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Jason

If the First 23 Picks fall like this Part 2

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I see people make the Smith-Ogbuehi comparison a lot, but it's a completely different situation. With Ogbuehi, it was just a standard ACL tear that 99% of guys come back from just fine and it checked out fine at the combine. Everyone knew he was going to come back 100% within 5-6 months after the draft.

Smith has nerve damage which is a completely different deal. He might never come back. And if he does, he's probably never going to be the same player he was prior to the injury. The risk/reward just doesn't make sense in round 1. Same with Marcus Lattimore. Maybe you roll the dice in the mid-rounds and hope he's 80% of what he was within a year or two. But first round? I can't see it. 

Do you think there's any truth to the reports (his) of Smith doing 600 lb leg presses and 400 lb squats, and if so, how much impact does that have on his recovery from nerve damage and regeneration?

 

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Do you think there's any truth to the reports (his) of Smith doing 600 lb leg presses and 400 lb squats, and if so, how much impact does that have on his recovery from nerve damage and regeneration?

 

I saw an interview w/ Mayock on NFLN and he stated he was working out with those weights, I doubt he would lie about something like that to Mayock(who loves Jaylon's character off the field as much as his play on the field) on national TV. In a few days he will have his medical recheck and depending on how everything shakes out he could be a top 10 pick. 

Look at Todd Gurley, he blew out his knee and was still a top 10 pick last year and performed at a very high level when he returned to action. I honestly don't think Smith makes it to 24, somebody is going to take a flyer on him and try to hope he's ready to go by September or even wait later because he offer long term value. 

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Definitely depends upon the medical re-check that is upcoming and the feedback from that. But I'm still not buying comparisons to Gurley or Ogbuehi who had normal, garden-variety ACL tears that aren't that big of a deal anymore. The nerve damage is a whole different ballgame. It was what cost Marcus Lattimore his career (and Lattimore was lifting weights and stuff like that just fine as well). 

Here's an article from just after the combine medical check:

 

The optimistic view of Smith’s situation was that his medicals would give teams hope he could make it back similar to the way Cincinnati Bengals OT Cedric Ogbuehi did in 2015. Ogbuehi tore his ACL in Texas A&M’s bowl game but the Bengals still drafted him in the first round last year with the knowledge he would return at some point in 2015.

[The players the Redskins should ideally target in each round

Unfortunately, the worst case scenario materialized when news of ankle, knee and nerve damage resonated throughout the combine’s media room.

“I’m truly concerned about Smith’s injury. It happened much later in the season and then we’re talking about multiple injuries all in one,” Zierlein noted.

Smith attempted to quell the damage in his podium session with the media, but it only left more questions than answers.

What’s the impact? How much could it cost Smith in the short term? Let’s say Smith drops just 10 spots from No. 10 to 20. In that best-case scenario, he still stands to lose millions.

The difference in last year’s No. 10 pick — Rams RB Todd Gurley — and the No. 20 pick — Eagles WR Nelson Agholor — is stark. Gurley signed a four year contract worth $13.8M. Agholor also signed a four year deal. For $9.4M.

That’s best case scenario.

[Top 50 prospects for 2016: Ole Miss, Ohio State dominate

The prevailing thought now though is that Smith may not even be able to return in 2016 and his draft selection will reflect the overall concern from NFL teams. In other words, there’s a slim chance of hearing Smith’s name on Thursday or Friday night. I don’t have the heart to figure out what the contractual difference is between the 10th pick and a pick on Day 3 in Rounds 4-7.

 

Smith’s story is reminiscent, in some respects, to that of Cleveland Browns CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu.

Leading up to the 2015 Rose Bowl, Ekpre-Olomu was thought to be no worse than a third-round pick. He stayed at Oregon for his senior season and although he didn’t have as good a season in 2014 as he did in 2013, he was still a first-team All-Pac 12 selection. He made it through the season unscathed, until one practice leading up to the Rose Bowl, he tore his ACL. The reality, though, was that his knee was shredded much more severely. A last year’s combine, a multiple people around the league told me I should reassess whether to give him a top-50 grade. They advised me he might be waiting a while to hear his name called on draft day.

They were right. It took until the 241st pick for the former Oregon CB to hear his name called.

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Because Smith’s injury was so public and occurred during a high-profile bowl game, his multiple injuries haven’t flown under the radar as Ekpre-Olomu’s did. The impact may be even more severe.

