MichaelWeston Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 While the coaching carousel tends to get more of a focus, one of my favorite things each year is to explore the QB carousel and who will land where. While the position couldn’t be more important and tied to a teams success on the field, scarcity amongst players coming in through the draft and the aging of more than a handful of the names that have become so common makes finding the right guy difficult. What follows is a look at the teams with needs at the position, a look at the potential guys available to fill those needs and a bad guess at where they will go. Teams Categories Definitely Looking 1. Jets: Ryan Fitzpatrick was a mess and while Christian Hackenberg (2nd round 2016) and Bryce Petty are investments that you can’t rule out quite yet, they don’t seem like the long term answer. 2. Browns: RG3 has another year on his contract with the Browns but he is often injured and inconsistent. His contract escalates too high for him to stick around. McCown has another year as well but has found himself at the end of the depth chart. 2016 3rd rounder Cody Kessler hasn’t looked bad but the team keeps playing others over him. His stats are pretty solid for a team with a terrible roster elsewhere. 3. Texans: Brock Osweiler was given a huge deal but has been awful this season and has been benched. 2014 4th round pick Tom Savage has been an improvement in the last two games but isn’t a surefire solution. 4. Jaguars: Blake Bortles regressed with his mechanics this year and it has been a mess after a great 2015. With Gus Bradley out as Head Coach the Jags GM has already said that the new coach won’t be forced to stick with Bortles next year. Backup Chad Henne is signed through 2017. 2016 6th rounder Brandon Allen rounds out the roster. 5. Bears: GLENNON Jay Cutler wasn’t good then wasn’t healthy and is likely on his way out. Matt Barkley and Brian Hoyer, before his injury, served as backups and both moved the team better despite a mess at WR and TE. Both are Free agents. David Fales rounds out the roster and will be a restricted free agent in the offseason. 6. 49ers: HOYER Colin Kaepernick returned to the starter role late in the season but isn’t consistent enough to keep the job. He will likely be released in the offseason with his cap friendly deal. Blaine Gabbert didn’t impress as a starter and is a free agent in 2017. Third string QB Christian Ponder is a free agent this offseason as well. Might be Looking 1. Bills: Tyrod Taylor is certainly not a surefire answer at QB but is probably one of the best 32 in the league to play the position. He has an option that needs to be picked up on his contract that makes things a bit cloudy for 2017 and beyond. Cardale Jones is on the roster but raw. Former first round pick EJ Manuel is a Free Agent. 2. Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill is another guy who has an escalating contract that puts his 2017 cap number very high. His play on the field and recent knee injury could lead to the Dolphins moving on at the position. Veteran Matt Moore is his backup. 3. Chiefs: Alex Smith has just 15 passing TDs this year but he did lead the Chiefs to the playoffs. He has 2 more years on a very friendly contract for the Chiefs. His Backup Nick Foles filled in admirably this year but has a contract that escalates into the 10M range. He is likely to be gone or renegotiate. Tyler Bray rounds out the roster. 4. Redskins: Kirk Cousins has had a great season but is a free agent after playing on the Franchise tag this year. He will get a big contract somewhere. I don’t see the Redskins letting him go. Colt McCoy signed a 3 year deal in the offseason to back him up. 2016 6th rounder Nate Sudfeld rounds out the roster. Looking for down the road 1. Patriots: Tom Brady is in the MVP race but he will be 40 when next season rolls around. Jimmy Garoppolo played well when Brady was out due to suspension. He is a free agent after 2017 and there might be a very tempting trade market for him this offseason. The Patriots drafted Jacoby Brissett in the 3rd round of 2016, possibly to allow them to trade Garoppolo and have a long term solution at the position. 2. Stealers: Ben Roethlisberger has had another solid year at age 34. His backup Landry Jones is a free agent and is unlikely to be back because they probably don’t see him as the long term answer at the position. Zach Mettenberger was kept around as third QB this year and will be under contract for next year. He is still just 25. 3. Chargers: Philip Rivers turned 35 in December but had a solid year with tons of injuries to his offense. He is backed up by 33 year old Kellen Clemons who is a free agent this offseason. 4. Giants: Eli Manning turned 36 January 3rd. He had a down year but the Giants still made it to the playoffs. He has 3 more years on his contract that are pretty Giant friendly for a starting QB. Backups Ryan Nassib and Josh Johnson are free agents this offseason. 5. Saints: Drew Brees has had an incredible year. He is 38. Backup Luke McCown is signed through 2017. 6. Cardinals: 36 year old Carson Palmer was pretty bad this year. He has two more years on his contract. Backup Drew Stanton is 32 and signed through 2017. Close to Set 1. Ravens: Joe Flacco is certainly not perfect but he’s probably not going anywhere after signing a big deal last offseason. Backup Ryan Mallett is a Free Agent at the end of the year. 2. Vikings: The Vikings gave up a ton for Sam Bradford and there is a chance Teddy Bridgewater will be back next year to compete for the spot. Bradford hasn’t been fantastic but the team has had no running game whatsoever. 