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Andy Dalton's Struggles, Explained


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http://www.cincinnatimagazine.com/bengals/2014/06/16/andy-daltons-struggles-explained

 

Andy Dalton's Struggles, Explained
Posted on 6/16/2014 10:00:00 AM by Justin Williams
 

The folks over at Pro Football Focus (AKA “some dumbass website” according to Marvin Lewis) have deemed June the Month of the QB, analyzing the position in a number of statistical areas. Two of the breakdowns appear to be particularly revelatory in relation to the ever-mercurial Andy Dalton.

The first example looks at how NFL QBs performed in 2013 when in the pocket, rolling out (Ludacris’s favorite play), and scrambling. For Dalton, the disparity between in-the-pocket and scrambling was vast. On standard drops in the pocket, Dalton had a PFF grade of +13—eighth best in the league—including a completion percentage of 62.9%, an accuracy rating of 73.2%, and a 90.9 QB Rating. Where things went south was when Dalton got outside the pocket, specifically when scrambling. Forced to vacate the pocket on 29 dropbacks, Dalton’s performance was third-worst among QBs last season, ahead of only Terrelle Pryor and E.J. Manuel. He scored a PFF grade of -6.3 and QB Rating of 18.8, with a completion percentage of 20.8%, an accuracy score of 31.3%, and two interceptions compared to one touchdown. For the majority of QBs, (particularly those not named Russell Wilson), it holds true that they perform better with a standard dropback compared to running away from defensive pressure. The issue with Dalton stems from how much his productivity drops when on the run, even if it only happened roughly 30 times.

Those numbers get a bit more nuanced (and sample sizes a bit bigger) when looking at how Dalton performed against pressure and/or blitzes from opposing defenses. Going against the broad classification of “no pressure” on 479 dropbacks, Dalton was in the top-half of QBs and amongst the largest sample sizes, finishing with a PFF grade of +11.7, including a 68.1 completion percentage, 76.6 accuracy percentage, and a QB rating of 100.5. He was even better without a blitz (finishing sixth with a PFF grade of +13.7) and the combination of no blitz AND no pressure (11th, PFF grade of +9.0). In fact, he wasn’t exactly awful against straight pressure either, finishing in the middle of the pack with a -4.8 grade (in a category where few performed well). And no doubt most surprising, when facing pressure that DID NOT come from a blitz (meaning the pressure resulted from a typical d-line rush), Dalton was the best QB in the league with a PFF grade of +4.7 on 95 dropbacks.

But this is when things get all rough pumpkins for the fiery-haired signal caller: blitzing. He finished in the bottom ten of the league when simply facing any type of blitz with a PFF grade of -6.8, and was even painfully average in relation to his fellow QBs against blitzes with no pressure (a dangerous proposition for defenses due to the resulting holes in coverage) racking up a PFF score of +2.7 on 149 dropbacks—the latter number being the most for an individual QB last season. Against blitz-induced pressure, he was simply abysmal. His -9.5 PFF grade was third-worst in the NFL, above only Matt Schaub’s season of suckitude and Mike Glennon. Last season, the message was clear: if you blitz Dalton, he won’t respond well.

Ostensibly, that statement would apply to all quarterbacks. But while I assume that most QBs would rather not be blitzed, it’s also no mistake that among the top 10 QB performances against blitzes last season, the names include Super Bowl Champion Russell Wilson (#1), Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Colin Kaepernick, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. The good QBs thrive in spite of the blitz, or at the very least figure out a way to handle it well. But the reason this distinction is also intriguing for Dalton is because the stats suggest that it’s not so much the pressure that hampers him, but simply blitzing in general. A quick look at the numbers clearly shows that Dalton is far more comfortable when he can be a standard, dropback-in-the-pocket passer, but they also make obvious that Dalton is an above-average to very good QB when there is no blitz, regardless of whether or not there is pressure. This also gives credence to the opinion—ok, my opinion—that when blitzed, Dalton freaks out.

Another interesting note: The fact that he faced the highest number of snaps last season resulting in a blitz-by-the defense-with-no-subsequent-pressure suggests two explanations. The first being that Dalton is more than capable of recognizing blitzes and directing protection schemes, and/or the second being that the Bengals offensive line is very adept at picking up said blitzes. My guess is that the true explanation is some closely related combination of each of those things. But if that’s the case, then this also suggests that Dalton freaks out against the blitz even if he knows it’s coming, and worse, even if it doesn’t get to him.

