If Lewis Out, Shouldn't Andy Follow?

[|High School Harry|]

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/blogs/daugherty-blog/2017/12/18/if-lewis-is-out-shouldnt-dalton-follow/108714962/

Doc: If Lewis is out, shouldn't Dalton follow?

THE MORNING LINE

Paul Daugherty, pdaugherty@enquirer.comPublished 9:42 a.m. ET Dec. 18, 2017 | Updated 11:56 a.m. ET Dec. 18, 2017 

 

DO EVEN THE HARDEST-BITTEN OF YOUSE feel a slight sadness today, at the passing of an era? It wasn’t a great era, but it was miles from being a bad one. The strange afternoon Sunday only delayed the inevitable: Marvin Lewis will not coach the Bengals next season.

That is the way it should be. I think Lewis would agree. Ditto, Mike Brown.

Before we dig into that, let’s dig into this:

 

IT’S TIME TO MOVE ON FROM ANDY DALTON. . . Lewis and Dalton were permanently intertwined at the corner of Pretty and Good. We know what each can do, and that is to combine for the more perfect 9-7.

If you let one go, shouldn’t the other follow?

If Dalton starts and loses the last two games, his career record will be 61-46-2. Divide that by 7 seasons. It’s 8.71 wins a year. Lewis will finish 123-114-3. That’s 8.2 wins a year.

Frequent perusers of This Space know what I think of Andy. Terrific human being. He doesn’t elevate. We’re better for having him in our community. He mirrors the rest of the team. A role model. He doesn’t beat Pittsburgh. He doesn’t win playoff games. He lacks charisma. This year, he’s afraid to get hit. When the team tanks, so does he.

He’s almost too conscientious. Take charge, man. Make the offense yours.

Apologists will say the line stunk. Eifert got hurt again. The team stuck with the wrong running back. (Hill was not as good as Burkhead.) Realists will note that Dalton has been coddled since Day 1. The Bengals built an offense around him. A reason AJ McCarron hasn’t played (and according to Lewis, won’t play) is a fear that starting McCarron would break Dalton’s spirit. The Bengals would “lose him.’’

I doubt that, but if the Bengals are truly interested in attaining the proverbial Next Level, they need to do more than find another coach.

They’ve completely blown any chance to see what McCarron can do. They thought so little of him they traded him to Cleveland. Those who speculate that McCarron can’t win: Yeah? How do you know?

They need to draft a quarterback, and they need to groom that guy to be the starter by 2019, while they still have a core young enough to win.

If winning interests them.

 

BACK TO MARVIN. . .

After the 2nd-half collapse v. the Stealers, the no-show v. the Bears and the absolute lay-down at Minnesota, Lewis’ fate was sealed. All that remained was the annual Morning After meeting between Lewis and Brown, and as graceful a divorce as possible.

Well, so much for that.

I don’t know why Adam Schefter reported that Lewis had decided to step down. I don’t know why Lewis denied the report, after the 7-34 pounding. Schefter is an excellent reporter with contacts deep and wide. He’s not prone to seeing speculation as news. Besides, if he wanted a big splash, breaking a story in Cincinnati hardly qualifies. Half the country doesn’t know who coaches the Bengals. The other half doesn’t care.

(And interestingly, ESPN did not write a word about the issue after its original story appeared at about 11 AM Sunday. No backpedaling, no “we stand by our story.’’ Barely a mention of Lewis’ rebuttal.)

Lewis has always been close to the vest when it comes to his job status. So has Brown. Remember how surprised we were at that presser after the 2010 season?

No one who works inside the building wasn’t shocked at Sunday’s ESPN story. The timing was weird. Maybe Lewis wanted to stick it to ownership for greasing his skids by allowing his offensive line to disintegrate. Doubtful.

It’s all mechanics, regardless. How Lewis leaves makes no difference.   

