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AFC PLAYOFF FORECAST


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Guest oldschooler
AFC PLAYOFF FORECAST

Who will make it to the playoffs in the AFC? Using a Super Computer, the StatShark simulation engine has played all regular season games 10,000 times each. Because quality of teams varies greatly within and between conferences, the best NFL teams are not necessarily the ones with the best odds of making the playoffs. StatShark's value is in showing how a team?s performance within their conference and division translates to play-off contention.

During each simulated season the super computer has tabulated the number of times that each team made the playoffs either as a division winner or as a wild-card. In the event of a tie StatShark reviews the record the tying teams had vs. each other and their conference records. In a small number of cases the tie-breaker rules were inconclusive.

StatShark has also tabulated the number of victories each team had in each simulation. The second table below shows the exact probability that each team has of winning anywhere from 16 victories down to 0 victories.

BALTIMORE
STATSHARK ANALYST: Not surprisingly, this Pro-Bowl laden team is at the top of the Division given StatShark's emphasis on tangible performance. Last year they were without a legit #1 or #2 WR suffered injuries / suspensions to Jamal Lewis and Todd Heap. With these healthy returns and the addition of WRs Derrick Mason, and Mark Clayton Baltimore is poised to take this Division, even without tremendous improvement by Kyle Boller.
THE DOCTOR: Will the real Kyle Boller please stand up. The Ravens are gearing their entire offensive scheme around the abilities of Boller. That would either payoff in spades or if Kyle fails to produce, make for a very frustrating season. The Ravens have proven they can run the ball but without a solid passing attack to balance it out, they could be in trouble. The acquisition of free agents like Mason and the healthy return of Heap should give Kyle the weapons he needs to succeed.

PITTSBURGH
STATSHARK ANALYST: Their #2 finish in Division Winner % is not due to any decline in performance, but more reflective of the additions Baltimore made. Ultimately, expect a neck and neck race with the winner of the Division depending on head-to-head performance.
THE DOCTOR: The Steelers look poised make the Play-Offs. Last year was certainly well above expectations but I am not sure they can repeat last year's Cinderella story. Look for them to be in the hunt at the end of the season but slightly below last year's results.

[b]CINCINNATI
STATSHARK ANALYST: An improving team whose upside (possibility of winning more than their average of 8) is bigger than their downside. StatShark expects steady improvement from Carson Palmer. Rapid improvement could take this team to the next level and create a 3 team race for the Division.
THE DOCTOR: Year three of Marvin Lewis has the Bengals full of hope. I swear I have written this before. Several times before. Will this season be different' Hard for me to buy in on improvement when Cincy still has among the worst ownership in the league. Yet, a strong rushing game and burgeoning passing attack with Johnson and Johnson give the hope some credence. [/b]

CLEVELAND
STATSHARK ANALYST: Frankly surprised by their winning 0.8% of simulated seasons. That's almost a 100 to 1 shot.
THE DOCTOR: Tough team to call, not in terms of whether they will win or lose (they will lose, a lot), but whether they will keep games close and beat the point spread. Not sure how a great new coach, Romeo Crennell, can possibly turn this team around by himself when you have injuries to Kellen Winslow, Trent Dilfer starting, and your three best players all playing the same position (RB Lee Suggs, Reuben Droughns, William Green).




[img]http://www.wunderdog.com/images/statshark/statsharkafcpreview-070505.png[/img]


[img]http://www.wunderdog.com/images/statshark/statsharkafcpreview2-070505.png[/img]


[img]http://www.wunderdog.com/images/statshark/afc-north.png[/img]



[url="http://www.wunderdog.com/2005-NFL-preview.html"]http://www.wunderdog.com/2005-NFL-preview.html[/url]
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Guest Bengal_Smoov
[quote name='oldschooler' date='Jul 26 2005, 04:03 PM']AFC PLAYOFF FORECAST

Who will make it to the playoffs in the AFC? Using a Super Computer, the StatShark simulation engine has played all regular season games 10,000 times each. Because quality of teams varies greatly within and between conferences, the best NFL teams are not necessarily the ones with the best odds of making the playoffs. StatShark's value is in showing how a team?s performance within their conference and division translates to play-off contention.

