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Death of the NFL


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This guy is totally full of shit.

 

Youth participation numbers are down, but just slightly.  I don't know what happened in this one city he is discussing, but that is not happening everywhere else.

 

Just some anecdotal evidence in the hands of an over-the-to fear monger.

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Yea, I didn't read the article but I agree what Fred's saying. People disregard danger warnings on things all the time. They don't think it will happen to them or whatever reason. Look at all the millions of people that continue to smoke and they're not getting paid millions to do it.

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Litigation, TV ratings, sales, and bottom lines are the driving forces behind the "efforts" the league has been doing in reducing this once-great sport into a circus side-show. It will get worse before it gets better. 

 

But, with respects to the CTE issues, the league is mostly fearful of continuing litigation. They have been dead to rights grossly negligent over the decades in the realm of player safety--according to even older laws and regulations. It doesn't eliminate the assumed risk by players, but they do factor heavily in the ways courts will adjudicate cases in the future. The league wants to avoid that with all means necessary. 

 

The ironic thing is that, while they dance the "Player Safety" dance...they still attempt to play up the facade of "hard-hitting football". They know that, for all intents and purposes, the gladiatorial nature of this sport is what appeals to the Bread-and-Circus population. Take away all of it, lose most of the followers. 

 

It is a wobbly tightrope, and one they are steadily falling from.      

  

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I've said for a year now that the NFL (or even Power 5 College Football) won't die of quickly, but will be undermined/eroded from below. Soccer is already becoming more & more popular.  It will continue to grow as more and more parents steer their kids to it and lower-impact sports like baseball & basketball [I know there are head injury concerns with Soccer, but most can be remedied with restricting the heading of the ball & other precautions - much more easily than football].  Football is already an expensive sport to equip and maintain for youth leagues, jr highs and high schools.  As it becomes less popular with kids & parents, brain injury cases mount & liabilities/insurance rise, more and more will drop programs and the trend will seep into smaller & even mid-size colleges.  Too much money in NFL &  big time college programs to fold overnight, but I do expect to see their popularity wane somewhat.

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A few points from a dad who has a sophomore playing JV and some Varsity football at a decent sized division 2 high school:

 

1. I was always told and it has rung true that most kids that play midget football don't end up playing high school football and a lot of studies have shown that starting kids off that early in their brain development in football isn't good anyways.

2. Kids going out for sports overall is down. From my experience when I played baseball(I graduated in 1992 from the same school my boys go to) we had to cut 10+ players in middle and high school before the season started. On my sons freshman and sophomore baseball teams they had 12 players total even go out for baseball. Kids these days overall play too many video games, are on their phones or computers too much, and are addicted to YouTube.... they don't want to be bothered with sports and other physical things. 

3. I will agree that to a certain extent that worry about brain and other injuries is a reason that there has been some decline in participation in football, but it's not the only reason for the decline. Trying to relate a decline in the NFL to a midget football decline is pretty far fetched considering the low percentage of midget football players who ever end up playing in the NFL.

4. I think a bigger reason for a possible decline in the NFL will be outrageous ticket prices, prices for food in the stadium and the ever growing price of team gear. They are pricing the middle class family out of the game. On top of that, football use to be a 3 days a week treat with college football on Saturday and NFL on Sunday and Monday. I would argue that there is too much football on TV now. Just about any night you can turn on the TV and find a game.... it too diluted which drives down ratings.

 

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Couple of other things:

 

1. Newer sport of Lacrosse is growing very rapidly and is drawing players from both football and soccer because of reason #2. 

 

2. Sports specialization is reducing the number of kids for EVERY sport.  I know kids who are college baseball prospects who always played football or soccer, now they don't take the risk.   Lacrosse, Baseball, Basketball  and soccer are year round sports now so most don't play football as well.   Football is a year round training sport in the weight room. My oldest son played football and lacrosse until he decided only on Lax around high school.  Some of my lax players decided on football only (in the weight room almost everyday) 

 

3. Yeah, some parents are afraid of the concussion and the CTE things they are hearing.  It shouldn't be a surprise but I doubt it is more than a couple of kids per school.

 

 

 

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I don't understand the whole fucking deal. These players get paid and paid pretty dearly in most cases. They know the risks. I'm not seeing cops seeking lawsuits for injuries or wounds they sustain on the job. What's next? Nascar drivers suing for concussions they receive from banging there heads off the steering wheel? Not to sound insesitive but geesh!!

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I don't understand the whole fucking deal. These players get paid and paid pretty dearly in most cases. They know the risks. I'm not seeing cops seeking lawsuits for injuries or wounds they sustain on the job. What's next? Nascar drivers suing for concussions they receive from banging there heads off the steering wheel? Not to sound insesitive but geesh!!


That's the rub. They DIDN'T know the risks until about 5 years ago. They know now. The incoming pipeline knows the risks, and more importantly their parents do as well.

Argue all you wish that this isn't affecting the game from a pipeline standpoint, but you can't argue the NFL isn't changing the game as a result. As I stated earlier, the NFL AS WE KNOW IT IS DEAD. The game will be completely different within a decade. As others have stated, a multi billion dollar industry isn't going to fold overnight, but GM didn't fail overnight either...
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6 minutes ago, Elflocko said:

 


That's the rub. They DIDN'T know the risks until about 5 years ago. They know now. The incoming pipeline knows the risks, and more importantly their parents do as well.

