Kaepernick Gets Extension

[USN Bengal]

A different take on QBs that deserve new deals;

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mike-sando/post?id=8363

 

Ranking QBs most deserving of new deals

 

By Mike Sando | ESPN.com

 

The San Francisco 49ers had some options with quarterback Colin Kaepernick after watching him suffer three game-changing turnovers in the fourth quarter of their NFC Championship Game defeat this past season. They could have made him play out his rookie contract. They could have named him their franchise player next offseason and waited to see if another team would give up a couple of first-rounders for him.

Critics would have ripped them for taking chances at the most important position, but remember, during Jim Harbaugh's tenure, this team has won a higher percentage of its games with Alex Smith starting (.759) than it has won with Kaepernick in the lineup (.724).

Instead of playing it coy, the 49ers announced Tuesday that they had gone all-in with Kaepernick, signing him to a six-year deal that is expected to make him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the game (update: the deal is not as lucrative as initial reports suggested, making this a very sensible deal from the team's standpoint).

Kaepernick's work ethic makes this an understandable bet for the 49ers, a bet worth making, in my view. There's a very good chance the 49ers will go deep in the playoffs and possibly even win the Super Bowl next season. The price for Kaepernick was only going to go up, most likely, particularly now that San Francisco has improved its weaponry at receiver.

My own feeling from watching the 49ers is that Kaepernick's performance fell off in 2013 largely because the team ran low on offensive weapons. I also feel as though Kaepernick needs to learn when to suppress the big-play mentality that made him an appealing alternative to Smith. The big plays are great, but a little restraint in the NFC title game would have gone a long way for the 49ers.

I've made a few trips and lots of calls around the league this offseason to poll NFL decision-makers on quarterbacks. Those efforts remain in progress (and a full post examining the rankings is forthcoming), but with Kaepernick reaching his big extension Tuesday, this is a good time to look at some of the preliminary findings.

What follows is a list of QBs in line for new deals, arranged based on preliminary voting among 15 decision-makers I've consulted so far. Note that players drafted in 2012 cannot rework their deals until after the 2014 season.

1. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

Luck has won games for a team with relatively little defensive help and while playing in an offense that has not benefited from an effective running game. Luck has often been the team's best rusher, in fact. He becomes eligible for a new deal after this upcoming season is through.

2. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Wilson hasn't been asked to carry his team consistently. He has done it on occasion, and done it very well. But with only two years as a starter for a team with a dominant defense and running game, some of the comments I heard fell on the more conservative side. People want to see more, and again, Wilson is one of the passers who is ineligible to negotiate until after 2014.

3. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Newton's ranking in the eyes of those I've polled is in line with Kaepernick's, although the Panthers have time to make a decision on the former No. 1 overall pick after exercising the option in his rookie deal.

4. Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles

Foles was quite impressive in 2013, but does not have the track record of some of his peers.

Passing for 27 touchdown passes with only two interceptions this past season caught people's attention enough to move Foles into this position, although it's obvious that some are giving him the benefit of the doubt with less than a full season under his belt as an NFL starting QB.

5. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

Smith is solidly in the third tier, with most thinking he will remain there. He did become a more aggressive player late this past season, however, and the results were positive. Sustaining his late-season uptick will be hard now that the Chiefs will be facing the NFC West in the scheduling rotation.

6. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals

Dalton is right there with Smith in the third tier, and it's fair to wonder how much upward mobility he has. The Bengals can negotiate a new deal with him at any time.

7. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins

Quite a few people to whom I've spoken have said they would have ranked Griffin much higher before his injury. As with Luck and Wilson, he can't negotiate a new pact until after 2014.

8. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

Tannehill played to mixed reviews, although some see upside and think his performance will spike with improved pass protection. He will be eligible to negotiate after the 2014 season.

9. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams

Some loved Bradford coming out of college and hold out hope for him to meet expectations, but he'll have to stay on the field, and he hasn't shown that ability yet.

10. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans

The Titans didn't pick up the option on Locker, which means that this is effectively a make-or-break campaign for him in 2014 with a new head coach prowling the sidelines. For players like Locker and Bradford, we're not saying that they're necessarily bad players, just that they haven't shown a consistent ability to stay on the field.

