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UPDATE: Marvin Lewis Should Have Been Fired Upon End Of Disappointing Season


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9 hours ago, LostInDaJungle said:

Yeah... but that take is not in line with the rest of the NFL. Most sites rate DeCastro and Zeitler right around the same. DeCastro with a better run block, Zeitler better in pass pro. Kevin Zeitler was the only RG in 2015 with 500 or more pass-blocks and no sacks allowed (per PFF). Pretty incredible stat. He also has not missed a snap for the Bengals in 6 years. Durability is worth something.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/07/13/nfl-position-rankings-guards-marshal-yanda-trai-turner

Zeitler #8, DeCastro #9.


However, that's  not the issue - The issue is that this is Zeitler's contract year, not DeCastro's. And right now, if you have a hole on the line, you're willing to pay Zeitler. Much like Dre Kirkpatrick is going to get paid less because there's a ton of good CB's in FA this year, Zeitler is going to benefit from the guard class being thin. Google the news on him, and about half of the league is licking their chops hoping to get him. 

That said, we paid the guy $8M for last season already. So, don't forget to factor that into your cap numbers. We could probably resign him for last year's cap plus Domata Peko. (Or Maualuga, or Vinny Rey, or...) Call me crazy, but I'd take Zeitler over Westerman and Peko. (DeCastro signed for 5 years, $50M. Should be a ballpark figure...) It is incredible to me, when I look at the cap numbers, Adam Jones is our 4th highest paid player. We have $44M in cap space, 12th in the league, and 4 roster spots to fill. If you factor out previous year adjustments (Cleveland is carrying $50M of cap space forward from last year!) we're in an even better position. Previous year adjustments don't help you fit multi-year deals under your cap.

Chances are that Zeitler will command a hefty salary this offseason. I hesitate to use the term "more than he's worth", but more than he would get in a more crowded market. The Bengals have already gone through a round of negotiations with him last year and he's still not signed. My big concern is that a team like Cleveland will throw crazy money at him. Like, how do you even start spending $110M in cap space with 65 guys already on the roster? They could be in a good position to offer him a big chunk up front too.

IMHO - There's a reason that he's going to get big money, and it's because quality guards don't grow on trees. If it was as easy to move an underperforming tackle or just draft a guy in the 4th round as some might think, teams would do that instead. If he's less than $11M a year, we'd be insane to let him go.
 

He's going to be at least what DeCastro got and probably more, so your $11mm/yr figure is probably accurate. With that being the case and when you consider the money they are paying Boling you understand why he will not be back with the Bengals this year. I'm sure they offered him a fair deal with a bit of a hometown discount in place and wisely he turned it down. 

They should have someone on the roster that can play that position at a high enough level to replace Zeitler, TJ Johnson, Westerman, Fisher, or an draft pick. 

 

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4 minutes ago, PatternMaster said:

He's going to be at least what DeCastro got and probably more, so your $11mm/yr figure is probably accurate. With that being the case and when you consider the money they are paying Boling you understand why he will not be back with the Bengals this year. I'm sure they offered him a fair deal with a bit of a hometown discount in place and wisely he turned it down. 

They should have someone on the roster that can play that position at a high enough level to replace Zeitler, TJ Johnson, Westerman, Fisher, or an draft pick. 

 

Zeitler isn't a perennial All-Pro, but there's close to no possible chance that any of those guys could step in without it being an obvious downgrade. Zeitler is a very good RG, that's not so easily replaceable.

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10 minutes ago, omgdrdoom said:

Zeitler isn't a perennial All-Pro, but there's close to no possible chance that any of those guys could step in without it being an obvious downgrade. Zeitler is a very good RG, that's not so easily replaceable.

Well you most of the times in life you get what you pay for, so if the Bengals want to go cheap at RG then that's what they will get. Alexander will be under the spotlight to see what he can do with all of the young OL talent the Bengals have amassed over the past few years, the cupboards are not completely bare. In theory he should be able to develop someone who can play RG well enough to not have the offense fall off dramatically. 

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I still think this guy will be our next mauler guard...I hope, anyway.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/christian-westerman?id=2555131

It's comments like these that keep me positive. He was a badass in college, hopefully he gets his shot this year.

