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UK has voted to leave EU


oldschooler

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8 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

So far

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but they've voluntarily reinstated a fuckton of tariffs & other barriers to trade & commerce, so IDK why that would change anytime soon.  I'm reading that the GBP has lost over 10% of its value & has fallen to a 30-year low.  That doesn't seem like the kind of drop that's going to simply bounce back.

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3 hours ago, T-Dub said:

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but they've voluntarily reinstated a fuckton of tariffs & other barriers to trade & commerce, so IDK why that would change anytime soon.  I'm reading that the GBP has lost over 10% of its value & has fallen to a 30-year low.  That doesn't seem like the kind of drop that's going to simply bounce back.

I quite honestly have no idea, everything I'm reading says they would have to redo anything that happened in terms of trade now that this has happened

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Here are some incoherent thoughts on it...

 

The UK are still a member of the EU as they have yet to trigger article 50, which initiates the 2-year-long process of leaving.  The UK will ultimately have to negotiate new deals with all trading partners, although (and this is one of their reasons for leaving) the EU is a bloc and member countries cannot negotiate their own.  According to the German finance minister, there is no way in hell the EU will give the UK a sweet deal -- they have to make it clear to any other country that wants to leave, there is a price. 

Several large companies have already stated they would pull out of the UK if they leave the EU.  The European Patent Office was about to build a complex in London to house a large arm of its organization, but that's on hold for now.

There is currently a movement forming to force a second referendum.  No idea if that might really happen.  News articles are saying Gove and Farange had said with a result as close as 48-52 there would need to be a second referendum.  Since they won, I'd wager they won't hold to that -- much like they are now reneging on other promises like "the money we save on EU member fees will instead be channeled into the National Health Service." 

There's a good chance Scotland will vote for independence from the UK so they can become a member state of the EU.  Northern Ireland could also vote for reunification, but the chances of that are slimmer. 

All of my UK friends living in Germany are still reeling over this and waiting to hear what is going to happen to them.  Realistically, they will likely be allowed to stay, although they hate the uncertainty and are not looking forward to the red tape that will inevitably follow.

 

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9 hours ago, Jamie_B said:

I quite honestly have no idea, everything I'm reading says they would have to redo anything that happened in terms of trade now that this has happened

 

Yeah I'm getting all my info from MSM coverage so the sky is definitely falling.  I question how much that is driving the devalued currency vs. any real economic factors when nothing has actually happened yet.

 

 

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As a Brit living just outside of London, in a working class area, I actually voted to leave (tentatively).  The EU has been good for our large corporations which dictate so much of our economy, and affluent citizens have lived off the perks of "being in the club". But the fact is we have been giving billions of pounds to the EU (2nd largest contributor behind Germany) each year, and getting substantially less back (allegedly less than half our annual contribution). The housing market has suffered more and more to the point that the extra demand has inflated prices through the roof, meaning even rich people are now renting as mortgages are too expensive, Our core industries such as farming and fishing have suffered due to EU quotas in output meaning tons of fish get thrown back into the sea each year. The health service is cracking under extra demand due ti migration and hospitals have been closed in order to save money. We can't control our borders as migrants flood in from the EU and strain our resources. Also, we have less influence in terms of policy making than people realise. Germany always seem to get their legislation passed with the EU parliament, whereas the UK usually gets out voted. It's about time we stopped being dictated to and took our country back.

It's easy for the people living outside the UK to see how wonderful being part of the EU is, but if you live in and around the rural parts of the country, many towns have had facilities closed and more people are living off the state because there is no work available, due to foreign intake and local government budget cuts.

This vote has been a victory for the working class/ small business Britain who seem to have been left out in the could by EU red tape and restrictions. That's why a lot of people (except London and Scotland) have voted to leave. The world's fifth largest economy should get through this initial crash (and possible recession). Other countries will always want to trade with the UK regardless.

London now wants to get back in the EU as an independent country/city which I agree with. Scotland wants independence which I now agree with also. If the Scots want to be part of the EU then democracy suggests they should be given the right to vote in a second independence referendum.

As for people wanting a second EU referendum,,,,,what a load of sour grapes! Democracy has spoken, the "remain in EU campaigners" need to bite the billet. 

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^^ thanks for the insight.

 

I must say though, it's really weird to me that so many Brits are fine with Scotland, possibly Ireland, and even London (!) leaving the UK.  After all the blood & toil spent uniting the country over centuries it's amazing to me that this desire for isolationism would lead to that.