15 years is a few lifetimes in the NFL. Lewis got tired, his message fell asleep. He wasn’t up for another re-boot, even if it had been offered, which it won’t be now. In 2010, the awful 4-12 t.ocho season, Lewis left the Morning After meeting believing he had resigned. Brown called him a little later in the day and asked him to come back in. The marriage endured 7 more seasons.

The Bengals of 2015 were the Reds of 2012. One year of bottled lightning.

Now, then. . .

 

FOUTS AND EAGLE WERE BAD. . . For the first time in almost 30 years, I didn’t attend a Bengals roadie when I had nothing else to do, i.e. an Ohio State bowl or playoff game, or vacation days to kill. I watched the TV broadcast. Fouts might as well have been reading poetry. If he were any less interested, he’d have been locked in a bare room watching C-SPAN. Eagle didn’t seem to be aware of the ESPN report. The pair made no mention of it the entire 1st half. Incredible.

[fredtoast]

If you believe this logic then we have to get rid of Geno Atkins and AJ Green also.

[omgdrdoom]

25 minutes ago, High School Harry said:

1. They’ve completely blown any chance to see what McCarron can do. They thought so little of him they traded him to Cleveland. Those who speculate that McCarron can’t win: Yeah? How do you know?

2. They need to draft a quarterback, and they need to groom that guy to be the starter by 2019, while they still have a core young enough to win.

If winning interests them.

3. The Bengals of 2015 were the Reds of 2012. One year of bottled lightning.

1. I know because I've watched him play football in the NFL 

 

2. That's all fine and dandy and I'm OK with drafting a QB this year but if you think this team is just a QB away from competing then I have a bridge to sell ya.

 

3. We were one of very few teams to make the playoffs every year from 2011 - 2015. That's hardly "one year of bottled lightning". I'm as pissed as the next guy that we never managed a single playoff win out of that, but you can't ignore the team's success to make some of these wild claims.

[fredtoast]

32 minutes ago, High School Harry said:

Those who speculate that McCarron can’t win: Yeah? How do you know?

 

Because we all saw him play with a ton of talent around him and he could never beat a team that went better than 5-11.

 

 

[|kennethmw|]

Guys, it's Doc.  He's the Rush limpberger of Cincinnati sports writers.  I wouldn't line a birdcage with his articles for fear that my parrot would become a Dodo Bird!

[Hooky]

11 minutes ago, kennethmw said:

Guys, it's Doc.  He's the Rush limpberger of Cincinnati sports writers.  I wouldn't line a birdcage with his articles for fear that my parrot would become a Dodo Bird!

Exactly. I didn't read it, but will reply to the hypothetical. IF Marvin goes (I won't believe it until a new coach has a contract), it should be up to him. New coach, new system, which would center around the QB. Hopefully MB will dump Andy's contract if the new coach wants a new QB, but that is probably the major obstacle.

[omgdrdoom]

6 minutes ago, Hooky said:

Exactly. I didn't read it, but will reply to the hypothetical. IF Marvin goes (I won't believe it until a new coach has a contract), it should be up to him. New coach, new system, which would center around the QB. Hopefully MB will dump Andy's contract if the new coach wants a new QB, but that is probably the major obstacle.

Andy has a huge out in his contract starting in 2018.

 

$2.4M dead cap if cut after this season.

 

$0 dead cap for the next 2 years after.

 

We pretty much have rights to Andy for a VERY cheap QB contract ($16.3, $16.3, $17.7 each year respectively) compared to most other QB contracts that aren't on their rookie deals. We also have a super easy out to cut him if and when we find his replacement. We're in a very good spot right now as far as QB goes regardless of the general narrative surrounding the team. Andy is good enough to win games with and if we find something better we can go that route very easily without any detriment to our cap.

[Hooky]

25 minutes ago, omgdrdoom said:

Andy has a huge out in his contract starting in 2018.

 

$2.4M dead cap if cut after this season.

 

$0 dead cap for the next 2 years after.

 

We pretty much have rights to Andy for a VERY cheap QB contract ($16.3, $16.3, $17.7 each year respectively) compared to most other QB contracts that aren't on their rookie deals. We also have a super easy out to cut him if and when we find his replacement. We're in a very good spot right now as far as QB goes regardless of the general narrative surrounding the team. Andy is good enough to win games with and if we find something better we can go that route very easily without any detriment to our cap.