Argue all you wish that this isn't affecting the game from a pipeline standpoint, but you can't argue the NFL isn't changing the game as a result. As I stated earlier, the NFL AS WE KNOW IT IS DEAD. The game will be completely different within a decade. As others have stated, a multi billion dollar industry isn't going to fold overnight, but GM didn't fail overnight either...

 

I honestly don't know how they couldn't have known the risks. I remember the warnings decades ago about what the dangers of bouncing a soccer ball off your head could do to your brain.

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1 hour ago, Elflocko said:

 

As I stated earlier, the NFL AS WE KNOW IT IS DEAD. The game will be completely different within a decade.

 

It will not be markedly different a decade from now.

 

NFL players have seen the effects on old time NFL players for 30 years now.  None of this is big news.  They may reduce some of the head shots, but it will still be an very violent game.

 

Soccor will probably grow in popularity, but football and the NFL are not going away.

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1 hour ago, schotzee said:

I honestly don't know how they couldn't have known the risks. I remember the warnings decades ago about what the dangers of bouncing a soccer ball off your head could do to your brain.

Well, I played soccer all my life and there is almost zero evidence to show heading a soccer ball does anywhere near the damage helmet to helmet football contact does.  A soccer ball weighs 15 ounces, is flexible and in most cases isn't going that fast when you head it.  A solid football helmet filled with the head of a 195 lb linebacker (talking high school here) has a staggeringly larger amount of force behind it.  Also, you don't really head the ball that much in a game.  A running back, O and D lineman and LBs are hitting shit all game. 

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1 hour ago, SF2 said:

A solid football helmet

 

I read something a few years ago suggesting a soft-shell helmet.  It still had the same padding inside & a shell layer but had a thick, soft exterior.  They said it absorbed much more force from a collision and would also make the helmet less useful as a weapon.  It looked kind of weird but so did modern helmets compared to the old leather caps.  In a couple of years nobody would care.  This would actually cost money however, much easier to suspend a couple of guys.

 

https://www.inc.com/kevin-j-ryan/nfl-players-wear-soft-vicis-helmets-in-game.html

 

A little more complicated than I remember but that's the model

 

 

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6 minutes ago, SF2 said:

Well, I played soccer all my life and there is almost zero evidence to show heading a soccer ball does anywhere near the damage helmet to helmet football contact does.  A soccer ball weighs 15 ounces, is flexible and in most cases isn't going that fast when you head it.  A solid football helmet filled with the head of a 195 lb linebacker (talking high school here) has a staggeringly larger amount of force behind it.  Also, you don't really head the ball that much in a game.  A running back, O and D lineman and LBs are hitting shit all game. 

Exactly. I wasn't comparing it as just as bad, but I remember the warnings about doing it. That's why i didn't understand how NFL players couldn't know the risks of knocks to the brain especially since they're knocking way harder.

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12 minutes ago, schotzee said:

Exactly. I wasn't comparing it as just as bad, but I remember the warnings about doing it. That's why i didn't understand how NFL players couldn't know the risks of knocks to the brain especially since they're knocking way harder.

 

If they don't act like repeatedly bashing your head into things being bad for you is some startling medical breakthrough that could potentially make them liable for a much larger time frame.  No way can they admit to prior knowledge when they just started addressing it over the last few years.

 

The rule changes, the fines & suspensions - this is all about avoiding a lawsuit. Nothing else. 

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4. I think a bigger reason for a possible decline in the NFL will be outrageous ticket prices, prices for food in the stadium and the ever growing price of team gear. They are pricing the middle class family out of the game. On top of that, football use to be a 3 days a week treat with college football on Saturday and NFL on Sunday and Monday. I would argue that there is too much football on TV now. Just about any night you can turn on the TV and find a game.... it too diluted which drives down ratings.
 


This is a big factor but they'd still make money if no one showed up due to tv dollars right. But when they start losing gate revenue they will want more tv revenue causing more commercials. I hate prime time games because of all of them already.

This is a big reason why NASCAR is struggling. They priced out their core fans and when the fans stopped going they've stopped watching too. Then they keep putting watered down inferior product out for the consumer. The NFL is doing the same but it has a lot larger base so the decline will take longer to notice.
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7 minutes ago, ccartman2 said:

 


This is a big factor but they'd still make money if no one showed up due to tv dollars right. 

 

 

For now, maybe.  When the current deals expire in 5 years, who knows.  Still, empty stadiums would be a tremendous blow to their bottom line.  That's losing fans, not just ticket sales. 

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4 hours ago, Elflocko said:

 


That's the rub. They DIDN'T know the risks until about 5 years ago. They know now. The incoming pipeline knows the risks, and more importantly their parents do as well.

Argue all you wish that this isn't affecting the game from a pipeline standpoint, but you can't argue the NFL isn't changing the game as a result. As I stated earlier, the NFL AS WE KNOW IT IS DEAD. The game will be completely different within a decade. As others have stated, a multi billion dollar industry isn't going to fold overnight, but GM didn't fail overnight either...

They may not have known the risks until about five years ago, but NFL retirees have been dying in their fifties and early sixties at a higher rate than the avgerage American for some time.

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6 minutes ago, snarkster said:

They may not have known the risks until about five years ago, but NFL retirees have been dying in their fifties and early sixties at a higher rate than the avgerage American for some time.

Come on man, reread what you wrote. I live in an area of northeastern  Pa.  Many more have died of cancer in multitudes at younger ages.

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11 minutes ago, snarkster said:

They may not have known the risks until about five years ago, but NFL retirees have been dying in their fifties and early sixties at a higher rate than the avgerage American for some time.

Respectfully though, do you have any kind of source to back that statement? It just doesn't seem mathematically possible.

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