[gatorclaws]

I don't agree with averaging the extension into 2014... he was already under contract for the minimum so using that is the average is just fuzzy math. Might as well factor average in the past 3 years as well to get a career average salary.
 
That being said, I tried to run some basic numbers using what's reported. I assumed the super bowl/all pro bonus won't happen because in Andy's case I don't see him making all pro and if we make the Super Bowl I don't care what he's paid. I also assumed he gets every roster and workout bonus.

 

I can't get it to paste correctly from excel, but if you break it up into what he would be paid it's as follows.

 

1 yr 25.8M extension for 2015 (25.8 AAV)

1 yr 14.3M team option in 2016 (20.1 AAV)

1 yr 16.9M team option in 2017 (19.0 AAV)

1 yr 17.4M team option in 2018(18.6 AAV)

1 yr 19.2M team option in 2019(18.7 AAV)

1 yr 21.4M team option in 2020(19.2 AAV)

 

 

Missing games makes it go down in value, super bowl or all pro makes it increase.

[coup000]

I like the pay as they play type structure.


As far as Bengals not being creative. I've sat through so many rookie holdouts as they tried to throw clause after clause into the deals to make them club friendly.

Appearance in Superbowls and All-Pro locking in dollars seems right up their alley, IMO.

I see that less as creativity and more trying to take advantage of their position. Rookies have leverage...to a point. Sitting out a year isn't realistic so the Bengals pressed their advantage as much as possible with some of those guys. This is different, it's manipulating the guarantees, escalators, de escalators, bonuses and yearly salaries to find a deal that the player accepts that is also good for the team. I think in the past (Atkins, Dunlap, Hall etc) they've actually been willing to pay some additional upfront cash to get away from guaranteeing future salaries and as far as I know they are completely unique in that regard. Prior to Kap, with QB's that game wouldn't work. QBs expect huge money and future guaranteed money as well.  

 

If Andy and his agents aren't willing to take a deal like the one Kap just signed, I doubt he is going to sign this offseason.

[Khatmandude]

I'd have to think almost everyone would jump at that deal for Dalton. What a hugely 49ers-friendly deal!

 

This is exactly the type of deal the Bengals should do with Dalton.  A bunch of 1 yr deals that will continue to benefit the player if he performs.  Has benefit for the team as well if the performance is not there.   That's my only worry about Dalton signing long term, that the lack of flexibility as a result of his deal would negatively impact the Bengals ability to form the kind of team they want and need. 

 

I think this is the future of NFL contracts as well.  Huge money potential IF the players performs.  Sounds good to me on the surface. 

[Bengals1181]

 

This is exactly the type of deal the Bengals should do with Dalton.  A bunch of 1 yr deals that will continue to benefit the player if he performs.  Has benefit for the team as well if the performance is not there.   That's my only worry about Dalton signing long term, that the lack of flexibility as a result of his deal would negatively impact the Bengals ability to form the kind of team they want and need. 

 

I think this is the future of NFL contracts as well.  Huge money potential IF the players performs.  Sounds good to me on the surface. 

 

 

you wonder what the NFLPA will have to say about it, as its moving even farther away from guaranteed contracts.

[Squirrlnutz]

Are the Dalton haters that fucking dense?

 

For fucks sake people have been pissing and moaning for months now when 15, 16, 17, 18 mill/year numbers are thrown around for Dalton because "it would cripple the team's ability to retain other players and add new talent as well as hitch our train to a QB who chokes for the next 6 years."

 

When the rest of us have been saying "his value is at its lowest and he's good enough to get you to the playoffs every year while setting franchise records, extend him now WITH A CONTRACT YOU CAN GET OUT OF IN TWO YEARS because its the most logical thing to do given the difficulty of finding a new QB the NFL."

 

Suddenly, the people who would rather have us draft Nobody McNobody in the 2nd round next year and just fucking go with it because it can't possibly be as bad as paying Dalton monopoly money to keep winning more games every year, are realizing that maybe there is a middle ground.

