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AmishBengalFan Hall Of Fame

AmishBengalFan

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The draft site is UP and the clock is ticking.  27:43 and counting....

 

Here's the draft order - which the site asserts was randomly selected EVEN THO the Commish somehow got the #1 pick:

 

#1 - Bengals1181

#2 - Baraka

#3 - gatorclaws

#4 - Bengal 27

#5 - Fightin' Amish

#6 - Kevin Baconator

#7 - mongo's candygrams

#8 - Lions of Judah

#9 - Zin's Team

#10 - BigDawgBengal

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happyrid Hall Of Fame

happyrid

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This one is from August 1st, before the preseason started:

 

The old saying that "money talks" is especially true in trying to figure out how highly regarded an NFL player is by his own team. While a coach or general manager can spout any number of platitudes and compliments towards his players, his real opinion shines through when he sits down at the negotiating table and puts his job on the line by doling out huge sums of the owner's money to the players who he truly believes in. That belief (or lack of belief) shines through especially brightly when it comes to guaranteed money because that is where the rubber really hits the road. 

One of the areas in which the contract details are especially important to parse is when dealing with injury prone players. While football analysis available to the general public by media and bloggers has taken a quantum leap forward, there is still a great deal of information that never makes it from inside the walls of the NFL facilities out for public consumption. The biggest area where outsiders are left guessing while NFL front offices work with detailed information is with regard to detailed medical information. However, it is possible through close study of contractual details to make educated guesses as to what the team's medical reports are saying. 

TARGETS

The following players all signed relatively lucrative contracts this offseason and are potentially undervalued in the eyes of fantasty owners. They are recommended targets at their current ADP. 

EMMANUEL SANDERS

After a Super Bowl appearance, the Broncos faced some tough decisions in terms of trying to retain key personnel. They let some key contributors (Eric Decker, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Knowshon Moreno and others) walk away in free agency and only had enough cap space to target a few areas for outside upgrades. Nearly all of those outside additions were on the defensive side of the ball. The one key guy added to the offense was WR Emmanuel Sanders, who was signed as an unrestricted FA to a relatively lucrative 3 year, $15 million deal with $6 million in first year compensation fullly guaranteed. For a player like Sanders who has had some injury issues and never had a 1,000 yards receiving season, this was a relatively large investment and shows a real faith in his abilities and health. Sanders landed a more lucrative contractthan some other high profile free agent WRs like Julian Edelman.

ROADBLOCK

Clearly, the Broncos targeted Sanders at this price point with a plan in place for him to have a large role in the offense going forward, possibly as the number two WR. While he may not equal Eric Decker's 87 catches, 1,288 yards or 11 TDs, it should not be a huge surprise if he approaches some of those numbers as the contract indicates he was signed to be one ofPeyton Manning's primary targets. Even at his rising ADP of WR 29, Sanders is a good target.

KYLE RUDOLPH

Rudolph recently inked a suprisingly lucrative new contract making him one of the highest paid TEs in the NFL.  There were already some other strong reasons to consider Rudolph as a breakout candidate along the lines of Jordan Cameron in 2013. Norv Turner has been a bit of a TE guru and features the position prominently in his offense. In addition, Rudolph has flashed glimpses of potentially elite talent. The details of the contract recently inked by Rudolph should leave absolutely no doubt that he is a player upon whom the Vikings are going to rely heavily. Rudolph will recieve between $36 and $40 million (depending upon incentives) over the five years of his extension. The deal includes nearly $20 million in guaranteed money and the structure indicates that he is likely to see the full five years and there is no "funny money" with high salaries in the out years that he is not likely to see. In short, this is a legitimate $7-8 million per year deal which indicates that Rudolph will be a big part of the Vikings offense now and in the future and a great target for 2014 at his current ADP of TE 10.

