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First thought on #94


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What was your first thought when #94 Chris Smith was put into the game and nearly killed the QB the first play? My first words out my mouth was, "who the fuck was that?" I had forgotten all about adding him in the off-season. I guess Andrew Whitworth had said he was one of the toughest pass rushers he went up against. Michael Johnson's job could be in jeopardy if he continues to show this.

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9 hours ago, T-Dub said:

MJ is starting to look like the odd man out, isn't he?  It's one preseason game, though.  Can any of these new DE's play the run?

That's the big question.  I think they are trying real hard to find another pass rusher.  MJ may end up a situational player this year.

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1 hour ago, UncleEarl said:

That's the big question.  I think they are trying real hard to find another pass rusher.  MJ may end up a situational player this year.

It certainly would not suck to have real depth at DE. Obvious passing downs with 3 legit edge rushers?  Yikes.

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Remember how upset so many people were in 2012 when Geathers was still staring in front of Dunlap?

 

Do you also remember how Dunlap played about the same number of snaps as Geathers and we ended up with the #6 defense in the league?

 

MJ is not getting released.

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28 minutes ago, fredtoast said:

Remember how upset so many people were in 2012 when Geathers was still staring in front of Dunlap?

 

Do you also remember how Dunlap played about the same number of snaps as Geathers and we ended up with the #6 defense in the league?

 

MJ is not getting released.

We have had this talk about 15x this off-season, there is no point in releasing him we save like $460K in cap room cutting him. Only reason to cut would be if we had an insane about of DE talent and letting him go instead of one of our talented DE's. Now I'd lose my shit if we cut Smith instead of MJ, but that's the only reason to cut him.

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1 hour ago, fredtoast said:

So is everyone digging those old Peko jerseys out of the back of the closet?

 

Not that an August depth chart means a whole lot, but he is currently listed as the Broncos starting NT.

 

Playing that spot in a 4-3 is a thankless job.  

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3 hours ago, T-Dub said:

 

Not that an August depth chart means a whole lot, but he is currently listed as the Broncos starting NT.

 

And the Broncos are paying him more than we did last year.  He was another player that fans hated for no real reason.  I guess some people think that the only stat that matters for D-linemen is sacks.  The funny thing is that these guys can play 700+ snaps a year and the difference between the sack leaders and the average players is about 10.

 

I just brought up Peko because he wore #94.

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1 hour ago, fredtoast said:

And the Broncos are paying him more than we did last year.  He was another player that fans hated for no real reason.  I guess some people think that the only stat that matters for D-linemen is sacks.  The funny thing is that these guys can play 700+ snaps a year and the difference between the sack leaders and the average players is about 10.

 

I just brought up Peko because he wore #94.

And so that you could say that.

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Granted he wore down last season, but what kills me is how people acted like he'd always been shit.  5 sacks in 2015 & IIRC top 5 in tackles at his position most years.  Those are bad ass numbers for a NT.  Always had those TFL's and batted passes, IDK. Again I think it's the position, it's never going to jump off the page stats-wise. You simply don't have a top-tier run defense year after year with a shitty NT.  Maybe if Sims & all the other fan favorites could actually play an entire series Peko wouldn't have been gassed so often himself?  I think people forget how much it's a game of attrition.  It's like when we'd put in whatever flavor of the month scat back in the 4th quarter and they score an 80-yard TD because the defense is tired of tackling.  "OMG we should be starting DeDe Dorsey!" or whoever.  Somebody ask Geno Atkins how shitty Peko was.

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Watched the game a lot.  He & Willis could really give Dunlap a boost.  Throw in Lawson at backer & I'm starting to get excited.  Unless there's an injury, I'd think they take 3 of 4 spots at end.  Their ability to get to the passer means they can probably hang onto Johnson & his run abilities if the wish (guess it depends on how much they like Clarke (can Clarke work as a Swing guy?).  I'd say the only way Gilberry makes the final cut is if they keep nine guys and he's the inside/outside swing man over Hardison.  I think Geno & Billings are locks, which leaves two slots.  I think at least one of the Rookies (Tupou & Glasgow) make it, but do you trust them enough to keep both, leaving Geno with three first years or do you keep one paired with one of Sims, Thompson & Simmons?  Interesting 2 or 3 weeks coming up in the trenches.