 

It's nice outside when you take your head out of your ass.

[sois]

 

 

you wonder what the NFLPA will have to say about it, as its moving even farther away from guaranteed contracts.

 

Kaep didn't have to sign the contract.

[Bengals1181]

 

Kaep didn't have to sign the contract.

 

 

its all about leverage.  Dunlap didn't have to sign his deal either, but a guy on a rookie deal isn't going to turn down that kind of money.

 

Still, the NFLPA is certainly going to chime in at some point if contracts start turning into basically a string of one year deals.

[coup000]

 

 

its all about leverage.  Dunlap didn't have to sign his deal either, but a guy on a rookie deal isn't going to turn down that kind of money.

 

Still, the NFLPA is certainly going to chime in at some point if contracts start turning into basically a string of one year deals.

If the players are willing to take these types of deals the only real thing the NFLPA can do is change the allowable contract language in the next CBA.

[Jamie_B]

Are the Dalton haters that fucking dense?

 

For fucks sake people have been pissing and moaning for months now when 15, 16, 17, 18 mill/year numbers are thrown around for Dalton because "it would cripple the team's ability to retain other players and add new talent as well as hitch our train to a QB who chokes for the next 6 years."

 

When the rest of us have been saying "his value is at its lowest and he's good enough to get you to the playoffs every year while setting franchise records, extend him now WITH A CONTRACT YOU CAN GET OUT OF IN TWO YEARS because its the most logical thing to do given the difficulty of finding a new QB the NFL."

 

Suddenly, the people who would rather have us draft Nobody McNobody in the 2nd round next year and just fucking go with it because it can't possibly be as bad as paying Dalton monopoly money to keep winning more games every year, are realizing that maybe there is a middle ground.

 

It's nice outside when you take your head out of your ass.

 

 

Why would a QB setting franchise records need to be given a contract that (caps emphasis yours)  "YOU CAN GET OUT OF IN TWO YEARS"?

[Bengals1181]

If the players are willing to take these types of deals the only real thing the NFLPA can do is change the allowable contract language in the next CBA.

 

 

oh yea, there's definitely nothing the NFLPA can do about it in the short term.  It's something that's going to have to be negotiated.

[Jamie_B]

 

 

its all about leverage.  Dunlap didn't have to sign his deal either, but a guy on a rookie deal isn't going to turn down that kind of money.

 

Still, the NFLPA is certainly going to chime in at some point if contracts start turning into basically a string of one year deals.

 

 

You would think, but then Dalton, on his rookie deal, hasn't signed a contract that has been rumored to be what the bengals feel is good money.

[Squirrlnutz]

 

 

Why would a QB setting franchise records need to be given a contract that (caps emphasis yours)  "YOU CAN GET OUT OF IN TWO YEARS"?

 

Because he has deficiencies you fucking moron...NOBODY has said otherwise. 

 

Those who "defend" him are well aware that he's not the greatest....but unlike the rest of you mouth breathers we are keenly aware that his success is really, really unique and not something a reasonable NFL team would walk away from without a compelling plan B in place.

[Bengals1181]

 

 

You would think, but then Dalton, on his rookie deal, hasn't signed a contract that has been rumored to be what the bengals feel is good money.

 

 

tough to assume given we don't know what he was offered.  If he got offered well below market value, he knows he has some wiggle room to negotiate.

 

It's not just about signing any deal that's bigger than your rookie deal.

[Jamie_B]

 

Because he has deficiencies you fucking moron...NOBODY has said otherwise. 

 

Those who "defend" him are well aware that he's not the greatest....but unlike the rest of you mouth breathers we are keenly aware that his success is really, really unique and not something a reasonable NFL team would walk away from without a compelling plan B in place.

 

 

Mouthbreather? Fucking moron?

 

Man you DD'ers really do take this stuff so personally.

 

As to the rest, I am finally glad to see a DD'er pony up to the bar and admit that the concerns that the "haters" have might be legitimate.

[scharm]

If the players are willing to take these types of deals the only real thing the NFLPA can do is change the allowable contract language in the next CBA.