37 year old Shaun Hill served as the backup this year but is a Free Agent. Set 1. Bengals: Andy Dalton hasn’t been perfect this year with just 18 tds but he certainly isn’t a guy on the low end of starting QBs. AJ McCarron is a very capable backup who could have a trade market this offseason. He has a confusing contract situation that could see him as an RFA after 2017 meaning the Bengals might be patient when it comes to trading him this offseason. Cincinnati uncharacteristically kept a third QB this season after snagging 2016 49er 6th round pick Jeff Driskel off waivers before the season started. Perhaps to prepare for losing McCarron. 2. Colts: Andrew Luck has bounced back after a down year. He is signed through 2021. Backup Scott Tolzien is signed through next year. 3. Titans: Marcus Mariota would be firmly in the “Set” category if not for his recent broken ankle. Still, he is sure to be given the chance to get back to where he was this year. However, an ankle injury for a guy who relies on mobility is never a good thing. Backup Matt Cassel is a Free Agent. 4. Broncos: Trevor Siemian has been the surprise of the QB group this year. He hasn’t been perfect but much better than Osweiler. Last year’s 1st round pick Paxton Lynch hasn’t looked great in his two starts this year but will start the final game. Austin Davis who didn’t look terrible with the Rams in 2014 is the 3rd string and signed through 2017. 5. Raiders: Derek Carr has been excellent this year but is done for the year with a broken fibula. Pending free agent Matt McGloin will be filling in for Carr to end the season and into the playoffs. 2016 4th round pick Connor Cook rounds out the roster. 6. Cowboys: 2016 4th rounder Dak Prescott was the surprise of the year taking over for Tony Romo and playing so well the he is possibly the offensive rookie of the year. Romo has three years left on his deal but it’s likely he will be finish off his career elsewhere. Third Stringer Mark Sanchez is a free agent this offseason. 7. Eagles: 2016 1st rounder Carson Wentz started out very hot but has 9 interceptions in his last 6 games. Still he is certain to get time to develop at QB. Backup Chase Daniels deal runs for the next two years. However he is 30, would love a chance to be able to start and is due 14 million over the next 2 years. 8. Lions: Matthew Stafford has had a solid year guiding the Lions to the playoffs. He is a free agent after next year but only 29 at the start of next season. Backup Dan Orlovsky is a free agent this off season. 9. Packers: Aaron Rodgers is the best or near the best QB in football. He is 33 and signed through 2019. Rodgers is backed up by 2015 5th round pick Brett Hundley. 10. Falcons: Matt Ryan has had a great year and is signed through 2018. 35 year old Matt Schaub backs up Ryan and is a Free Agent. 11. Panthers: CamNewton and the Panthers had a very down year. However he is coming off an MVP season and is signed through 2020. Backup Derek Anderson is signed through 2017. Versatile Joe Webb serves as the 3rd QB and is signed through 2017. 12. Buccaneers: Jameis Winston was solid in his second year with the Bucs and will only improve with WR Mike Evans. Backup Mike Glennon will likely be a sought after option on the free agent market this summer. 3rd stringer Ryan Griffin is also a free agent. 13. Rams: The Rams paid a lot for last years number 1 overall pick Jared Goff and no matter who the coach is next year he is certain to get a chance to run the team. Case Keenum started the first 10 games for the team but is a free agent this offseason. 2015 3rd round pick Sean Mannion rounds out the roster. 14. Seahawks: Russell Wilson has been solid again this year and has the Seahawks in contention once again. Rookie Trevone Boykin served as his backup this year. Players Free Agents out there Kirk Cousins-Redskins: Cousins has had a sold year playing under the franchise tag. His stats last year were 4,917 yards, 25-12 and 67%. He also had 4 running tds. He has 41 career starts. He is pretty certain to get a long term contract somewhere. Mike Glennon-Buccaneers: Glennon is the top candidate on the market who is most likely to change teams. He played sparingly this year with only 10 completions on 11 attempts. His career stats paint a very good picture. 18 starts, 4100 yards, 30-15 and 59%. Brian Hoyer-Bears: Hoyer had some quality starts for the Bears this year and wasn’t terrible for the Texans in 2015. He has 31 career starts and a passer rating of 98 in 2016 and 91.4 in 2015. This year he had 1,445 yards, 6-0 and 67%. He’s played for 5 teams in his career. Landry Jones-Stealers: Jones has 4 starts over his career with the Stealers. This year he has filled in well with 558 yards, 4-2 and 61%. Matt Barkley-Bears: Barkley wasn’t good enough for the Cardinals or the Eagles but was ok at times for the Bears. He had the only 6 starts of his career this season throwing for 1,611 yards, 8-14 and 59.7%. He had 3 300 yard games. Geno Smith-Jets: Smith has 30 career starts but is coming off an ACL tear and a broken jaw. Ryan Fitzpatrick-Jets: Fitzpatrick held out and then played very poorly with 12 