Playoff Scenarios

[MrDingleDangle]

From http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

it looks like a Bengals win next week, we clinch a bye

Bengals loss, we most likely face the Stealers in the first round.

I know we havent clinched the division yet, but cant figure out why not yet, 2 losses + 2 Stealers wins the system still has us as winning the division, may be tiebraker goes to SOS and i cant figure out which team needs to lose for Stealers to beat us

[scharm]

Someone on the radio runs one of those predictions machines was saying if Pitt gets in the more scenarios favor them being the 5th seed.     Not sure how that works considering KC beat them and is in the wildcard pool now. 

[Hooky]

Someone on the radio runs one of those predictions machines was saying if Pitt gets in the more scenarios favor them being the 5th seed.     Not sure how that works considering KC beat them and is in the wildcard pool now. 

KC can still win their division. Denver would get the 6th seed or no playoffs at all. 

[Ron~Popeil]

Need an Amish numbers crunch here. I can't find a way the stealers win it either.

[Hooky]

Need an Amish numbers crunch here. I can't find a way the stealers win it either.

At the end of the game, the announcer said we clinched the division. Of course, they are wrong pretty often. Yesterday on the ESPN ticker, it said that we could clinch today with a win or stealer loss. I can't find a combination on the playoff machine where we don't win the division either.

[-GoBengals-]

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

[-GoBengals-]

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

 

common games would be afc west games, would they have the upper hand on those?

[bammorrisgotmehigh]

Call me Chicken Little but with our Defense I really don't want to play you all or Denver if we make it and get the 6 seed. To be honest if all goes to form next week and we win and Jets lose to Patriots and Chiefs beat Browns I may be rooting for you all to beat Denver next Monday night. I can't find a scenario either where we win the division and if there is I think it involves the Ravens beating you all last week on the road which is not going to happen. If all goes to form next week then if you all beat Denver all the Chiefs would have to do is beat Oakland the last week and they would get the 3 seed as they would overtake Denver for the division. Then all we would have to do is beat the Browns the last week and we would get the 4 seed and probably Houston which on paper would be much better than having another War with you all.

[MrDingleDangle]

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

 

common games would be afc west games, would they have the upper hand on those?

 

common games we are up 2-1 i believe (chiefs/seahawks vs. cardinals), would be tied if we lose to the broncos

conference games we are 8-2, would end up 8-4...same as pittsburgh

 

so comes down to strength of victory or schedule

 

or maybe it comes down to 7? that would mean it depends on points?! never heard of that tiebreaker, but that would be why we cant find it on the playoff machine

[Ron~Popeil]

Call me Chicken Little but with our Defense I really don't want to play you all or Denver if we make it and get the 6 seed. To be honest if all goes to form next week and we win and Jets lose to Patriots and Chiefs beat Browns I may be rooting for you all to beat Denver next Monday night. I can't find a scenario either where we win the division and if there is I think it involves the Ravens beating you all last week on the road which is not going to happen. If all goes to form next week then if you all beat Denver all the Chiefs would have to do is beat Oakland the last week and they would get the 3 seed as they would overtake Denver for the division. Then all we would have to do is beat the Browns the last week and we would get the 4 seed and probably Houston which on paper would be much better than having another War with you all.

I live just North of Johnstown in Cambria county. That seems to be a common sentiment around here. One of my sales guys pointed out that we played better than just about any other team against your passing attack and that our receivers match up really well with your secondary. I would actually welcome a rematch. This rivalry is getting really intense and I would love to see a matchup with a QB not taking his first meaningful snaps. Of course my dream scenario involves you guys losing to Cleveland with Johnny Shithead doing his money sign as your team leaves the field and goes into the offseason with more questions than answers. :)

[bammorrisgotmehigh]

I live just North of Johnstown in Cambria county. That seems to be a common sentiment around here. One of my sales guys pointed out that we played better than just about any other team against your passing attack and that our receivers match up really well with your secondary. I would actually welcome a rematch. This rivalry is getting really intense and I would love to see a matchup with a QB not taking his first meaningful snaps. Of course my dream scenario involves you guys losing to Cleveland with Johnny Shithead doing his money sign as your team leaves the field and goes into the offseason with more questions than answers. :)

If we beat Ravens next week and Patriots beat Jets we are in no matter what.

[Ron~Popeil]

If we beat Ravens next week and Patriots beat Jets we are in no matter what.

One can always hope. Not likely to happen of course but given the choice of beating the Broncos or that scenario playing I would hesitate for a second or two. 

[DanvilleBengal]

The only thing that we have clinched is that we are gonna have at least one more game after Baltimore.  That's it.  Everything else is based on how we play these last two weeks,  because lets be honest:  The Squeels are gonna run the table at this point--Baltimore's a dumpster fire that is on their third QB, and then there's Cleveland--enough said.    They'll gonna get in unless some remarkable bullshit happens...