ANDREW HAWKINS

The Cleveland Browns targeted Andrew Hawkins as a restricted free agent from their AFC North rival the Cincinnati Bengals this offseason. Hawkins was a highly respected member of the Bengals and a player the Bengals were expected to keep as the team had the right to match any offer sheet Hawkins signed. All of that changed however when the Browns made Hawkins a huge, front-loaded contract offer that paid him $6.8 million guaranteed and $10.8 million over the first two years of the contract. Hawkins' deal was the rare NFL contract in which the annual average value (approximately $3.5 million per year) actually understated the true financial commitment made by the team. Hawkins' $6.8 million guaranteed is also notable in relation to the other WR contracts the Browns handed out this offseason. Miles Austin received only $300,000 guaranteed and only $2 million total for his one year deal. Nate Burleson received a measly $65,000 guaranteed on his 1 year, $955,000 contract. Based upon the numbers, it seems clear that Hawkins is the one WR on the Browns who is guaranteed to be in the Browns' plans and a featured target for Brian Hoyer. He is a great target at his current ADP of WR 69.

DOUG BALDWIN

The Seattle Seahawks are going to have a hard time keeping all of their young talent in town as players like Richard Sherman, Percy Harvin and Earl Thomas have already cashed in on huge contracts. Russell Wilson will not be far behind. With cap space at a premium, it was a bit surprising to see the Seahawks reward restricted free agent Doug Baldwin with such a rich extension. With Baldwin already locked up for 2014 for $2.2 million, the Seahawks could have simply let him play out the year and approached negotiations on an extension next spring. Instead, Baldwin was given at least $11 million of new money to lock him up for the 2015 and 2016 seasons. The deal also contains realistic incentives that could push the annual average towards nearly $8 million per year. 

Baldwin is set to move to the X position recently vacated by Golden Tate and based upon the details of his new contract, the Seahawks expect him to be an important part of the passing offense going forward. He is a nice upside play at his current ADP of WR 62. 

DONALD BROWN

With Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead both under contract for 2014 after successful 2013 campaigns, RB was not expected to be a priority in free agency. That did not stop San Diego for quickly moving to give Donald Brown a lucrative 3 year, $10.5 million contract. Brown also received $4 million in guaranteed money, nearly twice as much as a higher profile player in Ben Tate. While it remains unclear exactly what role Brown is ticketed to play in the Chargers backfield, his contract makes clear that he should make an impact. While Brown describes the backfield as a "three-headed monster," he has been an afterthought for fantasy owners who have made Mathews and Woodhead the clear favorites in fantasy drafts. It may be worth re-assessing that view and looking at Brown as a player the Chargers have big plans for. While the RB situation in San Diego is murky, Donald Brown's current ADP of RB 61 makes him an attractive target as he may have a bigger role than many expect when the picture clears.

JEREMY MACLIN

Maclin is an interesting case. It was widely reported that he was basically forced to sign a one year "prove it" contract. That gives the impression that the only decent offer Maclin was able to procure was a short term deal due to the fact that he missed 2013 with an ACL tear. In fact, Maclin was offered a relatively lucrative five year contract by the Eagles. It was Maclin who turned it down and instead opted for the one year contract that, with playing time incentives will pay him $5.5 million for 2014. While this is not a huge money deal by any means, it is much richer and contains more guaranteed money than the usual "prove it" type contracts. It is almost identical in structure to the contract signed by Seahawks DE Michael Bennett last offseason.  While these type of short deals leave some room for interpretation, this deal looks more like a player betting on himself than it does a contract in which the team was not willing to make a long term bet. For that reason, I would recommend targeting Jeremy Maclin at his current ADP of WR 26 without worrying about the short-term nature of his current contract. 

  PLAYERS TO AVOID

Surprisingly low contract figures, with little to no guaranteed money, indicate that the player may not be as highly thought of as many in the general public may perceive or that a player has injury concerns that go beyond what is public knowledge. Those are players fantasty owners should avoid. In addition, these overrated players may overshadow other teammates who are flying under the radar and present great value later in drafts. 

BEN TATE

There was a perception in March that Ben Tate would be the top free agent RB on the market. It was also assumed that the Browns, with a clear opening at the position and a strong offensive line, were one of the top landing spots for a talented runner. When Tate landed with the Browns it generated a great deal of fantasty excitement. However, based on the details of his contract, it is clear that Tate was not the hot free agent commodity that many assumed. Tate was able to land only a modest $2.5 million in guaranteed money. That includes a $1.5 million signing bonus and his first year salary of $1 million. Compared to other RBs like Toby Gerhart, Rashad Jennings and Donald Brown, Ben Tate's deal comes up short. In addition to the small guaranteed totals, the deal is for a relatively modest 2 year, $4.7 million total that can climb to $6.2 million if Tate plays in every game. 

