Top 25 Breakout "Prospects" for 2017

[USN Bengal]

From ESPN Insiders article, http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/20210765/nfl-top-25-breakout-prospect-rankings-2017-season,

 

Every year, Football Outsiders puts together a list of the NFL's best and brightest young players who have barely played. Eighty percent of the draft-day discussion is about first-round picks, and 10 percent is about the players that should have been first-round picks, but instead went in the second round. This list is about the others.

 

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8. Andrew Billings, DT, Cincinnati Bengals

Age: 21 | 0 defensive snaps | Fourth-round pick (2016)

After missing 2016 with a knee injury, Billings heads into training camp as the presumed starting nose tackle for the Bengals. He was a hell of a prospect, with elite strength and nimble feet at Baylor, where he was the co-Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year at 20 years old. He racked up 26.5 tackles for loss in his last two years of college.

The question with Billings remains: Is he a nose tackle, or is he more? Nose tackles don't have a ton of value in today's NFL, and the reason he slipped to the fourth round is because scouts looked at his body and saw a two-down player. The upside for Billings' skill set is to become Star Lotulelei, with the speed and power to win in any gap and be a factor on pass-rushing downs.

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9. Nick Vigil, LB, Cincinnati Bengals

Age: 24 | 111 defensive snaps | Third-round pick (2016)

Another of the Bengal Babies who are getting their first real chance this year, Vigil tested out highly at the combine as a line-of-scrimmage defender. Vigil's short shuttle and three-cone drill times were both in the top 10 percent of all inside linebackers over the past 18 years. His NFL.com draft profile includes this in weaknesses: "Instincts make him seem more athletic and fast than he might actually be." Sign us up for that weakness.

The question with Vigil will be the muscle he's able to add to his frame, and what it does to his speed. He was a mere 230 pounds at the combine. A best-case athletic scenario might be something like Kiko Alonso with the Bills before the injuries wrecked his career. After a successful cup of coffee in 2016, Vigil was dubbed "much better" by defensive coordinator Paul Guenther in organized team activities, and should be in line for a big role in 2017.

 

 

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25. AJ McCarron, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Age: 26 | 259 offensive snaps | Fourth-round pick (2014)

McCarron didn't exactly set the world on fire in his small sample with the Bengals, but adequate quarterbacking is worth something. McCarron's statistics, including a 6.9 percent DVOA on 132 dropbacks, were heavily influenced by a great supporting cast. Whenever McCarron gets his chance, you can expect some adequate game-manager type play. Nothing inspiring or worthy of a thinkpiece, but every era needs its Jon Kitna.

McCarron is in a bit of an interesting dispute with the Bengals, who don't want his 2014 season to count as an accrued year for the purposes of free agency. Assuming this is just wishful thinking, McCarron may find himself as the next winner of the Brock Osweiler/Mike Glennon Enormous Contract Award. The only real problem with that idea is that those guys had big arms, and McCarron has never had that.

 

 

 

Honorable mention

G Christian Westerman, Cincinnati Bengals

[omgdrdoom]

I've loved the Billings pick since it happened. I can't wait to see him on the field.

 

I don't get the love for Vigil though, I don't see him as anything special. Hope I'm wrong on that one.

[Jamie_B]

I'm ready to see what we have in some of these 2nd year guys who didnt get to play much last year as well, to include WJ3.

[fluhartz]

Billings and WJ3 are at the top of my can't wait to see list too. 

So pumped for the season to start. 

[omgdrdoom]

Fuck Insider, so I can't see the bottom of the page to see their exact criteria, but I do know being a 1st rounder makes you ineligible. WJIII would definitely be above a lot of these guys if he could be on there. I can see our corners being CB1 Dre, CB2 WJIII, SCB Jones by the end of the year.

 

There are a ton of talented Bengals that could be late round sleepers this year (Willis, Lawson, Malone, Glasgow, Elliott all hyped players) but who knows how many of them will see time due to the guys ahead of them and the scheme. I could easily see Willis or Lawson being a bigger impact player than Vigil.