I would also say that your arguments sound a lot like the populist rhetoric & xenophobia taking hold in this country, and while I must give you the benefit of the doubt by virtue of you living there, I seriously doubt that immigration is the root of all your problems.  I can tell you for a fact that the noble pursuits of farming & fishing are not even in the top 10 of your most profitable export categories.  I suspect that your collapsing NHS & the closure of so many other public facilities is due not to the strain of foreigners, but a determined lack of funding by a wealthy elite that have not only convinced the public to blame someone else, but that they making these decisions are not themselves members of that wealthy elite. I don't know about you, but that "just us folks" crap from a billionaire Manhattan real-estate mogul/reality TV star turns my stomach.  I think this Nigel Farage bloke is taking the piss, mate. (Am I doing that right?) At least, that's what's happening here.  You are in a much better place to make that determination for yourself, of course.  I only urge you to do so carefully.

 

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I agree with alot of what your saying here TDubb re: Austerity 

 

Isolationism is not the same thing as not wanting to belong to the union however imo, wanting to have rule over your own country doesnt mean you dont want to trade with others.

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@EnglishBengal sour grapes would be if the remain campaign had said, "we didn't want to remain anyway." ?

What they are doing is being sore losers at best. 

I read an article that said a Leave person set up the petition as he thought his side would lose. Whoops. 

I have also read a theory that now that Cameron has taken the coward's way out by resigning and more importantly not officially triggering Article 50, no one from the Leave campaign will have the stones to commit political suicide and pull the trigger. 

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Reading into the economics a it further, I did some digging (should've done this more BEFORE I voted, but oh well)....

Whilst we were in the EU, got a general consensus based on various press articles:

- Roughly 50% of UK law has been derived from Brussels (EU Parliament), where it has often been the result of the UK been out-voted in the EU parliament against its will

- UK is second largest monetary contributor to EU (after Germany, what a surprise)

- UK is the main trade/banking gateway between the EU and rest of world (which is why so many foreign EU investors are currently based in the UK, selling themselves in the "shop window" so to speak)

- In 2016 UK gives 13 billion pounds per year to EU in monetary contribution/membership fees

- In 2016 UK gets 6 billion pounds back from the above for it's own spending

- All UK businesses trading solely within the UK (normally small/medium sized) are bound by needless red tape and trading restrictions from the EU

- Only 6% of UK business trade with the EU

- In 2016 44% of UK exports go to Europe, worth roughly £25 billion pounds

- In 2016 UK gets back 65 billion pounds roughly in imports from EU, creating a 40 billion pound deficit (taking into account above)

- UK currently has 500 billion pounds in foreign investment from the EU (which more than covers the trade deficit above, for the next 12.5 years)

- Very little of economic wealth generated from trade and investment, seems to trickle down into public services (NHS)

AS A RESULT OF 'BREXIT' (ie.Britain's exit from EU):

- 13 Billion pounds in annual membership fees the EU will no longer have to be paid, freeing up this cash for spending (hopefully wisely), in flagging national industries, such as the NHS, or it could be used as a short term buffer (will the UK negotiates free trade agreements) to help cover the trade deficit (whilst there there is less foreign investment)

- NHS waiting times should decrease due to return of EU migrants (on non-British passports) to their home nations/elsewhere within EU

- The government will have the authority the bail out struggling businesses (ie the steel pits, from a year or two back, had to close) without current EU legislation preventing them

- Foreign investment likely to drop by 22% in UK, making it harder for external EU nations to trade with EU nations unless free trade links between UK and EU continent can be established hence making London still an attractive investment proposition internationally

- Foreign EU banks will likely move away from London's financial hub back to their respective EU countries

- France and Germany will become the new EU co-financial hubs, so more non-European nations will likely trade directly through France and Germany (bypassing UK)

- The potential drop in trade with the UK, will drive business prices up (for how long?) and household income will decrease (by £2200 per year on average, per household)

- Cost of borrowing from banks will likely increase due to economic slow down, which could in turn drive away potential house buyers and cause a slump in the housing market

- The weaker pound may encourage more income from foreign tourism to the UK shores

- The potential elimination of funding for our Universities from the EU will result in the UK having to some how cover/maintain these fees, hopefully not by another rise in student tuition fees

- UK business that don't trade with the EU will be freed up of all red/tape restrictions to trade to wider boundaries, and less production output would have to be scrapped after not meeting EU standards

- Possibility of new trade agreements with emerging world markets outside EU, such as India, Brazil, Canada, rest of commonwealth, without EU restrictions on output, hence creating opportunities for increased export output (hence helping to decrease the trade deficit and the reliance on foreign investment)

I KNOW I COULD SAY MORE BUT THIS IS ALL THE STUFF I COULD THINK OF AT THE TOP OF MY HEAD

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