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Super Bowl XV: Wild-Card Raiders Go The Distance

The Raiders became the first Wild Card playoff team to win a Super Bowl with a 27-10 win over the Philadelphia Eagles after the 1980 season.

 

I remember watching this Super Bowl in 1980.  The one thing this team had was a quarterback named Jim Plunkett who had a heart that beat and played to win.  Even when

the odds where stacked against him.  However this was no ordinary wildcard team.  They had a 11-5 winning record in which most division champions would like to have had.

So to lose a game that you should win is never a small thing.  The Bengals have crash landed and are never going to take flight again.  Mindless men who cannot engineer to win.

 

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To start with it is safe to say that in most years there are one or two teams competing for a wild card spot with 10 wins and 6 lose.  Sometimes there are three teams with 10 win records.  Some years there are teams with 11 and 5 win records competing for a wild card spot, but this is very rare.  And almost never is there two teams during the same season with 11 and 5 records competing for a wild card spot.  In which for each conference of the AFC and NFC you have two wild card spots each, and four wildcard spots in all.  In a normal season the team with a 10 win and 6 lose record will almost always win a wildcard spot.  If there are three teams competing your odds are 66 percent or one out of three that you are going to make the playoffs as a wild card team.  In most seasons one team with have a 10 win record and the other team will have a 9 win record.  However the less wins you have the more teams you will be competing against for a wildcard spot.  This is a very good rule of thumb to keep in mind.  In most season there will be one team with a 10 win record and three or four teams with a 9 win record.  So to predict the teams who will win a wild card spot check off those who are likely to finish with an 11-5 or 10-6 as in the playoffs.  Mark those teams that are likely to finish at 9 wins and 7 loses as a tie breaker with three other teams.  Winning a tie breaker is a thing of luck.  It depends on variable factors in which the NFL will figure out.  Mainly of those four teams in the hunt at 9 wins and 7 loses, which of those 9 and 7 teams has your team you defeated or lost to during that season.  If you lost to one of them you are likely out of the playoffs.  If you never played against any of them then there are other variables to judge as who will win the tie breaker among the 9 win and 7 lose teams. 

So to casually predict wildcard winners you can say that if you have 11 wins you are for sure in.  If you have 10 wins you are likely in.  If you have 9 wins you have a one in four chance of winning a wild card spot.  But what about a team with 8 wins and 8 loses?  As we have said the less wins you have the more teams you will compete against for the second wild card spot.  So an 8 win and 8 lose team is likely to compete with at least 5 other teams for that wild card spot.  Meaning that you have a 1 in 5 chance of making the playoffs as a wildcard team.  Lets' study another factor that plays out with this.

One of the main factors that plays out with how many wins are needed for a wild card spot is this rule as follows:  What is the total number of wins of those teams that have won the division in one of the two conferences.  Let us say that The Average win of those division winners is 14 wins per team.  You have four divisions in the AFC so the average is 14 times 4 division winners.  That equals a total of 56 wins in which they beat out of the rest of the teams in the NFL  If you add that will the NFC teams that would be twice the number which is 112 wins in eight total division champions.  The more wins the division champions have for the season, the rule of thumb is the less wins the wildcard teams are required to have.  However let us say that the average number of wins for all 8 divisions winners is 12 games.  The total number of wins is 96.  So that means there are 16 additional wins out there for the wildcard teams.  So the rule of thumb is the lower the average number of wins for the division champions the more wins to make a wildcard spot shall be required.  So if it is a year that many of the teams have 13 to 15 wins during the season, you could make a wild card team with as little as 8 wins.  However if it is a year in which the division winners have won between 11 games and 13 on that season, it will likely take at least 10 wins for a wild card spot.  This is a very casual way of thinking to predict if your team has a chance of making the playoffs as a wild card team.