Ekpre-Olomu collected on a draft value insurance claim of nearly $3 million. Smith has obtained a similar one. Sadly, he may be forced to collect on his insurance claim as well.

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Did not realize the injury was that serious.That being the case,i would go with M.Thomas,D.Lee,then Floyd.

Here's another snippet of an article about Smith from this week. We should have a better idea after the re-check next week, but it doesn't sound great:

 

 

And that means Smith is probably headed toward a fall and a third-day landing spot, where it’s much more palatable to take the occasional chance, especially on a player who could be a difference-making talent.

The big moment for Smith is the medical rechecks for NFL combine participants scheduled for April 14 and 15. Back in February at the combine, it was clear that Smith was still struggling mightily from the torn ACL as well as the damaged LCL he suffered against the Buckeyes.

That wasn’t the big issue, though, because he should have been less than two months post-surgery. The far more significant aspect of the injury from a potential employer’s perspective was the nerve damage Smith suffered in the knee as well as an ankle, something that could threaten his entire football career.

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Darron Lee, Michael Thomas or Leonard Floyd

I totally agree on Michael Thomas or Leonard Floyd,but any of the top top dominate d-lineman I would like in the first.Take the best lineman on D that is available,period,that is a big need and this years draft has a ton of top lineman.Gotta get a run-stopping pass rusher and sack ace.Then fill the rest of your needs second round on.We could use a top lb,wr,center,safety and perhaps another O-lineman that can play anywhere on the line,like Cody Whitehair who I love in this draft from Kansas State.The dude is a picking horse and can play anywhere,but he is best at OG.

 

Love Michael Thomas,dude is a good person,and loves the game and he is a beast.I would for sure draft him in the second.Other receivers I like that should be available in the second is Kolby Listenbee from TCU.He is tough as nails,very tall and has big hands.Loves the game.Fights for the rock every time.

Keyarris Garrett from Tulsa,Charone Peake from Clemson is 6ft 2in,215 lbs,ran a 4.3 40 at his pro-day.

Demarcus Robinsoin from Florida,is a big-time player.I believe all the receivers you see on Path to the Draft will be gone when we pick at 55,so that is why I have listed some of these guys.Believe me all these receivers are good,and maybe we will get lucky and one of the so-called studs will fall to us at 55. 

 

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I see people make the Smith-Ogbuehi comparison a lot, but it's a completely different situation. With Ogbuehi, it was just a standard ACL tear that 99% of guys come back from just fine and it checked out fine at the combine. Everyone knew he was going to come back 100% within 5-6 months after the draft.

Smith has nerve damage which is a completely different deal. He might never come back. And if he does, he's probably never going to be the same player he was prior to the injury. The risk/reward just doesn't make sense in round 1. Same with Marcus Lattimore. Maybe you roll the dice in the mid-rounds and hope he's 80% of what he was within a year or two. But first round? I can't see it. 

What I don't understand, is that Mike Mayock still has Jaylon as his number one linebacker. Does he know something others don't? He has moved other players around in his rankings recently.

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What I don't understand, is that Mike Mayock still has Jaylon as his number one linebacker. Does he know something others don't? He has moved other players around in his rankings recently.

It might be based on not having any special knowledge but simply assuming Smith eventually returns to full health. That's certainly possible and if so he could become the top LB from this class.

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It might be based on not having any special knowledge but simply assuming Smith eventually returns to full health. That's certainly possible and if so he could become the top LB from this class.

That could be. I'd be curious to hear his explanation though.

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What I don't understand, is that Mike Mayock still has Jaylon as his number one linebacker. Does he know something others don't? He has moved other players around in his rankings recently.

Mayock loves Smith off the field and believes he will pass the medical rechecks, that's why he's the #1 LB. Smith could either be like Todd Gurley who came back in middle of the season to be a very good player or like Marcus Lattimore..only time will tell. 

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I don't think we have a chance for Smith anyways.   If knee checks out he will go top 10. If he fails re check get will drop to second round for sure.  Even lower.   Guy is a top notch prospect though. 

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I don't think we have a chance for Smith anyways.   If knee checks out he will go top 10. If he fails re check get will drop to second round for sure.  Even lower.   Guy is a top notch prospect though. 