The prevailing wisdom among Bengals fans and NFL analysts is that in order for the team (and the QB) to succeed, the organization must do everything it can to put Dalton in the best possible position to succeed—surrounding him with a solid o-line, talented skill players, catering to his cerebral skills/quick release/close-range accuracy, and masking his lack of height and arm strength. This is also why there is such a lust for the impending Hue-Jackson-helmed run-heavy offense. If the Bengals can minimize the opportunities for Dalton to screw up, then maybe—just maybe—they can contend for a championship with him under center. The challenge now though is figuring out how all of those plans and scenarios the Bengals are enacting can prevent the other team from blitzing.

Because if I were the opposing defense, I’d be sending the house every chance I got.

---

 

 

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I'm not sure this supports the case that he "just freaks out" against the blitz.. In fact IMO the fact he still performed well under pressure when not blitzed caontradicts this.  It very well may have been a scheme or coaching issue.  I would imagine he is being coached what to do in blitzing situations, and how to react.

 

I would think the "freak out" hypothesis would make more sense if he was failing in pressure situations in general.

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Article's conclusion aside.

 

 

Gio should become more of a blitz buster in his second year by simply putting pressure of LBs but more like CB/S to account for the mismatches in coverage.

 

Gio's big playmaking skill won't take him off the board when down and distance are more popular for blitzing.

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Maybe the reason why Dalton struggles vs. the blitz is because he is unprepared for dealing with the blitz. Normally if a QB reads a defense and sees a blitz he will audible into another play that counters the blitz. If Dalton is struggling vs. the blitz maybe it's because he didn't anticipate the blitz and is caught off guard? 

 

Just a thought as to why his performance vs. the blitz is so underwhelming as compared to other situations. 

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Maybe the reason why Dalton struggles vs. the blitz is because he is unprepared for dealing with the blitz. Normally if a QB reads a defense and sees a blitz he will audible into another play that counters the blitz. If Dalton is struggling vs. the blitz maybe it's because he didn't anticipate the blitz and is caught off guard? 

 

Just a thought as to why his performance vs. the blitz is so underwhelming as compared to other situations. 

 

I can't think of why that would be much different than unanticipated pressure in other situations (protection breakdown).  He fares much worse in blitz situations than when being pressured in non blitz situation.  I still think this would seem to point to a scheme or coaching issue than with Dalton himself.  

 

I mean maybe he's like "Ahh! A blitz" and poops his pants.. But I'm not sure why that's any different than "Ah! an unblocked defensive end!!".

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The folks over at Pro Football Focus (AKA “some dumbass website” according to Marvin Lewis) have deemed June the Month of the QB, analyzing the position in a number of statistical areas. Two of the breakdowns appear to be particularly revelatory in relation to the ever-mercurial Andy Dalton.

 

http://www2.cincinnati.com/blogs/bengals/2013/03/19/breakfast-with-marvin-highlights/

 

When it comes to fan and media criticism of his play, Lewis is not a fan of Pro Football Focus, which rated Maualuga as the worst inside linebacker in the game last season. In fact from the following quote, you would think he blamed PFF for turning the fans against Maualuga. Said Lewis when asked about the fans anger towards Maualgua: “Because they look at some dumb ass web site that doesn’t have any idea of what football is. The same website that two years ago that rated Kelly Jennings the best tackling corner in the NFL. These people who aren’t football they are trying to be critical. We’ll be as critiquing of Rey as we need to be, we don’t need any help.”

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I think its fairly obvious from both the article and the eye ball test that Andy and the offense did not handle blitzes particularly well. I think these struggles probablly stem from one of two things.

 

1.) Andy cant react quick enough after the snap to recognize where to put the ball 

 

or

 

2.) Gruden's offensive scheme was inadequately prepared for adjusting to blitzes.

 

Personally i think #2 is the more likely culprite, as i remember screaming at my TV screen numerous times about the lack of a safety valve or quick dump off option when the QB is under pressure. However, we'll know after this season because the odds are pretty low that successive OC's would BOTH be completely incapable of making the right adjustments.

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Blitz or no blitz there have been critical comments by "experts" like Sims and Mayock during broadcast of the games surrounding Andy's anticipation/recognition of targets being open.


That jives a little with the analysis above.
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I can't think of why that would be much different than unanticipated pressure in other situations (protection breakdown).  He fares much worse in blitz situations than when being pressured in non blitz situation.  I still think this would seem to point to a scheme or coaching issue than with Dalton himself.  