So let's draw up a scale of wins:  Lets say that if 14 which is a high number is the average win of the division champions 9 wins is a good number for a wild card spot.  10 wins is a for sure thing.  Now let us say that the average wins is 13 for the division winners which is a normal season.  During a normal season you will likely need at least 9 to 11 wins for a wildcard spot.  But let us say that the average drops to an abnormal season in which the division champions of all eight teams have only an average win among them of 12 wins and 4 loses for the season.  That means there are a lot more wins out there for the other teams who did not win the division.  So our scale of 12 for the average says that it will take at least 10 wins for a wild card spot and maybe even 11 wins.  Likely there will be at least 4 teams with 10 win records  and one or two teams with 11 win records competing for a wild card spot.

 

So now the prediction gets simple:  You say will a lot of teams have 13 or more wins we could get in the playoffs with only 9 wins and possible with only 8 wins but it is a long shot.  If we have 10 wins this season we should win a wildcard spot.  You say these teams only have an average of 12 wins it may take us at least 10 wins to make the wildcard and maybe even 11 wins.  On the other side you say the top eight teams have an average of 15 wins.  What a season.  That is unreal and high.  The division winners stole all of the wins from the rest of the teams, they have fished out everything.  That means we could get in the play offs with as little as 8 wins or maybe even as little as 7 wins.  What a very rare season.

 

But on the average and what is most common for all seasons you will need 9 or 10 wins for the hope of a wildcard spot and even then you will need to win the tie breakers with the other teams.  That is the most predictable out come of all seasons.  So at the beginning of an average season you know that you will need at least 9 wins for a wildcard spot and 10 wins will get you in the playoffs for sure during most season.  11 wins is a guarantee for a playoff birth.  8 wins really means that luck is on your side and a lot of luck.  7 wins say it will never happen and if it dose say I can't believe we are in.  Say we made the playoffs with a losing record of less than .500.  Has that every happened before?  Here is your answer:  It has happened 3 times: The 2010 Seahawks with a 7 win and 9 lose record (The worst record ever to make the playoffs), the 1982 Cleveland Browns with an 8 win 8 lose record, and the 2004 Saint Louis Rams with a record of 8 wins and 8 loses.  So during these years the divisions winners won at least 14 games each on average.  Some of them may have won 15 and 16 games.  A 16 game season is a perfect season in which The New England Patriots or was it the In. Colts who won 16 regular season games.

 

So this is something to chew on.  Play hard for 9 wins and likely you might get lucky.  10 wins and most of the time you are in.  7 wins some might say only in Seattle.  So what about those 2018 Bengals.  They lost to the Cleveland Browns at home just last week with a score of 20 to 35 and for the most part have lost the season.  I will say that this year 9 wins for a wildcard spot and win the tie breaker.  It looks like that The Chargers will win at least 10 games this season and a wildcard spot while the Chiefs win the their division.  Then the Ravens are in a good position for the second wildcard spot with 6 wins and 5 loses.  Things just do not look so good for the Bengals who have lost 3 straight games against The Saints, The Ravens, and The Browns.  The Bengals have 5 games remaining and they need 5 wins to finish with 10 wins all together.  It is not likely to happen.  This season the average win is beginning to shape up as about 13 and a half for all 8 teams that will enter the playoffs as division winners.  The Ravens have jumped out a head of the Bengals with likely a couple other teams with records of 6 wins and 5 loses.  The Bengals have really slipped over the last three weeks and tell how can things seem to get any better.  They can't win against the top rank teams such as the Chiefs, the Stealers, The Saints, The Panthers, and they just lost to one of the lower ranking teams in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns.

