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Halftime Adjustment HORROR. Why Marvin must go


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So SAP asked an interesting question in another thread about how this team has done offensively under Marvin in the first vs second halves of games.  I decided to check this out but only for this year.   The results confirm what SAP and I suspected, Marvin and his coaching staff are utterly incompetent game managers.

 

The Bengals have scored 238 points this season. Here is how they break down:

 

The Bengals have scored 167 first half points this year.

The Bengals have scored 71 second half points this year.

 

This statistic is extraordinarily HORRIBLE but it gets worse.  In seven of those games(58%) the team scored ZERO points in the 3rd quarter.  

Bad?? It gets worse.   Of the 5 games we scored third quarter points it breaks down like this:

 

3 vs 4-8 Texans (we lost)

10 vs 0-12 Browns (won)

7 vs 3-9 Colts (won by 1 point)

7 vs 0-12 Browns (won)

3 vs 10-2 Stealers (lost )

 

In 12 games we have scored 30 third quarter points.   27 of those points are against teams with a combined 7-41 record (gotta count Browns twice)

Of all the points this team has scored this year only 12.6% have come in the third quarter.

 

To summarize only 29.8% of our points scored have come in the second half.  This alone should be reason to fire Marvin. 

 

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, fluhartz said:

and good stuff SF2... but we didn't need this to know that ole marv is garbage...:P

I am just waiting for Fred to explain how awesome Marvin's halftime adjustments were in 2013 against the Patriots.  (The 4th quarter monsoon game)

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2 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

Any idea how this compares to NFL average?  I mean I'm sure it's bad, but how bad...

We are 3rd to last in 3rd quarter points scored in the league.   

2.5 per game vs 7.7 for league leading Rams.

 

We are 2nd to last in 4th quarter points scored in the leagu

3.4 per game vs 9.2 for league leading Seahawks.   BTW, the 3rd to last team is a full 1.1 points higher than us,.that is how bad we are.  

 

Yes, we suck in the second half. 

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In reality, there are really no "halftime adjustments"... it's all in game management. Listening to Pat Kirwan on Sirius the other day and here is an interesting fact;

 

Last week, every team that was winning going into halftime won... with the exception of the Titans (tied 10-10 and they won) and we were the only ones to lose.

This stat holds true 90% of the time for the NFL over time (or something very close to that).

 

In game management is what an NFL head coach, is supposed to be good at to keep their job. Obviously Lewis isn't... as we all know.

 

Yet another "puzzling" reason that he should be terminated (long ago) and Mike Brown gives further evidence that the only thing he cares about is his bank balance.

Anyone who even wants to argue with this is obviously on the Brown payroll or taking pegging lessons from Katie.

 

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1 hour ago, T-Dub said:

 

To answer my own question, it appears we are dead friggin last.  27th last year.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/2nd-half-points-per-game

Not only are we last, we are last by a wide margin.  Indy is second to last at 6.5,.we are at 5.9 points in the second half.  The Eagles score almost 10 points more per game in the second half than us. 

 

BTW, that site is awesome.  One stat I looked at was Rushing yards per attempt.  Stats go all the way back to 2003 conveniently.  The Bengals have, only once in 10 years, broken the top half in the league in Rushing yards per attempt.  10 years and only once? In most years we are in the 20s. 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, SF2 said:

LOL, 2nd half points are sooo overrated. 

 

If an offensive coordinator repeated a play, we would come in and pay him anyway. We have yet to see one of those guys repeat a play.

 

edit - just in case people read this and get super confused, I've been quoting Marvin in this thread and this gem was his response to someone asking if teams make halftime adjustments. This was right before he called adjustments "journalistic jargon"

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47 minutes ago, SF2 said:

Not only are we last, we are last by a wide margin.  Indy is second to last at 6.5,.we are at 5.9 points in the second half.  The Eagles score almost 10 points more per game in the second half than us. 

 

BTW, that site is awesome.  One stat I looked at was Rushing yards per attempt.  Stats go all the way back to 2003 conveniently.  The Bengals have, only once in 10 years, broken the top half in the league in Rushing yards per attempt.  10 years and only once? In most years we are in the 20s. 

 

 

 

 

Confirms my suspicion that Alexander may be able to coach pass blocking (when he gets top tier talent) but he sucks at coaching run blocking.

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14 minutes ago, Jamie_B said:

Confirms my suspicion that Alexander may be able to coach pass blocking (when he gets top tier talent) but he sucks at coaching run blocking.

 

While I totally agree, and would even say our pass blocking is overrated due to scheme, I think the shitty YPC can also be partially blamed on scheme, plus the rotating-RB stuff.  Most of our OC's have been kind of pass-happy, and inclined to abandon the run.  In fact this often happens in the 2nd half of games, so all of this is probably tied together. 

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I know it held true last year and looks the same this year, but the Bengals are absolutely horrid in one touchdown games.  3-4 this year and 1-6-1 last year. If they go 4-3 instead of 1-6-1 last year, they are a playoff team. Unless down big at half, they go conservative in order to not turn the ball over and they lose close games as a result. You can see it when they get the ball inside of two minutes before halftime. While teams like the Stealers go downfield, we see if we can break off a big run or screen and then run the clock out. Stealers get three points at the end of the half last week and that ended up being the difference in the game. 

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20 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

 

While I totally agree, and would even say our pass blocking is overrated due to scheme, I think the shitty YPC can also be partially blamed on scheme, plus the rotating-RB stuff.  Most of our OC's have been kind of pass-happy, and inclined to abandon the run.  In fact this often happens in the 2nd half of games, so all of this is probably tied together. 

Keep in mind a pass happy team typically has less rushing yards per game but that is NOT the stat in question. 

 

Cold reality is this team is a terrible 2nd half team offensively.  The defense actually has decent 2nd half stats even with ole 3 and out Andy giving the other team the ball a lot.

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It's almost uncanny how bad we play in the second half. You would think that just by law of averages or even dumb luck we would not be this bad.

I know it's mostly the offense but our defense seems to be worse as well(may be a function of fatigue given our offensive failures).

When you look at this pattern, I don't know how anyone could not put this on the coaching staff.

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1 hour ago, T-Dub said:

I'm guessing a new coach is going want his own staff, but I'm wondering if people think Lazor has shown enough to earn the OC job?

I've thought a lot about this.  Considering the absolutely dramatic turnaround of the offense over the past month or so, I think the guy deserves a serious look.  Would any of us be surprised if he's given the HC job, even?  Would anyone be against it?  My only reason for trepidation is that he seems like another "quiet guy", and frankly I'm sick of quiet/chuckle-y/aw-shucks/just-play-football guys.  I want a hardass as HC, let the coordinators be the good cop. 

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1 hour ago, T-Dub said:

I'm guessing a new coach is going want his own staff, but I'm wondering if people think Lazor has shown enough to earn the OC job?

Are we not still last in the league in total offense? (Real question, I haven’t checked the stats yet.)

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