The financial details should be a stark reminder that even the Cleveland Browns have doubts about Tate's ability to stay healthy and be a feature back. The contract indicates that despite reports and speculation to the contrary, the starting RB job in Cleveland is probably still very much up for grabs between Ben Tate and Terrance West. The Browns traded up to jump ahead of the Baltimore Ravens to snag West and he has been regularly impressing observers so far at training camp. Based upon the current Tate's current ADP of RB 23, Terrance West at an ADP of RB 39 may be the better target in the Cleveland backfield.

ANDRE BROWN

Brown has been a popular later round target as many assumed that when he inked with Houston in the offseason, that he was clearly signed to be the primary backup to Arian Foster. However, the contract says otherwise. Suprisingly, Andre Brown got no signing bonus and a tiny salary of $645,000 on his one year deal. The contract looks like one that would be seen for a guy who is merely "camp fodder." While Brown may well make the team, the idea that he is the clear handcuff to Foster or that he was a highly sought after free agent is likely inaccurate. 

Instead of Brown with a current ADP of RB 53, perhaps fantasy owners should be focusing on rookie 6th rounder Alfred Blue with an ADP outside of the top 82 RBs. The rookie who Les Miles called a "steal" made a strong early impression on coaches and is a great late round target who is barely on the radar of most drafters.

 
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happyrid Hall Of Fame

happyrid

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Here is another one from the last week of the preseason. Not sure how well it will copy over in terms of formatting but I'll give it a shot:

 

Edit: Yeah, the charts did not copy over so parts are just messy text so much of it is kind of worthless...

 

DYNASTY TRADE VALUE CHART

In a 12 Team League with PPR scoring and a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, here are the top 100 most valuable non-rookies:

Rank First Last Position Value 1 A.J. Green WR 48 2 Dez Bryant WR 46 3 Jimmy Graham TE 42 4 Demaryius Thomas WR 40 5 Calvin Johnson WR 39 6 Julio Jones WR 38 7 McCoy LeSean RB 34 8 Alshon Jeffery WR 33 9 Jamaal Charles RB 31 10 Eddie Lacy RB 30 11 Giovani Bernard RB 30 12 Rob Gronkowski TE 30 13 Antonio Brown WR 29 14 Keenan Allen WR 28 15 Jordy Nelson WR 28 16 Le'Veon Bell RB 26 17 Andrew Luck QB 24 18 Randall Cobb WR 23 19 Brandon Marshall WR 22 20 Montee Ball RB 22 21 Aaron Rodgers QB 22 22 Cordarrelle Patterson WR 22 23 DeMarco Murray RB 21 24 Jordan Cameron TE 20 25 Michael Floyd WR 19 26 Pierre Garcon WR 18 27 Victor Cruz WR 18 28 Adrian Peterson RB 17 29 Cam Newton QB 17 30 Percy Harvin WR 16 31 Julius Thomas TE 15 32 Kendall Wright WR 15 33 Matt Forte RB 15 34 Doug Martin RB 15 35 Drew Brees QB 15 36 Desean Jackson WR 15 37 Justin Hunter WR 14 38 Matthew Stafford QB 14 39 Torrey Smith WR 14 40 Josh Gordon WR 14 41 Vincent Jackson WR 13 42 Tyler Eifert TE 12 43 Michael Crabtree WR 12 44 Peyton Manning QB 12 45 Andre Ellington RB 12 46 T.Y. Hilton WR 11 47 Kyle Rudolph TE 11 48 Emmanuel Sanders WR 11 49 Eric Decker WR 11 50 Marshawn Lynch RB 11 51 Ladarius Green TE 9 52 Larry Fitzgerald WR 9 53 Trent Richardson RB 9 54 Jordan Reed TE 9 55 Andre Johnson WR 9 56 Roddy White WR 9 57 Zac Stacy RB 9 58 C.J. Spiller RB 9 59 Shane Vereen RB 9 60 Nick Foles QB 9 61 Charles Clay TE 8 62 Juilain Edelman WR 8 63 Mike Wallace WR 8 64 Marvin Jones WR 8 65 Terrance Williams WR 8 66 Christine Michael RB 8 67 Reggie Bush RB 8 68 Ryan Mathews RB 8 69 Zach Ertz TE 7 70 Ray Rice RB 7 71 Joique Bell RB 7 72 Arian Foster RB 7 73 Rashad Jennings RB 7 74 Marques Colston WR 6 75 Alfred Morris RB 6 76 Robert GriffinIII QB 6 77 Russell Wilson QB 6 78 Matt Ryan QB 6 79 Ben Tate RB 5 80 Golden Tate WR 5 81 Pierre Thomas RB 5 82 Andy Dalton QB 5 83 Tony Romo QB 5 84 Greg Olsen TE 5 85 Doug Baldwin WR 5 86 Colin Kaepernick QB 5 87 Martellus Bennett TE 4 88 Riley Cooper WR 4 89 Reggie Wayne WR 4 90 Chris Johnson RB 4 91 Jason Witten TE 4 92 Brian Hartline WR 4 93 Cecil Shorts WR 4 94 Anquan Boldin WR 4 95 Wes Welker WR 3 96 Danny Amendola WR 3 97 Fred Jackson RB 3 98 Frank Gore RB 3 99 Vernon Davis TE 3 100 Tom Brady QB 3