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49 minutes ago, StartMeUp SMU said:

To start with it is safe to say that in most years there are one or two teams competing for a wild card spot with 10 wins and 6 lose.  Sometimes there are three teams with 10 win records.  Some years there are teams with 11 and 5 win records competing for a wild card spot, but this is very rare.  And almost never is there two teams during the same season with 11 and 5 records competing for a wild card spot.  In which for each conference of the AFC and NFC you have two wild card spots each, and four wildcard spots in all.  In a normal season the team with a 10 win and 6 lose record will almost always win a wildcard spot.  If there are three teams competing your odds are 66 percent or one out of three that you are going to make the playoffs as a wild card team.  In most seasons one team with have a 10 win record and the other team will have a 9 win record.  However the less wins you have the more teams you will be competing against for a wildcard spot.  This is a very good rule of thumb to keep in mind.  In most season there will be one team with a 10 win record and three or four teams with a 9 win record.  So to predict the teams who will win a wild card spot check off those who are likely to finish with an 11-5 or 10-6 as in the playoffs.  Mark those teams that are likely to finish at 9 wins and 7 loses as a tie breaker with three other teams.  Winning a tie breaker is a thing of luck.  It depends on variable factors in which the NFL will figure out.  Mainly of those four teams in the hunt at 9 wins and 7 loses, which of those 9 and 7 teams has your team you defeated or lost to during that season.  If you lost to one of them you are likely out of the playoffs.  If you never played against any of them then there are other variables to judge as who will win the tie breaker among the 9 win and 7 lose teams. 

So to casually predict wildcard winners you can say that if you have 11 wins you are for sure in.  If you have 10 wins you are likely in.  If you have 9 wins you have a one in four chance of winning a wild card spot.  But what about a team with 8 wins and 8 loses?  As we have said the less wins you have the more teams you will compete against for the second wild card spot.  So an 8 win and 8 lose team is likely to compete with at least 5 other teams for that wild card spot.  Meaning that you have a 1 in 5 chance of making the playoffs as a wildcard team.  Lets' study another factor that plays out with this.

One of the main factors that plays out with how many wins are needed for a wild card spot is this rule as follows:  What is the total number of wins of those teams that have won the division in one of the two conferences.  Let us say that The Average win of those division winners is 14 wins per team.  You have four divisions in the AFC so the average is 14 times 4 division winners.  That equals a total of 56 wins in which they beat out of the rest of the teams in the NFL  If you add that will the NFC teams that would be twice the number which is 112 wins in eight total division champions.  The more wins the division champions have for the season, the rule of thumb is the less wins the wildcard teams are required to have.  However let us say that the average number of wins for all 8 divisions winners is 12 games.  The total number of wins is 96.  So that means there are 16 additional wins out there for the wildcard teams.  So the rule of thumb is the lower the average number of wins for the division champions the more wins to make a wildcard spot shall be required.  So if it is a year that many of the teams have 13 to 15 wins during the season, you could make a wild card team with as little as 8 wins.  However if it is a year in which the division winners have won between 11 games and 13 on that season, it will likely take at least 10 wins for a wild card spot.  This is a very casual way of thinking to predict if your team has a chance of making the playoffs as a wild card team.

So let's draw up a scale of wins:  Lets say that if 14 which is a high number is the average win of the division champions 9 wins is a good number for a wild card spot.  10 wins is a for sure thing.  Now let us say that the average wins is 13 for the division winners which is a normal season.  During a normal season you will likely need at least 9 to 11 wins for a wildcard spot.  But let us say that the average drops to an abnormal season in which the division champions of all eight teams have only an average win among them of 12 wins and 4 loses for the season.  That means there are a lot more wins out there for the other teams who did not win the division.  So our scale of 12 for the average says that it will take at least 10 wins for a wild card spot and maybe even 11 wins.  Likely there will be at least 4 teams with 10 win records  and one or two teams with 11 win records competing for a wild card spot.

 

So now the prediction gets simple:  You say will a lot of teams have 13 or more wins we could get in the playoffs with only 9 wins and possible with only 8 wins but it is a long shot.  If we have 10 wins this season we should win a wildcard spot.  You say these teams only have an average of 12 wins it may take us at least 10 wins to make the wildcard and maybe even 11 wins.  On the other side you say the top eight teams have an average of 15 wins.  What a season.  That is unreal and high.  The division winners stole all of the wins from the rest of the teams, they have fished out everything.  That means we could get in the play offs with as little as 8 wins or maybe even as little as 7 wins.  What a very rare season.