 

As far as the 2016 draft goes, WJIII and Boyd are early round picks, already touched on Vigil and Billings, Westerman will be a backup, Core won't see the field barring injury, and Fej won't see the field (on defense) unless Shawn Williams specifically is injured. Fejedelem is an excellent ST player and the coaches rave about his ST ability but that's part of the game that gets heavily overlooked.

[USN Bengal]

38 minutes ago, omgdrdoom said:

Fuck Insider, so I can't see the bottom of the page to see their exact criteria, but I do know being a 1st rounder makes you ineligible. WJIII would definitely be above a lot of these guys if he could be on there. I can see our corners being CB1 Dre, CB2 WJIII, SCB Jones by the end of the year.

 

There are a ton of talented Bengals that could be late round sleepers this year (Willis, Lawson, Malone, Glasgow, Elliott all hyped players) but who knows how many of them will see time due to the guys ahead of them and the scheme. I could easily see Willis or Lawson being a bigger impact player than Vigil.

 

As far as the 2016 draft goes, WJIII and Boyd are early round picks, already touched on Vigil and Billings, Westerman will be a backup, Core won't see the field barring injury, and Fej won't see the field (on defense) unless Shawn Williams specifically is injured. Fejedelem is an excellent ST player and the coaches rave about his ST ability but that's part of the game that gets heavily overlooked.

Here is their criteria Doom;

 

Here's our full criteria:

 

• Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent

• Entered the NFL between 2014 and 2016

• Fewer than 500 career offensive or defensive snaps

• Have not signed a contract extension (players who have bounced around the league looking for the right spot, however, still qualify for the list)

• Age 26 or younger in 2017

You'll see a number of references to Football Outsiders stats on our list, in particular DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which takes every play and compares its success to the NFL average based on situation and opponent, and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), which gives total value by comparing efficiency on each play to a replacement-level player. You can read more about those and other FO stats on this page. Many of the other stats come from Sports Info Solutions and can be found in our new book, Football Outsiders Almanac 2017.

[omgdrdoom]

^ thanks. So it's not even including guys who are rookies this year, pretty interesting topic!

 

Wow, Will Clarke is <70 snaps from being eligible. I'd have put him in the top 10 around the league in that case, I feel like he's going to have a nice season in 2017.

 

Pretty much all of our guys are penciled in to be backups or low snap count situational players so I guess it makes sense for them to have Billings and Vigil up there going by the criteria.

[fredtoast]

3 hours ago, omgdrdoom said:

^

 

Wow, Will Clarke is <70 snaps from being eligible. I'd have put him in the top 10 around the league in that case, I feel like he's going to have a nice season in 2017.

Clark had a better "snaps per sack" ratio than Dunlap last year.

Clarke.............93.0
Dunlap..........105.0
 

[fredtoast]

4 hours ago, omgdrdoom said:

 WJIII would definitely be above a lot of these guys if he could be on there. I can see our corners being CB1 Dre, CB2 WJIII, SCB Jones by the end of the year.

 

This

[UncleEarl]

3 hours ago, omgdrdoom said:

^ thanks. So it's not even including guys who are rookies this year, pretty interesting topic!

 

Wow, Will Clarke is <70 snaps from being eligible. I'd have put him in the top 10 around the league in that case, I feel like he's going to have a nice season in 2017.

 

Pretty much all of our guys are penciled in to be backups or low snap count situational players so I guess it makes sense for them to have Billings and Vigil up there going by the criteria.

I would like to see more of Will Clarke, but I will be surprised if he gets much more time.  I don't see Lewis taking much time away from Johnson.  ML loves his vets.

[fredtoast]

13 hours ago, UncleEarl said:

I would like to see more of Will Clarke, but I will be surprised if he gets much more time.  I don't see Lewis taking much time away from Johnson.  ML loves his vets.

