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In Mel Kiper Jr.'s latest mock draft, Bengals select WR amid run at position


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In Mel Kiper Jr.'s latest mock draft, Bengals select WR amid run at position

Notre Dame's Will Fuller posted the fastest 40-yard dash time (4.32 seconds) of all receivers who ran the 40 at the NFL combine in February. Jon Durr/Getty Images
3:12 PM ET
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    Coley HarveyESPN Staff Writer

CINCINNATI -- ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. wants Cincinnati Bengals fans to get to know draft hopeful Will Fuller.

That's because in Kiper's latest mock draftInsider, he has the former Notre Dame standout coming to the Bengals amid a late-first-round run on receivers. It's the second time Kiper has mocked Fuller to Cincinnati after sending him there in his first mock back in January.

Noted for his speed, the former Fighting Irish receiver posted the fastest 40-yard dash time of all wideouts who ran the 40 at the NFL combine in February. Fuller's blazing 4.32 seconds lived up to the hype about how fast he was. Speed has been his greatest asset, and all throughout college he was lauded for his consistent ability to get behind opposing defenses.

Aside from wanting receivers who can catch everything, the Bengals' big push is also to get as fast as possible at the position.

For that reason, Fuller to the Bengals makes sense. He's a true vertical threat who could eventually shine deep downfield opposite A.J. Green. Size could be a concern, though, as Fuller is listed at about 6-foot, 185 pounds. As the Bengals start retooling the receiver position, they might want to have larger players. When Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu left in free agency last month, the Bengals lost a pair of receivers who were taller than 6-foot-2 and weighed 200 pounds or more. Remember last year's lone receiver draft pick by the Bengals, the 5-foot-9, 180-pound Mario Alford, was smaller in stature, too.

Still, there's a lot to like about Fuller's game. He caught 62 passes last fall with 14 resulting in touchdowns.

If the actual draft shakes out the way Kiper's mock does, it will be interesting to see if the Bengals decide to still go with a receiver in the first round. Though that position arguably remains their largest draft need, last week's signing ofBrandon LaFell and visits this week from other veteran wideouts make it seem as if Cincinnati isn't as desperate to address the receiver position so early in the draft. The way the Bengals' overall roster is set up, they have every reason to stick to their "best-player-available" mantra. There's no reason for them to reach at any position with pick No. 24.

So how did Kiper's mock shake out? Well, after Mississippi's Laquon Treadwellbecame the first receiver off the board to Detroit at No. 16, Corey Coleman andJosh Doctson -- two other receivers the Bengals are considering -- were scooped up by Houston and Minnesota at No. 22 and 23, respectively. Fuller, then, became the third straight receiver to be picked.

Just given the way the receivers came off the board so quickly in that part of Kiper's mock draft, one could interpret the Bengals' pick as a reach. If they don't have Fuller this high on their draft board, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Bengals decide against picking him at No. 24 (if the rest of the draft follows Kiper's mock, that is), and instead select, say, a defensive lineman or a linebacker.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/cincinnati-bengals/post/_/id/22181/in-mel-kiper-jr-s-latest-mock-draft-bengals-select-wr-amid-run-at-position

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A fast guy that doesn't run a lot of routes, with drop the ball, and is not very physical doesn't seem to fit into our division. When you are playing outside late in the year and wind is blowing, snow is falling, and the field is mess all of that speed won't really mean that much. There are plenty of fast guys that don't know how to read a defense, run precise routes, consistently catch the ball, and make people miss after the catch..I would rather have someone who can excel at the other aspects of playing WR besides just running a fast 40. 

I would rather have a bigger guy like Thomas who can go across the middle, run after the catch, and run more routes or a less athletic but still explosive guy like Shepard that can do it all. 

To me Shepard is getting undervalued throughout this process, his production is insane, he can run any route, and he's able to help out on special teams as a return guy. He's not the biggest guy but Antonio Brown, Wes Welker, Steve Smith, and Tyler Lockett are all guys who are short but make/made big plays in the NFL in recent years. 

 

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Like the article states, it would amount to us reaching if we did that. There's no way all 4 of those guys belong in the top 24 picks, especially Fuller, with his drop issues. Need overtaking value.