 

But on the average and what is most common for all seasons you will need 9 or 10 wins for the hope of a wildcard spot and even then you will need to win the tie breakers with the other teams.  That is the most predictable out come of all seasons.  So at the beginning of an average season you know that you will need at least 9 wins for a wildcard spot and 10 wins will get you in the playoffs for sure during most season.  11 wins is a guarantee for a playoff birth.  8 wins really means that luck is on your side and a lot of luck.  7 wins say it will never happen and if it dose say I can't believe we are in.  Say we made the playoffs with a losing record of less than .500.  Has that every happened before?  Here is your answer:  It has happened 3 times: The 2010 Seahawks with a 7 win and 9 lose record (The worst record ever to make the playoffs), the 1982 Cleveland Browns with an 8 win 8 lose record, and the 2004 Saint Louis Rams with a record of 8 wins and 8 loses.  So during these years the divisions winners won at least 14 games each on average.  Some of them may have won 15 and 16 games.  A 16 game season is a perfect season in which The New England Patriots or was it the In. Colts who won 16 regular season games.

 

So this is something to chew on.  Play hard for 9 wins and likely you might get lucky.  10 wins and most of the time you are in.  7 wins some might say only in Seattle.  So what about those 2018 Bengals.  They lost to the Cleveland Browns at home just last week with a score of 20 to 35 and for the most part have lost the season.  I will say that this year 9 wins for a wildcard spot and win the tie breaker.  It looks like that The Chargers will win at least 10 games this season and a wildcard spot while the Chiefs win the their division.  Then the Ravens are in a good position for the second wildcard spot with 6 wins and 5 loses.  Things just do not look so good for the Bengals who have lost 3 straight games against The Saints, The Ravens, and The Browns.  The Bengals have 5 games remaining and they need 5 wins to finish with 10 wins all together.  It is not likely to happen.  This season the average win is beginning to shape up as about 13 and a half for all 8 teams that will enter the playoffs as division winners.  The Ravens have jumped out a head of the Bengals with likely a couple other teams with records of 6 wins and 5 loses.  The Bengals have really slipped over the last three weeks and tell how can things seem to get any better.  They can't win against the top rank teams such as the Chiefs, the Stealers, The Saints, The Panthers, and they just lost to one of the lower ranking teams in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns.

Da fuq?

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On 11/26/2018 at 6:12 PM, StartMeUp SMU said:

Super Bowl XV: Wild-Card Raiders Go The Distance

The Raiders became the first Wild Card playoff team to win a Super Bowl with a 27-10 win over the Philadelphia Eagles after the 1980 season.

 

I remember watching this Super Bowl in 1980.  The one thing this team had was a quarterback named Jim Plunkett who had a heart that beat and played to win.  Even when

the odds where stacked against him.  However this was no ordinary wildcard team.  They had a 11-5 winning record in which most division champions would like to have had.

So to lose a game that you should win is never a small thing.  The Bengals have crash landed and are never going to take flight again.  Mindless men who cannot engineer to win.

 

Are you DHS on YouTube?

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29 minutes ago, Catfish Bob said:

Lol it was me. I got massive thumbs and always be hitting buttons I don't mean too. 

LOL....it's cool.  I took typing in high school, and typed all thru college and been using computers at work since the IBM 8088's.  I build my own computers now and I still hunt and peck when I type.

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1 hour ago, westside bengal said:

LOL....it's cool.  I took typing in high school, and typed all thru college and been using computers at work since the IBM 8088's.  I build my own computers now and I still hunt and peck when I type.

8088 with dual  5 1/4s  baby.  Even added ram to take if from 512kb to 640kb ram for Autocad.  10 meg hard drive.  $1,100. 

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