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Compensatory picks are out

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So we have 4 picks total in the 6th round? Meh,  2 LB and 2 OL, they can't all  be misses can they?

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9 minutes ago, gupps said:

So we have 4 picks total in the 6th round? Meh,  2 LB and 2 OL, they can't all  be misses can they?

5 ?   I thought I read that we also have a 6th round pick from another team (Dallas?).  

 

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So maybe we need to change our thinking on the comp pick stuff as we receive 6th rounders and Rams Pats Ravens and other teams active in free agency are receiving 2 3rd rounders

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2 hours ago, CalifBengalfan said:

So maybe we need to change our thinking on the comp pick stuff as we receive 6th rounders and Rams Pats Ravens and other teams active in free agency are receiving 2 3rd rounders

 

We just need to lose better players to free agency.  🤔

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, Cricket said:

5 ?   I thought I read that we also have a 6th round pick from another team (Dallas?).  

 

 

correct.jpg

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13 hours ago, gupps said:

So we have 4 picks total in the 6th round? Meh,  2 LB and 2 OL, they can't all  be misses can they?

In the 6th round? Brady aside, yeah. Lucky to get 1 starter out of those picks. Then again we haven't exactly struck gold in the 1st round lately so who knows?

 

 

Certainly plenty of opportunity for a guy to make this roster, to put it nicely.

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3 hours ago, T-Dub said:

In the 6th round? Brady aside, yeah. Lucky to get 1 starter out of those picks. Then again we haven't exactly struck gold in the 1st round lately so who knows?

 

 

Certainly plenty of opportunity for a guy to make this roster, to put it nicely.

Yep, pretty accurate assessment.  We have seen the draft pick value chart but that doesn't actually tell you how players picked at different points played during their careers.  Here is a link that will show how players chosen at different points of the draft have fared on average in their first 5 years which is cool since that is the longest a team can have complete control.  Chart goes from 1994 to 2013.   The reality is those comp picks are not very valuable unless you are lucky enough to get one of the outliers.  This is actually a very good article about the draft in general and that most GMs are not better than the next when it comes to drafting.  Player development and picking up mid tier FAs to fill holes is far more important. 

 

The other interesting thing in this article is that the well known "Jimmy Johnson" chart that shows how much each draft pick is valued (we have seen it on this site many times) FAR overweights early picks based on cost and performance. Drafting at 32 is better than drafting at 1 since you are a paying far less to get a probable starter based on position and can use the extra money to pick up a proven mid tier FA.  The difference in 4 year cost between 1 and 32 in this year's draft is $24mil over 4 years.  You can certainly pick up a pretty good FA with $24 mil over 4 years.  

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

 

Side note, do not copy and paste copyrighted content on this site.  Linking to the actual site works fine since it give the author what they want, clicks. 

 

 

 

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We currently have picks:

11

42

73

111

150

184

200

212

213

215

225

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7 hours ago, SF2 said:

Good article. The 2 biggest takeaways:

 

1) You (the GM) are not as smart as you think  you are.

 

2) The house (draft) never loses.

 

It's all a crap shoot. I'd rather be lucky then good. OK thats 3 things.

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1 hour ago, gupps said:

Good article. The 2 biggest takeaways:

 

1) You (the GM) are not as smart as you think  you are.

 

2) The house (draft) never loses.

 

It's all a crap shoot. I'd rather be lucky then good. OK thats 3 things.

 

Some teams still draft better than others.  Like in craps, you can still learn to be good at it. We need people evaluating talent that don't get caught up in all the hype over, eg, someone's 40 time.

 

Seems to me a team serious about winning would put heavy emphasis on having the best draft scouting department possible.  The Bengals, on the other hand, have the smallest.  Of course that doesn't automatically make them the worst, but considering the busts that have come through here lately it sure seems like an area they need to invest more in if they're to be taken seriously. 

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25 minutes ago, T-Dub said:

 

Some teams still draft better than others.  Like in craps, you can still learn to be good at it. We need people evaluating talent that don't get caught up in all the hype over, eg, someone's 40 time.

 

Seems to me a team serious about winning would put heavy emphasis on having the best draft scouting department possible.  The Bengals, on the other hand, have the smallest.  Of course that doesn't automatically make them the worst, but considering the busts that have come through here lately it sure seems like an area they need to invest more in if they're to be taken seriously. 

In my opinion unless you are drafting a QB or there is a can't miss DE or OT,  drafting in the top 10 is a waste of money.  You are better off trading down and getting 1 pick lower and an FA with the saved money.   New England never picks high yet they seem to fill the roster with pretty good smart players. 

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1 hour ago, SF2 said:

In my opinion unless you are drafting a QB or there is a can't miss DE or OT,  drafting in the top 10 is a waste of money.  You are better off trading down and getting 1 pick lower and an FA with the saved money.   New England never picks high yet they seem to fill the roster with pretty good smart players. 

 

Probably right about drafting high, assuming someone wants to make that trade.  However I don't think it's a lack of talent that's killed us there so much as an inability to identify it.