Quote

DRAFT ANALYSIS:

The interior of the Bengals line showed some soft spots last season and there are some contract years approaching. Westerman was expected to go much sooner so this is a nice value in the middle of Round 5. He's a country-strong technician who can contribute in all 3 interior spots. --Mark Dulgerian

 

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I was looking around, attempting to find an article or blurb as to just why CW had so little playing time this past season. Couldn't find anything. I did see one CincyJungle analysis after the second preseason game, and it was a rave review. Called him "tough, quick, strong, and cerebral" And this was at his natural position, RG. 

Could be another example of ML's redshirt rules, and the fact Zeitler played well and wasn't hurt all year?

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37 minutes ago, Le Tigre said:

I was looking around, attempting to find an article or blurb as to just why CW had so little playing time this past season. Couldn't find anything. I did see one CincyJungle analysis after the second preseason game, and it was a rave review. Called him "tough, quick, strong, and cerebral" And this was at his natural position, RG. 

Could be another example of ML's redshirt rules, and the fact Zeitler played well and wasn't hurt all year?

1. Isn't his natural position LG? I know he started on the left side in all of 2014 but not sure about 2015. You'd think he would have seen some time considering Boling's injury.

2. I don't think Marvin Lewis has any "redshirt rule", and I'm really not sure where fans come up with that one but I hear it all the time. The Bengals play rookies when necessary just like every other team. It's not always a good thing to be relying on rookies getting heavy play time year after year. We've also had some unfortunate injuries occur with our highest picks as of late, and your top picks are usually the NFL ready, immediate impact guys. WJIII would have definitely seen some snaps and Billings would have seen a couple/few hundred if he weren't injured. Tyler Boyd played 700+ snaps last year.

There's a LOT that goes into rookies seeing the field. A lot of college kids aren't ready for the NFL quite yet, they're taken as projects to develop. Sometimes we have a deeper roster at certain positions and guys get buried. Sometimes we don't take players worth seeing the field. So on and so forth, we could discuss that all day. I just always find it odd that people make comments about Marvin not playing rookies whenever we've seen a lot of snaps come from our high round, young players when they're healthy.

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5 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

When a new guy does come in and play well, the thinking tends towards "Why wasn't he playing sooner?" instead of the more logical "The coaches did a good job preparing this guy"

Yeah I'm pretty critical of the coaching staff but I've never understood the "Marvin refuses to play rookies!!!" narrative. I've seen plenty of rookies taking a lot of snaps around here, and I'm assuming the numbers aren't significantly less than other good teams if you look at Marvin's entire tenure. Some years have been low with our top picks being injured, can't really play them if they get hurt before the season starts. Should we really want our roster being at the point where we're drafting 5th rounders to start?

As far as people hoping we have someone already on the roster to play RG, there was obviously something going on with Westerman last year. He played LG in college and our LG got injured. Perfect, let's see what we have in Westerman. LOLJ/K. Westerman made the roster but was active in just 1 single game all of last year. Hell, they brought up Trey f'n Hopkins from the PS and gave him a few snaps with Westerman getting a big, fat 0 for the year. They were content shuffling the line around when there were o-line injuries, including letting Ogbuehi protect Andy's blindside....but still no Westerman to be seen. T.J. Johnson even started a football game, neato.

Rolling into the season with Bodine, Westerman, Ogbuehi on the right side of the line probably isn't the plan.

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5 hours ago, omgdrdoom said:

I appreciate the assessment, nice to see some well thought out posts. I agree with some parts and believe others are flawed.

1. Your article trying to prove them as equals is from the summer of 2016. There have been 16+ NFL games played by each of these guys since then, and DeCastro has solidified himself as a top tier NFL RG over the last couple of seasons. 1 writer's opinion on Sports Illustrated doesn't change that. You claim "most sites rate DeCastro and Zeitler right around the same", so let's see those sites. One guy has had a 1st team and 2nd team All-Pro nod in 2015 and 2016 respectively, and the other guy hasn't made an All-Pro team in his career. Also, that no sacks allowed is subjective. There's another analytics website that gave Zeitler 2 sacks in 2015. That number is huge because according to PFF, he had given up less than DeCastro, according to STATS (per your link) he was given 2, which is more than DeCastro in 2015. I'd like to all of your sources that are "in line with the NFL" and "most sites" having them rated as near equal guards.

