Jump to content

Recommended Posts

This running back class has often gotten the reputation of being relatively weak at the top. While that might be true, from a metrics standpoint there are a slew of interesting players to analyze from scat backs that play like bruisers to big backs that don’t play as powerfully as they should. When breaking down running backs, whether it is on film or analytically, it’s often hard to separate performance from their offensive line. By narrowing the scope of the metrics to focus on small segments of play, we can at least try to remove as much of that as possible. Of course, it’ll never be able to control completely for line play, so use these numbers as a complement to film study rather than a hard and fast ranking.

 

I hand charted every game for each running back. There are some categories that are a bit more subjective, such as broken tackles – but the same methodology has been applied to each RB. Stats like YPC and % of runs by distance may vary slightly from play-by-play data which sometimes may contain information that doesn’t match up with what’s on tape.

 

 

How did they generate extra yardage?

 

Extra Yd represents an aggregate score combining yards after contact capped for 15 yards and broken tackles as a function of total carries. The score is capped at 100 and an average score is around a 65.

 

zzzXAxp.jpg

 

Carlos Hyde narrowly grabs the top extra yardage score among the first group of RBs and the entire class. His yards after contact of 3.48 is by far the highest in the group, showing that he plays like the bigger back he is.

 

- Coming in just behind Hyde in the rankings is Jeremy Hill. Breaking tackles on 8.59% of his carries, he leads the entire class in the amount of broken tackles. In addition, he also posted a strong 2.93 yards after contact. It seems obvious to expect the big RBs to lead these categories, but that’s not always the case; Gio Bernard and Johnathan Franklin were leaders in this category in the 2012 draft class. High rankings for Hyde and Hill are just testaments to how hard they run.

 

- A lack of broken tackles, nearly half the amount as Jeremy Hill, really hurts Bishop Sankey. Despite coming in at a reasonable weight of 209lbs at the combine and being billed as an all-around back, Sankey’s extra yardage numbers are poor. For some reason he doesn’t seem to have quite the same ability to drive through contact as the others.

 

- The real surprise of the group comes when looking at Lache Seastrunk. While he comes across as a scat back, Seastrunk’s elusiveness isn’t limited to making guys miss in the open field. He broke tackles at a similar rate toJeremy Hill. These numbers are similar to what we saw from Gio Bernard where both backs just seemed to shrug off tackles to gain extra yardage.

 

 

Where did they run?

 

The chart below represents both the yards per carry gained on outside and inside runs. In addition, it shows how often they did so as a percentage of their total runs.

 

562NZGf.jpg  

- While only doing so on 39% of his total attempts, Carlos Hyde averaged an incredible 9.29 yards when running off tackle. It’s easy to question a bigger backs’ ability to bounce it outside when necessary, but Hyde clearly shows the ability to get to the edge. In addition, he averaged a very respectable 6.3 yards running up the gut.

 

- Hill was the only RB to average a higher yards per carry on inside runs than outside, showing that his reputation as a strong runner was well earned. I personally had questioned his ability to successfully run outside, but he proved he was adept at doing so by averaging 6.3 YPC. While that’s a respectable YPC, it should still bear monitoring that he was the only one to do worse outside than inside.

 

- With the lowest YPC on inside runs, Tre Mason averaged a slightly concerning 4.83 yards. If we’re looking for a possible explanation, Mason faced a stacked box far more than other RBs (we’ll get to that more later) facing one more defender than he had blockers 44% of the time.

 

- Again, Seastrunk’s metrics come across as counterintuitive to what might be expected of him. He ran between the tackles 62% of the time which is more than anyone in the first group. Some may claim poor vision led him inside, but he averaged a very positive and productive 6.44 yards per carry.

 

 

What defenses did the face?

 

In charting each play I counted the number of blockers and personnel in the box at the beginning of each play. In doing so, we can create a ‘blocker differential’ or how many defenders there are compared to blockers. In the chart below, -1 represents one more defender in the box than blocker, 0 represents an even number of defenders and blockers, and so on. The values for each category are YPC. If there were not enough carries for the differential, they were left blank.

 

1FQxzwM.jpg  

- Although it’s hard to compare when two of the five backs are missing data for a -2 differential, Hyde’s jump from averaging 2.5 yards to 6.78 yards with one less defender is certainly noticeable. There’s a bit of divergence in all of Hyde’s metrics – one on hand he generated excellent extra yardage but on the other hand he didn’t fare well against stacked boxes or in short yardage situations. It raises questions about which part of his game will translate to the NFL.