During each simulated season the super computer has tabulated the number of times that each team made the playoffs either as a division winner or as a wild-card. In the event of a tie StatShark reviews the record the tying teams had vs. each other and their conference records. In a small number of cases the tie-breaker rules were inconclusive.

StatShark has also tabulated the number of victories each team had in each simulation. The second table below shows the exact probability that each team has of winning anywhere from 16 victories down to 0 victories.

BALTIMORE
STATSHARK ANALYST: Not surprisingly, this Pro-Bowl laden team is at the top of the Division given StatShark's emphasis on tangible performance. Last year they were without a legit #1 or #2 WR suffered injuries / suspensions to Jamal Lewis and Todd Heap. With these healthy returns and the addition of WRs Derrick Mason, and Mark Clayton Baltimore is poised to take this Division, even without tremendous improvement by Kyle Boller.
THE DOCTOR: Will the real Kyle Boller please stand up. The Ravens are gearing their entire offensive scheme around the abilities of Boller. That would either payoff in spades or if Kyle fails to produce, make for a very frustrating season. The Ravens have proven they can run the ball but without a solid passing attack to balance it out, they could be in trouble. The acquisition of free agents like Mason and the healthy return of Heap should give Kyle the weapons he needs to succeed.

PITTSBURGH
STATSHARK ANALYST: Their #2 finish in Division Winner % is not due to any decline in performance, but more reflective of the additions Baltimore made. Ultimately, expect a neck and neck race with the winner of the Division depending on head-to-head performance.
THE DOCTOR: The Steelers look poised make the Play-Offs. Last year was certainly well above expectations but I am not sure they can repeat last year's Cinderella story. Look for them to be in the hunt at the end of the season but slightly below last year's results.

[b]CINCINNATI
STATSHARK ANALYST: An improving team whose upside (possibility of winning more than their average of 8) is bigger than their downside. StatShark expects steady improvement from Carson Palmer. Rapid improvement could take this team to the next level and create a 3 team race for the Division.
THE DOCTOR: Year three of Marvin Lewis has the Bengals full of hope. I swear I have written this before. Several times before. Will this season be different' Hard for me to buy in on improvement when Cincy still has among the worst ownership in the league. Yet, a strong rushing game and burgeoning passing attack with Johnson and Johnson give the hope some credence. [/b]

CLEVELAND
STATSHARK ANALYST: Frankly surprised by their winning 0.8% of simulated seasons. That's almost a 100 to 1 shot.
THE DOCTOR: Tough team to call, not in terms of whether they will win or lose (they will lose, a lot), but whether they will keep games close and beat the point spread. Not sure how a great new coach, Romeo Crennell, can possibly turn this team around by himself when you have injuries to Kellen Winslow, Trent Dilfer starting, and your three best players all playing the same position (RB Lee Suggs, Reuben Droughns, William Green).
[img]http://www.wunderdog.com/images/statshark/statsharkafcpreview-070505.png[/img]
[img]http://www.wunderdog.com/images/statshark/statsharkafcpreview2-070505.png[/img]
[img]http://www.wunderdog.com/images/statshark/afc-north.png[/img]
[url="http://www.wunderdog.com/2005-NFL-preview.html"]http://www.wunderdog.com/2005-NFL-preview.html[/url]
[right][post="119715"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

Now this dip shit is an asshat or whatever you call em`. Why did he have to say that about the Brown family? They have done more than anyone thought they were capable of doing in this rebuilding process. When we make the playoffs this year, will the ownership suddenly get better? No, for the past 3 years they have taken the neccessary steps to better the franchise, wunderdog is an asshat.
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Guest oldschooler
[quote name='Bengal_Smoov' date='Jul 26 2005, 03:09 PM']Now this dip shit is an asshat or whatever you call em`.  Why did he have to say that about the Brown family?  They have done more than anyone thought they were capable of doing in this rebuilding process.  When we make the playoffs this year, will the ownership suddenly get better?  No, for the past 3 years they have taken the neccessary steps to better the franchise, wunderdog is an asshat.
[right][post="119718"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]



Yeah...I ran across this after posting the other article...