 

I mean maybe he's like "Ahh! A blitz" and poops his pants.. But I'm not sure why that's any different than "Ah! an unblocked defensive end!!".

 

Maybe if he knows pre snap that there will be an unblocked defensive end than he will not react by pooping his pants, but if he's expecting everyone to be blocked but an unexpected blitz occurs then that could be why he soils himself....

 

Maybe Andy can get a deal sponsoring these..

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Blitz or no blitz there have been critical comments by "experts" like Sims and Mayock during broadcast of the games surrounding Andy's anticipation/recognition of targets being open.


That jives a little with the analysis above.

 

I definitely think there is some improvement to be made from Andy on his progression of his reads. I've heard NFL analyst comment on it and I've seen it myself when I've attended games. It seems like Dalton makes up his mind pre-snap where he wants to go with the ball and will either force it to the pre-snap read or scramble and try to make things happen. Judging from the stats provided by PFF it seems that when his pre-snap 1st or 2nd option isn't open that is when he gets into trouble. 

 

I've seen Dalton force throws to AJ when he was double or triple covered and there were other players available that had much better matchups. Hopefully the combination of Hue running the ball more and Dalton maturation as a player will allow him to handle blitzes and working through his progressions better than he has shown in the past. 

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Maybe if he knows pre snap that there will be an unblocked defensive end than he will not react by pooping his pants, but if he's expecting everyone to be blocked but an unexpected blitz occurs then that could be why he soils himself....
 
Maybe Andy can get a deal sponsoring these..


See, it's this mindless antagonizing shit that starts the flames rolling. And it isn't "opinion" or "my views" either.

Why not just keep it to your usual overblown expert opinion, and leave the sideshow crap out?

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 The challenge now though is figuring out how all of those plans and scenarios the Bengals are enacting can prevent the other team from blitzing.

 

Because if I were the opposing defense, I’d be sending the house every chance I got.

---

 

So what's going to happen when Hue starts calling for draw plays, screens of various sorts, and three step drop hot read plays? I think that would take the steam out of a number of blitzes, when the defense gambles, loses and gives up big yardage and points.

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Maybe the reason why Dalton struggles vs. the blitz is because he is unprepared for dealing with the blitz. Normally if a QB reads a defense and sees a blitz he will audible into another play that counters the blitz. If Dalton is struggling vs. the blitz maybe it's because he didn't anticipate the blitz and is caught off guard? 

 

Just a thought as to why his performance vs. the blitz is so underwhelming as compared to other situations. 

 

Dalton's stats against all types of blitzes aren't great but there not as bad as painted.

 

QB rating of 86.6 and twice as many TD's as picks.

 

Plus, over 60% completion rate and roughly 7.5 ypg.

 

Where the blogger comes closest to "explaining" Dalton is when he claims Dalton throws very poorly on the run and performs very badly when pressure from a blitz is actually felt.

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We'll see very soon whether this has been on the player or the system. Hue Jackson has enough experience that he knows how to beat a blitz. If Andy Dalton continues to struggle against the blitz (or against 3-4 defenses in general) then it's all on him.

I liked a lot of the things that Jay Gruden did with the offense. However, he seemed to outsmart himself sometimes. I also always felt like there was not nearly enough motion to get receivers a better release and not enough slants. Too many times, the hot read seemed to be an A.J. Green comeback route that defenses were sitting on. I think we'll see a lot more slants. Lastly, a true commitment to running the ball will go a long way toward neutralizing the blitz.
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See, it's this mindless antagonizing shit that starts the flames rolling. And it isn't "opinion" or "my views" either.

Why not just keep it to your usual overblown expert opinion, and leave the sideshow crap out?

 

This thread was about Dalton's struggles about facing blitzes, Lucid mentions that Dalton poops when facing the blitz, I thought it would be funny to put a picture of "Opps I crapped my pants" in response to Lucid's post. How is me posting a picture of "Opps I crapped my pants" in reference to Andy Dalton antagonizing you personally...I don't know you and I wasn't talking about you so you should calm down and stop taking things personally when they clearly aren't a personal attack. 

 

How can you attempt to take the high road by telling me what to post and attack me personally. If you don't like what I posted then ignore it. I don't understand why you feel justified attacking me personally is a proper way to respond to what I posted. Are you that sensitive that if anyone post anything negative about Dalton you lose your shit and start hurling personal attacks at that person?

 

If you don't like what I post or my expert opinion then ignore me. Why did you even come into this thread if you can't handle anything negative about Dalton? 