 

If all are healthy, My WAG:

 

NG Billings/Sims

DT Atkins/Glasgow

LE Dunlap/Willis

RE Johnson/Smith

Last Spot/Swing: Clarke (or) Gilberry

Practice Squad: Tupou

 

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Preseason is the time of overreaction.  I'd love for Chris Smith to blow up and become a star for us, but this is his fourth year in the league.  It seems like he would have shown some signs of being a star by now.

 

Funny how the same people can claim Antwan Odom was a bum because he got some of his five sacks in a regular season game against a backup, then turn around and call Smith a stud because he makes a couple of good plays against back ups in a pre-season game.

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1 hour ago, fredtoast said:

Preseason is the time of overreaction.  I'd love for Chris Smith to blow up and become a star for us, but this is his fourth year in the league.  It seems like he would have shown some signs of being a star by now.

 

Funny how the same people can claim Antwan Odom was a bum because he got some of his five sacks in a regular season game against a backup, then turn around and call Smith a stud because he makes a couple of good plays against back ups in a pre-season game.

Regarding Smith and his years in Jacksonville, he was their version of the DE-to-OLB position change bust that we Bengals fans love to moan about.  The theory is he will perform better if the team just leaves him at DE and lets him go chase the QB.  Of course, I'm sure Cardinal fans also subscribed to that theory when Arizona picked up perennial pre-season all-pro Dontay Moch off waivers a few years back.

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4 hours ago, Steve4192 said:

Regarding Smith and his years in Jacksonville, he was their version of the DE-to-OLB position change bust that we Bengals fans love to moan about.  The theory is he will perform better if the team just leaves him at DE and lets him go chase the QB.  Of course, I'm sure Cardinal fans also subscribed to that theory when Arizona picked up perennial pre-season all-pro Dontay Moch off waivers a few years back.

Yeah, kinda like when Tampa Bay signed Michael Johnson. 

 

It's pretty clear the Bengals are looking for an edge rusher to add to the mix.  Maybe it's Smith, maybe it's Willis, or maybe it's Lawson.  I would be pretty surprised if one of those three isn't getting passing down snaps at RDE this season.

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Preseason is the time of overreaction.  I'd love for Chris Smith to blow up and become a star for us, but this is his fourth year in the league.  It seems like he would have shown some signs of being a star by now.
 
Funny how the same people can claim Antwan Odom was a bum because he got some of his five sacks in a regular season game against a backup, then turn around and call Smith a stud because he makes a couple of good plays against back ups in a pre-season game.



what I liked about his play was the hustle. The guy was going all out every play. Doesn't mean he will make the team or be an all pro but it was refreshing to see.
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I believe either MJ or Clarke will make the 53 man roster, but not both.  MJ is clearly on the downside of his career and even if he stays there is no way he sees 80-90% of the snaps again.  As for Clarke, he is entering a walk year and I just don't see much of a future for him.  He makes a play here or there and disappears for stretches.  

 

Smith has buzz around him right now and I don't believe they gave up a pick to trade for him only to cut him right away.  I'll be surprised if he doesn't make it.  Combined with the rookies, the Bengals will have more speed and athleticism on the edge than any time in recent memory.  I think it's an evolution that's long overdue.

 

 

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The reality is that MJ93 hasn't been great for a while. He's a good run stopper? So what. You have to be able to play the run, but teams are hardly giving out $5M per year to guys who are great run stoppers. He's the blindside rusher. He's supposed to get after the QB.

The Bengals went into the offseason looking to upgrade the pass rush. Do you think that means replacing Geno or Dunlap? Or that they're looking for more pressure from their NT? Unless you think that their talk of upgrading the pass rush meant moving on from Peko, Johnson is the guy they're talking about.

Yes, you can't have pro-bowlers at every position, but there's also a reason that left tackles are so important to a football team. There's a reason that RDE is the second highest paid position on the defense behind CB.

Your RDE, even on the plays he isn't getting pressure, should have the opposing QB looking over his shoulder.

Since Gunther has been less blitz happy than Zim, we've been running a lot of cover2/cover4 concepts - which rely on edge pressure.


https://www.cincyjungle.com/2017/8/16/16144356/time-bengals-move-on-michael-johnson

Two plays on video in that article... Even ignoring the fact that he was totally ineffective - look at how slow he is even getting to the tackle. Pat Simms has a quicker first step on those plays. Hopefully this game was an outlier, but I'm concerned what it says about the guy if he mailed in the first game because he thought his roster spot was secure. In years past, he's been a better option than Hunt or Clarke, but with Smith and Willis looking hungry and quick, his days may be numbered.

