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Way too early look at 2015 possible draft needs


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QB - Depends on Dalton, and whether or not they get an extension done before the season.  Obviously if they do, they won't draft a QB early, and likely not at all.  If they don't, I think Dalton needs to play well in the post season and still not price himself out of Mike Brown's comfort range.  I see it as either not at all or a first 2 rounds pick.  

 

RB - Good to go.  Only as a BPA pick.

 

WR - Good to go.  Only as a BPA pick. 

 

TE - Depends on Gresham.  Does he play well enough to warrant a new contract?  As I see it, not at all, or rounds 3-5.

 

OT - As of now I would say this is the likely top target in 1.

 

OG - Good to go.  Only as a BPA pick.

 

OC - Good to go.  Only as a BPA pick.

 

DE - Good to go.  Only as a BPA pick.

 

DT - Possibly a mid round pick if Still doesn't step up.

 

SLB - My guess is good to go, only as a BPA pick.  Unless Lamur flops.  Is Vinnie signed for 2015?

 

MLB/WLB - Do they bring back Maualuga?  If so, a BPA type of pick.  If not, I could see them taking a M or W LB early and putting Burfict in the other spot.

 

CB - I can see a mid-round pick here.  How early depends on Dre I think.

 

S - I do think they could use a pick here to groom as Nelson's replacement.

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QB - Agree

 

RB - Agree

 

WR - Disagree. Need a receiver with #1 ceiling and #2 floor if we don't get a deal done with AJ.

 

TE - Agree about Gresham, but think we could/should still take a guy in 2-5 for #3 and blocking prowess especially.

 

OT - Agree

 

OG - Disagree. Think we'd be smart to get a good one in the top 3 picks.

 

OC - Disagree. TBD, based on what Bodine shows.  Could be 1st pick, could be not at all.

 

DE - Agree (though you can never have enough)

 

DT - Disagree.  Need a high round pick if Still doesn't step up, which looks more and more likely.

 

SLB - Agree, unless they want to use outside LB to bring more edge rush to the team.

 

MLB/WLB - I'd be surprised if they re-upped Rey; lots of guys in-house though to groom for WLB after moving Burfict to the middle.

 

CB - Agree

 

S - Agree

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If Gresham stays Orson is the 3rd TE. If Gresham goes we draft one.

As for DT our top 3 are fine, it's on Still. If he doesn't get it done a me round pick could replace him.

They will have Green at least through 2016, I also feel very confident they get a deal done with him. Unless they give Dalton stupid money.

As for guard I think they are ok between Boling Pollak and Hawkinson.
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If Gresham stays Orson is the 3rd TE. If Gresham goes we draft one.

As for DT our top 3 are fine, it's on Still. If he doesn't get it done a me round pick could replace him.

They will have Green at least through 2016, I also feel very confident they get a deal done with him. Unless they give Dalton stupid money.

As for guard I think they are ok between Boling Pollak and Hawkinson.

 

I agree with alley on WRs. Green isn't going anywhere. But Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu will both be hitting FA after 2015. I don't think we'll end up signing both. If Jones keeps improving, he could end up being really expensive. If Golden Tate is worth 5 years, $31M now, what will Jones be worth after cap inflation if he has 2 more good seasons? 5 years, $35M+? 

 

Assuming Dalton is extended and AJ gets his big deal, it means the Bengals just can't keep everyone on offense. They will have to make some tough choices on guys with deals expiring in the next 2 years: Gresham, Zeitler, Andre, Marvin, Boling, Whitworth, Sanu, etc. won't all get extensions. With 6 early picks next year, you have to address a few of those spots to inexpensive replacements lined up (like Hunt for M. Johnson). Figure maybe you extend Zeitler, Andre, and one of Sanu/Jones and let the rest leave. You're left with holes at LT, #2 WR and backup TE. 

 

 

On defense, we use a 2nd to 4th rounder on DL almost every year and that seems like a smart thing to continue. Could be DE or DT depending upon value and upon how the young guys perform.

 

The 2 spots on D that I think get addressed early are WLB/MLB (whichever Burfict doesn't play) and S (Nelson will be going into the last year of his deal). Long term at LB, I like Burfict-2015 early pick-Lamur as a great trio.