True but that's how they got here in the first place. The NFLPA can start beating the drums of the base and eventually push for a strike by the membersip and then you get into all the "lockout" conversations.

What will keep that at bay is the growing pool of money available. Players may be less gaurantees with these contracts but it less out of growing cap and spending.

Owners won with getting the rookie salaries in line as they now have the ultimate leverage. Hungry player, cheap as a rookie and by the time they get to second contract they are just looking to get rewarded.

[Jamie_B]

 

 

tough to assume given we don't know what he was offered.  If he got offered well below market value, he knows he has some wiggle room to negotiate.

 

It's not just about signing any deal that's bigger than your rookie deal.

 

 

Well what we know is that it's below the Cutler deal, but yes the specifics arent known, just rumored (by lap I believe) that the team offered what they felt was a very good deal.

[JBandJoeyV]

 
 
Mouthbreather? Fucking moron?
 
May you DD'ers really do take this stuff so personally.
 
As to the rest, I am finally glad to see a DD'er pony up to the bar and admit that the concerns that the "haters" have might be legitimate.

The fucking moron was a little over the top but...

Your last comment sums it up best. 95% of the DD realize dalton isn't perfect or elite and realize there are some concerns. You thinking that the DD don't have any concerns is a prime example of bad reading comprehension. Name me more than 2 posters that don't have any concern with dalton??? Oh that's right you can't.

[scharm]

 
Because he has deficiencies you fucking moron...NOBODY has said otherwise. 
 
Those who "defend" him are well aware that he's not the greatest....but unlike the rest of you mouth breathers we are keenly aware that his success is really, really unique and not something a reasonable NFL team would walk away from without a compelling plan B in place.

you never have seen Dalton's 3 year stats compared to HOFers on here? Never saw COMPARISONS not predictions to Drew Brees?

Kinda odd way to express you are well aware that he's not the greatest but whatevs. Never saw claims that difference between the Browns and Bengals is Dalton?

[Jamie_B]

The fucking moron was a little over the top but...

Your last comment sums it up best. 95% of the DD realize dalton isn't perfect or elite and realize there are some concerns. You thinking that the DD don't have any concerns is a prime example of bad reading comprehension. Name me more than 2 posters that don't have any concern with dalton??? Oh that's right you can't.

 

 

If you realize that why get so upset when the "haters" discuss them?

[JBandJoeyV]

 
 
If you realize that why get so upset when the "haters" discuss them?

Nobody is geting upset just because you discuss some of the concerns with dalton. Once again it's a reading comprehension thing IMO. Go find a thread where there is a dalton debate and see where it stemmed from. I'm sure it didn't just stem from talking about concerns with paying dalton.

[Jamie_B]

Nobody is geting upset just because you discuss some of the concerns with dalton. Once again it's a reading comprehension thing IMO. Go find a thread where there is a dalton debate and see where it stemmed from. I'm sure it didn't just stem from talking about concerns with paying dalton.

 

 

Really? So calling someone a fucking moron and mouth breather isnt being upset? That's just good discussion? Saying "the "haters" woke up this morning a little less stupid" is just part of the dicussion?

 

Come on man, you arent that naive.

[Bengals1181]

Nobody is geting upset just because you discuss some of the concerns with dalton. Once again it's a reading comprehension thing IMO. Go find a thread where there is a dalton debate and see where it stemmed from. I'm sure it didn't just stem from talking about concerns with paying dalton.

 

 

its never about the message, its about the attitude/tone, and at times outright trolling.  

 

 

For some posters, to be trying to stand on a pedestal today, well....lol.

[Jamie_B]

 

 

its never about the message, its about the attitude/tone, and at times outright trolling.  

 

 

For some posters, to be trying to stand on a pedestal today, well....lol.

 

 

Naw it's entirely about the message. People get upset about it, it's crazy.

[Khatmandude]

 

 

its never about the message, its about the attitude/tone, and at times outright trolling.  

 

 

For some posters, to be trying to stand on a pedestal today, well....lol.

 

Nobody's trying to stand on a pedestal today, maybe they just want the douchebaggery to stop.  But nice attempt to further divide.