I don't think it'll be a pass/fail type of thing though. Because they just don't know how it is going to respond and recover going forward. The recheck will provide team doctors with more information and it could be positive or negative but it almost definitely isn't going to be a definite answer of "he will definitely be back to 100% by this date" or "he has zero chance of making a full recovery".

I think it ends up being reflected in terms percentages. Is there a 20% chance it is career-ending or a 50% chance? Does he have a 30% chance of getting all the way back to 100% within 2 years or a 10% chance? 

There's a lot of gray area with these types of injuries and the most likely outcome is probably somewhere in the middle (i.e. he is able to play again, but he's only 80% of what he was athletically). 

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I don't think it'll be a pass/fail type of thing though. Because they just don't know how it is going to respond and recover going forward. The recheck will provide team doctors with more information and it could be positive or negative but it almost definitely isn't going to be a definite answer of "he will definitely be back to 100% by this date" or "he has zero chance of making a full recovery".

I think it ends up being reflected in terms percentages. Is there a 20% chance it is career-ending or a 50% chance? Does he have a 30% chance of getting all the way back to 100% within 2 years or a 10% chance? 

There's a lot of gray area with these types of injuries and the most likely outcome is probably somewhere in the middle (i.e. he is able to play again, but he's only 80% of what he was athletically). 

Very well said. 

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Every scout says the same thing about him.  Amazing instincts and player on the field and off the field a stand out person.   Mayoch loves Smith.  Between the kids character,  potential and advanced medical I think he's a lock for first round if knee is progressing like it should. 

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While I agree with your take, I wonder if the Bengals might be in the market for something different at DE.

We have both Dunlap and Michael Johnson under contract for until 2019. The Bengals love both, especially on early downs and both are very good against the run. Seems like it would make sense if they are looking for a #3 DE who can rotate in to try to add a guy who is more of a pure pass rusher. Somebody with speed who can bend the edge. Not sure if they are thinking this way or not, but if so I could see them going away from the 6'6 280 pound body type and getting a 250 pound speed rusher to compliment their top 2. 

I so want Jarron Reed,DT from Alabama or Vernon Butler-DT from Louisiana Tech-6ft 4in 323 lbs.Hassan Ridgeway-Texas or A'Shane Robinson.Any of these massive D-lineman to rotate with our current men.We NEED to address our D-LINE first,then go after our safety,wide receiver,corner back,Defensive End,Center and so on.With all these top linemen in this draft,you gotta pull the trigger early or else you just get the left overs.IT ALL STARTS WITH YOUR LINES,FOLKS. Shore that up as it is for sure a need.Peko is on the other side or greatness and the dudes we currently have are not top shelve other than Dunlap and Atkins.

 

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In regards to Jaylon, I think it depends on if the nerves are firing again.  It shouldn't be hard to come back from the ACL, but if those nerves don't start firing again, especially in his lower body, he probably falls off your board.  If they're firing again, he should be in play at 24 if he falls and it should probably be him honestly.  Question is, do you plug him in at middle linebacker next year or do you move the best weakside backer in the league to more of a guy who is occupying blocks to let the weakside backer flow to the football?  Jaylon is a talent, but I think he's more of a weakside backer at his size.  

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In regards to Jaylon, I think it depends on if the nerves are firing again.  It shouldn't be hard to come back from the ACL, but if those nerves don't start firing again, especially in his lower body, he probably falls off your board.  If they're firing again, he should be in play at 24 if he falls and it should probably be him honestly.  Question is, do you plug him in at middle linebacker next year or do you move the best weakside backer in the league to more of a guy who is occupying blocks to let the weakside backer flow to the football?  Jaylon is a talent, but I think he's more of a weakside backer at his sze.  

Such a move just might create a firewall of sorts between Burfict and future suspensions just due to the different requirements of the position.

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In this order...

1.  Robert Nkemdiche

2.  Robert Nkemdiche

3.  Robert Nkemdiche

Minus the hotel/synthetic marijuana thing, this guy is a Top 5 pick, and quite possibly #1 overall.  If you get a chance to select a talent like this at 24, you do it - warts and all.

Being smart and stockpiling talent has gotten the Bengals to where they are.  If they do it again this year, it'll be hard to get upset about it.  However, they haven't had a chance to draft a player as talented as Robert Nkemdiche since they took A.J. Green at #4.

I'd pull the trigger without hesitation.

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In this order...