 

Based purely on need, I could see a draft something like this:

 

1. OT

2. MLB

3a. WR

3b. Safety

4a. DT

4b. TE

 

We are about to start a cycle where we have more guys hitting FA (due to great drafts) than cap space available. The upside to this is that we should end up having ~10 picks every year with the extra picks actually being good ones (rounds 3-5). It will make it much easier to reload on the fly and keep the team depth at a really high level. No reason that we shouldn't be able to have a lot of replacements waiting in the wings when FA hits after 2015 and we have a ton of guys hitting the market.

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  • 4 weeks later...

 

I agree with alley on WRs. Green isn't going anywhere. But Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu will both be hitting FA after 2015. I don't think we'll end up signing both. If Jones keeps improving, he could end up being really expensive. If Golden Tate is worth 5 years, $31M now, what will Jones be worth after cap inflation if he has 2 more good seasons? 5 years, $35M+? 

 

Assuming Dalton is extended and AJ gets his big deal, it means the Bengals just can't keep everyone on offense. They will have to make some tough choices on guys with deals expiring in the next 2 years: Gresham, Zeitler, Andre, Marvin, Boling, Whitworth, Sanu, etc. won't all get extensions. With 6 early picks next year, you have to address a few of those spots to inexpensive replacements lined up (like Hunt for M. Johnson). Figure maybe you extend Zeitler, Andre, and one of Sanu/Jones and let the rest leave. You're left with holes at LT, #2 WR and backup TE. 

 

 

On defense, we use a 2nd to 4th rounder on DL almost every year and that seems like a smart thing to continue. Could be DE or DT depending upon value and upon how the young guys perform.

 

The 2 spots on D that I think get addressed early are WLB/MLB (whichever Burfict doesn't play) and S (Nelson will be going into the last year of his deal). Long term at LB, I like Burfict-2015 early pick-Lamur as a great trio.

 

Based purely on need, I could see a draft something like this:

 

1. OT

2. MLB

3a. WR

3b. Safety

4a. DT

4b. TE

 

We are about to start a cycle where we have more guys hitting FA (due to great drafts) than cap space available. The upside to this is that we should end up having ~10 picks every year with the extra picks actually being good ones (rounds 3-5). It will make it much easier to reload on the fly and keep the team depth at a really high level. No reason that we shouldn't be able to have a lot of replacements waiting in the wings when FA hits after 2015 and we have a ton of guys hitting the market.

 

 

 

yo, check your PM's!

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I agree with alley on WRs. Green isn't going anywhere. But Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu will both be hitting FA after 2015. I don't think we'll end up signing both. If Jones keeps improving, he could end up being really expensive. If Golden Tate is worth 5 years, $31M now, what will Jones be worth after cap inflation if he has 2 more good seasons? 5 years, $35M+? 

 

Assuming Dalton is extended and AJ gets his big deal, it means the Bengals just can't keep everyone on offense. They will have to make some tough choices on guys with deals expiring in the next 2 years: Gresham, Zeitler, Andre, Marvin, Boling, Whitworth, Sanu, etc. won't all get extensions. With 6 early picks next year, you have to address a few of those spots to inexpensive replacements lined up (like Hunt for M. Johnson). Figure maybe you extend Zeitler, Andre, and one of Sanu/Jones and let the rest leave. You're left with holes at LT, #2 WR and backup TE. 

 

 

On defense, we use a 2nd to 4th rounder on DL almost every year and that seems like a smart thing to continue. Could be DE or DT depending upon value and upon how the young guys perform.

 

The 2 spots on D that I think get addressed early are WLB/MLB (whichever Burfict doesn't play) and S (Nelson will be going into the last year of his deal). Long term at LB, I like Burfict-2015 early pick-Lamur as a great trio.

 

Based purely on need, I could see a draft something like this:

 

1. OT

2. MLB

3a. WR

3b. Safety

4a. DT

4b. TE

 

We are about to start a cycle where we have more guys hitting FA (due to great drafts) than cap space available. The upside to this is that we should end up having ~10 picks every year with the extra picks actually being good ones (rounds 3-5). It will make it much easier to reload on the fly and keep the team depth at a really high level. No reason that we shouldn't be able to have a lot of replacements waiting in the wings when FA hits after 2015 and we have a ton of guys hitting the market.

 

 

PM!

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  • 3 months later...

Newman, Hall, and Jones still aren't getting any younger, and Dre hasn't shown me enough to be comfortable with him eventually starting. What is the contract status of Newman and Jones?

