Article Andy Dalton's Struggles, Explained

[coup000]

I actually think this new method of posting every single article on the board is hurting the volume of conversation. Threads drop too quickly and it makes it hard to decide which thread to post a comment in if the articles are similar. What Khat did posting the article in here makes much more sense to me. Just my 2 cents.

[Jason]

I think its fairly obvious from both the article and the eye ball test that Andy and the offense did not handle blitzes particularly well. I think these struggles probablly stem from one of two things.

 

1.) Andy cant react quick enough after the snap to recognize where to put the ball 

 

or

 

2.) Gruden's offensive scheme was inadequately prepared for adjusting to blitzes.

 

Personally i think #2 is the more likely culprite, as i remember screaming at my TV screen numerous times about the lack of a safety valve or quick dump off option when the QB is under pressure. However, we'll know after this season because the odds are pretty low that successive OC's would BOTH be completely incapable of making the right adjustments.

 

Considering Andy faced the most "blitzes without pressure", I'd say at least those doing the protecting handled the blitz pretty well.

[|Lucid|]

I actually think this new method of posting every single article on the board is hurting the volume of conversation. Threads drop too quickly and it makes it hard to decide which thread to post a comment in if the articles are similar. What Khat did posting the article in here makes much more sense to me. Just my 2 cents.

 

I think the volume has been hurt by the schism and by the current downtime as far as the team goes.. This is typically the slowest time of year for this forum but your input is welcome and important,

 

We are still working through all of this so lets hear what everyone thinks and get it right.. 

[HairOnFire]

 

Considering Andy faced the most "blitzes without pressure", I'd say at least those doing the protecting handled the blitz pretty well.

 

That, or the ball was usually out of Dalton's hands faster than you can say...onetwothree...and to pretty good results overall.

 

If the bloggers analysis has any merit whatsoever it's rooted in the claim that Dalton grossly underperforms when a blitz isn't defeated by the OL or the QB himself and creates actual pressure.

 

In short, Dalton performs at his worst when his offensive line allows blitz pressure, which I have to assume includes the unblocked variety.

 

Meanwhile the blogger who wrote the article never asks where the pass pressure came from or how quickly or if Dalton had designated checkdown options available.

 

Nor does he look to see if the majority of successful blitzing was by the 3-4 defenses that Jay Gruden rarely had success against.

[B.A.B.]

I just had to do some pretty intense defending of Dalton in the barbershop today. I feel gross

[The PatternMaster]

 

 

 

Ok guys, lets cool it down a bit..

 

No need to pile on Kenneth..

 

Everyone, play nice..

 

So it is illegal to say anything not positive about Dalton around here or will certain people get their panties in a bunch and go to another MB? 

[|Lucid|]

 

So it is illegal to say anything negative around here or will certain people get their panties in a bunch and go to another MB? 

 

I only asked you guys to cool it because it was starting to get personal (specifically in your case, your response to Kenneth).. I didn't have a problem with your response to me.  Perhaps I should have bolded the objectionable content to make it more clear.

 

There will be no attempt to limit your speech as long as that it is not getting personal with another poster.

[HairOnFire]

I just had to do some pretty intense defending of Dalton in the barbershop today. I feel gross

 

 

Perhaps next time you should consider staying home & shaving your head.

[coup000]

 

That, or the ball was usually out of Dalton's hands faster than you can say...onetwothree...and to pretty good results overall.

 

If the bloggers analysis has any merit whatsoever it's rooted in the claim that Dalton grossly underperforms when a blitz isn't defeated by the OL or the QB himself and creates actual pressure.

 

In short, Dalton performs at his worst when his offensive line allows blitz pressure, which I have to assume includes the unblocked variety.

 

Meanwhile the blogger who wrote the article never asks where the pass pressure came from or how quickly or if Dalton had designated checkdown options available.

 

Nor does he look to see if the majority of successful blitzing was by the 3-4 defenses that Jay Gruden rarely had success against.

All QBs get worse with pressure, that isn't a surprise. It's a surprise that the mere act of sending a blitz, regardless of its result, significantly decreased the effectiveness of our passing game.  He also graded well on non blitz pressure, which further lends to the point that he (and the offense) for whatever reason do not handle blitzes well.