Thanks for the numbers. I wasn't sure how his contract would factor in the decision to move on to a new QB. 

 

I agree and think it's obvious that we can win with Andy. Unfortunately, we'll never know what could've been in 2015 if he didn't break his thumb. If we get a new coach and he wants to move on from Andy, that's fine. But I don't see how fans and writers can make a decision based on his play this season, with a shoddy line and no running game, I don't know how one would expect any better from him. I wasn't a fan of drafting him and would love to have a new QB and a fresh start, but that doesn't mean that I don't think we can win with Andy if they fix the line and the one-dimensional offense.

[omgdrdoom]

10 minutes ago, Hooky said:

Thanks for the numbers. I wasn't sure how his contract would factor in the decision to move on to a new QB. 

 

I agree and think it's obvious that we can win with Andy. Unfortunately, we'll never know what could've been in 2015 if he didn't break his thumb. If we get a new coach and he wants to move on from Andy, that's fine. But I don't see how fans and writers can make a decision based on his play this season, with a shoddy line and no running game, I don't know how one would expect any better from him. I wasn't a fan of drafting him and would love to have a new QB and a fresh start, but that doesn't mean that I don't think we can win with Andy if they fix the line and the one-dimensional offense.

My ideal scenario - 

 

New coach, some new assistants and whatnot. If you can't get Rosen and don't love Jackson (GTFO Baker Mayfield), spend the first few rounds fixing the line/LB/S positions. Grab a QB in the later rounds like the senior from Virginia. Roll into 2018 with a healthy team and see what this core of players can do and see if you can get Benkert (or whoever) ready for the pros the next season where we can dump Andy and use that money to bring Dunlap, Atkins, and whoever else you'd like back to the team.

 

2019 you have an assumed improved line, Mixon/Gio still here, Green with at least 1 of the young WRs developed into a good starter, WJIII with starting experience and Dre Kirk hopefully back to 2016 form, some new blood at LB/S, and a coaching staff that has had a year to settle in. You either start the QB you took in the 2018 draft and got ready for the NFL or you take the top QB on the board in 2019.

[LostInDaJungle]

Doesn't this logic go all the way down....

If Lewis is out, shouldn't Burfict follow?

If Lewis is out, shouldn't AJ Green follow?

 

If Lewis is out, shouldn't Geno Atkins follow?

If Lewis is out, shouldn't Carlos Dunlap follow?




Let's say I go down this rabbit hole of middle aged rage... Where does it stop? 

Ok, Andy's average. Burfict can't keep on the field with his style of play. Green drops too many and disappears in big games.  .... Hours later .... And Gatorade kid #3 always makes it to watery. Fire the groundskeeper too. That grass is .500 all the way.

Hate to break it to you Doc, but you're going the wrong direction. The club is rotting from the head down.

[LostInDaJungle]

21 minutes ago, Hooky said:

I don't see how fans and writers can make a decision based on his play this season, with a shoddy line and no running game

After having his O Coord fired in week 2. Playing for a coach that was already packing his bags in the offseason...

Sure, get rid of Dalton. It's easy to find a mediocre QB and 1st round rookies are always a sure bet. Just ask Cleveland.

[Hooky]

10 minutes ago, omgdrdoom said:

My ideal scenario - 

 

New coach, some new assistants and whatnot. If you can't get Rosen and don't love Jackson (GTFO Baker Mayfield), spend the first few rounds fixing the line/LB/S positions. Grab a QB in the later rounds like the senior from Virginia. Roll into 2018 with a healthy team and see what this core of players can do and see if you can get Benkert (or whoever) ready for the pros the next season where we can dump Andy and use that money to bring Dunlap, Atkins, and whoever else you'd like back to the team.