 

 

newman is a free agent after the year, jones has one more year. 

 

 

Still, I don't see DB's early and often.  Dre isn't as bad as most people think, and they seem high on dennard.  Hall isn't going anywhere either.  Your top 4 DB's are returning, plus you have Chris Lewis Harris.

 

 

IMO right now its clear that the early picks will likely be OT and more pass rush on the DL.

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Free Agents for 2014
Campbell 2014
Peerman 2014
Tate 2014
Gresham 2014
Smith 2014
Newhouse 2014
Boling 2014
Maualuga 2014
Mays 2014
Newman 2014
Nugent 2014
Sanzenbacher 2014

Lamur 2014
Brock 2014
Johnson 2014

Free Agents for 2015
Green 2015
Sanu 2015
Jones 2015
Whitworth 2015
Zeitler 2015
Smith 2015
Thompson 2015
Still 2015
Geathers 2015
Gilberry 2015
Rey 2015
IIoka 2015
Nelson 2015
Hall 2015
Jones 2015
Kirkpatrick 2015

Dimanche 2015
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With the above noted I would say

QB-Depends on Dalton, probably not
RB-No
FB-No
WR-Possibly as the 4th WR and a developmental guy to hedge against the loss of Sanu and/or Jones
TE-Probably, dependent on the contract for Gresham
T-Yes, # 1 priority. Whit and Smith are both Free Agents in 2015. I expect Whit back, unsure about Smith. Whit will likely retire here as a LG. Need his replacement.
G- No problem.
C- No problem.

DE- Looks ok
DT- Looks ok for next year, maybe a late pick for depth
LB- Yes, Maualaga is a FA. I'd continue the 3rd or later pick here to get depth
S- Large need. Both Iloka and Nelson are solid but FA's after 2015 and we need a better pass defender backing them up. This is my second or third rounder.
CB- Should be fine. We make wine out of water here. The core will shift from Hall to Newman to Dennard and Kirkpatrick.
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QB: I think we are set as far as the draft is concerned.  I think we either re-sign Campbell or sign another similar free agent.

RB: Need?  No.  BPA?  Possibly.

WR: See RB

TE: If we keep Gresham, no.  If not, probably a 2-4 round pick.

OT: Tough call.  I think Whit still has a few good years left.  And I think they will re-sign Andre.  The problem is the good OTs are going early now.  Where I see us picking, I think a tackle in 1 will likely be a reach.

OG: See RB  

C: See RB

 

DE: See RB

DT: See RB

LB: The coaches really seem to like Maualuga, but if it were me, I'd seriously consider a 1st round pick on either a WLB or MLB.

CB: Maybe not in 1, but I would not be at all surprised if they draft a CB in the first 3 rounds.  

S: Depth at FS could stand improvement.

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QB - We're set, Dalton was resigned and McCaron is the future backup. Unless Dalton shits the bed in the next two years in the playoffs he'll be here for a long time.

RB - Not a need, may take a waiver on a late round guy but not early

WR - Same

TE - If Gresh is gone they will look to get one from 1-3 depending on BPA, imo

OT - Smith is proving to be one of the best RTs in football, I was pretty surprised last time he didnt get an offer, but this time will be shocked. We also need to start looking at finding a replacement for Whit

OG - I'm not opposed to upgrading the LG spot with a guy that can pull and get to the 2nd level which I think would help the YPG of Gio, but I'd be surprised if that happens.

C - Not a need

 

CB - I hope we resgin Newman to a farewell contract, he's still playing at a high level. I think Kirkpatrick is "just a guy" but Leon and Denard will be the 1 and 2 until Leon's contract is up. Kirk may end up replacing Pacman and might be able to do that though, but he imo isnt a 1 or 2 CB. Long term we will have to find somene to put next to Dennard but thats not an immidiate need.

S - Love Illoka, need to look for Nelson's eventual replacement.

LB - I think Ray gets resigned on the cheap. Otherwise some depth would be nice.

DE - Hunt and Dunlap are the long term starters, Geathers and Gillberry are good backups.

DT - Need to start thinking about Peko's eventual replacement

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QB - We're set, Dalton was resigned and McCaron is the future backup. Unless Dalton shits the bed in the next two years in the playoffs he'll be here for a long time.