Simply put, we need to work our asses off playing Denver on next Monday night because we win that game, then the Baltimore game doesn't even matter,  plus we would have a first round bye meaning time for our boys to heal up and have an idea of who we face, and even better,  probably no shot at a potential 3rd bout against them unless it's for the AFC title.  That Houston loss is magnifying by the day because we would have already be in the dance and pretty much would locked up a first-round bye because of it....

[ctfan73]

The Stealers  currently have a better strength of victory. If the Bengals and Stealers finish tied it would come down to that.    Head to head, division record, common opponents and conference record would all be tied.

[oldschooler]

CINCINNATI BENGALS (at Denver, Monday)

Cincinnati clinches AFC North division:

1) CIN win or tie

2) PIT loss or tie

Cincinnati clinches a first-round bye:

1) CIN win or tie

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000606242/article/2015-afc-playoff-scenarios-for-week-16?campaign=Twitter_atn

[Ron~Popeil]

CINCINNATI BENGALS (at Denver, Monday)

Cincinnati clinches AFC North division:

1) CIN win or tie

2) PIT loss or tie

Cincinnati clinches a first-round bye:

1) CIN win or tie

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000606242/article/2015-afc-playoff-scenarios-for-week-16?campaign=Twitter_atn

I don't recall having a chance to clinch a bye in a long time. Maybe since 1988?

[oldschooler]

Strength of victory could make Bengals wild card unless they win AFC North outright over Stealers

Lots of questions remain after playoff clincher

CINCINNATI  - Something called "strength of victory" could decide the AFC North title, and if so, the Stealers stand to win out over the Bengals.

While the Bengals have made the NFL playoffs for the fifth straight year, there are still plenty of unanswered questions: Will they be division champs? The No. 1 seed? No. 2 seed? Wild card?

All of those are still in play.

And here's one you might not have heard: What is strength of victory?

The Bengals (11-3) can hit the daily double by winning their next game in Denver (10-4) on Monday Night Football on Dec. 28. They would clinch the AFC North title and the No. 2 seed  - which carries a first-round bye in the playoffs and a home game in the second round.

Bottom line: The Bengals will win the AFC North if they win one of their last two games OR the Stealers (9-5) lose or tie.

Most likely outcome: The Stealers have an easier road despite going on the road to play Baltimore (4-10) and Cleveland (3-11). But after Denver, the Bengals host Baltimore in the regular-season finale on Jan. 3 and they should win that game no matter who is quarterbacking.

Worst-case scenario: The Bengals don't win the AFC North and have to settle for a wild card. If the Bengals and Stealers tie at 11-5, it looks like the Stealers would win the division on strength of victory, the fifth tiebreaker   between two teams in the same division. That's because the first four tiebreakers - head-to-head, record in common games, record in the division, record in the conference - would come out even.

Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage of the teams you have beaten. It's supposed to reflect greater success against better competition. With two weeks to go,  the Stealers' SOV is .492 based on their defeated opponents' combined record of 62-64. The Bengals' SOV is .409 based on a combined record of 63-91. The difference in the number of games is the result of the Bengals having won 11 games and the Stealers nine.

With two games to go, it seems impossible for the Bengals to overcome that gap.

SEE each team's strength of victory (second column from the right)

Best-seeding scenario: The Bengals have a chance to get the No. 1 seed if they beat Denver and win out, but they would need a lot of help. If New England loses out at the Jets and at Miami, the Bengals could finish 13-3, the Patriots 12-4 and the Broncos no better than 11-5. It's not hard to see the Patriots losing at the Jets (9-5) next week, with New York fighting for a wild card. But losing at Miami? Not so much. If the Patriots lose once and tie the Bengals at 13-3, the Patriots would win the tiebreaker based on best record vs. common opponents (NE is 4-1 against Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Houston and Denver and the Bengals would be 3-2).  

Next best seeding scenario: As long as the Bengals beat the Broncos, they're guaranteed the No. 2 seed based on the head-to-head tiebreaker.  If they lose in Denver, they would fall to No. 3 unless they beat the Ravens on the last weekend and the Broncos lose or tie at home to San Diego.  But they can't fall lower than No. 3 as long as they finish 12-4.

Wild card chaos: If they Bengals lose out and finish 11-5, all sorts of things can happen:

> They could lose the AFC North to the Stealers and drop to a wild card and lose the home playoff game;

> They could finish in a two-way tie or three-way tie with the Jets and Chiefs (or Broncos).