 

As for NE..  It's like people talking about politics using someplace like Denmark as an example - NE is an outlier, they're a talented team in an incredibly weak division.  How well do you really know their roster?  What is their depth like at LB, for example?  I don't think they have some perfect roster, I think they are rarely tested outside the postseason where they are given every advantage.  When they miss on a player nobody is raking the organization over the coals for it.  I mean, their star TE shot & killed at least one guy over some gang bullshit then hung himself in prison, they've been caught cheating numerous times.. But they've got a couple of scrappy white guys the Massholes can rally behind & their image somehow never takes a hit.

 

Anyway I know you don't want to hear that the NFL is anything but a perfect meritocracy :pst-min:  but my point is that their mistakes in drafting (or otherwise) are minimized because they win a lot.  The circumstances around that winning streak are a different topic. 

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2 hours ago, T-Dub said:

 

Some teams still draft better than others.  Like in craps, you can still learn to be good at it. We need people evaluating talent that don't get caught up in all the hype over, eg, someone's 40 time.

 

Seems to me a team serious about winning would put heavy emphasis on having the best draft scouting department possible.  The Bengals, on the other hand, have the smallest.  Of course that doesn't automatically make them the worst, but considering the busts that have come through here lately it sure seems like an area they need to invest more in if they're to be taken seriously. 

Our pro personnel dept is even smaller. That's probably a good part of why the Bengals don't participate in free agency, despite having plenty of money every year.

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16 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Our pro personnel dept is even smaller. That's probably a good part of why the Bengals don't participate in free agency, despite having plenty of money every year.

 

Hard to convince anyone the franchise is about winning when they run things this way.  I guess there's some upside to having a new coaching staff more familiar with another team's roster than their own?  We shouldn't need to break the bank to poach a few of their old guys.

 

Paging @MichaelWeston

 

Available FA's tied to our new coaches?

 

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2 hours ago, T-Dub said:

 

Hard to convince anyone the franchise is about winning when they run things this way.  I guess there's some upside to having a new coaching staff more familiar with another team's roster than their own?  We shouldn't need to break the bank to poach a few of their old guys.

 

Paging @MichaelWeston

 

Available FA's tied to our new coaches?

 

Here is a doc I created (which I wouldn't mind help managing) that highlights all of the rosters and free agents. Free agents are in the middle in pink. The guys to the far right for each team are guys who were cut last preseason by the teams. They might be solid guys to bring in as well. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14m1fkLKzZxhzgoSus6RuVkrIYqHz21wbLhoZ4T_WCi8/edit?usp=sharing

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6 hours ago, T-Dub said:

 

Hard to convince anyone the franchise is about winning when they run things this way.

This is a big part of it. 

 

Mike Brown doesn't overpay for FAs unless it's his own players. With that in mind, why would a FA sign in Cincinnati?  If you can get the same $$ with a team that actually wins why be a Bengal?  Hell, they still have no indoor practice facility here!  Marvin Lewis was here how long?  You think players and agents don't know this stuff?  Yeah, maybe the new HC can bring in a player or two that he has a relationship with, but I wouldn't expect much. 

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21 hours ago, Jason said:

We currently have picks:

11

42

73

111

150

184

200

212

213

215

225

I think we should trade Fat Randy for the 214th pick and draft four kickers.

Maybe throw in John Ross to sweeten the deal.

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3 hours ago, High School Harry said:

I think we should trade Fat Randy for the 214th pick and draft four kickers.

Maybe throw in John Ross to sweeten the deal.

Have you ever watched "The League"?

 

Taco, is that you?

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17 hours ago, T-Dub said:

 

Probably right about drafting high, assuming someone wants to make that trade.  However I don't think it's a lack of talent that's killed us there so much as an inability to identify it.

 

As for NE..  It's like people talking about politics using someplace like Denmark as an example - NE is an outlier, they're a talented team in an incredibly weak division.  How well do you really know their roster?  What is their depth like at LB, for example?  I don't think they have some perfect roster, I think they are rarely tested outside the postseason where they are given every advantage.  When they miss on a player nobody is raking the organization over the coals for it.  I mean, their star TE shot & killed at least one guy over some gang bullshit then hung himself in prison, they've been caught cheating numerous times.. But they've got a couple of scrappy white guys the Massholes can rally behind & their image somehow never takes a hit.

 

Anyway I know you don't want to hear that the NFL is anything but a perfect meritocracy :pst-min:  but my point is that their mistakes in drafting (or otherwise) are minimized because they win a lot.  The circumstances around that winning streak are a different topic. 

As far as New England goes they have one of the greatest QBs if all time, Gronk who WAS a great TE and a roster full of decent starters.  The decent starters at EVERY position thing is far more important than some realize.  Add in a coach who is the best at game planning and in game adjustments and you win shit.  

 

Seriously, they had one of the best defenses the last 8 weeks using 11 good players.  They had one legitimate pro bowler on the team and that was Stephon Gilmore. Brady got in because he is Brady. 

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What we can get out of those picks is maybe some solid special teams contributors. 

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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember hearing that Belichik puts a lot of emphasis on intelligence.

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