tds and 17 ints. He is a veteran though with 116 career starts. Case Keenum-Rams: Keenum started for most of the year and was not inspiring. He’s got 25 career starts in Houston and LA. This year he threw for 2,201 yards, 9-11 and 61%. Cap Casualties/Cuts/Trades: Tony Romo-Cowboys: The 36 year old Romo has 127 career starts but just 4 in the past 2 years and just 4 pass attempts in 2016. He has a huge contract so it will be interesting to see what happens now that Dak Prescott is the starter in Dallas. Alex Smith-Chiefs: Smith is almost certainly back in KC with the Chiefs securing a bye in the playoffs. However he hasn’t been great in 2016 with just 15 tds. He has 136 starts in his career. Tyrod Taylor-Bills: Taylor is likely out in Buffalo with a very convoluted salary issue. The 27 years old has 29 career starts. This year he threw for 3,023 yards, 17-6 and 61.7% with an additional 6 tds on the ground. Jay Cutler-Bears: Cutler has been injured and not good all year. The 33 years old has 139 career starts. This year he started 5 games with 1059 yards, 4-5 and 59%. He has a 2 million dollar cap hit if released saving the Bears 16 million. Nick Foles-Chiefs: Foles has 35 career starts and a lifetime 88.1 passer rating. He is on his 3rd team despite being just 27. This year he threw for 410 yards, 3-0 and 65%. He is due 10.75 Million in 2017 with 0 dead cap. Colin Kaepernick-49ers: Kaepernick was replaced by Gabbert then won the job back. The 29 year old has 59 career starts. This year he had 2,241 yards, 16-4 and 59% and 2 tds on the ground. Blake Bortles-Jaguars: After a great second year Bortles has been terrible this year and his mechanics have been awful. The former first round pick has 45 career starts. This year he had 3,905 yards, 23-16 and 59%. He may get another year in Jacksonville but the Jaguars are open to going in another direction. Robert Griffin III-Browns: Griffins contract escalates past his erratic play and inability to stay healthy. The former first overall pick has 40 career starts. He had 886 yards this year and 2-3 with 59%. Trade Only: Jimmy Garoppolo-Patriots: The third year player has 2 career starts both this year filling in for a suspended Brady. He will be a free agent in the 2018 offseason making a trade more likely. His stats this year in the two games were 502 yards, 4-0 and 68%. AJ McCarron-Bengals: McCarron will only be a restricted free agent after this year making him that much more enticing for a team. Although he didn’t play this year he filled in admirably for an injured Dalton in 2015. 854 yards, 6-2, 66%.Chase Daniel-Eagles: Daniel has bounced around from New Orleans to KC to Philly searching for a chance to play. The 30 year old has 2 years left on his contract at about 7 Million a piece. He has just 2 starts and 78 pass attempts in 8 years. Projections The last part is probably the most fruitless but maybe the most enjoyable, trying to figure out who goes where. Just looking at the past year, who could have predicted the success of Dak Prescott or Trevor Simien and the failure of Brock Osweiler and Blake Bortles? What makes it even more foolish is that of the teams that will most likely need QBs the most 3 don’t have Coaches. Still here is a shot taking out the 16 teams that I think are pretty much set. 1. Jets: With Hackenberg and Petty there to develop I think this might be where Jay Cutler lands. They have a coach that needs to win and a vet helps them do that. It doesn’t hurt that Brandon Marshall is there too. 2. Browns: As much as it pains me I am going to put Jimmy Garappalo here. The Only other options I see are the Bears and Niners and I don’t think they will be willing to give up that early of a first. Glennon McCarron 3. Texans: I think the Texans will focus on getting someone who fits their scheme of defense and running. Because of that I go with Tyrod Taylor. 4. Jaguars: With Blake Bortles a question mark I am going to put Brian Hoyer here. I think Hoyer is probably one of the top 32 QBs in the league, certainly at the fringe, and he will take any opportunity. 5. Bears: This is where I have McCarron going, probably for a second. Talent wise I’m not sure they are really far off. They had a RB emerge this year and a WR and their first round WR from a few years back might be available, even if they probably will lose Jeffery. This will be a good team to grow with. McCarron also has a couple years playing in bad weather so that might help the cause. 6. 49ers: The niners have a huge amount of cap space. That might mean they can throw money at Glennon or trade for McCarron and fill other needs outside the draft. I am going to go with Glennon here. I think they will covet those draft picks. 7. Bills: This is where I am going to put Romo here. The team has talent for sure. I think the Texans probably fit better on the field but I worry about the Salary situation there. 8. Dolphins: With the Dolphins in the playoffs I think Tannehill sticks. 9. Chiefs: Alex Smith might not be special but there isn’t a guarantee improvement. 10. Redskins: Kirk Cousins will likely either be franchised again or sign a long term deal. 11. Patriots: As odd as it sounds I think, they think, Jacoby Brissett might be the long term solution in New England. 