 

- Hill was very consistent when faced with -1 and 0 differentials averaging around 7.2 YPC, but somehow dropped when he had an extra blocker. Based on the data, we’d expect it to go up but it’s likely an anomaly.

 

- Similarly, Tre Mason’s YPC among the various blocker differentials doesn’t make a ton of sense. Even controlling for long runs, different field position and situations – there doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason for why Mason would run better against boxes with an extra defender and one less defender. He did face -1 defenders 44% of the time, near the highest in the class, so his average of 6.5 yards is positive.

 

- Here’s maybe the biggest concern with Lache Seastrunk, his ability to run against heavier front. As would be expected, Baylor’s offense spread out the defense so Seastrunk was often running against nickel fronts. When facing one more defender than blocker, he only averaged 4.76 yards per carry while averaging 8.32 with one less defender. Can he run when defenses are stacking the box in the NFL?

 

 

How did they do in short yardage situations?

 

The chart below represents two short yardage situations. 3rd Down % is the rate at which the RB converted 3rd and short situations. Goal to go is the yards per carry in goal line situations.

 

4GNlzxd.jpg  

Carlos Hyde, despite very positive stats in the extra yardage and inside categories, was just so-so in short yardage situation. He converted 75% of third and short situations and gained an average 2.7 yards per carry on goal to go runs.

 

- Meanwhile, Jeremy Hill showed off the skills in short yardage that would be expected for a power back. He converted third and short approximately 86% of the time while powering for a group leading 3.53 yards in goal line situations.

 

- Showing off that he has some short yardage ability despite his size, Tre Mason converted 92% of his third and short situations on a non-insignificant amount of attempts. That number leads the entire group of running backs and would be hard to beat. In addition he averaged a good 3.06 yards in goal to go situations. While his elusive metrics weren’t off the charts like they had been in 2012, this shows he has some power.

 

- In line with his earlier metrics, Sankey struggled a bit in both third and short situations and goal to go yardage. If you’re going back to look at Sankey, make sure you check out his ability in situations where he has to generate power.

 

 

Runs by yards per carry

 

I won’t comment on this chart, but it shows the percentage of runs by yardage gained. It should give you a feel for whether a back was getting stopped short often or breaking off solid long runs regularly. It’s a bit less pronounced with this group, but in the second group we’ll see backs with much higher percentages of short runs.

 

ZLjHqh7.jpg  

That’s the extent of this piece on the first group of running backs. I didn’t have the ability to comment extensively on the final chart, but will tweet thoughts out and extra stats on Twitter @NU_Gap. Thanks for reading.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46396/349/peshek-rb-metrics-10

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cool article, thanks. I would be happy with any of those 5 backs on the Bengals. Hill was a guy who I had mentioned as a great fit a couple months ago when he was projected to go in the 4th or 5th round due to some character concerns. However, it appears as though maybe he has moved up a little bit in terms of where people think he will be drafted.

 

Because Gio is so good and the RB class is so deep, the 3rd to 5th round kind of seems like the sweet spot for us to add a young power back.

 

It would be really nice to fill at least 1 or 2 of the bigger needs (OL, DE, CB) in free agency. That would free us up to be able to make a couple "luxury" picks in the mid-rounds on some skill positions offensive guys. QB, RB, maybe even WR and TE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cool article, thanks. I would be happy with any of those 5 backs on the Bengals. Hill was a guy who I had mentioned as a great fit a couple months ago when he was projected to go in the 4th or 5th round due to some character concerns. However, it appears as though maybe he has moved up a little bit in terms of where people think he will be drafted.

 

Because Gio is so good and the RB class is so deep, the 3rd to 5th round kind of seems like the sweet spot for us to add a young power back.

 

It would be really nice to fill at least 1 or 2 of the bigger needs (OL, DE, CB) in free agency. That would free us up to be able to make a couple "luxury" picks in the mid-rounds on some skill positions offensive guys. QB, RB, maybe even WR and TE.

 

 

the Bengals 3rd rounder seems to be the sweet spot.  They'd lose out on Hyde there, but every other power back will probably be there.

 

About 55-120 seems to be the sweet spot for RB's this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

the Bengals 3rd rounder seems to be the sweet spot.  They'd lose out on Hyde there, but every other power back will probably be there.

 

About 55-120 seems to be the sweet spot for RB's this year.

 

Yeah, should be some good ones.