In addition to a 1-100 ranking, this chart also includes a numerical trade value for each player. This value should be used as a rough guide in valuing players for purposes of making trades. 

For example, A.J. Green has a trade value of 48, Keenan Allen has a trade value of 28 and Jordan Cameron has a trade value of 20. Thus, trading A.J. Green for Keenan Allen and Jordan Cameron would be an even trade. Each team would receive 48 points worth of value.

METHODOLOGY

The dynasty valuations seen above are based upon a formula that takes into account:

ROADBLOCK

1. Projected scoring in 2014

2. Projected scoring in 2015 and beyond

3. Career longevity for each player.

Let's use Andrew Luck as an example...

The starting point for calculating Andrew Luck's dynasty value is to determine his 2014 value. My projections have Luck scoring 22.5 points per game. The next step is to figure out what PPG total should be used as our "Baseline" for QBs. The baseline is an approximation of what would be considered "replacement level" production. There is a bit of art involved here, but essentially we are picking a PPG total that is just a notch below the worst starter at the position. My projections show 14 QBs should score 20 PPG or more in 2014, so that will be our baseline for a 12 team league with 1 starting QB per team. Thus, Andrew Luck's 2014 value is 22.5 PPG - 20 PPG= 2.5. 

The next step in calculating Luck's dynasty value is to determine his value for the seasons of 2015 and beyond. Again, we start with projections and they show Luck averaging 23.5 PPG through the rest of his career. We go back to our baseline of 20 PPG and subtract to figure out that in future years, Andrew Luck's annual value will be approximately 3.5 per year. We will multiply this by his "Longevity Factor" to determine his value in 2015 and beyond. 

How do we determine Longevity Factor? One method would be to simply estimate the number of years a player will play. There would be some merit to this approach. Especially with a player as talented and productive as Luck. One could argue that Luck will likely play through the year 2026 and that his longevity factor should be 12. However, this approach seems flawed. It simply does not make sense to count projected 2026 production as equally valuable to 2014 production. There are simply too many variables and thus we need to discount future production in some way. The way chosen is to use a longevity factor which serves as a way to compare player vs. player to project which players are the safest bets to have long and productive careers. Luck ranks at the top of this list and thus earns a 6 which is the highest possible Longevity Factor score and thus the highest of any player overall. 

Longevity Factor and how it is calculated for each position will be discussed in much greater detail below, but for now let's get back to Andrew Luck. Luck's 2015 and beyond projected annual value of 3.5 multiplied by his Longevity Factor score of 6 gives us a future value of 21. Add his future value of 21 to his 2014 value of 2.5 and we get Andrew Luck's Dynasty Trade Value score of 23.5.