 

2019 you have an assumed improved line, Mixon/Gio still here, Green with at least 1 of the young WRs developed into a good starter, WJIII with starting experience and Dre Kirk hopefully back to 2016 form, some new blood at LB/S, and a coaching staff that has had a year to settle in. You either start the QB you took in the 2018 draft and got ready for the NFL or you take the top QB on the board in 2019.

Sounds good. You're hired.

[fredtoast]

Even with a drop off the last couple of games Dalton has a 94.7 passer rating, 21 tds, and only 7 ints since Lazor took over for Zampese as OC.

 

Not elite numbers, but considering we have a terrible run game and sketchy pass protection they are pretty good.

[Hooky]

8 minutes ago, LostInDaJungle said:

After having his O Coord fired in week 2. Playing for a coach that was already packing his bags in the offseason...

Sure, get rid of Dalton. It's easy to find a mediocre QB and 1st round rookies are always a sure bet. Just ask Cleveland.

As I've been saying, Cleveland's QB problem could be scouting and/or developing, but the starting QBs are on such a short leash that they never know what they have. They need to give Kizer, or the next one, two or three years with the same OC. And if we get a new QB, we need to do the same thing. And pick a solid prospect to begin with. We could have drafted plan Bs when we drafted Andy and threaten him with the backup and have the same problems as the turds. Eternal QB competition is killing them.

[LostInDaJungle]

1 minute ago, Hooky said:

We could have drafted plan Bs when we drafted Andy and threaten him with the backup and have the same problems as the turds.

All I know is that I remember the 90's. When Carson was here, he wasn't good enough. Andy's here, and he's not good enough. Dollars to donuts, the next guy isn't going to be good enough. McCarron is an unproven guy who is most likely a UFA in the offseason and we're talking about ditching Dalton? 

[Hooky]

31 minutes ago, LostInDaJungle said:

All I know is that I remember the 90's. When Carson was here, he wasn't good enough. Andy's here, and he's not good enough. Dollars to donuts, the next guy isn't going to be good enough. McCarron is an unproven guy who is most likely a UFA in the offseason and we're talking about ditching Dalton? 

I'm with you. We are not going to have a good enough QB in everybody's eyes until one wins a Super Bowl or at least goes to one. Look at Boomer. What would his legacy be if he never took his team to the Super Bowl?

[turningpoint]

Ive the bengals somehow get a top 5 draft pick, I really think they should consider trading Dalton and McCarron(if he is still here).

 

Hell It would be even better if they traded them to a QB Hungry team for 2nd round draft picks, it would just make our odds of getting one of the top 2 QB's even better.

 

Would be awesome if the browns bit on trading McCarron and our #1 pick for their #1pick.

[HavePityPlease]

1 hour ago, LostInDaJungle said:

All I know is that I remember the 90's. When Carson was here, he wasn't good enough. Andy's here, and he's not good enough. Dollars to donuts, the next guy isn't going to be good enough. McCarron is an unproven guy who is most likely a UFA in the offseason and we're talking about ditching Dalton? 

People who think this way believe the only way to win the SB is to get Tom Brady 2.0, and the only way to do it is draft a first round QB every year until you have him.  They think in terms of Madden (video game) results rather than real life.

 

Case in point...

 

Quote

Ive the bengals somehow get a top 5 draft pick, I really think they should consider trading Dalton and McCarron(if he is still here).

 

Hell It would be even better if they traded them to a QB Hungry team for 2nd round draft picks, it would just make our odds of getting one of the top 2 QB's even better.

 

Would be awesome if the browns bit on trading McCarron and our #1 pick for their #1pick.

 

Andy Dalton can win you a SB - if you figure out how to get his mentality straight.  The only thing between him and a playoff win has been his own mind.  That can be true for any QB no matter how talented they are, and it's a lot harder to fix than a drop step or a release point.  There is a small handful of QBs that can will a team to a win, and several teams have won a SB without one.  Hell, if we had such a guy and the rest of the team stunk, these same people would likely complain that the guy is keeping us from a better draft pick (see guys like Rivers, who always buys the Chargers more wins than they deserve).

