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QB Draft Class......imo


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Strange QB draft class this year, there are no stand alone great ones, there are a few wildcard athletic types, a few rock solid stereotypical QB types, and a few guys who will be guys to get you by...

 

Here is my preferred QB ranking if i were a team needing a starting QB day 1:

 

1. Blake Bortles

2. Tom Savage

3. Derek Carr

4. Johnny Manziel

5. AJ McCarron

6. Jimmy Garoppolo

7. Teddy Bridgewater

 

Bortles - Tall, strong arm, accurate passer, The only reason I give him the nod over Savage, is health and consistency. Savage has already had knee issues and hopped around to many schools due to that and other things. Skillset wise, I would call these two a tie. 

 

Savage: Probably the most raw "QB talented" QB in the draft, accurate, strong arm, good size, etc.

 

Carr - Decent measurables, good leader, a bad qb on a bad team, a good qb on a good team. He isnt going to flat out win you games week after week like andrew luck, but he can make plays.

 

Maziel - going to fill seats, that moves him up the ladder, but i have a feeling he will be destroyed at the NFL level, he isnt outrunning future insurance salesmen anymore... I will enjoy watching the Burficts of the world hunt him down and punish him. I expect him to flop within a few years in the league. he doesnt have the size or power to be a long term option..

 

McCarron - Solid guy, played in the big games, wont be carrying a team on his back at all, but he could succeed in the right environment.

 

JG - Solid QB measurables, but will need a 1-2 year bench warming to get up to NFL speed.

 

Bridgewater: Only going to succeed if he can sit a year and get up to speed, maybe two years, and will need a solid O-Line, relied on his athleticism to cover up his slow decision making in college, that will break him in the nfl if he is forced into a starting roll off the bat.

 

Bortles has the hottest G/F by far...

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I'm curious as to how exactly Tom Savage is "accurate"?  He finished 43rd in the NCAA in accuracy last year (min 300 attempts), and at least 14th (there may have been draft eligible QB's I didn't recognize ahead of him) in accuracy among QB's in this year's draft.  Jordan Lynch, who everyone has moving to RB because he's inaccurate, was 1.4% more accurate than Tom Savage last year.  If you go by 250 attempts, toss in another 8 QB's overall and at least 4 more draft eligible QB's.  

 

Just don't see the appeal with Savage other than his arm.  When you watch him on tape, he's horribly inaccurate and a bad decision maker.  

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I'd switch Savage and Bridgewater on that list. 

 

Totally disagree with this:

 

Only going to succeed if he can sit a year and get up to speed, maybe two years, and will need a solid O-Line, relied on his athleticism to cover up his slow decision making in college

 

He did a great job from the pocket and his ability to make reads and run the offense is one of his strengths. He is way ahead of a guy like Savage in terms of decision making....

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I also like Aaron Murray a lot and am intrigued by Zach Mettenberger. I would take either of them over McCarron, who would be 9th on my list. 

 

I'd probably go:

 

Manziel

Bortles

Bridgewater

Carr 

Garoppolo

Murray

Mettenberger

Savage

McCarron

 

But they are all legitimately pretty close this year. And even the highest rated guys are pretty boom/bust, so I don't think any opinion on the order is outlandish. You could put any of these guys first or last really.

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Another comment re: your Manziel take...

 

He put like 50 points on Bama. Not a lot of insurance salesmen on that defense. His production would be easier to discount if he hadn't done it in the SEC. I'd probably classify myself as a bit of an SEC hater, but even I can't deny that it's the closest thing to the NFL there is in college football. And I don't think there is that massive of a jump from that level to the NFL. He was playing against linebackers like CJ Mosely for Alabama and he didn't break him in half.

 

I hope he doesn't end up on the Browns because he could end up being a real pain in the ass to play twice a year.