2. Zeitler is absolutely THE hot commodity of the entire OL UFA list. I agree with you there. What do you mean by "don't forget to factor that into your cap numbers" when regarding the $8 million though? I'm not sure what you're trying to suggest with that. Our cap space available is what it currently is right now, that money is already off the books. It's already factoring into what everybody knows about our cap space. We have about $45 million available and the only way we have more is if we cut guys that you mentioned like Pacman and Maualuga loose. If I missed your point, I apologize, but it didn't seem clear as to why you'd mention it as if that $8 million we paid last year is relevant in 2017 going forward.

3. $45 million isn't a ton of cap space when you have players to pay, and we certainly have more than 4 roster spots to fill. LT, NT, WR2, CB1, SAM, RG, RT2, ST captain, 3 rotational d-linemen, and RB3 are all free agents this year. That's not even getting to how the Bengals like to extend their top guys ahead of time with Hill, Eifert, and Burfict all to be considered for extensions over the next year. The Bengals ALWAYS keep money for a "just in case" due to injuries, so put away a few million for that. Rookies need signed, you have to figure at least 4 will be in our top 51 for cap purposes with 1 of them being a top 10 pick. There's an easy $5+ million to put away right there. Whoever we don't re-sign has a hole to fill, plus are you really content with rolling into this coming season with the identical roster that we just missed the playoffs for the first time in 6 years with? I'm not. Changes need to be made. We need to see a couple of outside FAs brought in, and those guys cost money even if it's just a couple million here and couple million there. I'm not trying to sound like Geoff Hobspin here, but $45 million isn't nearly infinite money when you're dealing with an offseason with 3 of your better players becoming UFAs, at least 1 or 2 guys needing extensions, and fielding a roster that missed the playoffs with obvious holes in it.

4. I agree with basically everything I didn't touch in those points. Zeitler is going to get PAID, whether it's by us or not. That's kind of why I feel like it's not going to be us. You mentioned that we've gone through a round of negotiations with him already so it's clear we don't want to give him what he wants. It takes 2 to tango, so I don't think we see Zeitler in stripes next year even if we offer him a "fair" contract. Cleveland, as you said, could easily throw a truck of money at him and have a huge guarantee attached. There are other guard needy teams with cap space as well. It's definitely not as easy as moving a young tackle or drafting a guy late to fill the hole, but what do you honestly think the Bengals are going to do once Zeitler walks? You already mentioned how the guard pool is thin this offseason, so unless we go RG in rounds 1-2, look out for a youngster on the roster to take his spot or for the team to try to shift guys around on the line like Jake Fisher. I'm not saying that's what I WANT to happen, just what I can see coming once we let Zeitler walk. Regardless of that 1 guy in Sports Illustrated a year ago saying Zeitler and DeCastro are on the same page, I don't think Zeitler is DeCastro's equal, but in this current market I'm not going to be surprised to see him land a bigger contract. The kid is definitely a great player and has a lot of upside as he's still young, it'll suck to see the 1 side of our line become Bodine, ???, Ogbuehi.

As far as guard rankings, there aren't many to go on. That was the top Google result. Madden has Zeitler rated higher than DeCastro. (Z: 88, D: 86) Pick a metric... It's not like we've ever known Bengals fans to think that someone else's player is always better. At worst, they're about equal.

As far as we already paid him $8M last season... That means that giving him $11M this season is a +3M cap hit. Not terrible. (Sportrac estimates 11.6M to resign Zeitler)

Whitworth will most likely be resigned at LT, and probably at less of a cap hit than 2016. ($9M) If not, we already have 2 recent draft picks. If neither of them can play, get their $4M off the books and sign a guy who can.

NT? Again, we have guys in the building. Sims, Hardison, Thompson, Williams. None could be much of a downgrade from Peko. ($3.7M in 2016) Peko will most likely be available for the vet minimum.

WR2? Boyd, Core. LaFell was a $1.1M FA last year. Resign him.

CB1? If we don't re-sign Kirk, we have two first round picks behind him.

Sam? Yes, let's not resign Zeitler so we can pick up another Hawk or Dansby. Vinny Rey, Nick Vigil, Draft. (Frankly, if Rey can't man the SAM spot, why are we paying him $3M a year?)

RG is Zeitler. And one of the few positions where there is no heir apparent.