Because a right handed quarterback normally cannot see pressure coming from the right defensive side, defenses emphasize pass rush from the right side. Offenses put special significance on protecting a quarterback’s blindside. Therefore, defenses typically put their best pass rusher at right defensive end. That player may not lead the team in sacks, but he usually possesses the best “first step” and provides the fastest arriving “pressure”. For most right defensive ends, run stopping and gap control are considered secondary skills of lesser importance than creating pressure and sacking the quarterback. Rushing the quarterback is the primary and most common assignment for a right defensive end.

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2008/5/28/541208/football-explained-right-d

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54 minutes ago, LostInDaJungle said:

The reality is that MJ93 hasn't been great for a while. He's a good run stopper? So what. You have to be able to play the run, but teams are hardly giving out $5M per year to guys who are great run stoppers. He's the blindside rusher. He's supposed to get after the QB.
 

Let me preface this by agreeing that he did not look good against the Bucs.  But I have seen plenty of fan favorite players have a bad preseason game or two over the years and no one even mentions it.  The people who are freaking out over his performance last weekend are the people who were convinced that he already sucked.  But the fact is that Johnson was a very productive DE for us last year.

 

Don't start squealing about how I think MJ is a big star.  That is not true, and I would be happy to see one of these young guys blow up and be a big star for us.  But we are not going to be able to replace MJ with just anybody.  You act like he was invisible on passing downs but among DEs he was 15th in QB hurries and 14th in tipped passes.  And you can poo-poo his play against the run all you want, but it makes a big difference having a DE who was 10th in stuffs, 12th in solo tackles, and 19th in total tackles.

 

So my take is that if MJ continues to look washed up in preseason and one of the young guys looks like he can step in immediately and be among the top 20 most productive DEs in the league then I have no problem cutting MJ.  But I am withholding my judgement because I did not come into this with the notion that MJ was garbage last year.

 

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2 hours ago, fredtoast said:

Let me preface this by agreeing that he did not look good against the Bucs.  But I have seen plenty of fan favorite players have a bad preseason game or two over the years and no one even mentions it.  The people who are freaking out over his performance last weekend are the people who were convinced that he already sucked.  But the fact is that Johnson was a very productive DE for us last year.

 

Don't start squealing about how I think MJ is a big star.  That is not true, and I would be happy to see one of these young guys blow up and be a big star for us.  But we are not going to be able to replace MJ with just anybody.  You act like he was invisible on passing downs but among DEs he was 15th in QB hurries and 14th in tipped passes.  And you can poo-poo his play against the run all you want, but it makes a big difference having a DE who was 10th in stuffs, 12th in solo tackles, and 19th in total tackles.

 

So my take is that if MJ continues to look washed up in preseason and one of the young guys looks like he can step in immediately and be among the top 20 most productive DEs in the league then I have no problem cutting MJ.  But I am withholding my judgement because I did not come into this with the notion that MJ was garbage last year.

 

Those cumulative stats looks great in isolation, but I bet they look a whole lot less favorable when you include where he ranked in snaps.  If he finished in the top 10 in snaps yet only ranked among the top 20 DEs in terms of production, that is a problem.

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2 hours ago, Steve4192 said:

Those cumulative stats looks great in isolation, but I bet they look a whole lot less favorable when you include where he ranked in snaps.  If he finished in the top 10 in snaps yet only ranked among the top 20 DEs in terms of production, that is a problem.

Ding, ding, ding, ding!!!

 

QB pressures is a subjective stat to begin with and when you don't bother to adjust for # of opportunities it's even more of a garbage statistic.

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On 8/17/2017 at 1:05 PM, ccartman2 said:

 

 


what I liked about his play was the hustle. The guy was going all out every play. Doesn't mean he will make the team or be an all pro but it was refreshing to see.

 

 

 

Isn't it funny how much that stands out, even among guys fighting for a job worth millions?  You'd think it'd be the norm rather than exceptional.

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4 hours ago, Steve4192 said:

Those cumulative stats looks great in isolation, but I bet they look a whole lot less favorable when you include where he ranked in snaps.  If he finished in the top 10 in snaps yet only ranked among the top 20 DEs in terms of production, that is a problem.

He was 11th in snaps played which is exactly in line with his rankings between 10th and 15th in stuffs, solo tackles, tipped passes and QB hurries.

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