[scharm]

So it is illegal to say anything not positive about Dalton around here or will certain people get their panties in a bunch and go to another MB?

Yep, that's the deal

[|Lucid|]

Yep, that's the deal

 

No that is not the deal.  I explained quite clearly what the problem was.

[Bengals1181]

I actually think this new method of posting every single article on the board is hurting the volume of conversation. Threads drop too quickly and it makes it hard to decide which thread to post a comment in if the articles are similar. What Khat did posting the article in here makes much more sense to me. Just my 2 cents.

 

 

I concur.  This will become problematic once training camp starts and content quadruples.

[The PatternMaster]

 

 

I concur.  This will become problematic once training camp starts and content quadruples.

 

I disagree, it's not anything different that what has going on here for the past 5 or so years. 

[Bengals1181]

 

I disagree, it's not anything different that what has going on here for the past 5 or so years. 

 

 

it's actually exactly the opposite.

[|SF2|]

 

 

it's actually exactly the opposite.

I agree.  Once we start seeing the team do something, the 2nd half of the San Diego game finally starts to be forgotten to some degree.   Laying a turd in your last game gives guys like us 5 months to discuss it.  

 

I would be interested in knowing some inside information as to what exactly Andy's license was to change plays or freelance a bit at the line of scrimmage.   I have talked about his ill advised pass in the Baltimore game on first and one but I simply do not know what his relationship with Gruden was or what was expected of him in a situation like that.    For all I know, Andy was under orders to run the play sent in which might explain some of the questionable decisions based on defensive alignment.

 

We will certainly find out soon with Hue at the helm of the offense.  

[Bengals1181]

I agree.  Once we start seeing the team do something, the 2nd half of the San Diego game finally starts to be forgotten to some degree.   Laying a turd in your last game gives guys like us 5 months to discuss it.  

 

I would be interested in knowing some inside information as to what exactly Andy's license was to change plays or freelance a bit at the line of scrimmage.   I have talked about his ill advised pass in the Baltimore game on first and one but I simply do not know what his relationship with Gruden was or what was expected of him in a situation like that.    For all I know, Andy was under orders to run the play sent in which might explain some of the questionable decisions based on defensive alignment.

 

We will certainly find out soon with Hue at the helm of the offense.  

 

 

I think you might have quoted my post by mistake, but I can tackle this one:

 

It was originally a running play.  Dalton didn't like the defensive alignment and audibled to a pass play.  Other things we know:  Gruden said he failed to get the goal line personnel in there.  Further, Dalton apparently had full authority to take a shot to Green whenever Green had single coverage.

[HairOnFire]

All QBs get worse with pressure, that isn't a surprise. It's a surprise that the mere act of sending a blitz, regardless of its result, significantly decreased the effectiveness of our passing game. 

 

 

Seems to me the results of the blitz matter very much.

 

According to the stats linked in the article Dalton's QB rating when facing all blitzs is 86.8. w/twice as many TD's as picks.  

 

Compare that to a blitz that results in actual pressure where Dalton's QB rating plummets largely due to his completion percentage falling below 40%.

[|SF2|]

 

 

I think you might have quoted my post by mistake, but I can tackle this one:

 

It was originally a running play.  Dalton didn't like the defensive alignment and audibled to a pass play.  Other things we know:  Gruden said he failed to get the goal line personnel in there.  Further, Dalton apparently had full authority to take a shot to Green whenever Green had single coverage.

Well, then 3 people made mistakes on that play given the circumstances and the fact we had 3 timeouts.  

 

Andy should know better than to audible on 1st and goal from the 1 to a pass play given the score and where we were in that game.

 

Gruden should have called a time out when he realized he had the wrong personnel in there.

 

Marvin should have called a time out when he realized Gruden had his head up his ass.

[Bengals1181]

Well, then 3 people made mistakes on that play given the circumstances and the fact we had 3 timeouts.  

 

Andy should know better than to audible on 1st and goal from the 1 to a pass play given the score and where we were in that game.

 

Gruden should have called a time out when he realized he had the wrong personnel in there.

 

Marvin should have called a time out when he realized Gruden had his head up his ass.

 

 

agreed on all points.  I'd also throw in that Andy threw a bad ball and AJ made a half-assed effort to catch it.