And for the rest, you're willing to let a starter go to pay a backup RT, a ST captain, rotational linemen, and a 3rd RB?

So, with $45 Million, we need to resign 3 guys (Whit, Kirk, Z), draft some backups... Assume that we resign Whit to another $9M deal, and Zeitler to $11M... That's only $25 Million to resign Kirk, LaFell, and some draft picks. I dare say there's a even some left over to pick up a 3RB and some rotational d-linemen. You can Hobson the numbers all you like, but we have room to sign Zeitler.

 

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30 minutes ago, LostInDaJungle said:

As far as guard rankings, there aren't many to go on. That was the top Google result. Madden has Zeitler rated higher than DeCastro. (Z: 88, D: 86) Pick a metric... It's not like we've ever known Bengals fans to think that someone else's player is always better. At worst, they're about equal.

As far as we already paid him $8M last season... That means that giving him $11M this season is a +3M cap hit. Not terrible. (Sportrac estimates 11.6M to resign Zeitler)

Whitworth will most likely be resigned at LT, and probably at less of a cap hit than 2016. ($9M) If not, we already have 2 recent draft picks. If neither of them can play, get their $4M off the books and sign a guy who can.

NT? Again, we have guys in the building. Sims, Hardison, Thompson, Williams. None could be much of a downgrade from Peko. ($3.7M in 2016) Peko will most likely be available for the vet minimum.

WR2? Boyd, Core. LaFell was a $1.1M FA last year. Resign him.

CB1? If we don't re-sign Kirk, we have two first round picks behind him.

Sam? Yes, let's not resign Zeitler so we can pick up another Hawk or Dansby. Vinny Rey, Nick Vigil, Draft. (Frankly, if Rey can't man the SAM spot, why are we paying him $3M a year?)

RG is Zeitler. And one of the few positions where there is no heir apparent.

And for the rest, you're willing to let a starter go to pay a backup RT, a ST captain, rotational linemen, and a 3rd RB?

So, with $45 Million, we need to resign 3 guys (Whit, Kirk, Z), draft some backups... Assume that we resign Whit to another $9M deal, and Zeitler to $11M... That's only $25 Million to resign Kirk, LaFell, and some draft picks. I dare say there's a even some left over to pick up a 3RB and some rotational d-linemen. You can Hobson the numbers all you like, but we have room to sign Zeitler.

 

Whoa, whoa, whoa.

Where did I say we didn't have room for Zeitler?

You made a claim in your original post that we had "4 roster spots to fill" with our projected cap space, I was merely pointing out why that was untrue.

That was a lot of typing to disagree with something I never even said or suggested. You took that whole post to argue 1 point and it wasn't even something I said. We're going to lose Zeitler to someone (the Browns) "overpaying" him, not because we can't afford him. I don't think the Bengals are going to give him modern day, elite guard money.

I'm not Hobsoning anything, Hobson is a clown, I was just pointing out that there's more to the offseason than "we have $45 million, so that obviously means we can sign X, Y, and Z".

God dammit. I just realized you pulled out Madden ratings. Hahahahahahahahahahaha oh well, I thought you were reasonable at first, at least. Sorry. Don't assume I'm a Bengals fan that thinks everyone outside of the organization is better than our guys, because I'm not. Also, there are just as many that seem to think everyone in stripes is automatically better than anyone outside of the organization, but I won't assume you're one of them until I have good reason to. Look, DeCastro is clearly better than Zeitler. You don't make 1st and 2nd team All-Pros for no reason. YOU made the claim that "  "most sites rate DeCastro and Zeitler right around the same", but now you're backtracking saying there aren't many sites that rank guards? Hmmmm...interesting. YOU made the claim that DeCastro being better than Zeitler "isn't in line with the NFL" even though DeCastro has had 2 All-Pro seasons and Zeitler has had 0. Hmmmm...interesting.

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1 hour ago, omgdrdoom said:

Whoa, whoa, whoa.

Where did I say we didn't have room for Zeitler?

You made a claim in your original post that we had "4 roster spots to fill" with our projected cap space, I was merely pointing out why that was untrue.

That was a lot of typing to disagree with something I never even said or suggested. You took that whole post to argue 1 point and it wasn't even something I said. We're going to lose Zeitler to someone (the Browns) "overpaying" him, not because we can't afford him. I don't think the Bengals are going to give him modern day, elite guard money.