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I'm curious as to how exactly Tom Savage is "accurate"?  He finished 43rd in the NCAA in accuracy last year (min 300 attempts), and at least 14th (there may have been draft eligible QB's I didn't recognize ahead of him) in accuracy among QB's in this year's draft.  Jordan Lynch, who everyone has moving to RB because he's inaccurate, was 1.4% more accurate than Tom Savage last year.  If you go by 250 attempts, toss in another 8 QB's overall and at least 4 more draft eligible QB's.  

 

Just don't see the appeal with Savage other than his arm.  When you watch him on tape, he's horribly inaccurate and a bad decision maker.  

 

Watching him play....

 

Gauging a guys accuracy via a stat marker after spending a single season on a team is a bit short handed....being compared to many guys who spent 2-3-4 years in a system and with the same teammates, switching schools all over the country, injuries, and having any decent kind of year at PITT, says something..

 

he is accurate on the run, accurate on his deep ball, doesnt shit his pants in the pocket...many positives, perfect guy to toss into an offense full of talent.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSfhpmeRmY0

 

 

CBSSPORTS:

 

 

 

Big, tall strong-armed gunslinger who can make all the throws from the pocket, with a quick, fluid throwing motion. Could have the strongest arm in the 2014 class. Consistent drop exhibiting light feet to slide and move within the pocket. Senses pressure to side-step or elude to buy time. Leads receivers nicely on crossing routes, slants and out routes. Will drop it in the bucket. Impressive strength to drag or shrug off bigger defensive linemen and break tackles. Not an elite athlete but has a quick enough first step to escape the pocket with better-than-average acceleration for his size. 
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I'd switch Savage and Bridgewater on that list. 

 

Totally disagree with this:

 

Only going to succeed if he can sit a year and get up to speed, maybe two years, and will need a solid O-Line, relied on his athleticism to cover up his slow decision making in college

 

He did a great job from the pocket and his ability to make reads and run the offense is one of his strengths. He is way ahead of a guy like Savage in terms of decision making....

 

I will admit i watched bridgewater probably the least of anyone on my list, but the games i watched he seemed to scramble, throw a prayer, and got a lot of prayers answered. but the same thing could be said about drew brees, who still looks overmatches and under sized but makes the play happen game after game, year after year..

 

bridgewater has the size and strength, but the offense ran at Lville isnt likely to work as well in the NFL (see RG3 injuries).. so i just dont have as much faith in the ability to transition to an nfl offense...  with anyone on the list, his career will likely be made with what team he has around him when he gets drafted.

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Another comment re: your Manziel take...

 

He put like 50 points on Bama. Not a lot of insurance salesmen on that defense. His production would be easier to discount if he hadn't done it in the SEC. I'd probably classify myself as a bit of an SEC hater, but even I can't deny that it's the closest thing to the NFL there is in college football. And I don't think there is that massive of a jump from that level to the NFL. He was playing against linebackers like CJ Mosely for Alabama and he didn't break him in half.

 

I hope he doesn't end up on the Browns because he could end up being a real pain in the ass to play twice a year.

 

funny you mention the browns, i agree, i think he would do well there, fast talented targets on that team, and a defense good enough to erase a mistake or two per game. 

 

As for my ranking, i just dont trust the longevity of these scramble, small, qb's in the nfl, maybe he is the next drew brees, i dont know if he will have the attitude or personality to go to a terrible team and stick it out to get them better around him.. i would have ranked him much higher BEFORE last season.. all of the acting like a twat on and off the field had me losing faith in his ability to handle adversity.. he only faced superstar adversity.. i dont know how he reacts to being on a shit team like the jags or something.. thats my thinking behind his low ranking.. if he doesnt hit the ground running in the nfl, i mostly expect him to fizzle out mentally and become destructive..

 

either way i am eager to  see him play at the nfl level... all while half expecting him to flip off the crowd or punch someone at a bar...

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 i mostly expect him to fizzle out mentally and become destructive..

 

either way i am eager to  see him play at the nfl level... all while half expecting him to flip off the crowd or punch someone at a bar...

 

That's my biggest problem with Manziel; he's got a head full of squirrels.  I'm telling you now that guy screams "Ryan Leaf"... 

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Watching him play....