[The PatternMaster]

Well, then 3 people made mistakes on that play given the circumstances and the fact we had 3 timeouts.  

 

Andy should know better than to audible on 1st and goal from the 1 to a pass play given the score and where we were in that game.

 

Gruden should have called a time out when he realized he had the wrong personnel in there.

 

Marvin should have called a time out when he realized Gruden had his head up his ass.

 

I remember after that game when Lap and Lance interviewed Gruden and they asked him specifically about that play and Gruden said that he gave Andy the green light to check to AJ in that situation and that since they were down a few guys in their goal line package was different due to injuries(Gresham, Eifert, Whit, & Collins were injured) Dalton decided to check out of the called play( a run) into a jump ball for AJ. He made a bad pass and it was intercepted. 

 

I don't think you can blame Gruden or Marvin for that play, if they called a run and Dalton checks out of the play and throws a pick then that's on the qb. He has to have enough belief in his teammates to know that they can get a yard if they have to and not try to be the hero. 

 

Thankfully Kirkpatrick had 2 int's in the 4th quarter to help seal the victory but that was a costly mistake that could have cost the team the game. You can't have those types of turnovers and expect to win in the NFL. 

[T-Dub]

At the risk of repeating anyone or suggesting that football is, in fact, a team sport..  Could this also point to the OL not doing a great job recognizing & picking up the blitz?

 

It would have been interesting (to me at least) to see if & how his numbers varied depending on whether the blitz was from one of the edges or up the middle.  Escaping the pocket to his left or right?  Obviously trying to roll out against pressure up the middle is a completely different situation.

 

I think this is the problem I (& others) have with PFF; it's like they form a theory and then set about trying to prove it. This article doesn't explain anything to me, it just raises more questions.

[Oldcat]

At the risk of repeating anyone or suggesting that football is, in fact, a team sport..  Could this also point to the OL not doing a great job recognizing & picking up the blitz?

 

It would have been interesting (to me at least) to see if & how his numbers varied depending on whether the blitz was from one of the edges or up the middle.  Escaping the pocket to his left or right?  Obviously trying to roll out against pressure up the middle is a completely different situation.

 

I think this is the problem I (& others) have with PFF; it's like they form a theory and then set about trying to prove it. This article doesn't explain anything to me, it just raises more questions.

 

Another problem with a short term study with limited statistics is that it might just be a fluke.  In prior, or subsequent years he might show an entirely different pattern. 

[Marvin]

Another problem with a short term study with limited statistics is that it might just be a fluke.  In prior, or subsequent years he might show an entirely different pattern.

While I agree for the most part, a complete season in the NFL is a meaningful sample. Especially for a player that only has three seasons from which to draw an attitude.

But, the fact that other players are also involved and the outcome is very context specific kind of makes the analysis moot.

[Oldcat]

While I agree for the most part, a complete season in the NFL is a meaningful sample. Especially for a player that only has three seasons from which to draw an attitude.

But, the fact that other players are also involved and the outcome is very context specific kind of makes the analysis moot.

 

That isn't how statistics works.  No matter how much you need it to work, if you don't have enough data you can't draw valid conclusions.

[|Bunghole|]

I have to generally agree with those whom pointed out that pressure on a QB is an obvious game changer of the outcome of a pass...it doesn't matter if it's Dalton or Brady, when guys are in their faces often, they don't play particularly well. That said, some QB's deal with pressure better than others...I'd rank Dalton below average in that category. That said, we've all complained at least a little about the interior line blocking, both on run and pass plays. Perhaps if that gets cleaned up then these types of things don't happen as often.

 

I think there's some kind of fine line between a QB that absolutely freaks out and heaves up passes in the face of intense pressure and those that maintain their calm. And of course there's some QB's that sense that pressure before others and make snap decisions on whether to bail, remain in the pocket in the dropback or do some side-stepping. 

 

I think this fine line is where Dalton will ultimately be judged after this season. He's up against a contract, he's played mostly well in the regular season but not well in the playoffs....I guess it's make or break time for Andy. I want him to do well but I have my doubts. Perhaps the o-line can achieve elite status this season and it won't matter. Again...we will have to see...