[|OneHeartBeat|]

14 minutes ago, HavePityPlease said:

People who think this way believe the only way to win the SB is to get Tom Brady 2.0, and the only way to do it is draft a first round QB every year until you have him.  They think in terms of Madden (video game) results rather than real life.

 

Case in point...

 

 

Andy Dalton can win you a SB - if you figure out how to get his mentality straight.  The only thing between him and a playoff win has been his own mind.  That can be true for any QB no matter how talented they are, and it's a lot harder to fix than a drop step or a release point.  There is a small handful of QBs that can will a team to a win, and several teams have won a SB without one.  Hell, if we had such a guy and the rest of the team stunk, these same people would likely complain that the guy is keeping us from a better draft pick (see guys like Rivers, who always buys the Chargers more wins than they deserve).

I think you can win with him, but you have to improve this Oline. Piss poor pass protection and the inability to run the ball screams Oline issues to me. Whoever posted about Billy Price being a player who could turn this thing around is spot on. Ced and Fisher are busts. If we can make improvements to the Oline in FA and draft Price, I think the offense will improve dramatically. We need a healthy Eifert, or it's time to move on. Defensively, we are aging on the Dline, but I think Lawson is a future star. With the exception of Burfict, our LB's are garbage. This area seems to be one that never changes. I think Jackson has a good future in the secondary. I don't see us that far off IMO, but the key to success is the line. I'm not sure we're at the blow it up point, but that's just my opinion.

[omgdrdoom]

24 minutes ago, HavePityPlease said:

Andy Dalton can win you a SB - if you figure out how to get his mentality straight.  The only thing between him and a playoff win has been his own mind. 

And other players fumbling, and receivers dropping timely passes, and some questionable coaching decisions, and the defense forgetting how to cover a TE, and our entire offense being injured, and our defense not defending against the run at the worst possible times, and letting 3rd string QBs score points, and all of our "elite" players refusing to show up, and our bonehead players doing bonehead shit, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

 

How do people watch all of those playoff games and come to the conclusion that the "only" thing between Andy and playoff win was his mind? I don't get it whatsoever.

[|Numbers|]

4 hours ago, kennethmw said:

Guys, it's Doc.  He's the Rush limpberger of Cincinnati sports writers.  I wouldn't line a birdcage with his articles for fear that my parrot would become a Dodo Bird!

I have not read an article with his name listed as an author for a very long time until today.   This guy needs to go back to school and pay attention this time.   He's been a douche bag forever and I don't expect he'll change anytime soon.   How he still has a job is unfathomable...  

[HavePityPlease]

1 hour ago, omgdrdoom said:

And other players fumbling, and receivers dropping timely passes, and some questionable coaching decisions, and the defense forgetting how to cover a TE, and our entire offense being injured, and our defense not defending against the run at the worst possible times, and letting 3rd string QBs score points, and all of our "elite" players refusing to show up, and our bonehead players doing bonehead shit, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

 

How do people watch all of those playoff games and come to the conclusion that the "only" thing between Andy and playoff win was his mind? I don't get it whatsoever.

Well, I didn't say "every loss the Bengals had in the playoffs came down to Andy's mind", but at least two were Andy IMO.  Thus, of those two, his mind beat him and he would have at least one playoff win if he'd shown up mentally.

[CincyInDC]

5 hours ago, Hooky said:

I'm with you. We are not going to have a good enough QB in everybody's eyes until one wins a Super Bowl or at least goes to one. Look at Boomer. What would his legacy be if he never took his team to the Super Bowl?

 

Even boomer admits he took the team to the super bowl on the back of the running game.  His play-action pass wasn't too shabby either, I guess. 

[fredtoast]

7 minutes ago, CincyInDC said:

 

Even boomer admits he took the team to the super bowl on the back of the running game.  His play-action pass wasn't too shabby either, I guess. 

Most people will not believe this, but Dalton's postseason stats are better than Boomers '88 post season stats.

[CincyInDC]

You sound like fucking clickbait, Fred.