 QB DYNASTY TRADE VALUE CALCULATIONS First Last 2013 2014 2015+ LF Baseline Value Andrew Luck 21.4 22.5 23.5 6 20 23.5 Aaron Rodgers 22.3 24 24 4.5 20 22 Cam Newton 21.6 21.5 22.5 6 20 16.5 Matthew Stafford 21.8 23 22 5.5 20 14 Drew Brees 26.5 25 24 2.5 20 15 Peyton Manning 30.0 26 24 1.5 20 12 Nick Foles 22.5 22.5 21.5 4 20 8.5 Robert GriffinIII 20.1 21.5 21 4 20 5.5 Russell Wilson 19.9 20.5 21 5 20 5.5 Matt Ryan 19.6 20.5 21 5 20 5.5 Colin Kaepernick 19.3 20 21 4.5 20 4.5 Andy Dalton 22.1 20.5 21 4.5 20 5 Tony Romo 20.7 22 21 3 20 5 Tom Brady 19.3 21 21 1.5 20 2.5

The top two QBs in our ranking system are Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. While Rodgers is projected to be a slightly higher scorer than Luck, Luck edges out Rodgers in terms of overall value due to career longevity. Rodgers is 30 years old which seems to be put him right in the middle of his prime years as NFL QBs are productive well into their 30s. Thus Rodgers earns a solid 4.5 score on LF ("Longevity Factor"). Andrew Luck is 24 and just starting to enter his prime years. He should have an incredibly long and productive career and thus earns the maximum LF score of 6. 

Further down the list, we have Peyton Manning who provides an interesting contrast to some of the other most highly valued dynasty QBs. Manning's Dynasty Trade Value of 12 is based 50% on his 2014 value (26 PPG-20 PPG = 6) and 50% on his future value (4 PPG advantage x 1.5 LF = 6). These values are determined in a vacuum and do not take into account the rest of an owner's roster. For an owner with an older roster who is in "win now" mode, Manning's high 2014 value could be extremely attractive despite his low LF. This owner may value Manning higher than his overall score of 12 and be willing to overpay (in terms of the above chart) to procure his services. On the other hand, an owner that is rebuilding and focused upon winning over the long term, may value Manning less than the average owner and thus may be willing to sell him at a slight discount. 

In looking at the QB calculations, some may be wondering why some young players have relatively low LF scores. For example, Robert Griffin III only scores a 4 on LF. Griffin III is actually seven months younger than Andrew Luck. So why different scores? While age is the biggest factor in the Longevity Factor, it is not the only determinant of the score. Injury concerns also factor in. Luck is simply a safer bet than Griffin III to have a long, healthy career. In addition, LF is designed to take into account the likelihood that a player is able to maintain above replacement level productivity. Griffin III still ranks relatively high with his score of 4, but he is not necessarily a lock to consistently exceed the 20 PPG baseline as his 2013 performance illustrates.

RB DYNASTY TRADE VALUE CALCULATIONS First Last 2013 2014 2015+ LF Baseline Value McCoy LeSean 20.7 21 20 2.5 10.5 34.25 Jamaal Charles 25.2 22 20 2 10.5 30.5 Eddie Lacy 16.2 16.5 16.5 4 10.5 30 Giovani Bernard 14.0 16.5 16.5 4 10.5 30 Le'Veon Bell 16.7 16 15.5 4 10.5 25.5 Montee Ball 6.4 17.5 15.5 3 10.5 22 DeMarco Murray 19.0 18 17 2 10.5 20.5 Adrian Peterson 16.6 18 17 1.5 10.5 17.25 Matt Forte 20.0 19 17 1 10.5 15 Doug Martin 11.7 15 14 3 10.5 15 Andre Ellington 11.3 14.5 13 3 10.5 11.5 Marshawn Lynch 17.2 16.5 15 1 10.5 10.5 Trent Richardson 8.8 13 13 2.5 10.5 8.75 Zac Stacy 13.5 14 13 2 10.5 8.5 C.J. Spiller 9.7 14 13 2 10.5 8.5 Shane Vereen 17.3 14 13 2 10.5 8.5 Christine Michael 1.0 10.5 13.5 2.5 10.5 7.5 Reggie Bush 17.1 15.5 13 1 10.5 7.5 Ryan Mathews 12.9 13 13 2 10.5 7.5 Ray Rice 11.7 14 13 1.5 10.5 7.25 Joique Bell 13.8 12.5 13 2 10.5 7 Arian Foster 13.6 15 13 1 10.5 7 Rashad Jennings 12.2 13.5 13 1.5 10.5 6.75 Alfred Morris 11.3 12 12 3 10.5 6 Ben Tate 10.4 13.5 12 1.5 10.5 5.25 Pierre Thomas 13.6 12.5 12 2 10.5 5 Chris Johnson 14.5 13 12 1 10.5 4 Fred Jackson 14.3 13 11 1 10.5 3 Frank Gore 12.6 12.5 12 0.5 10.5 2.75 Maurice Jones-Drew 12.5 12 12 0.5 10.5 2.25 Danny Woodhead 14.0 12 10 1 10.5 1 Darren Sproles 12.2 11 10 0 10.5 0.5 Steven Jackson 12.2 11 10 0 10.5 0.5