 

 +1.

 

 

You always like to add your two cents onto a topic that literally has nothing to do with you, please stop interjecting yourself into these situations because it's pathetic. If the only thing you have to stay is" +1" then please save that shit, you act like a catty teenage girl too much for a 60+ year old man.  

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I can't think of why that would be much different than unanticipated pressure in other situations (protection breakdown).  He fares much worse in blitz situations than when being pressured in non blitz situation.  I still think this would seem to point to a scheme or coaching issue than with Dalton himself.  

 

I mean maybe he's like "Ahh! A blitz" and poops his pants.. But I'm not sure why that's any different than "Ah! an unblocked defensive end!!".

Pressure from a non blitz doesn't change the structure of the defense that Andy read pre-snap whereas an unexpected blitz can completely change the defense and its positioning after it is executed. That's the difference and why people might surmise that Andy "freaks out" from blitzes because he is unable to re-read the defense quickly.

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This thread was about Dalton's struggles about facing blitzes, Lucid mentions that Dalton poops when facing the blitz, I thought it would be funny to put a picture of "Opps I crapped my pants" in response to Lucid's post. How is me posting a picture of "Opps I crapped my pants" in reference to Andy Dalton antagonizing you personally...I don't know you and I wasn't talking about you so you should calm down and stop taking things personally when they clearly aren't a personal attack. 

 

How can you attempt to take the high road by telling me what to post and attack me personally. If you don't like what I posted then ignore it. I don't understand why you feel justified attacking me personally is a proper way to respond to what I posted. Are you that sensitive that if anyone post anything negative about Dalton you lose your shit and start hurling personal attacks at that person?

 

If you don't like what I post or my expert opinion then ignore me. Why did you even come into this thread if you can't handle anything negative about Dalton? 

 

 

 

You always like to add your two cents onto a topic that literally has nothing to do with you, please stop interjecting yourself into these situations because it's pathetic. If the only thing you have to stay is" +1" then please save that shit, you act like a catty teenage girl too much for a 60+ year old man.  

 

the truth hurts, doesn't it.  You know Le tigre is right, and I concur with him.  Sorry it hurt your feelings.

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See, it's this mindless antagonizing shit that starts the flames rolling. And it isn't "opinion" or "my views" either.

Why not just keep it to your usual overblown expert opinion, and leave the sideshow crap out?

 

 

 

This thread was about Dalton's struggles about facing blitzes, Lucid mentions that Dalton poops when facing the blitz, I thought it would be funny to put a picture of "Opps I crapped my pants" in response to Lucid's post. How is me posting a picture of "Opps I crapped my pants" in reference to Andy Dalton antagonizing you personally...I don't know you and I wasn't talking about you so you should calm down and stop taking things personally when they clearly aren't a personal attack. 

 

How can you attempt to take the high road by telling me what to post and attack me personally. If you don't like what I posted then ignore it. I don't understand why you feel justified attacking me personally is a proper way to respond to what I posted. Are you that sensitive that if anyone post anything negative about Dalton you lose your shit and start hurling personal attacks at that person?

 

If you don't like what I post or my expert opinion then ignore me. Why did you even come into this thread if you can't handle anything negative about Dalton? 

 

 

 

You always like to add your two cents onto a topic that literally has nothing to do with you, please stop interjecting yourself into these situations because it's pathetic. If the only thing you have to stay is" +1" then please save that shit, you act like a catty teenage girl too much for a 60+ year old man.  

 

Ok guys, lets cool it down a bit..


 

the truth hurts, doesn't it.  You know Le tigre is right, and I concur with him.  Sorry it hurt your feelings.

 

No need to pile on Kenneth..

 

Everyone, play nice..

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Pressure from a non blitz doesn't change the structure of the defense that Andy read pre-snap whereas an unexpected blitz can completely change the defense and its positioning after it is executed. That's the difference and why people might surmise that Andy "freaks out" from blitzes because he is unable to re-read the defense quickly.

 

I would tend to agree with this line of thinking. 

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Ok guys, lets cool it down a bit..


 

No need to pile on Kenneth..

 

Everyone, play nice..

 

I wasn't trying to pile on, he referenced me in his comment, I was just letting him know that I thought that his image in his post was one of the things that has caused all the kerfuffle.  I thought then and still do at this point, that Le Tigre was correct. 

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Don't want to start another Dalton thread, but if mods want to separate it into its own thread, feel free....