Clarke is now a veteran.

 

Remember when Geathers "started" because he was better against the run, but Dunlap actually played more snaps?

 

I did not mean to imply that Clarke will take many snaps away from Dunlap.  Carlos is BY FAR our best DE (nothing like Geathers late in his career), but I do think they will find a way to get more snaps for Clarke.

 

 

[omgdrdoom]

13 hours ago, UncleEarl said:

I would like to see more of Will Clarke, but I will be surprised if he gets much more time.  I don't see Lewis taking much time away from Johnson.  ML loves his vets.

 

5 minutes ago, fredtoast said:

Clarke is now a veteran.

 

Remember when Geathers "started" because he was better against the run, but Dunlap actually played more snaps?

 

I did not mean to imply that Clarke will take many snaps away from Dunlap.  Carlos is BY FAR our best DE (nothing like Geathers late in his career), but I do think they will find a way to get more snaps for Clarke.

 

 

Our roster is interesting right now. On one hand, Hunt is gone, but on the other, I think the plan for our 2 rookies is to get them on the field this year.

 

I know Lawson doesn't need his hand in the dirt, but Willis is more of a true DE and I believe that's the way Guenther plans to utilize him while Lawson will be more of the hybrid that Marvin dreams about year in and year out. He may have finally found a good one (I hope at least).

 

As Freddy said, Dunlap is easily our best DE. He played around 75% of the snaps last year which is down compared to his 80%+ from the 2 years prior. I think Johnson's snap counts should diminish somewhat this year. Gilberry has to make the roster, right? He's a proven vet, but maybe I'm totally wrong and he is a "surprise" cut. I suppose some folks wouldn't be surprised but I've always liked Gilberry's ability on the field.

 

So here's the questions gents. Who plays more LDE and who subs in on the right? As of right now, MJ, Willis, Clarke, and Gilberry are ALL penciled in at RDE with the only guys behind Carlos being people that aren't making the roster. Didn't they try Clarke at LDE but he seemed more natural at RDE in the long run? My memory isn't the best so please correct me if I'm wrong there and someone remembers this more clearly.

 

I hate to sound like a homer especially since we lacked the sack numbers last year, but it's going to be tough to get all of our talent on the field with the snap counts they deserve.

 

LDE - Dunlap/Clarke

RDE - Johnson/Willis/Gilberry(?)

NT - Sims/Billings

3T - Geno/???

LB - V Rey, Minter, Burfict, Lawson, Vigil, ???

[fredtoast]

2 hours ago, omgdrdoom said:

 

 Gilberry has to make the roster, right? He's a proven vet, but maybe I'm totally wrong and he is a "surprise" cut. I suppose some folks wouldn't be surprised but I've always liked Gilberry's ability on the field.

 

So here's the questions gents. Who plays more LDE and who subs in on the right? As of right now, MJ, Willis, Clarke, and Gilberry are ALL penciled in at RDE with the only guys behind Carlos being people that aren't making the roster. Didn't they try Clarke at LDE but he seemed more natural at RDE in the long run? My memory isn't the best so please correct me if I'm wrong there and someone remembers this more clearly.

 

There was actually some talk of grooming Hardison for the DT/DE hybrid position that Gilberry (and sometimes Hunt) filled.  But that never made a lot of sense to me.  I felt Hardison needed to get bigger and stronger and concentrate 100% on DT.  He just does not look anything like a DE to me.

[Hooky]

On 8/3/2017 at 10:16 AM, omgdrdoom said:

I've loved the Billings pick since it happened. I can't wait to see him on the field.

 

I don't get the love for Vigil though, I don't see him as anything special. Hope I'm wrong on that one.

Agree on both counts. I also really liked the Westerman pick. I've been disappointed to not hear any talk about him at camp yet. Especially since all I've heard about Guard is that Smith was moved out and Hopkins was in. Not that I have anything against him. Just been hoping to hear some Westerman talk.