Depends on who you ask.  CBSSports has him 28 overall.  Not a big reach.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2016/WR

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I saw Daniel Jeremiah tweeted yesterday that he wouldn't be surprised if Fuller is the #1 receiver off the board based upon what he is hearing. Makes sense in some ways. Speed receivers are always in high demand and receiving TDs in college are one of the best predictors of NFL success. Fuller scored 29 TDs over the past two seasons (26 games) against great competition. Really, really impressive number. 

While he's not my first choice, I wouldn't mind the pick. His speed would force teams to keep a Safety deep on his side of the field, which would really open things up for AJ, Eifert, LaFell and the running game. The home run threat receivers make life easier for everyone else on offense because they draw so much defensive attention.

 

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Really, even in a weak class, I like most of the guys at the top of the WR position. IMHO, the Bengals like to go big on the outside, with some small shifty guys in the slot. If Mario Alford isn't "getting it", then maybe Fuller makes sense. 

I'm curious if Doctson gets a better look due to the TCU connection with Andy.  6'2", 200 lbs. He fits the mold of what we drafted under Gruden. If we're looking to replace Sanu/Jones straight up, this is the guy. In the late rounds, his running mate Listenbee is intriguing.

I still expect the Bengals to go BPA, which probably means a DT in the first. (Jarran Reed - FTW) Leonte Caroo is an intriguing guy in the late second, and Pharoh Cooper is an interesting gadget player.

 

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I have a feeling the Bengals are going to go with a front-7 defender with the first pick.  Address WR in round 2.  

Could definitely see that. Think it'll be either DL-WR or WR-DL to start the draft. 

Maybe LB if D. Lee falls, though I think the Rey/Dansby signings make LB a bit less likely. 

Some pretty interesting guys projected to go mid-rounds too and everything seems to point towards them drafting two receivers. Really excited to see who they decide to take from that group of guys as well. 

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Could definitely see that. Think it'll be either DL-WR or WR-DL to start the draft. 

Maybe LB if D. Lee falls, though I think the Rey/Dansby signings make LB a bit less likely. 

Some pretty interesting guys projected to go mid-rounds too and everything seems to point towards them drafting two receivers. Really excited to see who they decide to take from that group of guys as well. 

Agree with all of this.

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I saw Daniel Jeremiah tweeted yesterday that he wouldn't be surprised if Fuller is the #1 receiver off the board based upon what he is hearing. Makes sense in some ways. Speed receivers are always in high demand and receiving TDs in college are one of the best predictors of NFL success. Fuller scored 29 TDs over the past two seasons (26 games) against great competition. Really, really impressive number. 

While he's not my first choice, I wouldn't mind the pick. His speed would force teams to keep a Safety deep on his side of the field, which would really open things up for AJ, Eifert, LaFell and the running game. The home run threat receivers make life easier for everyone else on offense because they draw so much defensive attention.

 

I say no way to fuller in the first,he is not big enough,has small hands and will get killed in division and he catches most of his balls with his body.I do not want him especially at 24.Go get a dominate D-lineman and draft a wr later.I LOVE Michael Thomas from Ohio state in the second.He is very tall and has HUGE HANDS and can catch it anywhere,anytime,even with one hand.His hands are like 10 and a half.Thats big man and I watched him catch the rock with ease and he goes up and gets it too.I WANT HIM IN THE SECOND.

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I say no way to fuller in the first,he is not big enough,has small hands and will get killed in division and he catches most of his balls with his body.I do not want him especially at 24.Go get a dominate D-lineman and draft a wr later.I LOVE Michael Thomas from Ohio state in the second.He is very tall and has HUGE HANDS and can catch it anywhere,anytime,even with one hand.His hands are like 10 and a half.Thats big man and I watched him catch the rock with ease and he goes up and gets it too.I WANT HIM IN THE SECOND.

I doubt Thomas is going to be there when we pick in the second. That's right, I'm doubting Thomas.

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I say no way to fuller in the first,he is not big enough,has small hands and will get killed in division and he catches most of his balls with his body.I do not want him especially at 24.Go get a dominate D-lineman and draft a wr later.I LOVE Michael Thomas from Ohio state in the second.He is very tall and has HUGE HANDS and can catch it anywhere,anytime,even with one hand.His hands are like 10 and a half.Thats big man and I watched him catch the rock with ease and he goes up and gets it too.I WANT HIM IN THE SECOND.