1.  Robert Nkemdiche

2.  Robert Nkemdiche

3.  Robert Nkemdiche

Minus the hotel/synthetic marijuana thing, this guy is a Top 5 pick, and quite possibly #1 overall.  If you get a chance to select a talent like this at 24, you do it - warts and all.

Being smart and stockpiling talent has gotten the Bengals to where they are.  If they do it again this year, it'll be hard to get upset about it.  However, they haven't had a chance to draft a player as talented as Robert Nkemdiche since they took A.J. Green at #4.

I'd pull the trigger without hesitation.

I hear ya but..investing a #1 pick in this guy seems very risky, the whole hotel/synthetic marijuana thing is a big fucking deal in which he easily could've have died. And instead of taking responsibility for his actions he throws his teammate under the bus probably because he's jealous that Tunseil is now the projected #1 pick. 

He immature and an unnecessary risk taker, someone I would have serious pause about taking in the first round. However, I remember when he was coming out of high school he was the #1 overall player in the country and he's played well and developed into a great player, so I can see him not even making it to #24 in the real draft. 

A guy I really like is Emmanuel Ogbah, he's young, talented, mature, and has a fantastic work ethic. Someone an organization would feel comfortable investing in and there is a good probability they will get a good return. 

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I so want Jarron Reed,DT from Alabama or Vernon Butler-DT from Louisiana Tech-6ft 4in 323 lbs.Hassan Ridgeway-Texas or A'Shane Robinson.Any of these massive D-lineman to rotate with our current men.We NEED to address our D-LINE first,then go after our safety,wide receiver,corner back,Defensive End,Center and so on.With all these top linemen in this draft,you gotta pull the trigger early or else you just get the left overs.IT ALL STARTS WITH YOUR LINES,FOLKS. Shore that up as it is for sure a need.Peko is on the other side or greatness and the dudes we currently have are not top shelve other than Dunlap and Atkins.

 

I agree with the idea of prioritizing the D-line, but this draft is LOADED with depth at that position.  Depending on how the Bengals board looks, they might choose to wait on stocking that position.   If there is a clear standout player still available at #24, they'll probably take him, but if there are six-to-eight guys who are all rated about the same, they might choose to roll the dice and hope one is still around at #55.

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In this order...

1.  Robert Nkemdiche

2.  Robert Nkemdiche

3.  Robert Nkemdiche

Minus the hotel/synthetic marijuana thing, this guy is a Top 5 pick, and quite possibly #1 overall.  If you get a chance to select a talent like this at 24, you do it - warts and all.

Being smart and stockpiling talent has gotten the Bengals to where they are.  If they do it again this year, it'll be hard to get upset about it.  However, they haven't had a chance to draft a player as talented as Robert Nkemdiche since they took A.J. Green at #4.

I'd pull the trigger without hesitation.

 

This is what I've been thinking more and more.  I'd even follow it up with Hassan Ridgeway in the 2nd or 3rd round too.

I don't see it as him having thrown Tunsil under the bus out of jealousy, more along the lines of him calling out the hypocrisy of the situation with people hanging from Tunsil's nuts simply because it wasn't public knowledge that he was there.  It's still an immature thing to do instead of simply owning it and moving on.

Edited by BBR

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In this order...

1.  Robert Nkemdiche

2.  Robert Nkemdiche

3.  Robert Nkemdiche

Minus the hotel/synthetic marijuana thing, this guy is a Top 5 pick, and quite possibly #1 overall.  If you get a chance to select a talent like this at 24, you do it - warts and all.

Being smart and stockpiling talent has gotten the Bengals to where they are.  If they do it again this year, it'll be hard to get upset about it.  However, they haven't had a chance to draft a player as talented as Robert Nkemdiche since they took A.J. Green at #4.

I'd pull the trigger without hesitation.

Alice...it isn't often that I disagree with you, but this would certainly be one. NO THANKS on this under performing, lack of effort, habitual drug using, nightmare of a player. Everything about him screams to a high potential to revert back to his past once he receives that big pay day. Too much risk....not near enough actual play time reward.

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Sounds like Jaylon is going to be out all of 2016, but doctors believe he will be back "to form" in 2017.  On one hand, I think this team needs players to help it win now, on the other hand a day 2 selection to fill in for Dansby next year could be a game-changer.  

I think he is firmly out of the first round though.  Hobs seems to think it is a stretch anyways. 

Edited by JC

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