The two most valuable players in our 2014 projections, LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles, are also the two most valuable dynasty RBs overall. Unlike the QB position, it is extremely difficult to rely on long term production from the RB position. RBs have shorter careers, are more prone to injury and are more dependent upon factors outside of their control (Offensive Line play, play calling, etc.) than other position. Thus, the highest maximum LF score for RBs in only 4. Again, the LF is not a guess as to how many productive years the player will have left. It is a tool to compare players to each other as we try to determine the future value that each is likely to have. 

In perusing the LF scores above, one should notice that they are lower than at any other position. This should make sense from a logical perspective. Would you be willing to bet on any RB being a valuable fantasty contributor 6 or 7 years from now?

A low LF score of 1.5 also knocks a player like Adrian Peterson down the list. I expect Peterson's ranking will be somewhat controversial as some will argue he should not be ranked below unproven backs like Bell, Bernard, Ball and Lacy. However, Peterson turns 30 years old in six months. It is simply unwise to project him to be highly productive three or four years from now. Of course, Peterson could be the rare RB who continues to put up huge stats into his mid-30s. If that ends up being the case, his Dynasty Trade Value Score of 17.5 will prove to have been too low. One of the most enjoyable aspects of the dynasty experience is that as an owner, you can bet on players you truly believe in and if you feel Peterson is such a freak of nature that he will have many more productive season, you should value him accordingly.

Another player that is ranked lower than he is often taken in startup drafts is Arian Foster. The 28-year-old Foster has been incredibly productive over the past four seasons and remains the starter in Houston. However, his heavy workload seems to have taken a physical toll on him. In addition, he will have to transition to a new offensive scheme that will be far less RB-friendly. Projecting big numbers beyond this season for Foster is especially problematic as his contract is essentially a series of one year team options with very little dead money which means Houston could decide to move on before Foster hits age 30.

 WR DYNASTY TRADE VALUE CALCULATIONS Last First 2013 2014 2015+ LF Baseline Value A.J. Green 19.4 19 19 5 11 48 Dez Bryant 17.9 19 18.5 5 11 45.5 Julio Jones 21.9 17.5 18 4.5 11 38 Demaryius Thomas 19.3 19 18 4.5 11 39.5 Calvin Johnson 21.7 20 19.5 3.5 11 38.75 Alshon Jeffery 18.3 16.5 17 4.5 11 32.5 Antonio Brown 19.4 18 16.5 4 11 29 Keenan Allen 14.8 16 16 4.5 11 27.5 Randall Cobb 17.3 16 15.5 4 11 23 Jordy Nelson 15.9 17.5 17 3.5 11 27.5 Brandon Marshall 19.1 18 17 2.5 11 22 Cordarrelle Patterson 8.0 14.5 15.5 4 11 21.5 Michael Floyd 12.4 14 15 4 11 19 Pierre Garcon 17.7 15 15 3.5 11 18 Victor Cruz 13.9 15 15 3.5 11 18 Percy Harvin 0.0 14.5 14.5 3.5 11 15.75 Kendall Wright 13.6 14 14 4 11 15 Desean Jackson 17.6 15 14.5 3 11 14.5 Justin Hunter 6.5 13 14 4 11 14 Torrey Smith 13.2 13.5 13.5 4.5 11 13.75 Josh Gordon 23.0 10.5 18 2 11 13.5 Vincent Jackson 15.7 15.5 15 2 11 12.5 Michael Crabtree 11.9 14 14 3 11 12 T.Y. Hilton 13.0 13 13 4.5 11 11 Emmanuel Sanders 11.8 14 13.5 3 11 10.5 Eric Decker 17.8 14 14 2.5 11 10.5 Larry Fitzgerald 14.6 14 14 2 11 9 Andre Johnson 17.9 15 14 1.5 11 8.5 Roddy White 9.8 15 14 1.5 11 8.5 Juilain Edelman 15.6 14.5 13 2 11 7.5 Mike Wallace 12.4 12.5 12.5 4 11 7.5 Marvin Jones 11.4 12.5 12.5 4 11 7.5 Terrance Williams 9.5 12.5 12.5 4 11 7.5 Marques Colston 13.3 13 13 2 11 6 Golden Tate 10.7 12 12 4 11 5 Doug Baldwin 10.6 11.5 12 4 11 4.5 Riley Cooper 11.8 12 12 3 11 4 Reggie Wayne 14.7 14 12 1 11 4 Brian Hartline 13.1 12.5 12 2 11 3.5 Cecil Shorts 12.4 12.5 12 2 11 3.5 Anquan Boldin 14.3 13.5 12 1 11 3.5 Wes Welker 16.2 14 11 0 11 3 Danny Amendola 11.6 12 12 2 11 3 Markus Wheaton 0.0 11 11.5 4 11 2 Greg Jennings 11.6 12.5 11 2 11 1.5 Dwayne Bowe 10.3 11.5 11.5 2 11 1.5