 

Gauging a guys accuracy via a stat marker after spending a single season on a team is a bit short handed....being compared to many guys who spent 2-3-4 years in a system and with the same teammates, switching schools all over the country, injuries, and having any decent kind of year at PITT, says something..

 

he is accurate on the run, accurate on his deep ball, doesnt shit his pants in the pocket...many positives, perfect guy to toss into an offense full of talent.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSfhpmeRmY0

 

 

CBSSPORTS:

 

 

 

well his completion percentage was nearly 10% WORSE in both of his years at Rutgers.  

 

 

This continues to be a well rounded video of what I've seen watching Savage play many games.  Big arm, but inaccurate and a horrible decision maker.  We also must see things differently on the deep ball.  He misses about 8 our of every 10.  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQ2PVx3SZcA

 

 

Go, out of curiosity do you watch highlight videos, or full snap videos?

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I will admit i watched bridgewater probably the least of anyone on my list, but the games i watched he seemed to scramble, throw a prayer, and got a lot of prayers answered. but the same thing could be said about drew brees, who still looks overmatches and under sized but makes the play happen game after game, year after year..

 

bridgewater has the size and strength, but the offense ran at Lville isnt likely to work as well in the NFL (see RG3 injuries).. so i just dont have as much faith in the ability to transition to an nfl offense...  with anyone on the list, his career will likely be made with what team he has around him when he gets drafted.

 

This is where you are losing me...Bridgewater was a 3 year starter and over his entire career rushed for less than 200 yards. He did not run the read option stuff that RG3, Newton, and others did at all. He played in a normal NFL type pro style offense and threw the ball a ton.

 

In terms of decision making, he had 31 TDs and 4 INTs last year. 

 

Just my opinion, but his on the field play was pretty much exactly what you want to see. The questions people have about him are his hand size (can he play in cold weather?), his weight (he is pretty skinny) and his arm strength (just kind of average). I think all the mental stuff, the pro style preparation, etc. are his major positives, he just doesn't fit the physical prototype.

 

The one thing that worries me most about him is the hand size. There have been some articles about it, but a lot of the busts in recent drafts have had small hands. Which makes it hard to grip the ball in bad weather and leads to fumbles and loss of accuracy in rain, snow and cold. A lot of the surprise guys from late in the draft (like Russell Wilson) had freakishly large hands for their size. With Bridgewater, he has had to wear gloves to compensate for the smaller hands. I don't think that's a huge problem, but I do understand why scouts are worried about it, especially after he performed terribly at his pro day without gloves on.

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well his completion percentage was nearly 10% WORSE in both of his years at Rutgers.  

 

 

This continues to be a well rounded video of what I've seen watching Savage play many games.  Big arm, but inaccurate and a horrible decision maker.  We also must see things differently on the deep ball.  He misses about 8 our of every 10.  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQ2PVx3SZcA

 

 

Go, out of curiosity do you watch highlight videos, or full snap videos?

 

Savage will be an interesting case to watch. The internet scouts (for lack of a better term) and writers all hate him. Basically think his game film is terrible. Poor accuracy. Poor decision making. Most rate him as a mid-late rounder.

 

According to "anonymous sources" though, some actual NFL scouts like him and he has become a hot name late in the process moving way up into the top 5 QBs. He has the prototype size, arm strength, etc. and these guys are thinking about what he can become 2 or 3 years down the road. He also has supposedly been pretty impressive in interviews.

 

I can see both sides of the argument. On the one hand, you aren't trying to draft a college all star team. You need a guy who can make NFL throws. We've seen guys like Flacco have better pro than college careers. And we've seen a lot of very good college players who just don't have what it takes physically to start in the NFL.

 

On the other hand, we've also seen a lot of guys like Blaine Gabbert come through where the NFL guys talked themselves into the size, arm strength, etc. and drafted a guy who just wasn't particularly good at football. If a guy isn't good in college, odds are he probably won't be very good in the NFL either. I tend to think Savage is going to be more of a Gabbert type, but it also wouldn't shock me if the internet scouts are wrong and he ends up developing into a good player if he lands with the right team.