I'm not Hobsoning anything, Hobson is a clown, I was just pointing out that there's more to the offseason than "we have $45 million, so that obviously means we can sign X, Y, and Z".

God dammit. I just realized you pulled out Madden ratings. Hahahahahahahahahahaha oh well, I thought you were reasonable at first, at least. Sorry. Don't assume I'm a Bengals fan that thinks everyone outside of the organization is better than our guys, because I'm not. Also, there are just as many that seem to think everyone in stripes is automatically better than anyone outside of the organization, but I won't assume you're one of them until I have good reason to. Look, DeCastro is clearly better than Zeitler. You don't make 1st and 2nd team All-Pros for no reason. YOU made the claim that "  "most sites rate DeCastro and Zeitler right around the same", but now you're backtracking saying there aren't many sites that rank guards? Hmmmm...interesting. YOU made the claim that DeCastro being better than Zeitler "isn't in line with the NFL" even though DeCastro has had 2 All-Pro seasons and Zeitler has had 0. Hmmmm...interesting.We'll gain more players in the draft than we lost this year due to expiring contracts. If you want to get technical, those roster spots are already filled.


I point out an SI article, and you have a problem with that. You have a problem with PFF... I point out another metric, and now I'm unreasonable. It's easier to fling poo I guess. It's not like you offered much beyond "because I say so".

You bemoan the lack of reasonable conversation and then react this way to someone who responds to you? 

Hope your day gets better.

 

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16 hours ago, LostInDaJungle said:


I point out an SI article, and you have a problem with that. You have a problem with PFF... I point out another metric, and now I'm unreasonable. It's easier to fling poo I guess. It's not like you offered much beyond "because I say so".

You bemoan the lack of reasonable conversation and then react this way to someone who responds to you? 

Hope your day gets better.

 

Look, sorry for being a bit hostile, but I thought you were trying to have a legitimate conversation and then you insinuated that I'm just a fan that thinks everyone outside of Cincinnati is better than the guys on the Bengals and made a comment about me Hobsoning the numbers which is what bothered me. I think we can have a reasonable discussion about this.

The only reason I'm pointing out where our money is going is because it's what the Bengals do. I'm not saying what I WANT them to do, but rather what they're 100% going to do. You seem to follow the team close enough to know their patterns with $$$$. Hobson puts out his shitty articles for a reason. He gets his information straight from the front office. How many times does Hobson put out an article about what's going to happen and then it doesn't happen? He's usually pretty accurate with the stuff whether we like it or not. It's a bunch of bullshit spin but it's bullshit spin coming from the guys that make the decisions.

They keep money for an "injury pool" of sorts. How fucking ridiculous is that? I think it's the most asinine thing they tell us every season, but it doesn't stop it from being what they do with their money. Seriously though, WTF is the point of keeping $5 - $10 million "just in case injuries happen during the season"??? Why do they need so much set aside? Is Cameron Wake going to be sitting in free agency in week 6 of the regular season that we're going to need to sign? If someone gets hurt, we start their backup and we sign some shit-tier free agent and call someone up from the PS to fill out the roster spot. When is the last time we've seen an injury and the Bengals sign a $5 million free agent to fill his spot? Hell, when are there players sitting on the market mid-season worth a $5 million contract? AAARRRRGGGGGHHHH. That's one of the things about the FO that frustrates me beyond belief. Anyway...

You claim I've "had a problem" with your articles and you're acting like that's for no reason. I "had a problem" with the SI link because it was over a year old. I think that's a legitimate thing to point out. PFF is subjective, but I'll take their thoughts over Madden ratings. All I asked for was for you to provide all the links you said you had when you mentioned how "most sites" rate them about the same. You could have just said "Okay, there aren't many metrics out there, but I still think Zeitler is equal or better". Instead you try to act like I'M doing something wrong. I absolutely offered more than "because I said so". I've mentioned All-Pro teams multiple times. It's not the Pro Bowl which is a joke, but All-Pro teams are a legitimate accomplishment in the league, especially when a guy is named to 1st team and 2nd team in consecutive years. That's a great accomplishment and it means more to me than Madden ratings, PFF grades, or a year old SI article. You're correct that PFF had them about equal this past year, and Zeitler even received 1 All-Pro vote in 2016, and I've said I believe he's a very good RG myself! I don't think our opinions are very far off, I just do believe DeCastro is clearly better at this point and yes, it's partially "because I said so" in the fact that I've watched them both play 16 games for the past few seasons to come to the conclusion and I also think the All-Pro teams definitely mean something. We don't have to agree on it, but I believe I've done more than fling poo and say because I said so. I think they could be considered close to equal, depending on how you look at it, but I'm personally in the camp of DeCastro being on the next tier than Zeitler. We can agree to disagree if you'd like.