In a two-way tie, the Bengals would beat out the Chiefs (head-to-head) and the Jets based on best record against common opponents (Baltimore, Buffalo, Cleveland, Houston and Buffalo). The Bengals would be 5-2 and the Jets 2-3. The Broncos would beat the Bengals (head-to-head).

In a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Jets, the Chiefs would win based on best conference record (KC 10-2 Bengals 8-4, Jets 8-4) and the Bengals would beat out the Jets based on best record against common opponents.

In a three-way tie with the Broncos and Jets, the Bengals and Jets are in based on best conference record and the Broncos are out. (Bengals and Jets 8-4, Broncos 7-5).

 

http://www.wcpo.com/sports/football/bengals/strength-of-victory-could-make-bengals-wild-card-unless-they-win-afc-north-outright-over-Stealers

[SouthPaw]

Its really not that hard.  If the Bengals lose out and the Stealers win out, the Stealers get crowned the North getting the 3rd seed while the Bengals get the 5th.  If the Bengals beat the Broncos they secure the North and and a first round bye with the no. 2 seed.  They locked up a playoff berth, thats it.  There is simply nothing else that can happen until Monday night.  That is the money game. The will either have the 2, 3, or 5 seed.  

[Hooky]

There was confusion because a couple of us were running the scenario yesterday on the playoff machine and there were no combinations where we didn't win the division. The playoff machine was actually wrong. But it is fixed this morning so if you run the basic bengals lose out, stealers win out, it will show the stealers as champs. That wasn't the case last night.

[Le Tigre]

I don't recall having a chance to clinch a bye in a long time. Maybe since 1988?

And as I recall that wasn't until the last game, on the last missed FG attempt by Washington.

Also, in those days, they had a true "wild card weekend". Only real wild card teams played.

[saphead]

I am going to paint my cock & balls green I am going to be such a big Jets fan for the next 2 weeks. Cock, balls, grundle......everything green. 

 

 

[alleycat]

What's really interesting, that people don't really seem to be talking about, is that if we beat the Broncos we could essentially have back to back bye weeks.  We could play all backups against Baltimore, if we wanted, and give some guys two weeks rest.  Maybe not the best idea given how we seem to come out of bye weeks, but a couple of weeks of rest for a few guys might be really helpful.

 

[saphead]

What's really interesting, that people don't really seem to be talking about, is that if we beat the Broncos we could essentially have back to back bye weeks.  We could play all backups against Baltimore, if we wanted, and give some guys two weeks rest.  Maybe not the best idea given how we seem to come out of bye weeks, but a couple of weeks of rest for a few guys might be really helpful.

 

Good point. We need to put all of our eggs in this basket for the Broncos. Pull out all the stops, trick plays, whatever it takes to get this win. 

[AmishBengalFan]

 

common games we are up 2-1 i believe (chiefs/seahawks vs. cardinals), would be tied if we lose to the broncos

conference games we are 8-2, would end up 8-4...same as pittsburgh

 

so comes down to strength of victory or schedule

 

or maybe it comes down to 7? that would mean it depends on points?! never heard of that tiebreaker, but that would be why we cant find it on the playoff machine

All of the games on our schedule outside of the division are common EXCEPT for the games played against teams from the AFC East and AFC South. 

The Bengals played Houston (loss) and Buffalo (win).  We are 1-1 in our UNIQUE games
The Stealers played Indianapolis (win) and New England (loss).  They are 1-1 in their UNIQUE games.

If we finish tied at the end of the regular season, then, since we have identical records against out UNIQUE opponents, we will have to have identical records against our COMMON opponents as well.  So the Common Opponents tiebreak is guaranteed to NOT break this tie.  It will be SoV first, with SoS after that.  I believe PIT would have a superior SoV.

[Khatmandude]

I don't trust Hue Jackson to put together a good enough game plan nor do I trust him to call the right type of plays to get this offense moving under McCarron.  Against SF, the pass plays called were more Air Corryell than West Coast offense....not what you do to a QB making his first start, on the road, against a defense that plays well at home.  McCarron could flourish in a quick hitting, WC type offensive system, but there was nothing reminiscent of such an offense yesterday at SF except maybe a few plays.   Not going to work against Denver's pass rush.  

Quick slants, comebacks, outs, draws, screens and even a few go routes.....this will need to be the recipe vs Broncos' pass rush otherwise it could be a long night for an inexperienced, timid at the moment QB who will be facing one of, if not the most aggressive, pass rushes in the NFL.  

Unless production from the QB position is significantly better, Denver game looks like a tough one to win.  Unfortunately, it's a huge game and has far reaching implications for playoff scenarios.  Good news is Dalton should be back for the 1st wk of playoffs even if no bye, just hope he's not too rusty from the long break.