12. Stealers: Big Ben is just 34 and they added Zach Mettenberger last year, I think that’s what they roll with. 13. Chargers: Philip Rivers is just 35 but the Chargers might want to add a new face of the franchise if they move to LA. I predict status quo. 14. Giants: Eli Manning turned 36 January 3rd. This is where I think one of the rookies might go off the board on the first or 2nd day. 15. Saints: Drew Brees is 38. This is another place where I could see a rookie going, maybe round 2. 16. Cardinals: Palmer is falling off quickly. I am going to put Landry Jones here. I don’t think he is special but I think he could be an ok starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Dub Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 hours ago, MichaelWeston said: 5. Raiders: Derek Carr has been excellent this year but is done for the year with a broken fibula. Pending free agent Matt McGloin will be filling in for Carr to end the season and into the playoffs. 2016 4th round pick Connor Cook rounds out the roster. Cook is likely to start their WC game vs Houston with McGloin nursing a shoulder injury. He's listed as "limited", but I don't see them switching horses midstream if Cook helps them advance to the next round. As for the Texans, like Miami & KC the postseason performance of their QB's could earn them the starting job next season. Great post btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Le Tigre Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Why is it when any other position player sniffs age 30, they are "long in the tooth"...but a constantly injured Benny is "just 34"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Dub Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Le Tigre said: Why is it when any other position player sniffs age 30, they are "long in the tooth"...but a constantly injured Benny is "just 34"? What is dead may never die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Le Tigre Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 We can hope he is mortal, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatternMaster Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Good stuff Weston. I think the Bills are definitely going to move on from Taylor, but that depends on who the next HC will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredtoast Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 -Bortles collapse was crazy. I'll bet the Jags message boards are at war over what to do with him. But he is still on his rookie contract and has shown what he is capable of producing. The Jags may draft a QB in the 3rd round or later, but they have so many other needs I can't see them spending a huge amount of free agent money or high draft picks on the QB position. On the other hand, the team may know what his problems are and feel that they can't be fixed. You just never know. -Romo may think he will get traded to a starting gig, but I don't see it happening unless there is a situation like with the Vikings this year where a playoff team loses their starter for what looks like just one year. -I still think Kaepernick can be salvaged. He may have been a little over rated when he went to the Super Bowl, but he is not total garbage like some claim now. I think he can be a good QB under the right coach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredtoast Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 Also needs to be noted that this is the worst QB draft class I have seen in a long, long time. Desperation and over-valuation of the QB position will drive someone into the first round, but all the teams that really need a QB draft in the top ten. So look for these teams to maybe trade up from early in the second to late in the first, or instead trade a high second round pick for a NFL QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Dub Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, fredtoast said: -Romo may think he will get traded to a starting gig, but I don't see it happening unless there is a situation like with the Vikings this year where a playoff team loses their starter for what looks like just one year. "Next year, Romo has a $24.7 million cap hit and will cost the Cowboys $19.6 million in dead money if he's no longer on the roster, regardless of whether he's cut or traded." http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/jerry-jones-reveals-his-plans-for-tony-romo-for-the-2017-season/ A trade would only save them about $5m, which is less money than Jerry will drop on Instagram hookers & Viagra/blow this offseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredtoast Posted January 5, 2017 Report Share Posted January 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, T-Dub said: "Next year, Romo has a $24.7 million cap hit and will cost the Cowboys $19.6 million in dead money if he's no longer on the roster, regardless of whether he's cut or traded." http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/jerry-jones-reveals-his-plans-for-tony-romo-for-the-2017-season/ A trade would only save them about $5m, which is less money than Jerry will drop on Instagram hookers & Viagra/blow this offseason. But Jerry doesn't have to deal with a "blow cap". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelWeston Posted January 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 14 hours ago, T-Dub said: What is dead may never die Valor Mughalis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelWeston Posted January 6, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 6, 2017 The Tyrod Taylor situation will be absolutely fascinating. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/tyrod-taylor-undergoes-hernia-surgery-says-its-not-about-27-5m-injury-guarantee/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelWeston Posted January 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 Doug Marrone to the Jags likely means Bortles gets another full look at the position in 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredtoast Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, MichaelWeston said: Doug Marrone to the Jags likely means Bortles gets another full look at the position in 2017. Bortles is just one year removed from a 35 td, 4500 yd, 88 passer rating season. His salary next year will be just $3.2 million, and it is the last year of his contract. Unless the Jags know he has killed someone or raped a bunch of kids they are going to bring him back next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatternMaster Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 1 hour ago, fredtoast said: Bortles is just one year removed from a 35 td, 4500 yd, 88 passer rating season. His salary next year will be just $3.2 million, and it is the last year of his contract. Unless the Jags know he has killed someone or raped a bunch of kids they are going to bring him back next year. Well he does look like Big Ben, so let's just wait and see.... Seriously the Jags do have talent and Bortles has the athletic skill set to be a successful NFL, not sure why he regressed as much as he did this year but he was awful..a turnover machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelWeston Posted January 10, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 2 hours ago, fredtoast said: Bortles is just one year removed from a 35 td, 4500 yd, 88 passer rating season. His salary next year will be just $3.2 million, and it is the last year of his contract. Unless the Jags know he has killed someone or raped a bunch of kids they are going to bring him back next year. After Gus Bradley was fired the owner was quoted as saying that the new coach did not have to start Bortles. This had less to do with whether or not he would be back and more about whether or not he would be the unquestioned starter or if he would look elsewhere. His mechanics were awful this year. Full of aw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fredtoast Posted January 10, 2017 Report Share Posted January 10, 2017 I am not denying that Bortles sucked this year. But he is not some unproven guy with no track record. He was a decent starting QB in '15. I'd rather take my chances with a guy who ha shown that he can do it than a guy who has never done it. I also think Kaepernick can be salvaged if he gets his head straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelWeston Posted January 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2017 Phillip Rivers has said he won't go to LA so that changes some things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
|Montana Bengal| Posted January 17, 2017 Report Share Posted January 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, MichaelWeston said: Phillip Rivers has said he won't go to LA so that changes some things. Latest is that he is going to LA and hesitation was about leaving SD where he has brought up his kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelWeston Posted January 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, Montana Bengal said: Latest is that he is going to LA and hesitation was about leaving SD where he has brought up his kids. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Le Tigre Posted January 17, 2017 Report Share Posted January 17, 2017 8 hours ago, Montana Bengal said: Latest is that he is going to LA and hesitation was about leaving SD where he has brought up his kids. It is a 2 1/2 hour drive from SD to LA. Even with traffic, that is a daily commute. Phillip just being dramatic Phillip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelWeston Posted January 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Saw a tweet with Taylor to Browns. Shanahan is new Niners coach. Might be looking at Cousins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatternMaster Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 26 minutes ago, MichaelWeston said: Saw a tweet with Taylor to Browns. Shanahan is new Niners coach. Might be looking at Cousins. The Browns said they are interested, he's not going there for sure. Nobody knows what the Browns are going to do, not even the Brown's FO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpoore Posted January 19, 2017 Report Share Posted January 19, 2017 Saw a tweet with Taylor to Browns. Shanahan is new Niners coach. Might be looking at Cousins. The Browns said they are interested, he's not going there for sure. Nobody knows what the Browns are going to do, not even the Brown's FO. I think Bills/49ers make most sense to be honest. But doubt they take Taylor. They already have a dual threat in rgiii. Sent from my 2PYB2 using Go-Bengals.com mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelWeston Posted March 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2017 Looking like Hoyer-Niners Glennon-Bears Romo-Texans or Broncos Taylor-Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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