I have enough to go around though... [img]http://forum.go-bengals.com/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/15.gif[/img]


[img]http://radio.weblogs.com/0111734/images/asshat_award2.jpg[/img]
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[quote name='Bengal_Smoov' date='Jul 26 2005, 03:09 PM']Now this dip shit is an asshat or whatever you call em`.  Why did he have to say that about the Brown family?  They have done more than anyone thought they were capable of doing in this rebuilding process.  When we make the playoffs this year, will the ownership suddenly get better?  No, for the past 3 years they have taken the neccessary steps to better the franchise, wunderdog is an asshat.
[right][post="119718"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]


This dickhead went through a lot of trouble to come up with a pile of tripe. He's probably from Spittsburgh. [img]http://forum.go-bengals.com/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/30.gif[/img]
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Oh my, have I offended the Brown family? This is the Doctor (forced to change my persona to SportsDog so as not to conflict with Doc Sports) and hey...wake up. I am not saying the Bengals will be bad but please people...how many times I can count when I thought the Bengals had FINALLY turned the corner only to watch them implode around mid-season. I would love nothing more than Cincy to come up to the plate and they have the talent on the field to do it but they have had that talent before and come up short. I hope this year is different but I will be skeptical until proven otherwise.

As for [url="http://www.statshark.com"]StatShark.com[/url], this stuff is pretty cool. You should check them out. You apparently missed the data that said Cincy has a 14% chance of winning 10 games. If you think the Bengals are going to win more than 10 games, you are seriously on the pipe. The idea is not to "play the season on paper" as one genius wrote but to show the statistical probability of events occurring. Then again he probably slept through statistics class in college anyway. I am a pro handicapper (please buy my picks on Vegas Insider starting at the end of August, I need the dough) and I use StatShark.com as a reference tool only, not the bible. I got lucky enough to be in their Beta program in exchange for writing snippets but I think the public version of their tools will be available in a week or two.

And no, these guys are not from Pittsburgh. If you had actually READ the forecast you would have seen that they didn't even pick Pittsburgh to win the division this year. Then again, reading may not be your strong suit.

Bow wow wow

PS
Feel fee to flame me on my message boards. I just launched them an hour ago and I need posts. ha ha. [url="http://www.sportsdog.net"]www.sportsdog.net[/url]
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[quote name='SportsDog' date='Aug 3 2005, 07:17 AM']As for [url="http://www.statshark.com"]StatShark.com[/url], this stuff is pretty cool.  You should check them out. ...  I am a pro handicapper (please buy my picks on Vegas Insider starting at the end of August, I need the dough) and I use StatShark.com as a reference tool only, not the bible...[right][post="123537"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]


Question, SportsDog: What did you and StatShark predict for the Chargers last year?
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It sucks that there was nothing this author could say in the world of neg. press other than we have some of the worst ownership in the leauge.

How does Mike Brown effect our ability to play? Is he out there with a jersey on trying to play QB?

Out of everthing that ppl can say about us this "Ownership" bullshit really pisses me off, We are NOT the bengals of the 90's, ML has given this team a respectalbe name once again. Just because of that comment the person who did these computer predictions can take them all and shove them up his ass.
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First, the Chargers. I was part of the beta testing of StatShark.com last season and it was going through a lot of refinement so suffice it to say that it became more accurate as the season progressed. However, it did predict the Jets beating them in the playoffs. The tools are not crystal balls but another form of information beyond the usual splits. For example, if you had Jamal Lewis on your fantasy team a few years back, his average was skewed all to hell thanks to one monster game and another big game but his average was not accurate as to his weekly performance. Anyways, StatShark.com is not paying me to hawk thier product so you are on your own. Wait...I guess they are sort of paying me huh? Damn. I'm a sell out! Anyhow, check it out or don't; no sweat to me. Go here: [url="http://wwww.statshark.com"]StatShark.com[/url]

As for "thewretchedmass," what a perfect screen name. You are seriously a damn whiner! Maybe you should try slim-fast and then you will just be "thewretched." As I said, Brown seems to have changed somewhat since the aquisition of Marvin Lewis but I remain cautiously optimistic till I see results in the win/loss column. I would love to see Cincy get some wins. They have the talent to actually win the division if they can put it together but they have burned me too many times in the past. And if you don't think ownership affects play on the field, you have no clue about the game of football at all. Period. So, I will happily shove StatShark projections up my ass as soon as you remove the tampon and your head from yours.