 

If we go for one as early as the 3rd, it might make BJGE expendable which would open up an extra $3M to address other needs in FA or to put towards extensions for Vontaze, AJ and company.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tre Mason has a certain amount of intrigue for me.  Any back with that kind of 3rd down percentage has my attention.  Knocks on him are that he is not big in weight or height.  Using him in a limited capacity would certainly alleviate any concerns over durability but would we want to spend a 2nd on him ?  Don't see him going in the 3rd.

 

1181;  Nice article.  Thanks for sharing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tre Mason has a certain amount of intrigue for me.  Any back with that kind of 3rd down percentage has my attention.  Knocks on him are that he is not big in weight or height.  Using him in a limited capacity would certainly alleviate any concerns over durability but would we want to spend a 2nd on him ?  Don't see him going in the 3rd.

 

1181;  Nice article.  Thanks for sharing.

 

 

IMO Mason and Hyde are at the top of the heap (take your pick on if you want a bell cow or speedster).  Probably the only two guys who have a chance of going in the top 50.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

- The real surprise of the group comes when looking at Lache Seastrunk. While he comes across as a scat back, Seastrunk’s elusiveness isn’t limited to making guys miss in the open field. He broke tackles at a similar rate toJeremy Hill. These numbers are similar to what we saw from Gio Bernard where both backs just seemed to shrug off tackles to gain extra yardage.

 

Paging EmDiggy... Paging EmDiggy.....

 

Would EmDiggy please come to the office to explain himself?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd like to see how Gaffney compared.

 

From Hobson's offense article though it seemed like they may be looking for another speed guy at RB (and WR).

 

I didn't read the Hobson article, as I've begun to find them just too tiring over time, but the idea that we may be looking for a speed RB jives what I was arguing for after the season.  We have a BJGE replacement on the team already, in Rex Burkhead.  What we don't have is someone to play in the event that Gio goes down - and this offense clearly has another dimension using that kind of player in the run/pass game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

I didn't read the Hobson article, as I've begun to find them just too tiring over time, but the idea that we may be looking for a speed RB jives what I was arguing for after the season.  We have a BJGE replacement on the team already, in Rex Burkhead.  What we don't have is someone to play in the event that Gio goes down - and this offense clearly has another dimension using that kind of player in the run/pass game.

 

 

another thing to consider, is that Gio isn't a speed guy.  Gio is a make you miss guy, he's not a "blink and he's gone" guy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going to see if I can find anything on Jerick McKinnon tonight.  He might be an interesting Saturday option at RB.

Did you watch his video? I couldn't really get by his running style. He didn't seem like a RB to me at all. Not saying he can't do it, just that my eye could not wrap myself around it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Did you watch his video? I couldn't really get by his running style. He didn't seem like a RB to me at all. Not saying he can't do it, just that my eye could not wrap myself around it. 

 

Have not seen anything on him yet.

 

Technique can be coached.  

 

His physical tools cannot.

 

I guess the question is does he have vision and balance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd like to see how Gaffney compared.
 
From Hobson's offense article though it seemed like they may be looking for another speed guy at RB (and WR).


Didn't Gaffney run in the 4.4s at the combine? I didn't see his official, but I know his hand time on NFL Network was 4.47 or something.

I would think that ideally you could get a guy who is bigger than Gio but who also has some game breaking speed and who is at least competent as a receiver. Gaffney may fit the bill as a later round guy though I'm not sure if he plays like a 4.4 guy.

BJGE is a great locker room leader, but I don't see how they can bring him back and give him 200 touches again. He is just too slow now and brings nothing as a receiver. This is a case where the Bengals loyalty to players is somewhat admirable, but I think if they really care about winning, they need to cut him and invest his $3M elsewhere and find a better RB to take his spot. I just can't get that image of him driving around in a golf cart with Mike brown out of my head though....BJGE just seems like another of those guys that the bengals will end up keeping a year or 2 too long because Mike likes him and he is a good guy.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting that the latest post-combine Mayock ratings has Bishop Sankey ahead of Hyde, and Hill 3rd... Followed by Andre Williams and Mason.

I do really like Rex Burkhead - he's quicker and more versatile than Benny, but he's not stopwatch fast. I think he's going to surprise some folks this fall.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going to see if I can find anything on Jerick McKinnon tonight.  He might be an interesting Saturday option at RB.

 

Against a good Georgia D in 2012:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLTyvacOVtI

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He is not bad but seems to run like a QB. Doesn't seem fluid at all. I think Denard Robinson ran much more fluidly.


I disagree. I think the small pads and the fact that he had to move laterally mess with your eyes. He's a smooth runner and I like his change of direction. He just sort of tilts.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...