 As the overall rankings indicate, the top of the Dynasty Trade Value list is dominated by WRs. Whereas RBs generally experience shorter careers and face an incredibly high risk of injury, the top WRs usually are able to maintain high levels of production into their early 30s. The longer productive shelf life means the maximum LF for WRs is set at 5. While this is lower than QB (max. of 6), it is higher than RB (max. of 4). A player like A.J. Green who just turned 26, has not shown to be injury prone and who should not see any negative changes to his situation ranks at the top of the list scoring the maximum LF of 5. It would be a surprise if Green is not still a highly productive WR in five years when he will be 30-years-old and still in his prime.

Finding seperation amongst the top five WRs is extemely difficult as all have strong factors in their favor. It requires a bit of nitpicking, to set the five in order. The primary factor knocking Julio Jones down is that he has not been able to stay healthy for a full season in his three year career. This is a risk factor that simply is not present with the other four elite WRs and this is reflected in his LF. Demaryius Thomas also has a bit of injury history, though he has been healthy of late. The biggest factor keeping him from the top spot is the fact that he is not likely to be playing with Peyton Manning for many more years and Denver does not have a strong replacement lined up at QB yet and thus his production could suffer over the long term. Calvin Johnson has been the most valuable player in dynasty for a few years. However, his age is starting to become a bit of a factor when projecting long term value. Unlike the other elite WRs, Calvin Johnson will be 34 years old in five years. While players like Green, Bryant, Jones and Thomas are still likely to be in their prime, Johnson will be nearing retirement and this is reflected in his LF.

The next tier of WRs includes Alshon Jeffery, Keenan Allen and Randall Cobb. Each of these players is extremely young and highly talented. However, it still remains to be seen whether any of the three will be available to take their game to an elite level and repeat success over a number of years. There is both a high risk and high reward in choosing one of these players. With a big season in 2014, any of these three players could shoot up the Dynasty Trade Value list and join the truly elite tier. The risk is obvious however in that none of these guys has enough of a track record to safely project big numbers for 2014, much less for the long term. Plus, Cobb is scheduled to hit free agency next spring. News of Jordy Nelson's contract extension actually jumped him past Cobb in the latest update as the assurance of assurance of continuing to play with Aaron Rodgers closed the LF between the two players enough to push Nelson past Cobb. If Cobb was to sign an extension with Green Bay and show an ability to stay healthy, he would likely leapfrog back over Nelson due to his age.