 

 

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2014/6/17/5818908/bengals-load-off-andy-dalton

Bengals looking to take the load off of Andy Dalton in 2014

By Jason Marcum @JasonB_Marcum on Jun 17 2014, 6:08p 62

20121230_pjc_sv4_156.0_standard_709.0.jp
USA TODAY Sports

It's been no secret the Bengals want to run the ball more this year and not have quarterback Andy Dalton throwing 30+ times every game. With a massive offensive line paving the way for a pair of young, dynamic backs in Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, there's no reason to not run the ball 25+ times every game.

Dalton attempted the 8th-most passes (586) in the regular season last year to go with his 51 attempts in the playoff loss to the Chargers was far too many for any non-elite QB. It's no coincidence the Bengals are just 2-12 (including playoffs) in games Dalton throws 41 or more passes, and the two wins featured 13-10 and 20-10 final scores.

 

Shocker: Cincinnati is 18-4 in games Dalton throws 31 times or less, and three of those games were decided by seven or less points.

Bengals.com's Geoff Hobson thinks that attempts number could dip by over 100 attempts in 2014.

New offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is committed to changing it and I think he’s also committed to taking the load off Andy Dalton. A big adjustment that has to make is cutting his pass attempts from 586 to closer to Russell Wilson’s number of 407.

To heck with the short stuff. The running game should open up the deep ball and with Jackson’s experience under Al Davis you can believe they’ll be running many more vertical routes.

It is worth noting that Wilson rushed 96 times last year compared to Dalton's 61. The Seahawks also had a nice 1-2 punch with Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, but the Hill-Gio combo could be just as formidable in 2014.

All being said, the Bengals should indeed look to take the ball out of Dalton's hands more this coming season and spread the workload out.

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for the mods i was looking into the idea that someone else had posted about splitting threads before the reordering and from what i can tell you can do it from what i found was you have to click each individual post you want to separate and in the bottom right where your mod options are there is a "split" option

 

maybe try that out in the mod forum and see how it works before doing it on a normal thread

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Don't want to start another Dalton thread, but if mods want to separate it into its own thread, feel free....

 

 

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2014/6/17/5818908/bengals-load-off-andy-dalton

Bengals looking to take the load off of Andy Dalton in 2014

By Jason Marcum @JasonB_Marcum on Jun 17 2014, 6:08p 62

20121230_pjc_sv4_156.0_standard_709.0.jp
USA TODAY Sports

It's been no secret the Bengals want to run the ball more this year and not have quarterback Andy Dalton throwing 30+ times every game. With a massive offensive line paving the way for a pair of young, dynamic backs in Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, there's no reason to not run the ball 25+ times every game.

Dalton attempted the 8th-most passes (586) in the regular season last year to go with his 51 attempts in the playoff loss to the Chargers was far too many for any non-elite QB. It's no coincidence the Bengals are just 2-12 (including playoffs) in games Dalton throws 41 or more passes, and the two wins featured 13-10 and 20-10 final scores.

 

Shocker: Cincinnati is 18-4 in games Dalton throws 31 times or less, and three of those games were decided by seven or less points.

Bengals.com's Geoff Hobson thinks that attempts number could dip by over 100 attempts in 2014.

New offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is committed to changing it and I think he’s also committed to taking the load off Andy Dalton. A big adjustment that has to make is cutting his pass attempts from 586 to closer to Russell Wilson’s number of 407.

To heck with the short stuff. The running game should open up the deep ball and with Jackson’s experience under Al Davis you can believe they’ll be running many more vertical routes.

It is worth noting that Wilson rushed 96 times last year compared to Dalton's 61. The Seahawks also had a nice 1-2 punch with Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, but the Hill-Gio combo could be just as formidable in 2014.

All being said, the Bengals should indeed look to take the ball out of Dalton's hands more this coming season and spread the workload out.

 

 

It's fine here.. In the future you can feel free to make individual threads for articles.  I personally feel it keeps things easier to read, but I guess that's a matter of opinion. I don't think there is a problem with too many Dalton threads so much as there was a problem with every thread becoming a Dalton thread with stale circular arguments.  I think as long people stay on topic there won't be a problem with "too many Dalton threads".


for the mods i was looking into the idea that someone else had posted about splitting threads before the reordering and from what i can tell you can do it from what i found was you have to click each individual post you want to separate and in the bottom right where your mod options are there is a "split" option

 

maybe try that out in the mod forum and see how it works before doing it on a normal thread

 

Thanks Jamie.

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