Careful what you say about HUGE HANDS.  Jerome Simpson had big hands.  Look how well he panned out.

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A fast guy that doesn't run a lot of routes, with drop the ball, and is not very physical doesn't seem to fit into our division. When you are playing outside late in the year and wind is blowing, snow is falling, and the field is mess all of that speed won't really mean that much. There are plenty of fast guys that don't know how to read a defense, run precise routes, consistently catch the ball, and make people miss after the catch..I would rather have someone who can excel at the other aspects of playing WR besides just running a fast 40. 

I would rather have a bigger guy like Thomas who can go across the middle, run after the catch, and run more routes or a less athletic but still explosive guy like Shepard that can do it all. 

To me Shepard is getting undervalued throughout this process, his production is insane, he can run any route, and he's able to help out on special teams as a return guy. He's not the biggest guy but Antonio Brown, Wes Welker, Steve Smith, and Tyler Lockett are all guys who are short but make/made big plays in the NFL in recent years. 

 

I like Shepard, but this framing that Shepard had "insane production" and Fuller is just a combine warrior who ran a fast 40 and sucks at all other aspects of receiver is pretty misleading. 

Shepard's combined stats in 2014 and 2015:

137 catches, 2,258 yards, 16 TDs

Fuller's combined stats in 2014 and 2015:

138 catches, 2,352 yards, 29 TDs

 

Fuller's also a full year younger and put up those numbers as a true soph and junior. 

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I like Shepard, but this framing that Shepard had "insane production" and Fuller is just a combine warrior who ran a fast 40 and sucks at all other aspects of receiver is pretty misleading. 

Shepard's combined stats in 2014 and 2015:

137 catches, 2,258 yards, 16 TDs

Fuller's combined stats in 2014 and 2015:

138 catches, 2,352 yards, 29 TDs

 

Fuller's also a full year younger and put up those numbers as a true soph and junior. 

Stats are pretty similar, but there's a couple of other unmentioned factors in there as well:

A) Shep for all intent & purposes, missed the last 6 games of the 2014 season. He caught a 40+ yard jump ball on OU's 1st play of the Iowa State game. On that play, he came down awkwardly & suffered a minor tear in his groin. He missed the rest of that game plus the next 3 altogether, before (to his credit) gutting out the last 2 on one leg when he probably shouldn't have been out there in the first place. After that aforementioned injury, he had 1 catch the rest of the year.

B) I hate mentioning this because there's never been a pair of classier kids than Knight (& Bell in 2013) pass through Norman in my 35+ years of following OU, but it's pretty accurate to say that there was some subpar QB'ing in both 2013 & 2014. I know Golson had turnover issues for ND in '14, but we'd have killed for his production that year.

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Shepherd plays in a weaker conference where everyone puts up huge numbers no comparison when it comes to competition.  There's been a ton of Sooner WRs who put up huge numbers in Oklahoma and never achieve to anything in the NFL.  And if we are comparing stats  why don't we use what Shepard did his sophomore and Junior year like Fuller.  Fuller did great against some stud corner backs. Not sure 8f he fits the Bengals I just don't wanna see him catching bombs from Big Ben.  

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Shepherd plays in a weaker conference where everyone puts up huge numbers no comparison when it comes to competition.  There's been a ton of Sooner WRs who put up huge numbers in Oklahoma and never achieve to anything in the NFL.  And if we are comparing stats  why don't we use what Shepard did his sophomore and Junior year like Fuller.  Fuller did great against some stud corner backs. Not sure 8f he fits the Bengals I just don't wanna see him catching bombs from Big Ben.  

The stealers are still deep at receiver without Bryant. They won't draft one early. I have a feeling they will draft Eli Apple.

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Stats are pretty similar, but there's a couple of other unmentioned factors in there as well:

A) Shep for all intent & purposes, missed the last 6 games of the 2014 season. He caught a 40+ yard jump ball on OU's 1st play of the Iowa State game. On that play, he came down awkwardly & suffered a minor tear in his groin. He missed the rest of that game plus the next 3 altogether, before (to his credit) gutting out the last 2 on one leg when he probably shouldn't have been out there in the first place. After that aforementioned injury, he had 1 catch the rest of the year.