PS
[b]Question for you:[/b] how many web sites are totally devoted to having thier team owner removed?
[b]Answer:[/b] One. Check out MikeBrownSucks.com. Maybe you should flame them instead.
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Hey guess what.

Fuck you.
&
Fuck your stats.
&
Fuck your statshark computer.

I know about MikeBrownSucks.com but thanks for the fucking News flash buddy. I'm SURE the bengals are the ONLY team in the NFL with fans that hate their owner(s).

Lovely personal shots, I haven't heard those before...slim fast?

If your still unsure about the Marvin/Mike relationship I believe there is a thread on here about us still having 23-24 of Marvin's draft picks out of 27 drafted. Also look at us actually now spending money on talent. Chad, Carson, Rudi, TJ, and KEEPING that talent. In the 90's if we had had Rudi and his contract was up, He would have done EXACTLY what Corey Dillion did, but he stayed? Why is that?
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[quote name='wat' date='Aug 3 2005, 09:05 AM']Thats why computers dont play football.
[right][post="123616"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

Ohhh...nice comeback....

Players don't win championships...organizations do. New England is NOT the most talented team in the NFL but they play as a team and that starts with the guy signing the checks and works its way down to the ball boy. You need strong coaching, great scouting, good players and team chemistry.

Cincy has the talent. There is no doubt. But it has also been a very long time since they had a +500 season. That's reality. There is a reason for that. It's not just bad luck or do you think that Arizona has just been really unlucky since the 70's? I make my money by being analytical, not emotional in regards to football. Therefore, I have to take history and ownership into account.

It is true that Brown has made some solid changes and given Lewis a lot more free reign than he has any other past coach but until that translates to wins on the field, I have to remain cautious.

Bill Bidwell's Cardinals are bad every year. Is that because they don't have talented players? Or is it because he's cheap, has players hold out, draft picks not sign, trades or releases good players, etc.? Tampa Bay: worst team in football for decades, Hugh Culverhouse dies, new owners and they win the Super Bowl shortly there after. Niners: One of the best teams in the history of the game for almost 2 decades. They lose Carmen Policy, DeBartolo goes to jail and loses control of the team. Niners suck.

So, Brown may have turned over a new leaf. I say "may have" because until they win more than 8 games in a season, there is nothing to show that he has changed that much. I am not telling any of you something you don't already know.

I hope the Bengals have a really great season. I honestly do. Would I bet my hard earned money that they will win more than 8 games this year? No way.
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Guest bengalrick
[quote name='bengalrick' date='Aug 3 2005, 10:36 AM']how did you find our site, and this posting sportsdog??
[right][post="123596"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

bump [img]http://forum.go-bengals.com/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/3.gif[/img]
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Guest mongoloido
Sure would like to see statistical data concerning "Cincy still has among the worst ownership in the league." It's an opinion only cheap shot that has no business in any recap associated with something called "statshark."

Your "several times before" comment is your own, and quite hard to believe. No one would have written boysterous claims about the Bengals concerning Marvin's first year here. Only a rare few would have made bold statements last year with Carson getting his first NFL starts. So exactly when are these "several times?" During Coslet's time with the team? Shula's? Again, you're putting slanted judgements on an evaluation that is supposed to be rooted in statistical data. Hard to believe the pie charts when the human's associated with the processes are irrational.