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Savage will be an interesting case to watch. The internet scouts (for lack of a better term) and writers all hate him. Basically think his game film is terrible. Poor accuracy. Poor decision making. Most rate him as a mid-late rounder.

 

According to "anonymous sources" though, some actual NFL scouts like him and he has become a hot name late in the process moving way up into the top 5 QBs. He has the prototype size, arm strength, etc. and these guys are thinking about what he can become 2 or 3 years down the road. He also has supposedly been pretty impressive in interviews.

 

I can see both sides of the argument. On the one hand, you aren't trying to draft a college all star team. You need a guy who can make NFL throws. We've seen guys like Flacco have better pro than college careers. And we've seen a lot of very good college players who just don't have what it takes physically to start in the NFL.

 

On the other hand, we've also seen a lot of guys like Blaine Gabbert come through where the NFL guys talked themselves into the size, arm strength, etc. and drafted a guy who just wasn't particularly good at football. If a guy isn't good in college, odds are he probably won't be very good in the NFL either. I tend to think Savage is going to be more of a Gabbert type, but it also wouldn't shock me if the internet scouts are wrong and he ends up developing into a good player if he lands with the right team.

 

 

it strikes me as a situation where a girl thinks she can "change" a bad boy.  Love his positives (big arm) and convince yourself you can fix the flaws (pretty much everything else)

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Tom Savage....yes.  Watching him play makes me like him.....and I agree that if you go strictly by stats, which is a foolish thing to do, then you're downgrading him without digging beneath the surface on those stats.  NFL teams don't really give a shit about stats for the most part.  Your eyes will tell you how accurate those stats were or were they a circumstance of other variables coming together. 

 

Bridgewater I'd have to disagree with you on.  I see him as a good QB who is very accurate, a good decision maker, has great athleticism, has a good arm though not great but he can make every throw.  He's a 'gamer' as they say.....simply a football player.  I think he could come in and start for teams....no need to sit a year but if he was drafted by the Bengals at 24...PLEASE GOD LET THIS HAPPEN....he will have that opportunity which will help him as it would any other QB. 

 

Bortles can be a wildcard here as I think he can be really good.  Has to clean some things up but he has everything you look for in a QB, aside from a cannon arm but its plenty strong enough.  

 

The situation/team the QB is drafted into/by plays a huge role in their ultimate success as well. 

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Bridgewater I'd have to disagree with you on.  I see him as a good QB who is very accurate, a good decision maker, has great athleticism, has a good arm though not great but he can make every throw.  He's a 'gamer' as they say.....simply a football player.  I think he could come in and start for teams....no need to sit a year B is drafted into/by plays a huge role in their ultimate success as well. 

 

 

That sounds very similar to a guy who we already have on this team.

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That sounds very similar to a guy who we already have on this team.

 

Much better athleticism and arm for Bridgewater IMO.  Better decision making as well....and accuracy. 

 

Dalton was hurt by playing the offense he did at TCU which essentially stared down receivers....a habit that continues to this day, to the Bengals' detriment.  Bridgewater shows better progression ability as well.  

 

Just my opinion though.....

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Much better athleticism and arm for Bridgewater IMO.  Better decision making as well....and accuracy. 

 

Dalton was hurt by playing the offense he did at TCU which essentially stared down receivers....a habit that continues to this day, to the Bengals' detriment.  Bridgewater shows better progression ability as well.  

 

Just my opinion though.....

 

Well, right now we're comparing Bridgewater in college to Andy Dalton in the NFL.  I'm simply making the statement that there is some comparison, with the implication that trading one unproven comparable guy for one who is proven may not be the best move.

 

I'll agree with you though, and I've been saying this for two years now, that the biggest weakness in AD's game is not so much that he stares down receivers, but that he still does not effectively look-off coverage to draw the defense away from his intended receivers. Of course, when you have to throw inside of three seconds or get killed, that's difficult to do.

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