B) I hate mentioning this because there's never been a pair of classier kids than Knight (& Bell in 2013) pass through Norman in my 35+ years of following OU, but it's pretty accurate to say that there was some subpar QB'ing in both 2013 & 2014. I know Golson had turnover issues for ND in '14, but we'd have killed for his production that year.

I'm not anti-Shepard. I like both guys and think both have a chance to be good players at the next level. But I just thought it was unfair to laud Shepard for "insane production" while acting like Fuller didn't put up big numbers as well and casting him as just a workout warrior when in actuality Fuller was every bit as productive. 

It's also worth noting that Football Outsiders did a study and found that college receiving TDs were the biggest predictor of NFL success (much moreso than receptions and yards). That's the one stat where Fuller crushes Shepard. Even if Shepard had been healthy for a few more games, he's not making up the 13 TDs (29 to 16) that Fuller had over him.

Also worth nothing that their study found that the age when guys entered the draft was hugely predictive of success. The seniors were much more likely to be busts compared to the younger guys who left early for the NFL. Fuller put up his huge numbers as a true soph and junior. Shepard had his only really big season as a senior. 

Anyway, I'm a little bit leery of Fuller due to mediocre size and his body-catching. He's not my first choice. But I also don't think he'd be a reach at #24 and he has a hell of a lot going for him and a ton of upside. You don't often see guys coming out who have this combination of elite production and elite speed (and 6 feet tall) and when you do, they usually go in the top 5 (Watkins and Cooper). 

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I'm not anti-Shepard. I like both guys and think both have a chance to be good players at the next level. But I just thought it was unfair to laud Shepard for "insane production" while acting like Fuller didn't put up big numbers as well and casting him as just a workout warrior when in actuality Fuller was every bit as productive. 

It's also worth noting that Football Outsiders did a study and found that college receiving TDs were the biggest predictor of NFL success (much moreso than receptions and yards). That's the one stat where Fuller crushes Shepard. Even if Shepard had been healthy for a few more games, he's not making up the 13 TDs (29 to 16) that Fuller had over him.

Also worth nothing that their study found that the age when guys entered the draft was hugely predictive of success. The seniors were much more likely to be busts compared to the younger guys who left early for the NFL. Fuller put up his huge numbers as a true soph and junior. Shepard had his only really big season as a senior. 

Anyway, I'm a little bit leery of Fuller due to mediocre size and his body-catching. He's not my first choice. But I also don't think he'd be a reach at #24 and he has a hell of a lot going for him and a ton of upside. You don't often see guys coming out who have this combination of elite production and elite speed (and 6 feet tall) and when you do, they usually go in the top 5 (Watkins and Cooper). 

Oh, I agree there. I'm not trying to short change Fuller at all; I think he'll do very well & I wouldn't be upset one bit if we took him. Just explaining there were a couple of not so small circumstances that kept Shep's numbers down to what they were. 

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Fuller has world class speed and comes from big program.  Where Shepard is smaller , slower but shifty. I would not mind seeing Fuller in round 1 or Shepard in round 2 . Shepard reminds me of Peter Warrick who was actually really good until his ACL injury.   But the Bengals love big WRS so I bet they are hoping for Treadwell to drop.  

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Fuller has world class speed and comes from big program.  Where Shepard is smaller , slower but shifty. I would not mind seeing Fuller in round 1 or Shepard in round 2 . Shepard reminds me of Peter Warrick who was actually really good until his ACL injury.   But the Bengals love big WRS so I bet they are hoping for Treadwell to drop.  

Shepard had a weird combine. His numbers were more in line with what you'd expect from a big outside receiver.

Everyone thought he was going to be super quick, but he ran a 4.35 shuttle and 7.00 three-cone. Those were slower than Fuller and also much slower than some of the bigger WRs like Michael Thomas who ran a 4.13 and 6.80. (Thomas' quickness numbers for a 6'3 guy were really impressive btw.)

On the other hand, Shepard went out and jumped a crazy 41-inch vertical. That's impressive, but not necessarily the type of thing you usually see out of a slot receiver. His 4.48 40-time was also really impressive considering how slow the WR times were overall. He also bench pressed 20 times, which is damn good. 

Not sure what (if anything) it means for his evaluation, but IMO he doesn't fit as neatly into the small, quick slot guy box as expected. But that's not all bad because also has the other strong traits that point to him maybe being able to have unexpected success as an outside receiver. 

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