Go pimp your site somewhere else, please. You crossed big analytical lines when you made personal exaggerations about the team. You screwed up.
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[quote name='SportsDog' date='Aug 3 2005, 12:32 PM'][b]Would I bet my hard earned money that they will win more than 8 games this year?  No way[/b].
[right][post="123636"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]


Then ur alot dumber then you sound man... If you look at the schedual u can pick out at least 9 wins with an option for a 10 and 11 if they play realy well. [img]http://forum.go-bengals.com/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/30.gif[/img] When i am counting my dough this winter u will be like why didnt I listen to those smart people on the bengals board.
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[quote name='SportsDog' date='Aug 3 2005, 09:32 AM'].......I make my money by being analytical, not emotional in regards to football.....  [right][post="123636"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

You make money doing this??? Man, I missed my calling.
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[quote name='CalSean' date='Aug 3 2005, 12:43 PM']Yah just look at what a wonderful job computers have done for the BCS.  What a joke.
[right][post="123643"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]


HAHAHAAHA thats why this dude is just another bitch.. my computer tells me cincinnati wont win more then 5 games... Well fuck ur computer it cant give us credit for the black jesus factor
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Guest mongoloido
[quote name='SportsDog' date='Aug 3 2005, 12:32 PM']It is true that Brown has made some solid changes and given Lewis a lot more free reign than he has any other past coach but until that translates to wins on the field, I have to remain cautious.[/quote]

Your site speaks nothing of caution, but of continued terrible ownership. It's innacurate. At worst, you can claim ownership is average.



[quote]So, Brown may have turned over a new leaf.  I say "may have" because until they win more than 8 games in a season, there is nothing to show that he has changed that much.  I am not telling any of you something you don't already know.[/quote]

We have a new stadium, a great coaching staff, and a team of young, hungry talents. Please take your "among the worst ownership in the league," and your backpedalled "may have" turned over a new leaf, and sell someone else on your impartiality. I'm a homer. I know it. I also know you're not being honest.
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Guest mongoloido
[quote name='bengalrick' date='Aug 3 2005, 11:36 AM']how did you find our site, and this posting sportsdog??
[right][post="123596"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]


He probably checked to see what IP was remote linking to the pretty red and grey charts.
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let me get this straight...

some guy writes a sports article...

people dont agree with it..

so the lamo who wrote it comes here, registers on a fan message board, to argue his article...

Here is a list of things lacking here:
-professionalism
-dignity
-common sense
-self confidence
-non-stupidity
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[quote name='GoBengals' date='Aug 3 2005, 09:50 AM']let me get this straight...

some guy writes a sports article...

people dont agree with it..

so the lamo who wrote it comes here, registers on a fan message board, to argue his article...

Here is a list of things lacking here:
-professionalism
-dignity
-common sense
-self confidence
-non-stupidity
[right][post="123650"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

No doubt. In reality, I think he is a scared Puttsburg Fan.
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Guest mongoloido
[quote name='CalSean' date='Aug 3 2005, 12:55 PM']No doubt.  In reality, I think he is a scared Puttsburg Fan.
[right][post="123656"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]


More likely, he is scared [b]of[/b] Pittsburgh fans. We have emotion tempered with logic and civility. Steelers fans haven't even started walking upright yet.
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If you would READ the original post it says Cincy has a 14% chance of winning 10 games. 10 games. That would be HIGHER than 8. It has Cincy ranked just a tad below the Jets who went pretty far in the playoffs last year, didn't they?

I only use StatShark data as part of my information when picking BETS. Bets involving a lot of people's money. Do you think I am going to recommend to my subscribers that they bet money because Cincy COULD win 9 games? No. No one would. Does that mean that Cincy WON'T win 9 or 10 games? Of course it doesn't. There is a huge difference between rooting for your team and placing money on the line.

Saying that the Bengals have a history of bad ownership is not a cheap shot so stop taking it personally. Again, I said several times that Cincy has the talent to WIN THE DIVISION but until they go over .500, its all dreaming. This year I think that they WILL go over .500 and that they have a decent shot at making the playoffs. If the Bengals were in the NFC, they would probably win whatever division they were in and rank just behind the Eagles. Then again, I also think that the Cardinals will go over .500 this year too. But would I BET on that? No.

So if you don't want me to post here, STOP REPLYING TO THE THREAD!!!

BENGLASCAT: schedual is spelled "schedule." You might want to use the "spellcheck" feature before you start calling people "dumb." Better to be thought a dumbass then to open your mouth and prove it.
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