RB - Not a need, may take a waiver on a late round guy but not early

WR - Same

TE - If Gresh is gone they will look to get one from 1-3 depending on BPA, imo

OT - Smith is proving to be one of the best RTs in football, I was pretty surprised last time he didnt get an offer, but this time will be shocked. We also need to start looking at finding a replacement for Whit

OG - I'm not opposed to upgrading the LG spot with a guy that can pull and get to the 2nd level which I think would help the YPG of Gio, but I'd be surprised if that happens.

C - Not a need

 

CB - I hope we resgin Newman to a farewell contract, he's still playing at a high level. I think Kirkpatrick is "just a guy" but Leon and Denard will be the 1 and 2 until Leon's contract is up. Kirk may end up replacing Pacman and might be able to do that though, but he imo isnt a 1 or 2 CB. Long term we will have to find somene to put next to Dennard but thats not an immidiate need.

S - Love Illoka, need to look for Nelson's eventual replacement.

LB - I think Ray gets resigned on the cheap. Otherwise some depth would be nice.

DE - Hunt and Dunlap are the long term starters, Geathers and Gillberry are good backups.

DT - Need to start thinking about Peko's eventual replacement

 

Boling can pull and get to the second level.  And he's playing well.

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Jumping in late and have not followed the whole thread but at this point with this Bengal team...

 

Maualuga has lived on personality long enough and an upgrade should be sought out (drafted).  Really like the guy but still too many bad plays with him out of position or whiffing on tackles... his end of the line too often looks like an expressway entrance ramp for opposing offenses.

 

Kirkpatrick... whoop de doo special teams player, sometimes, but whiffs and penalties make him an underachiever (disappointment) for a first round pick.  If someone would trade a second round pick for him, I would take it.

 

Eventual replacements for aging vets like Whit, Newman, Jones etc.

 

I want to see if McCarron will benefit enough from his red shirt year to be a quality back up quarterback to Andy next season.

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After the first quarter of the season, my thoughts...

 

QB-No.

RB-No.

WR-Probably a mid-round need. We don't have a decent #4 WR and we are seeing how important that is with injuries decimating the WR corp. Also will have Green, Sanu and Jones entering the final year of their contracts (though we may get an extension or 2 done next offseason). Can never have too many weapons on offense. I'd be looking for a WR in round 3-5 hoping to find another steal like Marvin Jones.

TE-Depends on Gresham. If he is back, we still may look for a TE late who can block and be the #3. If Gresham leaves, then TE becomes a relatively early round need.

C/OG- I would make keeping Boling my top priority in FA. If we keep him, we should be good as Pollak can back up all 3 interior spots.

OT- Would be nice to get a guy early though I think both Smith and Whitworth end up sticking around for a while and get extensions at some point.

 

 

DT-Mid-round need probably. Geno and Domata are signed long term. Thompson will be going into the last year of his deal. Still is just okay.

DE-Depends upon what they think about Clarke. If they think he will be a big time contributor, then not a big need. If he is looking like a bust like a lot of our recent 3rd rounders, then they need to address it pretty early. If a big-time pass rusher is available, you can never have too many.

LB-Lamur is a RFA. Hopefully they can get him signed to a long term deal and we will be set with him and Burfict as our 2 main guys. Not sure if they keep Maualuga, but the SLB only plays 15-20 snaps a game anyway. So not a huge early round type of need. 

CB-We are going to be at least 4 deep with Hall, Dennard, Jones and Kirkpatrick. Wouldn't be surprised if we keep Newman around on a 1 year deal. I'd pass and hold off until 2016. Hall and Jones are guys who could play for a long time still. Dennard should be a starter soon.

S-Nelson and Iloka will be going into the last years of their deals and Nelson is getting older. Probably a mid-round need to get a possible Nelson replacement for 2016.

 

Overall, we have almost every key guy still under contract for 2015 (Boling is the only major FA IMO). The 2015 draft will be largely about planning for 2016 when we aren't going to be able to afford to re-sign everybody. Should have a lot of flexibility to look at BPA and not reach for any specific position. 

 

Something like this maybe....

 

1. OT

2. DT

3A. WR

3B. Safety

4A.TE

4B. LB

 

Hit DL, LB and DB once each with the early picks to add general depth on D. 

Get your long-term LT replacement and keep adding depth to the passing game weapons on O.

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