Now, as far as what we WANT the Bengals to do, I bet we're pretty close on that. You can let me know what your thoughts are, but if I were making 100% of the decisions this offseason, I'd...

Cut Pacman, cut Maualuga, free up about $9.9 million. Let's be conservative and say that gives us $54 million in cap space now.

Whit - $9 million average for 2 years, give him his retirement contract.

Dre Kirk - $14 million franchise tag and work out a long term deal

Zeitler - $11 million per over 4 years

Let Peko walk. Let LaFell walk as he probably played himself to a bigger contract with another team.

CB is pretty deep, grab another vet for $3 - $6 million per year for 2 years while our young guys develop (WJIII) or end up not being very good (Dennard). There are a few options here but I'm not exactly sure who would fit our scheme the best in that price range. Have to see how the market settles once A.J. Bouye, Trumaine Johnson, and the other big names get their deals.

Re-sign some rotational guys like Gilberry for $1 mil or less per. Keep Peerman OR Burkhead and replace the other in the draft. Don't re-sign both.

Sign Jarvis Jones, should only be a couple million per year, and convert him to the 4-3 but not an every down backer. He has potential and has been greatly improving against the run in PITT and doesn't look like they're going to re-sign him.

I'd love a guy like Keenan Robinson but doesn't look like he'll be available. Would like to see more LBs come from free agency and not rely solely on the draft there.

Something like that, but there are pros and cons to this idea. We'd be in great need of a WR2, still have question marks at LB, and wouldn't have $$$ leftover for extensions for Eifert or Burfict (fuck Bodine and Hill). Positives would be our "big 3" all re-signed, get some of the garbage out with Smackman and Maualuga, and having another proven commodity at CB and LBs from free agency would be nicer than relying on rookies or over the hill scrap tier free agents.

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"Hobsoning the numbers" is something we used often at the old board I was a refugee from. It's not meant as a dig. In addition, I may quote you, but that doesn't mean that everything I type is directed AT you. I'm also responding to the general zeitgeist of the thread. We're not having a solo debate here, we're talking in a group.

I don't know what ratings you consider legit or don't. You think All-Pro matters but PFF doesn't. OK. I happen to think that the All-Pro voting is still influenced by what team you're on and how successful that team is. IMHO, if the Stealers had taken Zeitler and we had taken DeCastro, we'd be talking about how Zeitler has more All-Pro appearances. That is just my opinion and doesn't mean I have to belittle you or declare that your entire post is invalid because I have some unspoken rule about All-Pro not mattering.

"Well you should have said" - is just being pedantic. You can pick corn from the crap all day, but that doesn't mean I shit tortillas. If you want to take issue with the one phrase "most sites"... Then show me some sites that don't think they're close or equal. I'm very willing to have that conversation. "I know it from watching them play" - Well, very nice to meet you Mr. Alexander. I played at the college level for 4 years, and I still know very little about how to really rate an RG. Even those who did play line will tell you that you'd need to know what the guy's assignment was, the line calls made...

Hell, Zeitler will probably get paid more than DeCastro. If nothing else that's the NFL putting money behind that opinion.

And at this point, I have spent too much time on a conversation I consider unpleasant. Let's both move on and let this be a part of the past.

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11 hours ago, High School Harry said:

Re-sign Margus.

Why?

In his best season (2016), his 322 defensive snaps gave us 5 total pressures, 7 solo tackles, 5 missed/broken tackles, 0 sacks, 2 passed batted down, 2 stuffs, and then 3 blocked kicks on ST duty.

I meaaannnnn, the blocked kicks are cool! That's about it. Pretty sure we can and should be asking for better. Michael Johnson looks like Reggie White compared to Hunt and people are complaining that we aren't replacing MJ.

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