anything else to tell me how a player is doing.

 

Andy is passing the eyeball test with flying colors.

[Khatmandude]

 

Yeah, that's me: trying to be popular here by playing to the crowd lol.

 

I'm not trying to appease anyone.  I'm trying to show YOU that when Dalton doesn't do well, you blame it on him, and when he does, you negate it by attributing that success to his supporting cast, and then suggesting in the same breath that a better QB would do better - while all-the while simultaneously defending yourself that we'll never really know because all of this is hypothetical.

 

I look at it completely differently.  Up through the Cleveland game I regularly asserted that until Dalton started getting some better protection, we couldn't really judge him.  He was getting harried and hurried and was seeing some very tight pockets.  The Offensive line called themselves out after that, and have since then been giving him some serious space and time.  And low and behold, Andy has himself a Offensive Player of the Month to show for it.  Now that his supporting cast is performing as it should, we're getting to see what he can do.  And I still don't think we've seen the half of it.

 

Pls find where I've negated Dalton's success by attributing it to his supporting cast.  EVER.  I've always given Dalton his due when he's played well.  Always.  As disappointing as it may be to you, I'm far from a hater.   Even my original post in this thread didn't do that...at all...it simply FACTORED into the fantasy scenario you came up with other things that confound your results to the point of being irrelevant.   Actually the only reason I even replied was that dude wanting it to be pinned to be the end all be all in the Dalton debate.   I'm sorry if I hurt your feelings by saying your post was meaningless.   That's not what I meant. 

[alleycat]

 

Pls find where I've negated Dalton's success by attributing it to his supporting cast.  EVER.

 

Sure.

 

 

Yes, but first we have to get every other QB to play with Dalton's cast and then re-do the numbers.

 

 

Given your ongoing monotonous yet slightly hysterical Dalton ranting, the subtext of what you were saying was loud and clear.  We can't judge Dalton's performance against these teams compared to other QB's because they don't have Dalton's supporting cast. 

 

But you could say the same thing about every QB who has every played the game, and at some point averages do add up.  That's where averages have their power.  On the whole, Andy's team has performed better.  It's no small coincidence that they have performed markedly better when he has (and I might add worse when he did too - no single factor better predicted loss than Andy Dalton turnovers).  So goes a QB, so goes his team. And vice versa.

 

Do we also malign the HOF QB's I listed earlier or question whether they would have been successful with a different supporting cast? Nope.  Why? Because their results, and their body of work -- often compared to others -- is what sets them apart. And you can't just take that away by throwing out some truism like, "yeah, but we can't really judge what these guys would be like without the rest of their teams."  Duh. Of course we couldn't.  Which is why we don't bother.

 

Your efforts to do so, therefore, can only be seen for what it is: part of your ongoing attempt to denigrate Dalton. In a vacuum, I may believe otherwise, but your incessant not-funny Dalton sarcasm makes that very hard to do.

[WRAPradio]

 

Yeah, that's me: trying to be popular here by playing to the crowd lol.

 

I'm not trying to appease anyone.  I'm trying to show YOU that when Dalton doesn't do well, you blame it on him, and when he does, you negate it by attributing that success to his supporting cast, and then suggesting in the same breath that a better QB would do better - while all-the while simultaneously defending yourself that we'll never really know because all of this is hypothetical.

 

I look at it completely differently.  Up through the Cleveland game I regularly asserted that until Dalton started getting some better protection, we couldn't really judge him.  He was getting harried and hurried and was seeing some very tight pockets.  The Offensive line called themselves out after that, and have since then been giving him some serious space and time.  And low and behold, Andy has himself a Offensive Player of the Month to show for it.  Now that his supporting cast is performing as it should, we're getting to see what he can do.  And I still don't think we've seen the half of it.

 

 

Every QB gets judged on what they have...if a QB goes through their career with a bad line, they're still judged on what they did.  You can't only choose to only judge a QB when he gets good protection b/c every QB would be great if we did that.  Earlier this year a lot of us were saying Sam Bradford was terrible and his line is worse than anything the Bengals have had this decade.

[alleycat]

 

 

Every QB gets judged on what they have...if a QB goes through their career with a bad line, they're still judged on what they did.  You can't only choose to only judge a QB when he gets good protection b/c every QB would be great if we did that.  Earlier this year a lot of us were saying Sam Bradford was terrible and his line is worse than anything the Bengals have had this decade.

 

That's my whole point.  Tom Brady looked like shit against us, didn't get a TD, sacked all over the place, and got a 55 passer rating, in large part because he got abused in the pocket.  You get good days and bad days, which is why you can't look at anything in isolation.  You can, however, see overall larger trends and tendencies.  Cleveland was a very good defense against which the whole team performed poorly.  We've subsequently played even better defenses and performed wonderfully well.  My whole look at the statistics was simply showing that, on the balance, Andy has actually done BETTER against the competition than other QBs.

 

But you can't overlook the fact that it's a team sport. And I think, one of the ways a QB shows up outside of the stats is how they can marshal the troops to perform their best around them.  I'd like to think the way this team is gelling is in part an outgrowth of Dalton's growing confidence, and perhaps even his rising to the occasion that Adam Jones called out for just a few weeks ago: "become more of a vocal leader."

 

(I'm wondering if the recent revelation that AD has starting spending a lot of personal time with his backs, WRs, and TE's isn't part of that)

 

Still, what I'm most interested in seeing was what Tiger Woods said in that brilliant piece on Jay Gruden in another thread:

 

"What separates the great from the very good?" interviewer Ed Bradley asks. "You're able to repeat it," Woods says. "Again and again and again."

 

Tonight won't determine the future.  But it will tell us something.