TE DYNASTY TRADE VALUE CALCULATIONS  First Last 2013 2014 2015+ LF Baseline Value Jimmy Graham 19.0 18 17.5 4.5 10 41.75 Rob Gronkowski 17.5 17 16.5 3.5 10 29.75 Jordan Cameron 14.4 14.5 13.5 4.5 10 20.25 Julius Thomas 15.9 14.5 13 3.5 10 15 Tyler Eifert 6.4 11 12.5 4.5 10 12.25 Kyle Rudolph 9.9 11.5 12 4.5 10 10.5 Ladarius Green 5.4 11 12 4 10 9 Jordan Reed 12.7 12.5 12 3 10 8.5 Charles Clay 12.0 11.5 11.5 4 10 7.5 Zach Ertz 6.6 10.5 11.5 4.5 10 7.25 Greg Olsen 11.6 11.5 11 3 10 4.5 Martellus Bennett 11.1 11 11 3 10 4 Jason Witten 12.0 12 11 1.5 10 3.5 Vernon Davis 14.3 11 10.5 3 10 2.5 Heath Miller 9.0 11 10.5 2 10 2

 Jimmy Graham can no longer be denied his rightful place as a top 10 overall player in terms of Dynasty Trade Value. In fact, Graham may be closer to #1 overall than he is top #10. The freshly signed four year contract extension to stay in New Orleans with Drew Brees and the high octane Saints offense helps as well. 

Rob Gronkowski is the second highest ranked TE by a good margin. While Gronkowski is still young, he has a relatively modest LF of 3.5 due to the fact that he has ended the season on Injured Reserve three straight seasons. Longevity is a product of both age and health. In addition, Gronkowski may not have future Hall of Famer Tom Brady throwing him the ball three or four years down the line, which could cut into his productivity. Still, Gronkowski remains one of the truly elite players in the game when healthy and provides a huge fantasy advantage to his owners when he is able to suit up. 

In a tier of their own are Jordan Cameron and Julius Thomas. Cameron slightly edges Thomas because he has shown the ability to produce without an elite QB whereas Thomas' only productive season happened to coincide with the biggest QB season in NFL history. It will be interesting to see if Thomas can remain a fantasy difference-maker without Peyton Manning. Also working against Thomas is the fact that he will be a free agent after the season and the Broncos may have to use the franchise tag on WR Demaryius Thomas. Should Thomas leave Denver and land with a less talented QB, his value could fall dramatically.

After the top four, there is a large group of interesting young TEs with undetermined upside. It really comes down to personal preference. Eifert comes in fifth by a hair due to his elite talent and the fact that he could see increased production should Jermaine Gresham leave as a free agent after the upcoming season. Jordan Reed has a strong case to be ranked fifth himself, however his LF score is impacted by the high number of concussions he has suffered. It is difficult to project a long career for Reed due to this factor.

WHERE ARE THE ROOKIES?

As noted above, these rankings currently include only veterans. This is on purpose as the rookies will be added to the Dynasty Trade Value chart later this week as a differnt methodology will be used to determine their value. This methodology will require a lengthy explanation and thus is slated for a seperate article. If you are drafting now and cannot wait, please check my rankings on Footballguys.com as the rookies are included in those rankings.

WHAT IF MY LEAGUE HAS DIFFERENT SCORING OR DIFFERENT ROSTER REQUIREMENTS?

Be on the lookout for a follow-up article next week that gives multiple Dynasty Trade Value charts that are designed to take into account different scoring rules and league types including 2 QB, Superflex, TE Premium and others.

FINAL THOUGHTS

1. The hope is that these rankings will prove a useful tool for use during a startup draft. This method has proven successful in the past in assembling true "dynasty" teams that are able to compete for the championship every year instead of having to settle for a short run followed by a period of rebuilding. In addition, these rankings should provide useful guidance in assessing and making trade offers to improve your roster and chances of long term success. 

2. Even if the rankings and trade value calculations are not used directly, hopefully the article will at least provide some food for thought. It is always difficult to determine long term player value, but at least making the attempt to quantify value in some meaningful way is an illuminating exercise.

3. If you like the ranking and value concepts explained above, you may be interested in tweaking the assumptions to arrive at values that reflect your own personal views on players in terms of 2014 projections, future projections and longevity factor. If so, please feel free to direct messages me in the forums or contact me on twitter (@hindery) and I will email you a spreadsheet in which you can easily and quickly make the rankings your own. 

4. Feedback is always appreciated so feel free to let me know which values you disagree with and why. My hope is to be able to continually improve,  refine and update these rankings and values so they truly help you dominate your dynasty league.

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